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We have an exciting Opening Day 2025 on tap for Thursday, March 27.
Cam Smith-Astros-RF
The Astros made the announcement that 3B Cam Smith has made the roster, and the expectation is that he will play right field. He was the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker trade. Smith played in 32 games in the minors last year after getting drafted in the first round. He hit .313 with 7 HR, 20 R, 24 RBI, and 2 SB. Smith showed good plate skills (11% BB and 18% K). This spring, he hit .342 with 4 HR, 8 R, 11 RBI, and 0 SB. Despite there being a lot of optimism about him long-term, there are still concerns heading into his rookie season. He hit well in spring training, but also struck out 26% of the time and hit 48% GB. This is a profile that is not going to produce a lot in terms of fantasy because it is going to limit his power. Smith will need to hit for a high average and power because he isn't going to steal many bases. Throw in the typical adjustment period for rookies, and Smith becomes riskier than the current optimism around his 2025 fantasy outlook.
Ryan Bliss-Mariners-2B
Ryan Bliss has won the starting second base job for the Mariners. Bliss is coming off a phenomenal minor league season in which he hit .304 with 23 HR, 110 R, 86 RBI, and 55 SB in 128 GP. He showed good plate skills (10% BB and 19% K) to go along with strong quality of contact at Triple-A (43% Hardhit). This spring, he hit .308 with 0 HR, 13 R, 2 RBI, and 2 SB. His profile projects to be one of limited power (10-15 HR) with above-average speed (30+ SB), with his average being a question mark. Bliss has shown good plate skills, but his rookie season could come with a lot of strikeouts, lowering his batting average. He should still be rostered on his speed alone, but he offers more upside if he can adjust quickly to how pitchers are attacking him.
Jack Leiter-Rangers-SP
Jack Leiter is expected to start for the Rangers on Friday against the Red Sox. Leiter is coming off a healthy spring. He showed plus velocity on his fastball (98.6 mph) and an improved pitch mix. In his latest spring start, he showed a five-pitch mix (FB, CH, SL, SI, and CV). He threw four pitches over 15% of the time (FB, SL, SI, and CH), which is a big adjustment from the past, where he was very fastball-heavy. The stuff is excellent, and the Rangers seem committed to giving him a shot in the major league rotation, but his success is going to come down to his walk rate. He has struggled with control in the past and posted a 12% BB in spring training. For this to work, he is going to need to strike out 30%+ of batters or lower his walk rate. A 10% walk rate would still be high by normal standards, but would work for Leiter given his stuff and potential for strikeouts. He is worth a shot in deeper mixed leagues because if everything goes right, he could be a valuable asset, and if the walks continue, he is an easy drop.
Clay Holmes-Mets-SP
Clay Holmes' transition from reliever to starter is going to get tested right away as the Opening Day starter. The Astros' lineup lost some key pieces but still has enough to be a solid offense, so this should be a good test. Holmes had a successful spring (0.93 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 21% K:BB). Spring training stats are mostly noise, but it was good to see Holmes missing bats (32% K) and displaying a six-pitch mix. He is throwing a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, sweeper, changeup, and sinker. This is an arsenal that will allow him to work as a starter and be effective against both sides of the plate. The only real concern with Holmes at this point is how many innings the Mets are going to allow him to throw. He has not thrown above 63 IP each of the past three seasons. Michael King is a name that is commonly brought up, but he was a different case because he started nine games prior to becoming a true starter, so his innings total was higher. He went from 104.2 IP to 173.2 IP. A similar 70 IP jump would put Holmes in the 130-150 IP range, which is more than enough in today's environment.
Gavin Lux-Reds-3B
Gavin Lux is going to do a little bit of everything for the Reds. He was expected to start the season sharing 3B and DH with 1B/3B Jeimer Candelario. However, on Tuesday, Lux was in the outfield because of an injury to OF Austin Hays. The bottom line is that Lux is going to play regularly but it could be a different spot each night. This is going to help him be an asset in deeper mixed leagues due to his positional flexibility. Lux also gets a nice park upgrade moving to Great American Ballpark. He hit .251 with 10 HR, 59 R, 50 RBI, and 5 SB in 139 GP. Lux was especially good in the second half (.304 AVG with 7 HR, 31 R, 31 R, 26 RBI, and 2 SB). There was also a noticeable change in his batted ball profile. He went from hitting 54% GB in the first half to 41%. His hard contact went from 25% to 38%. Lux isn't going to live up to his prospect hype, but if he can keep these changes plus a change of scenery and Lux could be a .260 hitter with 15 HR/10 SB across a full season, which would be extremely valuable in deeper mixed leagues on top of his position flexibility.
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