Mariners Starting Rotation
The Mariners' starting rotation is fascinating. Luis Castillo is the veteran with the most impressive resume, but he could turn out to be the worst starter on the team by the end of the season. He is certainly the oldest at 32 years old. In fact, every other Seattle starter is 27 years old or younger. The youth-infused rotation is buoyed by a pitcher-friendly ballpark and an amazing ability to limit walks. Not only is he the only starter over 30, Castillo's walk rate was the highest of all five starters last year at a very good 6.5 percent. This team could set a record for least walks allowed by starters. They simply don't allow baserunners. And while they don't strike out an extraordinary number of batters, all five starters are capable of posting high K totals. In fact, No. 5 starter Bryan Woo finished the season with 19 strikeouts in 15.2 innings over his last three starts. And Woo is the least strikeout focused pitcher on the team. It will be fascinating to see how low the totals for Mariners games will go, especially with a lackluster offense. Any one of these starters is a worthwhile fantasy asset, but yes, Castillo may have the biggest name but could wind up with the worst numbers.
Jose Altuve, 2B (HOU)
Apparently re-signing Alex Bregman wasn't the catalyst to moving Altuve to the outfield. Despite Bregman signing in Boston, Altuve is still on a pathway to playing left field this season. Acquiring multi-positional eligibility is always a boon to fantasy owners, although it would be more beneficial if he was gaining the more scarce second base eligibility. Regardless, Altuve at 34 years old, after 15,219 innings played at second base, is going to give it a shot at the outfield. It's left field so it's not quite as taxing as playing centerfield, but it does potentially open the aging All-Star to more injuries, either using his legs to cover more ground or his arm for longer throws. At the same time, I think it's going a bit overboard to dramatically reduce his fantasy value with the expectation for injuries. He is coming off a superb 20/20 season where he managed to maintain a high batting average (.295) despite the highest swinging-strike rate of his career (10.4%) and highest pull rate (55.6%). Pulling the ball is the right move for a right-hander trying to hit home runs at Daikin Park (previously Minute Maid Park) due to the shallow wall topped with the Crawford Boxes. It does cause some problems on the road, however, where Altuve hit only seven of his 20 home runs with a sub-.100 ISO (it was .191 at home). In all likelihood, Altuve will still get plenty of at-bats at second base and the left field tryout could just be a spring training experiment. The team recently signed Brendan Rodgers to a minor league deal so he could see some time at second base, as could Mauricio Dubon.
Marcus Stroman, SP (NYY)
It sure will be interesting to see how this Marcus Stroman saga plays out in New York. He says he won't pitch out of the bullpen, but the Yankees really don't have room for him in the rotation. The veteran is coming off his worst non-injury season since 2016. His flyball rate was a career-high 31% and his strikeout rate was a career low. He has lost significant velocity on his fastball and so he basically can't even use his 4-seamer anymore, and that makes his sinker much less effective. It's a bad combination for an aging pitcher without a role. However, the Yankees announced Stroman will be the starter for their spring training opener on Friday. This comes as the team announced starter Clarke Schmidt is dealing with a back issue. Stroman provides a potential fill-in if Schmidt or any of the other Yankees starters miss time, but he could also be on display as trade bait. The Yanks would likely have to pick up most of his salary if traded as he is set to make $18.5 million this season. Stroman should be avoided in nearly all fantasy formats.
Luis Rengifo, 2B (LAA)
Rengifo's ADP has been diluted in the early part of draft season as he is coming off wrist surgery last August, but recent news implies that the versatile infielder is fully recovered and should be good to go to begin spring training. He is coming off a breakout season where he hit .300 with 24 stolen bases in 78 games. His power dropped as he took a more contact, ground ball driven approach, but the changes in his swing open the door for more playing time at or near the top of the Angels lineup. If he can stay healthy, he should provide a solid average and a lot of stolen bases. Furthermore, he qualifies at second and third base and could pick up shortstop eligibility if asked to fill in for the injured Zach Neto. There's an opportunity to get in at a decent price right now, but that price could change quickly as the Cactus League proceeds.
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP (LAD)
Every time Ohtani practices pitching, it's worth writing about. He has thrown multiple bullpen sessions this month and is reportedly hitting the low-to-mid 90's. He's a ways off of his pre-surgery arsenal, but the signs are trending in line with projections for a return to the mound in early May. Ohtani had one of the greatest offensive performances in major league history last year in a season where there was no consideration of him pitching. Now it's not as if he hasn't been an elite hitter while also pitching, but it's difficult to imagine he can come close to the 50/50 totals he put up in 2024. In most leagues where fantasy managers have to decide whether to deploy him as a hitter or pitcher on a weekly basis, his value is mostly based on his offense. It's unlikely there will be a week to use him as a pitcher, but in daily leagues, his value goes through the roof when he returns to pitching. What to expect as a pitcher is hard to say. He has been spectacular throughout his pitching career, but he is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and he is going to be over 600 days removed from his last time pitching in a major league game. It will be important to continue to monitor his rehab over the next several months.
