Wyatt Langford
Langford came into the 2024 season with quite a fair bit of hype, as the former No. 4 overall pick effectively skipped the minor leagues and was thrusted into a starter role immediately. He got off to a slow start, posting just an 80 wRC+ in March/April. His May was shortened due to an injury, before he bounced back in June and posted a 151 wRC+ and.380 wOBA across 106 PAs. Across the entire second half of the season, he posted a .321 wOBA and 123 wRC+. What excited me about Langford is that he has true 5-category potential. The Rangers are not afraid to bat him early in the lineup, and already posted 16 HR/19 SB as a freshman. His overall season is mightily impressive when you consider his age (22 all season) and lack MiLB experience. This is the exact type of profile that tends to make a jump in Year 2. Given his prospect status and strong track record, I'm willing to take a chance on this profile every time. At just ADP 59 on Yahoo, I'll gladly take him in the 5th round every time this season.
Jackson Holliday
I'll just say it - he was terrible in 2024. There is no getting around that. The underlying data wasn't great either. Across 208 PAs, he struck out 33.2% of the time, while only walking at 7.2%. His .258 xwOBA was abysmal, and his LA Sweet-Spot % finished at 27%, well below league average. He swung and missed, and didn't make clean contact. However, the former No. 1 overall prospect currently sits at the 192 ADP, putting him outside the first 15 rounds. He was terrible, but admittedly with a ton of pressure, and was only 20 years old all season. 2025 can only get better, and given his late ADP and the lack of enticing options in the middle tiers at 2B, I'm comfortable rolling the dice on someone who has much more upside than any of the other 2Bs being drafted around him.
Corey Seager
Seager may have had a "down" year in terms of counting stats, but make no mistake, this is still one of the best pure hitters in the game. Seager's .390 xwOBA, .289 xBA, 15.2% Barrel, and 50.7% Hard Hit are all some of the best marks in the league. Oh, and walked at 9.9%. Line by line, there is very very little about his 2024 that was different from his 2023. Don't let the natural ebb and flow of batting average and counting stats deter you from drafting one of the best hitting shortstops, who can be found at only SS7.
Spencer Strider
Strider lit the world on fire in 2023 when he posted a 36.8% punchout rate against only a 7.6% walk rate across 32 starts. He led all of baseball in Wins (20) and punchouts (281), making him a fantasy darling, and one of the first pitchers taken off the board in 2024 drafts. Unfortunately, his 2024 ended early, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. The talent is undeniable - when healthy he combines strike throwing with stuff (38.6% Whiff in 2024), we just need to place him in the right spot in drafts baking in the time he will miss recovering from injury. Right now, he is going as the SP38, and overall at 132 ADP. It was recently announced that Strider is expected to only miss three or four starts. If you add a couple on the end to account for ramping up performance, we can approximate that you'll have to wait five to six starts before you get the normal Spencer Strider back. If you're the type of manager that loves taking injured players at a hefty count, this is the guy to pull the trigger on. Inside the first ten rounds and I'm skeptical, but outside of round ten, there are fewer arms that give you this much upside.
Jackson Jobe
Jobe made a very brief debut in 2024, throwing just four innings, so there isn't much MLB data to point at. However, we do have 16 starts worth of data in AA in 2024. Across 73.2 innings in AA, Jobe punched out 27.1% of batters, while walking 12.7%. That 12.7 mark was easily the highest in his career, and was actually a large surprise. Jobe has a strike throwing history - he walked only 1.9% of batters in A+ in 2023 across 40 innings. It's a mediocre sample size, but 1.9% is nothing to scoff at. From a scouting perspective, Jobe is praised for having multiple plus pitches with a high chance to start, which all combine places him as the 5th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com. The catch here is that it is unclear if Jobe will be in the rotation to start the season or not. I have no doubt, barring injury, that he is good enough and eventually will be. For now, I see him as a massive upside play for cheap at SP77.
Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen has literally never not performed. He owns a career 2.95 ERA and 3.01 FIP across 310.2 innings. He also owns a career 24/6.5 K/BB% ratio across those innings, and the ratio has steadily gotten better through every year of his career. That being said, this career has had its fair share of injuries, as Rasmussen has missed plenty of time throughout the years. Supposedly, he is now fully healthy, as the Rays signed him through his last two arbitration years in January. In his 28.2 inning sample in 2024, he was nothing short of amazing, allowing ZERO barrels while getting 53.3% groundballs and striking out 30.2%. DRAFT DREW RASMUSSEN.
Alec Bohm
Bohm tortured his fantasy owners a bit last year, hitting 44 doubles, good for fourth in all of baseball. Unfortunately, those doubles don't directly contribute to roto-performance, making Bohm much more valuable in points leagues. His xHR actually finished at 12.8, so Bohm was somehow actually on the lucky side in that department. He is a strong hitter with strong underlying figures, but the nature of the swing and contact point just produces lower LAs (10.1 Avg in 2024) for a hitter of this caliber. I can't promise you the homeruns will come in 2025, but I don't want to overlook how great of a complete hitter he was in 2024. Bohm set a career low in K%, finishing at just 14.2%. He had a career best slash line, tying his career high in AVG (.280) and setting bests in SLG (.448) and OBP (.332) - excluding his shortened rookie 2020 season. He doesn't whiff much (17.6%) and hits the ball hard (45.65). At 147 ADP overall on Yahoo, he is one of the safest bats you can get in that range.
