Around the League
Mets Starting Rotation
Tylor Megill is reportedly ahead of other Mets pitchers. He is scheduled for three innings of live batting practice. The Mets are going with a six-man rotation to start the year. They have competition in camp for the rotation even with recently signed Frankie Montas on the shelf for 6-8 weeks. The final spot will come down to Griffin Canning, Paul Blackburn, and Tylor Megill. The Mets rotation is full of injury risks (Senga, Peterson, Canning, Blackburn, Montas, and Megill) alongside risk with Clay Holmes moving from the bullpen to the rotation so all seven could be viable at certain points this season. Griffin Canning is coming off his first full season in the big leagues. He posted a 5.19 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 9% K:BB in 171.2 IP. His skills eroded with below-average strikeouts (18%) which corresponded with the worst Stuff+ (89) of his career. Drafting Canning is a bet on the Mets getting the most out of his profile because there isn't anything pointing toward a turnaround. Paul Blackburn is coming off surgery on his back for a spinal fluid leak. He is behind the other pitchers but throwing in camp. He had a 4.66 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 12% K:BB in 75.1 IP between the Athletics and Mets. Blackburn doesn't offer upside because of his middling ratios and lack of strikeouts (19%). Tylor Megill is the furthest along in camp and offers the most upside. It does come with a spotty injury history though. Megill had a 4.07 (3.81 SIERA), 1.31 WHIP, and 18% K:BB. He offers the best stuff and upside given his ability to miss bats. The downside is that he has crossed 100 IP just once in his career. Late in drafts, it is worth betting on the upside of Megill over Canning and Blackburn in redraft leagues.
Pirates Rotation
Andrew Heaney signed a 1-year, $5M deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The money suggests that it will be in a relief role instead of a chance to start but the Pirates rotation (Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, and Bailey Falter) has an open competition for the final spot. Andrew Heaney and Johan Oviedo are going to battle for the final spot coming out of spring. Heaney had a 4.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 17% K:BB. He has been a league-average starter for the majority of his career. Heaney has always done well in terms of K:BB% which has led to SIERA's better than his ERA. The biggest difference between his ERA and SIERA has come from his home run issues (1.54 HR/9). The good thing about moving to PNC Park is that it is a very favorable park for left-handed starters. He is worth a deep mixed-league pick. Johan Oviedo is coming off Tommy John surgery. The last time we saw him in 2023 he posted a 4.31 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and 10% K:BB in 177.2 IP. He is similar to Heaney in that he doesn't miss many bats (20% K) but has a ground ball lean (45% GB). It could all be a moot point because they have Bubba Chandler waiting in the wings. Chandler is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. He has stuff that is arguably better than Jared Jones. Chandler has an electric fastball that plays well at the top of the zone. He also has a plus changeup that is going to allow him to get hitters from both sides of the plate out. Chandler posted a 3.08 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 22% K:BB across Double-A and Triple-A. The Pirates will likely keep Chandler down to start the year but he should be up shortly similar to Paul Skenes last year.
Josh Jung-Rangers-3B
Josh Jung (wrist) is without restrictions to start spring training. Jung played in just 46 games last year. He hit .264 with 7 HR, 19 R, 16 RBI, and 4 SB. It was a limited sample but he cut his strikeout rate from 29% to 26%. The downside is that it isn't supported by his swing decisions (38% O-swing and 15% SwStr). He still hit the ball hard (10% Barrels and 40% Hardhit). He is projected for a .240-.250 AVG with 25 HR. He won't move the needle in stolen bases but he also won't be a zero (5-10 SB). Jung offers a boring profile but the risk is low considering the cost (#205 NFBC) as the 17th 3B off the board.
Josh Hader-Astros-RP
Josh Hader spent the offseason working on his mechanics to improve his performance and to stop tipping his pitches. Hader is coming off a down year (3.80 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 71 IP). His ERA may have been the highest of his career but his skills were still great (38% K, 9% BB, and 2.38 SIERA). He also saved 34 games for the Astros who traded away former closer Ryan Pressly. Hader still has above-average velocity (96.1 mph) with a wipeout slider. He can be penciled in for 30+ saves in a healthy season considering his saves totals the past four seasons have been very consistent (34, 36, 33, and 34). He is being drafted as the third closer off the board behind Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams. The Astros still figure to be a good team despite losing OF Kyle Tucker, 3B Alex Bregman, and SP Justin Verlander.