Jordan Lawlar, SS (ARI)
What to make of Jordan Lawlar after the Diamondbacks extended Geraldo Perdomo. The Diamondbacks' top prospect doesn't have a spot in the lineup. Perdomo offers a lot more real-life value than fantasy value and the DBacks place a lot of emphasis on his presence with the club. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte is entrenched at second base and Eugenio Suarez is in the final year of his contract, likely to maintain his spot at third base. Lawlar is probably athletic enough to play in the outfield, but he has never gotten experience there and the reality is Arizona has an abundance of players (Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Corbin Carroll, Jake McCarthy, Pavin Smith, Randal Grichuk and Alek Thomas) competing for those positions, too. There's simply nowhere for Lawlar to play. He'll turn 23 in July but didn't get a lot of experience last year due to a prolonged hamstring injury. He has been extremely productive when he's played in the minor leagues, although it's possible the Diamondbacks are wanting him to have a more healthy run at AAA in 2025 since he has previously only played 28 games at the minors' highest level. Nonetheless, it's hard to imagine he will spend the entire season in Reno. Expect him to make an appearance in the big leagues at some point, but because of the uncertainty and the lack of commitment from the franchise, it's hard to trust him in redraft leagues.
Rafael Devers, 3B (BOS)
Ongoing shoulder problems could be the answer to the Red Sox' biggest quandary right now. Devers dealt with shoulder issues in 2024, although he still managed to play 138 games and hit .272 with 28 home runs. The 28 year old franchise cornerstone is reportedly still dealing with lingering effects from the shoulder injuries and that could force him to DH, which is probably the best scenario for the team after Boston signed Alex Bregman. Devers has said he doesn't want to be the permanent designated hitter, but the lineup looks best with Devers at DH, Bregman at 3rd and a combination of David Hamitlon, Vaughn Grissom or highly-touted prospect Kristian Campbell battling for playing time at 2nd. If Devers ultimately convinces Red Sox brass that he is healthy enough to be the everyday 3rd baseman, Bregman will play 2nd while Grissom and Campbell are going to be held down, either at AAA-Worcester or on the bench. As for Devers, the shoulder issues cost him some playing time but didn't ultimately impact his production. He continues to crush the ball and actually posted a career-low chase rate, a great sign for a player who used to swing too much out of the zone. Don't read too much into preseason storylines about him being frustrated or defiant. These things tend to work themselves out, especially for players making $29 million per year.
Yariel Rodriguez, SP (TOR)
The Blue Jays signed Max Scherzer earlier this month, which effectively filled out their five-man rotation, a rotation that now has an average age of 34 years old. As good as Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Scherzer have been in their careers, there is plenty of uncertainty around their ability to stay healthy and pitch every fifth day. The same could be said for Bowden Francis who only has 13 career starts. Jose Berrios is really the only relatively reliable and consistent starter on the roster. If any of those pitchers misses time and stumbles on the mound, the likely substitute is Yariel Rodriguez. Rodriguez is slated to start the season in the bullpen, but Toronto is somewhat committed to the well-traveled pitcher after signing him to a four-year deal with a fifth-year option prior to the 2024 season. He made 21 starts for the Blue Jays as a rookie and struggled to limit walks or go deep into games. He finished with an unsightly 1-8 record and a 4.47 ERA. However, there are some encouraging signs on the exterior. First of all, he allowed only three earned runs in 20.1 innings with 33 strikeouts at AAA-Buffalo. He struck out nearly a batter per inning with the Blue Jays and limited hard contact. In fact, in his final five starts, he allowed a measly 85.2 average exit velocity to opposing hitters. His ERA was 3.38 in September. He may have found something later in the season by reducing the use of his four-seam fastball, relying more on his sinker and slider. His ability to pick up a strikeout when needed and induce weak contact are good signs for his long-term growth. The Jays could use his role in the bullpen as one way to limit his innings, but there's little reason to believe he will remain there. He's going to get another opportunity to start, and there is a decent fantasy ceiling there.
Tommy Pham, OF (PIT)
Pham was a late offseason signing by the Pirates, but don't assume that means he won't be an important part of the roster. In fact, there's a strong likelihood he will play every day while hitting at the top of the lineup. Pittsburgh will represent Pham's eighth team since the start of the 2022 season. He's 37 years old and not the 20/20 threat he once was, but he still managed to put up meaningful fantasy numbers as recently as 2023. He still makes good contact, hits the ball hard and runs well. He will presumably hit in front of Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz. It's not exactly Murderers Row, but if he gets on base as usual, he should steal some bases and score some runs. The Fantistics Draft Software projects Pham for a .258 average with 16 home runs and seven stolen bases.