Grayson Rodriguez
Rodriguez came into 2024 with some hype after a promising freshman campaign in 2023. He was a usable, respectable starter for the first half of 2024, but an injury over the summer ended his season. He is reportedly fully healed and ready to take on the ace role for a Baltimore pitching staff that will really need him to step up. In his 116.2 innings in 2024, he posted a 3.72 xERA, 3.66 FIP, and 3.57 xFIP. It's really nice when all three of those agree on a player's performance. In that time he was a respectable groundball-getter (40.6%, 41st Percentile), got a good amount of punchouts (26.5%), and was respectable at limiting hard contact (39.7%, 40th Percentile). All-in-all, I'm not sure I see "ace" in him, or true SP1 for fantasy purposes, but I do see a use case in that he'll be scheduled to make all 32 starts barring injury and that there is strong reason to believe he will be solid over those starts. At SP35 right now, it feels like you can get him at a slight discount if you're looking for a high floor type.
Shane McClanahan
McClanahan was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball in 2022, and was still excellent in 2023. Unfortunately, he missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, but is now expected to start the season fully healed. Hard-throwing lefty starters are diamonds. Hard-throwing lefty starters that throw strikes are straight up gold. McClanahan sports a 7.1% walk rate in his career, which looks miniscule compared to his 28% career punchout rate. He gets a good amount of groundballs (44.6%), which is incredible given his ability to also generate whiffs (33.5%). Other than having a rough track record of health, this profile contains everything we need to see in an ace, and I'm excited to draft him at SP43.
Shohei Ohtani
Don't overthink it. If you get 1.01, draft Ohtani. Not only was this guy unquestionably the best value hitter in all of fantasy baseball last season, he will now retake the mound, where he can be just as excellent. Shohei was 99th Percentile or better in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, EV, Barrel %, and Hard Hit%. He admittedly does whiff a lot (29.8%), but the quality of contact is so good, it can be completely overlooked. Oh, and he also stole 59 bases. Please don't draft anyone else.
Corbin Carroll
Carroll was a first round lock in 2024 drafts, but posted a super down year and disappointed a lot of fantasy managers. He was still able to manage 22 homers and 35 stolen bases, but the .231 AVG/.241 xBA was a killer. The biggest and most obvious difference was the launch angles. Carroll posted a 32.7 LA Sweet-Spot % in 2023, and just a 27.8% in 2024 (good for 3rd Percentile). The main culprit was popups, as his rate jumped from 7.3% to 12.1%. It clearly made a difference, and doesn't pair well with the fact that many did notice a change in his swing in 2024 compared to 2023. Swing changes are tricky, it's unknown if the player will be able to easily return to old form or not. That being said, his HR/SB ability is still worth something, but at overall 10 ADP, I find that a bit pricey for something that might just end up being value in name.
Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna was the no-doubt 1.01 in 2024 drafts thanks to 41 homers and 73 stolen bases. He was a third of the way through a down season before a brutal knee injury ended his 2024. The biggest concern with Acuna is that the 2024 sample was very different than 2023. In 2023 he punched out underneath 12%, but that rate doubled to 24% this past season. The slugging department took a .240 point hit and the xwOBA took a .110 point hit. He also posted a career low 9.4 Barrel %. I think the concerns are valid. At OF10, that's an OK spot, but I don't think it's a value.
Jarren Duran
Duran was awesome last season, posting 21HR/34SB along with a .342 xwOBA and a 43.9% Hard Hit rate. He offers top tier speed and defense, meaning barring injury, he'll be on the field as often as possible. In terms of discipline and contact, he was largely average across the board. He punched out at 21.8% and walked at 7.3%. This is one of the safest picks you can make, and at OF11 I think he is being drafted in the right place right now.
Lawrence Butler
Butler was a pleasant surprise last year. If you play in a head to head league, he may have won you some matchups with how hot his streaks can get. Butler finished the year with 22 HR/18 SB in only 125 games, so the full season pace is even more attractive. He did punch out at 23.9% and whiffed at 26.9%, so there is some slight contact risk you'll be taking on. That being said, his 2024 represented a step forward compared to 2023. His LA Sweet Spot % jumped 10.4%, and his EV jumped 2.8%. I'm not sure if we see continued improvements but I view Butler as a solid five category guy that might not excel at all five, but will contribute.
Jacob deGrom
DeGrom's talent is not secret - he spent a decade of being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, the last couple years have been unkind to him on the injury front. He has yet to eclipse 100 innings in the last five seasons, last doing so in 2019. He threw just 10.2 in 2024. Supposedly, he is fully healthy going into 2025. I am not of the opinion that deGrom will throw full season, especially as a 36 year old, but we do know that whatever innings he is able to give us will be awesome. In 2023, when he threw 30.1 innings, he posted a 2.32 xFIP and 1.54 FIP. While I still believe in the talent, SP17 is a bit rich. He is going at overall 45 ADP on Yahoo. He will need to throw a lot of innings to pay that off.
