Yesterday was the first full day of games in the Cactus and Grapefruit Leagues.
After an active offseason teams are getting work in and facing game conditions.
Fantasy drafts are starting and for those not drafting yet it's time to pay attention to what's happening.
Chris Sale- P- ATL- Sale tossed 2 perfect IP in his Grapefruit League debut. He threw 21 pitches with his fastball averaging 93.8 mph. Sale is projected to throw 160 IP, strike out 200 batters, post a 2.88 ERA and win 11 games. His ADP of 4.01 is pretty close to his FDP of 3.11, so he is being valued fairly so far.
Elly De La Cruz- OF- CIN- De La Cruz started off his Cactus League with a bang yesterday. The switch-hitter slugged a homer from each side of the plate in his two ABs. De La Cruz slugged 25 homers and stole 67 bases in his 2024 campaign. He had the largest gap between BABIP and AVG last year, with a .359 BABIP and .259 average. De La Cruz is a free swinger, with a 31.3% K%. This will limit his contributions in AVG with a projected mark of .251. His speed will mitigate some potential regression in BABIP while his Statcast numbers of 114.7 EV, 12.7% Barrel% and 45.7% HardHit% underlie legitimate power that shouldn't fade. De La Cruz is projected to slug 28 homers. He is also projected to practically equal his steal total from 2024, with 65 thefts. De La Cruz has been slightly overvalued so far, with an ADP of 1.04. His FDP of 2.05 takes his likely AVG more into account.
Nolan Arenado- 3B- STL- Rumors are swirling that maybe Arenado would be open to a trade to Houston, after rejecting that during the offseason. If it happens Arenado's power may get a boost. Busch Stadium was 8% under average for homers while Daikin (nee Minute Maid) Park was 6% above average. Arenado hit a homer every 36 PAs on the road last year while only 1 in every 44 PAs at home.
Zack Gelof- 2B- ATH- Gelof slugged 17 homers in 547 PAs in 2024. Only 6 of them came at the late not-so-lamented Coliseum. Although the impact of moving to Sutter Health Park in Sacramento isn't completely known yet, it can't be much worse. Gelof's main weak point is his K%. He had the highest of qualifying hitters in 2024 at 34.4%. That was up from his 27.3% of 2023 and correlated inversely with a drop in his AVG from .267 to 211. That K% was also an outlier from what he had posted in the minors. Gelof has sleeper potential to provide more power and average than he showed last season.
Jose Altuve- 2B- HOU- Altuve has had his AVG exceed his xBA by significant amounts for the last 3 seasons. In 2024 his AVG was .295 while his xBA was .262. Altuve also saw his BB% plunge from 10.7% in 2023 to 6.9% last season. While Altuve will still have eligibility at 2B he is being moved to LF. His numbers will not be as good comparably with that change of position. Altuve also saw his ISO drop from .211 to .145. His value is tied to his 2B eligibility.
Maikel Garcia- 3B- KC- Garcia underperformed in 2024. Among qualified hitters he had the largest difference between AVG (.231) and xBA (.264.) Garcia had a .268 BABIP working against him. With a 42.6% HardHit% last year following a 50.6% in 2023 there is power potential there. Garcia is predicted to double his homer total to 14 this season. His average is predicted at a more respectable .259 and his OPS to rise from .613 to .716.
Bobby Miller- P- LAD- Miller avoided serious injury after being hit in the face by a comebacker on Friday. He is still in concussion protocol. Miller's 2024 season was derailed by injury, with shoulder inflammation sidelining him for two months. He was mostly ineffective as he bounced between the Dodgers and AAA Oklahoma City. Altogether Miller only threw 89 IP, all in starts. This was much different than his performance in 2023 when he posted a 3.76 ERA and 3.51 FIP across 124.1 IP with the Dodgers. Miller will need to regain the control he had then, when he posted a 2.32 BB/9. In 2024 Miller had a 5.45 BB/9 in the minors and 4.82 with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are deep in starting pitching on paper but it seems like they get hit with injuries on a frequent basis. There is a good chance that Miller will get a chance at some point to show that 2023 wasn't a fluke.
