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Alex Bregman-Red Sox-3B
Alex Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox, including opt-outs after the 2025 and 2026 seasons. He reportedly chose this higher average annual value contract over longer-term offers from the Tigers and Cubs. Bregman is expected to transition to second base, a position he last played in 2018. This is going to add positional flexibility in most leagues which is an added benefit. The second base pool is also short on top-end talent so his profile projects better at 2B than 3B. Bregman hit .260 with 26 HR, 79 R, 75 RBI, and 3 SB. The stolen bases have not come back since 2018 but he has provided four category production when on the field. Additionally, Fenway Park's favorable hitting environment should enhance his power and counting stats, making him a high-floor, high-upside fantasy option. He hits the ball hard (40% Hardhit), in the air (45% FB), and to the pull side (40% Pull). This is going to allow him to take full advantage of the Green Wall. The Red Sox also should be one of the better lineups in the American League.
Nick Pivetta-Padres-SP
Nick Pivetta signed a 4-year, $55 M deal with the San Diego Padres. The Padres needed to fill out the back end of their rotation after Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. There are also rumors that the Padres are shopping Cease and King so Pivetta provides depth in case they do move someone. Pivetta has pitched his entire career in offensive-friendly parks and divisions. The move to San Diego is a positive environment. Pivetta is coming off 145.2 IP with a 4.14 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 23% K:BB. He continues to have a home run problem (1.73 HR/9) but he has been able to pitch around the homers by limiting baserunners (6% BB). Petco Park should also help slightly lower the home run rate. Pivetta is a back-end starter with quality skills who is going to underperform his advanced metrics (3.31 SIERA) because of the home run rate.
Bo Bichette-Blue Jays-SS
Bo Bichette is a "full go" according to manager John Schneider. He had the pin taken out of his finger which was surgically repaired. He appears healthy heading into Spring Training. Bichette is coming off a disappointing 2024 season that ended early due to injury but was not going well before. He hit .225 with 4 HR, 29 R, 31 RBI, and 5 SB in 81 GP. His plate skills stayed strong (19% K and 6% BB) but his barrel rate fell from 10% in 2023 to 4%. Coming into Spring Training healthy is a huge positive for Bichette as his ceiling is a five-category contributor and his current ADP does not reflect that. A return to his 2023 season (.306 AVG with 20 HR, 69 R, 73 RBI, and 5 SB) would represent a bargain and there is room for more.
Heston Kjerstad-Orioles-OF
Orioles general manager Mike Elias believes that Heston Kjerstad has earned a right to get more at-bats. This sounds good in theory but the moves that the Orioles have made this off-season point in another direction. They brought back Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn to platoon at 1B/DH as well as bringing in outfielders Tyler O'Neill, Ramon Laureano, and Dylan Carlson to compete with Cedric Mullins and Colton Cowser. This is a crowded depth chart that is likely to platoon at multiple spots. Kjerstad is going to have to have a strong spring to even have a chance at regular at-bats. He showed decent skills in his short sample a year ago (.253 AVG with 4 HR, 8 R, 14 RBI, and 1 SB in 39 GP). Kjerstad hits the ball hard and has power upside but his strikeout rate (29% K) is going to keep his average low and be a major factor in his playing time. He is currently going outside the top 350 which makes sense given the lack of guaranteed playing time despite what his general manager said.
Juan Soto-Mets-OF
Juan Soto signed a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets. Soto is coming off a monster year in his only season with the Yankees. He hit .288 with 41 HR, 128 R, 109 RBI, and 7 SB in 157 GP. The move away from Yankee Stadium to a pitcher-friendly Citi Field is going to have a minor impact on his overall value. The Mets lineup is also a step down but it is still a very good lineup with the recent re-signing of Pete Alonso. The good news is that Soto has elite plate skills (18% BB and 17% K) and hits the ball hard (20% Barrels and 57% Hardhit) which is going to play in any park. He is projected for a season very similar to the one he had in 2023 in San Diego (.275 AVG with 35 HR, 97 R, 109 RBI, and 12 SB). Even with regression, he is one of the safest picks in the draft with five-category production.
Blake Snell-Dodgers-SP
Blake Snell signed a 5-year, $182 million contract with the Dodgers. This is the best possible landing spot for Snell. The Dodgers have a track record of getting the most out of pitchers. They also have a dominant lineup that is going to lead to wins and the six-man rotation should theoretically help keep Snell healthy throughout the season. Snell had an up-and-down season in San Francisco. He ended with a 3.12 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 24% K:BB. He continued to miss bats (35% K) at an elite rate. Snell was also dominant in the second half (1.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 29% K:BB) after struggling in the first half. Everything is lined up for Snell to be one of the top pitchers in baseball in Los Angeles.
Pete Alonso-Mets-1B
There was serious doubt about the return of Pete Alonso to the Mets but he ended up signing a 2-year, $54 million deal. It was not what he expected heading into free agency but he was coming off a down year (.240 AVG, 34 HR, 91 R, 88 RBI, and 3 SB). His power numbers dropped off despite still hitting the ball hard (13% Barrels, 46% Hardhit, and 116.3 mph maxEV). It seemed like he made a concentrated effort to hit for a higher average after finishing with a .217 AVG in 2023. However, his ground ball rate was a career-high 42% which at age 30 is a concern. Hitters, especially power hitters, tend to see their ground ball rates spike as they decline. Alonso is not quite at that stage because it is just one year but it is worth keeping an eye on in spring training and the early part of the year. He should be projected for a .240 AVG with 35+ HR and 190+ R+RBI. First base is a weak position in 2024 so there is no discount for Alonso despite coming off a down year. He is the 5th 1B taken behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, and Matt Olson.
