Old Faces In New Places
Thairo Estrada, 2B, Rockies
Thairo Estra signed with the Rockies this offseason on a one-year contract worth $3.25 million. He was a huge disappointment in 2024, slashing just .217/.247.343 with 9 home runs and 2 stolen bases in 96 games. This was the follow-up to a 2023 season where he batted .271 with 14 homers and 23 steals. He suffered a wrist injury in May, and the injury may have stuck with him all season long. The good news is that he gets a chance to bounce back in the best place possible, Coors Field. Estrada's underlying metrics were never good to begin with, as even in 2023, he had a barrel rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and xSLG that all ranked toward the bottom of the league. However, he is above average at putting the ball in play, which plays perfectly into Coors Field. Anyone playing every day in Colorado is worth a look for fantasy, and Estrada has the chance of being a 20-20 threat if everything breaks perfectly. He has an ADP of 332, making him well worth the gamble as a last-round lottery ticket.
Joc Pederson, DH, Rangers
Joc Pederson signed with the Rangers this offseason for two years and $37 million. He had a rebound year in 2024 with the Diamondbacks, slashing .275/.393/.515 with 23 home runs, 62 runs, and 64 RBI. He is an extreme platoon player and will never play against lefties, but he absolutely rakes when he is in the lineup. His .378 xwOBA ranked in the 95th percentile, to go along with a 93rd-percentile 92.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 90th-percentile 0.480 xSLG. He even had a walk rate of 12.2%, which ranked in the top six percent of the league. Now, he'll get to hit in a loaded Rangers lineup, which will provide him with even more run and RBI opportunities. He is tough to use in weekly leagues due to his erratic playing schedule, but he is a huge value in drafts in leagues with daily lineup changes. You can bank on his elite production when he plays and sub in someone from your bench when he doesn't.
Max Kepler, OF, Phillies
Max Kepler signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Phillies this offseason. He struggled with knee issues in 2024 and slashed just .253/.302/.380 with 8 home runs in 105 games. His numbers fell off across the board, with his .381 xSLG, 6.2% barrel rate, and 36.8% hard-hit rate all being well below league average. The Phillies still decided to take a shot on him, and he'll get the chance to play every day in left field to start the season. He is not too far removed from a 2023 season where he hit 24 homers in 130 games while putting up an 89th-percentile xSLG of .503. He isn't worth drafting in standard-sized leagues, but in deeper leagues, he could be worth a late-round selection just in case he looks like the 2023 version of himself again.
Matthew Boyd, SP, Cubs
Matthew Boyd signed a two-year, $29 million contract this offseason with the Chicago Cubs. He returned from Tommy John with the Guardians last season, posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 8 starts. He struck out 46 batters in 39 innings. He had an xERA of 3.10 and a FIP of 3.29, which backs up his good performance, although it was a small sample. He'll hope to retain his excellent 27.7% strikeout rate for 2025, although the move to Wrigley Field could cause issues for him. He is a fly ball pitcher with a very low ground ball rate of 33.3%, so days where the wind is blowing out in Chicago will be dangerous for him. He is an important pitcher to watch during Spring Training to see if he still looks like the 2024 version of himself that blew his career norms out of the water. If that is the case, he'll be a nice deep sleeper after the first 75 pitchers are off the board.
Michael Conforto, OF, Dodgers
Michael Conforto signed a one-year, $17 million deal with the Dodgers this offseason. He is coming off of a season where he hit for a .237 average with 20 home runs in 130 games for the Giants. His underlying metrics graded out very well, as he had a 0.350 xwOBA (85th percentile), 0.479 xSLG (89th), 11.8% barrel rate (80th), and 46.0% hard-hit rate (77th). It's even more encouraging that the Dodgers are the ones to sign him as they have a great reputation for recognizing talent. He will also get to hit in a lineup full of superstars and get a park upgrade by moving away from Oracle Park. All signs are pointing to a breakout year for the veteran, and you can get him past round 20 in drafts.
Bullpen Updates
Kenley Jansen, RP, Angels
Kenley Jansen recently signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Angels. Despite being 37 years old, he was still a reliable closer in 2024, collecting 27 saves for the Red Sox. He posted a 3.29 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 62 strikeouts in 54.2 innings. While he's not the dominant force he was in his prime, he still had a 28.4% strikeout rate that ranked in the 84th percentile. He will have a firm grip on the closer job in Los Angeles, but Ben Joyce could step in if he struggles. Jansen is a solid target after the more reliable saves sources are off the board, in the 15-20 range of relievers.
Jordan Romano, RP, Phillies
Jordan Romano signed a one-year, $8.5 million contract with the Phillies this offseason. He only threw 13.2 innings in 2024 due to elbow issues, posting a 6.59 ERA with 8 saves over 15 appearances. He's healthy going into the season and will be looking to return to his 2023 form, where he had 36 saves with a 2.90 ERA. If Romano does look like his old self, he could once again be a top-10 closer on one of the best teams in the league. However, if he starts to struggle, it wouldn't take much for Orion Kerkering and Jose Alvarado to take over the job instead. He's a fine draft choice after the first 20 relievers are off the board.