Luis Robert Jr., OF (CHW)
Robert is a free agent at the end of this season and could be poised for a massive contract at 28 years old. Although he is coming off a very disappointing season, he is only two years removed from a spectacular 38-homer, 20-steal campaign in 2023. Robert has demonstrated an ability to hit for a high average, hit for power and steal bases. When healthy he typically posts elite barrel rates. He strikes out way too much and sometimes gets too flyball focused, but the talent is extraordinary. In all likelihood, the White Sox trade him at some point over the next five months. He should end up on a contender, in a much better team context than what he is currently dealing with. It's hard to find a player capable of going 30/30 in the 6th or 7th round, but the negativity around Robert following the down season is palpable. In a contract year, bound for a better surrounding cast, it's worthwhile taking a chance on the talent.
Jurickson Profar, OF (ATL)
On the one hand, I love the sneakiness of drafting Profar late in drafts. On the other hand, let's not forget that Ronald Acuna Jr. will eventually return from the injured list and supplant Profar at the top of the lineup. However, until Acuna comes back, Profar is likely to hit in the 1 or 2 spot in the lineup, ahead of the likes of Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna. You're going to be hard-pressed to find better run producers in the middle of a lineup. Profar is coming off the best season of his career with a career-high .280 batting average, career-high 24 home runs and tied for a career high in stolen bases with 10. He has always been able to get on base, and that is why the Braves will likely position him ahead of the big boppers. He posted huge gains in quality of contact in 2024 and if he can continue those in Atlanta, it's possible he posts another 20+-homer season. He can be had late in the drafts and should provide a huge fantasy boost as long as he gets opportunities.
Tyler Stephenson, C (CIN)
Stephenson was an underrated catcher heading into the 2024 season, and he delivered for patient fantasy managers by hitting .258 with 19 home runs. Yet, for some reason, he is still being drafted as a borderline No. 1 catcher. In many instances, you can get him as your No. 2. It's hard to understand why: Stephenson is coming off his second-straight season with at least 450 at bats; he posted career highs in hard-hit rate and ISO, all while reducing his strikeouts. He gets on base at a solid .338 clip, hits in a phenomenal ballpark among an excellent supporting cast and has very little competition for playing time. Other catchers drafted ahead of Stephenson that I value lower include JT Realmuto, Shea Langeliers and Logan O'Hoppe.
Nolan Jones, OF (COL)
It's all too common in fantasy circles to quickly move on from players that burn us. Following a 20/20 season in only 367 at-bats in his first year as a big leaguer, a lot of people were very high on Nolan Jones heading into 2024. Injuries and underperformance quickly zapped the enthusiasm for the left-handed slugger. However, what happened as part of his sophomore slump is not necessarily indicative of what will happen in 2025. Jones battled a back injury last year, and that likely contributed to a two-degree drop in launch angle and nearly 10% decline in barrel rate. He's 26 years old and has demonstrated great power and good speed. He plays in Colorado and should play every day (he hit .314 with seven home runs against lefties in 2023). Don't let one bad season distract you from the young slugger's upside.
Chris Paddack, SP (MIN)
Paddack has only thrown 115.2 innings over the last three seasons. He has only once topped 110 innings in a season. That was his rookie year, but the oft-injured starter is reportedly healthy entering spring training so perhaps this is the year Paddack delivers on the promise that helped him rise through the Padres organization as one of the top pitching prospects. Now with the Twins, Paddack appears to have a role in the rotation, although health remains the biggest question mark. He started 17 games in 2024 but only reached six innings four times. His last start was in mid-July before a forearm strain effectively ended his season. Projections, however, are relatively bullish. Fantistics projects him for 150 innings with a 4.27 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 10 wins. Most prognosticators have him somewhere in the low-4's for ERA and about 8.5 K/9. It's only an AL-only or deep mixed-league play, but Paddack could deliver a solid return on investment.
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B (WSH)
Lowe's move from Texas to Washington would look like a downgrade for fantasy purposes, but it could turn out to be a boost to his numbers. Globe Life Field is a better home run hitting environment for left-handed hitters, but Nationals Park is actually a better all-around stadium for lefties, especially those that aren't pull heavy, like Lowe. Lowe has a straightaway, line drive-centric approach. He makes excellent contact, and although his power numbers have dipped over the past two seasons, he has demonstrated an ability to hit the ball out of the park. According to MASN Sports, Lowe has set a goal of hitting more home runs this year, and as long as he doesn't go overboard with that approach, he could deliver 20+ homers along with consistently strong ratios. Lowe is likely to hit behind the Nats' talented young trio of CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews and James Wood and could see more time around Luis Garcia Jr. and Keibert Ruiz. It's not the most prolific situation, but if those young players deliver on their promise, it will only benefit the veteran.
