Preseason Prep - February 21, 2025

Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros
Isaac Paredes was traded from the Cubs to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade, and it's going to do wonders for his fantasy value. Paredes may not look like much on paper with an 85 mph average exit velocity (3rd percentile) and a .337 xSLG (11th percentile), but his expected stats are deceiving. This is because expected stats don't take into account the direction in which the ball is hit, and Paredes is among the best in the league at pulling fly balls. His 45.8% fly ball rate ranked 17th among qualified hitters and his 53.7% pull rate ranked 3rd. All of his home runs were pulled, and most were pulled almost right down the left-field line. Lucky for him, his new home ballpark, Daikin Park, has a left-field foul pole that is 315 feet away from the plate, compared to 355 feet in Wrigley. He hit 19 home runs in 2024, but if he had played every game in Houston, that number would have shot up to 26. He actually hit five balls last season that would have only been a home run in that specific stadium. Combine this with his elite 11.9% walk rate, and he looks like a great option at third base for fantasy. He is currently being drafted as the 16th third basemen off the board, but I think he's a good bet to crack the top 12.

Jake Burger, 1B/3B, Rangers
Jake Burger was traded from the Marlins to the Rangers this offseason for Echedry Vargas. This is certainly a boost for Burger, both in terms of his home park and the run-scoring opportunities of the lineup he is hitting in. After starting 2024 extremely slow, he ended up coming alive in the second half, finishing with 68 runs, 29 home runs, 76 RBI, and a .250 batting average in 137 games. His .476 xSLG ranked in the 88th percentile, and his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all placed him in the top 20 percent of the league or better, too. His raw power still makes him a threat for 40 homers if he can avoid extended cold streaks, which makes him a great pick if you wait on first basemen or third basemen in the draft. He can be drafted around the 12th first or third basemen off the board and represents a great fallback option with massive upside.

Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays
Although Brandon Lowe didn't switch teams, he is still getting a massive park upgrade. This is because the Rays will be playing their games this year at Goerge M Steinbrenner Field, a spring training stadium used by the Yankees that is a replica of Yankee Stadium. This obviously includes the short porch in left field, and left-handed slugger Lowe will be sure to take advantage of it. He hit 21 home runs in only 107 games in 2024 and posted an elite xSLG of .485, a barrel rate of 12.4%, and a sweet-spot rate of 39.6%. He is one of the best power-hitting second basemen, and now gets to move to a stadium where it will be even easier for him to knock one over the fence. Of course, he is still an injury risk, as he hasn't played more than 109 games in a season since 2021, but his draft price is so low that there is no downside to taking the chance on him. He has a current ADP of 224 but is basically a lock for top-12 performance at the position on a per-game basis while he's healthy.

Cody Bellinger, OF, Yankees
Cody Bellinger was traded from the Cubs to the Yankees this offseason, and it should bring a helpful boost to his fantasy value. He ended up slashing .266/.325/.426 with 72 runs, 18 home runs, 78 RBI, and 9 steals in 2024. However, he could be due for a big power spike thanks to his new home of Yankee Stadium. It is infamous for its short porch in left field, and there's no doubt that Bellinger will be taking advantage of that to the best of his ability. According to statcast, he would have had 24 expected home runs if he played every game in New York last season. He isn't that far removed from his 2023 season where he batted .307 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and there's a chance he could look more like that version of himself than than the 2024 version. He is a solid top-10 first base option or top-30 outfielder option this season for fantasy.

Giancarlo Stanton, DH, Yankees
Giancarlo Stanton is dealing with soreness in both of his elbows and is shut down from baseball activities with no timeline to return. Stanton's biggest battle is always with his health, and this isn't a promising start to the campaign. When he is on the field, he is still one of the game's most elite power hitters. His 94.6 mph average exit velocity, 20.7% barrel rate, and 55.3% hard-hit rate all ranked in the 99th percentile, and his .509 xSLG ranked in the 94th percentile. He hit 27 home runs in 114 games last season and can be expected to perform at a similar rate this season. I wouldn't spend a valuable draft pick on him, but it doesn't hurt to take him late and throw him in an empty IL spot until he's ready to play.

Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals
Masyn Winn had a solid rookie season hitting 15 home runs and swiping 11 bags with a .267 average. He got the opportunity to bat leadoff for the Cardinals, which resulted in him scoring 85 runs. However, there's reason to believe that he could be even better in 2025. After hitting 5 home runs in the first half of 2024, his power surged after the all-star break, as he hit 10 in the final two and a half months. His 87th percentile sprint speed of 28.8 feet per second could also lead to more stolen bases, and Winn himself said that his goal is to steal over 30 bases this season. This isn't a lofty goal for him by any means, as he stole 43 bases in 119 minor league games in 2022. He has a decent fantasy floor thanks to his run production, but his potential to take a step forward in both power and speed makes him a prime breakout candidate for 2025.

Connor Norby, 3B, Marlins
Connor Norby looked to be stuck behind an endless depth of young talent on the Orioles until a deal at the trade deadline sent him packing to Miami. He went on to slash .247/.315/.455 with 29 R, 7 HR, 17 RBI, and 3 SB in his final 36 games with the Marlins. Heading into 2025, he is locked in for an everyday role and is looking to expand on what he did to close out the year. His 47% sweet-spot rate and 14.8% barrel rate are both elite marks, and he also impressed with a 94th-percentile sprint speed. This is an exciting mix of power and speed for such a young player, but the one thing holding him back is his tendency to swing and miss. He struck out 33% of the time, which he will have to fix, but he is due for a huge breakout if he can indeed improve on that number. He is going very late in drafts and is a perfect lottery ticket to end your drafts with.

Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals
Lars Nootbaar dealt with multiple injuries in 2024, leading to a final slash line of .244/.342/.417 with 39 runs, 12 home runs, 45 RBI, and 7 steals in 109 games. However, he finally came alive in September, batting .290 with a .420 OBP with 4 home runs in the final 22 games of the year. His baseball savant page is lit up in bright red, especially in his plate discipline and quality of contact metrics. He had a 100th-percentile chase rate of 16.9%, a 98th-percentile walk rate of 12.8%, and a 49.5% hard-hit rate that ranked in the top nine percent of the league. It's likely that his nagging oblique injury affected his performance throughout the year, and he is due for a big breakout if he can carry over his September performance into 2025. Nootbaar is one of my favorite outfield sleepers that can be drafted pretty late.

Carlos Correa, SS, Twins
Carlos Correa missed about half of 2024 with plantar fasciitis, but when he was on the field, he was elite. His .358 xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile, and his .278 xBA ranked in the 89th percentile. He put up an elite .310/.388/.517 slash line with 14 home runs, 55 runs, and 54 RBI in 86 games. On a 162-game pace, that translates to 26 home runs, 103 runs, and 101 RBI. He even improved his plate discipline, as his 16.6% strikeout rate was the best of his career. You shouldn't expect Correa to replicate that pace this season, and he is still an injury risk, but his ADP at the moment is disrespectful. He is currently being drafted 253rd overall on average, which is way too late for a player of his pedigree. There is no downside in drafting him as your backup shortstop and enjoying his production for as long as he is healthy.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers
Teoscar Hernadez resigned with the Dodgers on a three-year, $66 million contract this offseason. This is great for his fantasy value, as he gets to return to the place where he crushed the baseball last season. His .486 xSLG ranked in the 91st percentile, and his 14.9% barrel rate ranked in the 94th percentile. He ended the season with 33 home runs, 84 runs, and 99 RBI while hitting for a .272 batting average. He even chipped in with 12 stolen bases. Hitting in the same lineup as the likes of Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman is going to produce tons of run-scoring opportunities, and he remains an extremely safe top-20 fantasy outfielder for 2025.

Garrett Crochet, SP, Red Sox
Garret Crochet finally got out of Chicago after being traded to the Red Sox this offseason. He was one of the most dominant starts in baseball on a per-inning basis in 2024, posting a 35.1% strikeout rate that ranked in the top two percent of the league. His ERA ended up at 3.58, although his xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all even better at 2.85, 2.69, and 2.38. You often see an inflated walk rate with a lot of high strikeout pitchers, but not in Crochet's case, as his walk rate was also an excellent 5.5%. He is the total package and now goes to a Boston team that is much better than the White Sox who gave Crochet a 6-12 win/loss record despite his dominance. Crochet is a clear top-10 pitcher for fantasy in 2025, but the case could be made for him to be top-5.

Jack Flaherty, SP, Tigers
Jack Flaherty resigned with the Tigers on a 2-year, $35 million dollar deal this offseason. This is one of the better landing spots for Flaherty, as he goes back to the same place he dominated in for the first half of 2024. He finished the season with a 13-7 record to go along with a 3.17 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 194 strikeouts in 162 innings. His 29.9% strikeout rate ranked in the 90th percentile. He did fall off later in the year with the Dodgers and suffered a slight velocity decrease. That may have been caused by fatigue, but it is worrying since Flaherty was a breakout that no one saw coming last year. The good news is that he is being drafted as the 42nd starting pitcher off the board so that risk is already baked in. If he can repeat even 80 percent of his performance for 2025, he will pay off at that draft spot.

Nick Lodolo, SP, Reds
Nick Lodolo was disappointing in 2024 as he battled through several injuries. He ended up with a 9-6 record with a 4.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 122 strikeouts and 37 walks in 115.1 innings pitched. He got progressively worse with each injury, but he looked to be breaking out in the first six starts before the first injury struck. In those 6 starts, he pitched 35 innings while putting up a 3.34 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 30.7% K%, and 6.4% BB%. His season was derailed after that by a calf injury, groin strain, blister, and finger strain. Staying healthy has proven to be a challenge, but if he enters 2025 at 100%, he still possesses ace upside thanks to his elite strikeout stuff.

Max Fried, SP, Yankees
Max Fried agreed to an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yankees this offseason. Fried had another great season in 2042, posting a 3.25 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 166 strikeouts and 57 walks over 174.1 innings pitched. He finished with a win/loss record of 11-10. He still doesn't excel in the strikeout department, posting a 52nd percentile strikeout rate of 23.2%, but he remains a master of avoiding hard contact. His 86.3 average exit velocity against ranked in the 95th percentile, to go along with an 89th percentile barrel rate and 81st percentile hard-hit rate. He does his best to keep the ball on the ground, with a ground ball rate of 59.2, ranking in the top four percent of the league. He should be provided plenty of wins thanks to the Yankees' strong offense and should be drafted as a near-elite starting pitcher somewhere in the SP20-SP25 range.

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Blue Jays
Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $33 million deal this offseason. He is locked in to be the closer and is coming off of a 2024 season where was an elite high-leverage option for the Phillies. He posted a 2.17 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 89 and walking 16 in 66.1 innings pitched. However, one main concern for the reliever is the fact that he failed multiple physicals this offseason. The Braves and the Orioles both reportedly backed away from contracts with Hoffman after discovering a problem with his shoulder. The big question remains, what is wrong with his shoulder? He clearly wasn't playing injured last season, and Hoffman himself says that his shoulder feels completely fine. He will be a risk come draft day, but a risk that I think is worth taking. He is being drafted after the first 15 closers are off the board, but will perform like an elite one as long as he is healthy.