Devin Williams-Yankees-NYY
Devin Williams was traded to the New York Yankees for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin. Williams missed a large chunk of 2024 with injury but was elite when on the mound. He had a 1.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 43% K, 13% BB, and 14 SV in 21.2 IP. Williams has elite skills and is the closer for one of the top teams in the league. He does come with significant risk because of his health track record. The same thing that makes him elite (changeup) is the very thing that makes him a health risk. The amount of pronation of his arm that creates his elite changeup also puts a large amount of stress on his body. Prior to last year, he averaged 57 IP the previous three seasons which is a lower-end workload for a reliever but not that far off from guys going around him like Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz. Emmanuel Clase is in a league of his own averaging 72 IP per season over the past three seasons. Williams is an elite closer on a very good team with slightly elevated injury risk which is why he is being taken as the second closer off the board behind Clase and in front of Hader.
Kyle Tucker-Cubs-OF
The Astros made the decision to trade OF Kyle Tucker instead of signing him long-term. He is coming off an injury-plagued 2024 season in which he hit .289 with 23 HR, 56 R, 49 RBI, and 11 SB. Tucker was on his way to his best season to date prior to the injury. He was on pace for a 40+ HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, and 20 SB season. He combines excellent plate skills (11% BB and 16% K) with hard contact (11% Barrels and 45% Hardhit). The move out of Houston to Chicago is neutral because both parks are league average in terms of park factors for left-handed home runs. Any concerns about the injury were alleviated when he returned in September and mashed (.365 AVG with 4 HR in 18 GP). Tucker provides five-category production which is why he is a first-round talent. His mix of floor and ceiling makes him one of the safest options on the board.
Luis Severino-Athletics-SP
Luis Severino signed a 3-year, $67M deal with the Athletics. Severino is coming off a solid but unspectacular year with the Mets. He had a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 13% K:BB across 182 IP. Typically, the Athletics feature a very pitcher-friendly home park but moving out of Oakland and to Sacramento has taken that advantage away. It was nice to see Severino healthy and able to pitch a complete workload but unfortunately, his skills did not return He struck out 28%+ of batters from 2018-2021 but that number fell to below-average in 2024 (21%). His swinging strike rate (9%) suggests the strikeouts aren't coming back. At this point in his career, Severino is a league-average starter in real life and a back-end starter for fantasy purposes due to the lack of strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs-Athletics-SP
Jeffrey Springs was traded for three prospects to the Athletics this offseason. Springs returned from Tommy John surgery in July making seven starts before ending the season on the IL with elbow fatigue. His health is the biggest question mark coming into 2025. In those seven starts he posted he had a 3.27 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 18% K:BB. He was able to miss bats (26% K) and control the strike zone (8% BB) despite averaging 89.8 mph on his fastball. His Stuff+ numbers dropped drastically from previous seasons which leaves another major question mark heading into the new season. The Athletics are going to give him every opportunity to try to get back to form as a starter. Springs is a high-risk pitcher and his current ADP (#252 @ NFBC) makes him a highly volatile draft pick.
Pirates Lineup
The Pirates have four guys who are going to be regulars Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, and Ke'Bryan Hayes. The other spots are likely going to be mixed and matched based on the matchup. They traded for 1B Spencer Horwitz with the idea that he could be an everyday first baseman but he had surgery on his right wrist and is expected to miss 6-8 weeks. Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is penciled in as their starting shortstop but his 93 wRC+ (.269 AVG with 53 R, 43 RBI, and 11 SB) leaves a lot to be desired. They don't really have another option because 2B Nick Yorke or 2B Nick Gonzales can't play shortstop. Gonzalez has 10 HR/10 SB as a ceiling with a batting average that isn't going to hurt you (.250-.260). Yorke was traded to the Pirates and made his debut (.216 AVG with 2 HR/2 SB in 11 GP) late in the season after tearing the cover off the ball in the minors (AA and AAA) with a .303 AVG with 12 HR, 79 R, 72 RBI, and 21 SB in 123 GP. He offers the most upside but also doesn't have a path to regular playing time with Gonzales getting the first shot at second and the recent signing of OF Tommy Pham. Pham has a chance to be the Pirates everyday right fielder and leadoff hitter coming off a .248 AVG with 9 HR, 49 R, 39 RBI, and 7 SB in 478 PA spread across three different teams. The uncertainty of roles is going to make it hard to roster any of them outside of deep mixed leagues.
Dodgers Closer Role
The Dodgers acquired Michael Kopech at the tradeline last year and he was fantastic (1.13 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 22% K:BB). However, the Dodgers went out this offseason and signed two proven closers in Tanner Scott (4-year, $72M) and Kirby Yates (1-year, $13M). Scott was excellent in 2024 with a 1.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 16% K:BB with 22 SV. Yates excelled as the Rangers closer (1.17 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 24% K:BB with 33 SV). The Dodgers have come out and said that Scott is going to be their primary closer to start the year which is nice for fantasy owners to know heading into draft season. Yates still has value because he will likely get 5-10 saves with Scott holding the job and there is always the chance that injury or poor performance leads to him getting more chances. You don't have to look much further than Scott's career 13% walk rate. Unfortunately, Kopech is far enough down the totem pole that he doesn't have much draft-day value.