Seiya Suzuki- OF- CHC- Suzuki's .370 BABIP was the highest among all qualified hitters in 2024. That helps explain the difference between his AVG of .283 and xBA of .255. His average is projected to fall to .266 but his homer total is expected to go up from 21 to 28. Suzuki's playing time is projected to increase from 132 to 145 games. His underlying power metrics are solid, with a 48.9% HardHit% and 11.5% Barrel%. Suzuki increased his LA from 10.8 to 16.2 last year, which helped decrease his GB% from 43.1% to 33.7%. He is undervalued right now, with his ADP at 7.11 and FDP at 4.10.
Randy Arozarena- OF- SEA- Arozarena is one of two players to be in the 20/20 club in each season since 2021. (The other is Jose Ramirez in case you were going to start trying to figure it out.) He is projected to make it 5 straight seasons, with 25 homers and 20 steals in 2025. Arozarena is projected to hit for a .240 AVG, which would be better than his .219 mark in 2024. That was impacted greatly by a .275 BABIP, well below his career mark of .318. Arozarena's average has dropped every season in his career. This would be the first year to buck that trend but because of the freak nature of last season it carries an asterisk. A .240 average would be his lowest of his career except for 2024. Arozarena is undervalued a bit, with a 11.06 ADP and 9.09 FDP.
Brandon Pfaadt- P- ARI- Pfaadt had the largest difference between his ERA and xERA of any qualified pitcher in MLB last season. His ERA was 4.70 but his xERA only 3.75. This season Pfaadt is projected to have better results, with a 3.68 ERA, 12 wins, 1.13 WHIP, and 180 Ks in 176 IP. His 15.12 ADP puts him in undervalued land with a 13.03 FDP.
George Kirby- P- SEA- Kirby's control is otherworldly. His 3.0% BB% led MLB, as his 2.5% did the year before. Since Kirby made the majors in 2022 no one has a BB% better than his 3.1%. This makes up a big part of his WHIP, which was 1.06 in 2024 and is projected to be 1.05 this season. Kirby is also durable, throwing 190.2 IP in 2023, 191 in 2024, and is projected for 193 this season. He strikes out a little less than a batter per IP, so isn't at the top of that category, but is projected to win 14 games. That makes him an important cog of an outstanding Seattle rotation and earns him an identical 4.04 ADP and FDP.
William Contreras- C- MIL- Contreras has improved his HardHit% in each of the last four seasons. In 2024 it was 49.0% and he hit a career-high 23 homers. Contreras is expected to set a new career-best of 27 in 2025, his age-27 season. Contreras may see more time at 1B as the season goes on. That depends on whether top prospect Jeferson Quero works his way back from a dislocated shoulder that cost him all but one AB of the 2024 season. Contreras is still the top-rated fantasy catcher.
Steven Kwan- OF- CLE- Kwan was the only hitter last year to rank in the top 10 in all 3 of Chase (19.0%,) Z-Contact (96.7%,) and Contact (92.9%) rates. Even with a HardHit% of 23.7% and Barrel% of 2.6% Kwan increased his homer output from 5 in 718 PAs in 2023 to 14 in 540 PAs last season. He is projected to see a drop in AVG from .292 to .283 but a rise in homers to 15 and steals to 15. This puts Kwan at a FDP of 7.09 while he is at a 12.12 ADP. He is in value territory right now.
Luis Arraez- 2B- SD- Since putting the COVID season behind MLB in 2021 no batter has a higher than average than Arraez's .321. That's 10 points ahead on second-place Freddie Freeman. If AVG was the only fantasy category, that would be great. Arraez's numbers are anemic outside of the AVG. There are 106 players with at least 1800 PAs since 2021. Of them, Arraez ranks dead last in homers and has more RBI than only 17 of them. That's why his ADP is 15.08, which is still undervalued but his FDP is 12.03, so it's not like Arraez is a prime catch.
Gunnar Henderson- 3B- BAL- Henderson is one of three hitters who had a higher Hard% than Med% in 2024. He murders the ball with a 92.8 EV, 11.2% Barrel%, and 53.9% HardHit%. He is projected to increase his homer total to 38 in 2025 and slash .289/.370/.548. Henderson's 10.8% BB% and 22.1% K% puts him elite slugger territory. He has earned his first round draft positions and MVP consideration. (Oh, Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber are the other hitters with higher Hard% than Med% last year.)