Ryan Walker, RP, Giants
Ryan Walker was officially named the closer for the 2025 season by manager Bob Melvin. Walker was excellent throughout all of 2024 and earned the closer role by the end, posting a 1.91 ERA and 0.85 WHIP with 99 strikeouts in 80 innings. He tallied 10 saves during the year. His 32.1% strikeout rate, 86.4 mph average exit velocity, and .193 xBA all ranked in the 94th percentile. He truly was one of the most elite relievers in the game, and now he is the no-doubt closer on a team that usually gets plenty of save chances. He could very easily finish in the top 10 at the position or even better this season.
Kyle Finnegan, RP, Nationals
Kyle Finnegan resigned with the Nationals on a one-year, $6 million deal. He was an interesting case in 2024, delivering a whopping 38 saves despite not being an effective pitcher. He posted a 3.68 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP, striking out 60 batters in 63.2 innings. His 91.3 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 1st percentile, about as bad as it can be. There's really not much to like about Finnegan as a pitcher, but he once again figures to get the save chances for the Nationals. In deep leagues where saves are scarce, he should be drafted only after every closer with a for-sure job is gone.
Ryan Pressly, RP, Cubs
Ryan Pressly was traded from the Astros to the Cubs this offseason, once again giving him a chance at saves. He will join Porter Hodge in the competition, and the Cubs manager has said that Pressly will definitely get save chances. The question will be how many opportunities are given to Hodge, and that will probably depend on how good Pressly looks. He took a step back in 2024, delivering a 3.49 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 58 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. He'll be looking to get back to the 1.07 WHIP he posted in 2023 when he saved 31 games for the Astros. He should be drafted among the top 20 relievers on draft day.
Around The League
Matt Wallner, OF, Twins
Matt Wallner was a popular breakout pick last season, but he ended up batting 0.080 through the first two weeks of the season and was sent to the minors until he made his return on July 7th. He looked like one of the best hitters in the league from that point on, slashing .282/.386/.559 with 12 home runs in 62 games. He had a max exit velocity of 116.8 mph, a barrel rate of 17.5%, and a 53.2% hard-hit rate that all ranked among the best in the league. He also has above-average plate discipline, showcasing a walk rate of 9.2%. He has serious platoon concerns, but the Twins have been willing to give him some at-bats against lefties in the past. Even if he is a platoon player, he should serve as a useful fantasy option when he's in the lineup and has huge potential to break out. He has even batted leadoff in Spring Training, which will give him way more at-bats to work with throughout the season. He is being drafted with an ADP of 278, making him a no-brainer late in drafts if you're lacking power.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays
Alejandro Kirk had another disappointing year overall, slashing .253/.319/.359 with 5 home runs in 103 games in 2024. However, there are reasons for optimism heading into 2025. The Blue Jays traded away Danny Jansen at the trade deadline last season and didn't replace him with a good option in free agency. This leaves Tyler Heineman as the backup catcher, who should not be a threat to Kirk getting consistent playing time. Kirk also has a good floor, thanks to his plate-discipline skills. He had a 95th-percentile 13.2% strikeout rate, so he will provide a good batting average for a catcher, if nothing else. This makes him a usable second catcher with a late ADP of 270, with the upside for much more. He looked like one of the best hitting catchers in the league in 2022 when he slashed .285/.372/.415, and if he can even get halfway back to that point, he could be a top 12 catcher for fantasy.
Kris Bubic, SP, Royals
Kris Bubic returned from Tommy John in 2024 and looked elite as a reliever. He put up a 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate in 30.1 innings. If he had enough innings to qualify, his 1.81 xERA, 83.4 mpg average exit velocity, 2.6% barrel rate, and 59.7% ground ball rate all would have ranked in the 95th percentile or better. Now he is ready to transition back to being a starting pitcher in 2025, where he'll hope to continue this success. Velocity usually declines when a reliever turns into a starter, so it may be unrealistic to expect him to keep his 94 mph fastball. He's also pitched less than 50 innings in the past two years combined, so he likely won't be ready for a full season's workload. Still, he is one to watch in Spring Training to see if he still looks just as dominant. He is a good sleeper pick late in drafts, currently being drafted at an ADP of 359.
Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics
Tyler Soderstrom played in 61 games in 2024, slashing .233/.315/.429 and hitting nine home runs. He certainly showed off his power potential, and that is especially true when looking at his advanced metrics. He had a 14.6% barrel rate, 49.6% hard-hit rate, 91.9 mph average exit velocity, and .480 xSLG that put him in some pretty elite company. As is the case with most power hitters, strikeouts are his downside, as he struck out 24.9% of the time. However, it still represented improvement, as that number was over 30% in his rookie season in 2023. He still has the opportunity to improve as a 23-year-old, and he should be locked into every day at-bats as the A's starting first baseman in 2025. Don't expect a good batting average, but you're not going to find a better value for home runs outside of pick 300.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, Mets
Brandon Nimmo is coming off of a 2024 season where he slashed .224/.327/.399 with 88 runs, 23 home runs, 90 RBI, and 15 stolen bases in 151 games. It was encouraging to see him retain his 2023 power spike and steal way more bases than he ever had before, although the batting average decline came out of nowhere. He still hit the ball hard with an 89th-percentile average exit velocity of 91.9 mph and still had great plate discipline with an 11.6% walk rate. Things just seemed to be off, and it was later revealed that he had been playing through plantar fasciitis since May. He is being drafted as the 39th outfielder with an ADP outside of the top 150, which is underselling his upside by a lot. There is a good chance he will bounce back in batting average, which, when combined with his power and speed output, would make him a standout fantasy outfielder. He is firmly ranked in my top 30 at the position heading into the year.