Rafael Devers-Red Sox-3B
Rafael Devers is not working with the rest of the Red Sox team as he builds up strength in his shoulders. Devers dealt with injuries to both his shoulders last season. He still played in 138 games and eclipsed the 600 PA mark. He hit .272 with 28 HR, 87 R, 83 RBI, and 3 SB. He combines good plate skills (25% K and 11% BB) with elite quality of contact (13% Barrels and 52% Hardhit). He is reportedly set to join his teammates next week so we will learn more about his health when that happens. It is not a good sign that he is still rehabbing coming into spring training but it is hard to make a definitive judgment on his 2025 outlook without knowing his health status and we will learn that once he starts playing in spring games. The drama about his position doesn't matter for fantasy because he is an elite producer when healthy.
Cardinals Outfield Situation
The Cardinals have a log jam in the outfield. They have Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II, and Michael Siani. Burleson and Donovan can play in the infield and seem to be set in the lineup after having strong seasons in 2024. Alec Burleson hit .269 with 21 HR, 71 R, 78 RBI, and 9 SB in 595 PA. He showed impressive skills by being able to make contact (13% K) and hit the ball hard (7% Barrels and 41% Hardhit) there is room for growth in the power department if he hits a few more fly balls and improves against LHP (.195 AVG, .514 OPS, and 47 wRC+). Brendan Donovan is a glue guy for the Cardinals playing multiple positions and being solid across the board (.278 AVG with 14 HR, 65 R, 73 RBI, and 5 SB). He is more valuable the deeper the league is because of his position flexibility and solid skillset. The Cardinals are committed to Jordan Walker getting regular at-bats this year. He is reportedly in a good place mentally and mechanically with the Cardinals' coaching changes. Jordan Walker struggled in 2024 with a .201 AVG, 5 HR, 16 R, 20 RBI, and 1 SB. His strikeout rate ballooned to 28% due to a more aggressive approach (6% BB). It appeared that the game got too quick for him and he struggled with making adjustments. He still has the potential to be a five-category contributor and is an interesting post-hype pick. Lars Nootbaar might have the most fantasy-friendly profile but has struggled to stay healthy. He has played in 108, 117, and 109 GP each of the past three seasons. He has above-average plate skills (20% K and 13% BB) with an above-average quality of contact (10% Barrels and 50% Hardhit). Add in the potential for double-digit stolen bases and he has five-category potential if he is on the right side of BABIP luck. This makes Nootbaar a potential value at pick #264 in NFBC drafts. Burleson is the most expensive (#228) followed by Donovan (#244) with Walker being the cheapest (#272).
Ian Happ-Cubs-OF
Ian Happ has been a productive major-league hitter. His production from a fantasy perspective has come in different shapes and sizes. He has hit for average with lower power numbers without stolen bases. In more recent seasons he has hit for a lower average but more power and stolen bases. In 2024, he hit .243 with 25 HR, 89 R, 86 RBI, and 13 SB. He has solid plate skills (26% K and 12% BB) combined with above-average quality of contact (12% Barrels and 45% Hardhit) that supports his power numbers. Dreaming on a five-category season is going to require Happ to be more aggressive at the plate. His selectivity (12% BB and 27% O-swing) keeps his power numbers up but doesn't allow enough balls in play to hit for a higher average with his strikeout rate (26%).
Yusei Kikuchi-Angels-SP
Yusei Kikuchi signing with the Angels has been viewed as a negative. This is as much about Kikcuhi as it is about the Angels organization. They have not done a good job developing talent in recent years, especially on the pitching side of things. He is also leaving one of the better organizations for getting the most out of their pitchers. Kikuchi had a 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 22% K:BB in 175.2 IP. He was especially dominant in the second half with a 3.49 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 25% K:BB. This came from upping his slider usage from 17% with the Blue Jays to 37% with the Astros. He primarily ditched his curveball in favor of the slider while also slightly backing off his fastball usage. It is unlikely that he forgot this moving from Houston to Los Angeles so Kikuchi offers a nice value for those who are not buying into the Angels narrative.
