Cardinals:
Changing of the guard at catcher - two viable fantasy options?
It was announced during the offseason that veteran catcher Willson Contreras will be making the switch from Catcher to First Base full time. Contreras has delivered 10+ home runs every year (other then 2020) while his career .814 OPS has made him a valuable commodity behind the plate. I love the switch here from a fantasy perspective. The move allows him to play virtually every day and should keep his legs fresh. Depending on your league type you may also get dual-eligibility at C and 1B. Even as he ages he has shown an increase in exit velo (career high 91.8 mph last year) and had the highest hard hit rate (41.1%) of any catcher with 350+ PAs. The hard hit rate would compare favorably to first basemen from last year as well and I see a path here for him to set a new career high in home runs (24).
Taking over the starting catching job for him is Ivan Herrera. The 24-year-old has appeared in games each of the last 3 seasons with STL. Last year he provided solid value filling in for the injured Contreras slashing .301/.372/.428 with 18 XBH and 5 steals over 259 PAs. Herrera has popped double digit homers a few times in the minors and his exit velo (89.3 mph) and hard hit rate (42.1%) compare favorably to his predecessor. At a position that can be starved for offensive talent I like Herrera to provide enough average with the potential added bonus of double digit HR and the occasional steal. A .750 Ops would be a solid season for him behind the dish.
Spring Hitter to Watch: Thomas Saggese
Thomas Saggese got into 18 games for the Cardinals last year posting a .204 with 1 home run and 14 Ks in 52 PAs. He had hit above .300 in the low minors before beginning to struggle with AAA pitching. He hit .207 in 2023 and .253 last year in AAA. The encouraging thing is his K rate stayed the same - around 22% - a usual suspect when a player makes the jump. Despite this a massive positive was Saggese dominated the Arizona Fall league slashing .391/.524/.594 while walking more (16) then striking out (15). His ability to handle 2B, SS and 3B would make him a top bench option if he can make the team. There's a chance for fantasy relevance here if he can earn eligibility at multiple positions.
Around the League:
Chandler Simpson (OF-Rays)
One of the most tantalizing baserunners in the minor leagues, Simpson is coming off a strong 2024 where he finished hitting .351 with 73 steals over 78 games at AA. Add that to a .364 clip and 31 additional stolen bases to begin the season at A+ and you can see why there is some hype. Fantasy owners may look at Simpson and be reminded of Estuery Ruiz and Billy Hamilton two elite baserunners who struggled to get on base. I do think Chandler will be a better hitter than both of these guys. Throughout the low minors Simpson has compiled more walks (104) than strikeouts (91) and his hit tool so far has proven to be strong. Simpson is among the Rays youngsters that got an invite to Spring Training. I would follow along his early at bats especially against established pitching and keep an eye on how he handles better minor league pitching. Tampa has a reputation of getting the most out of their players. If Simpson can handle AAA pitching I see a scenario where he debuts later this year and could save your fantasy season if need steals.
Jonny DeLuca(OF-Rays)
Speaking of Rays Outfielders Jonny DeLuca will get the first crack at the vacant centerfield job. A former Dodgers Prospects, DeLuca made it into 107 games for Tampa last year, slashing .217/.278/.311 with 22 XBH and 16 steals. The batting line is far from inspiring but DeLuca has strong marks as a defender and his sprint speed ranks near the top of the league. DeLuca walked at a 6% clip and struck out 21% of the time, numbers both slightly worse than his performance in the minors. His defense should give him extra time to get his bat going. Double Digit home runs and steals should be the floor here with an outside shot at a 20/20 season. He may end up being a better real life than fantasy player but I like the value here in the final few rounds of your draft if you need some steals.
Yoan Moncada (3B-Angels)
The Veteran 3B signed a 1 year contract with the Angels and should slot into the starting 3B role with the news of the Anthony Rendon injury. Because Moncada never lived up to his lofty prospect status people may have overlooked that he still has compiled a solid .756 career OPS. A lot of this is buoyed by a big 2019 where he hit 25 home runs with a .915 OPS. 2024 was mostly a wash as he was hurt early in the season and returned for just a few weeks at the end. Now Moncada has been all over the place in terms of metrics in his career. He has had several seasons of having a 10%+ walk rate while also having seasons where he struck out in 30%+ of his PAs. One number that does stand out is his max exit velocities have been solid so it is worth watching to see if he can generate some power in the spring. Moncada is probably going closer to 3B50 in drafts. I love taking shots on former top prospects later in their career that have lower perceived fantasy value. I can think of less likely players that could be this years "Jurickson Profar".
Rhys Hoskins (1B-Brewers)
Hoskins first season in Milwaukee was his worst of his career as his .214/.303/.419 line was the worst of across all three triple slash lines categories. Hoskins 28.8% K rate was a career high worst despite his overall contact rates being steady. I did notice a career low babip of .250 as well which depressed the batting average. Hoskins did keep his power numbers in check with a 16.9 HR/FB rate and 26 home runs in 130 games. The ceiling is a .250 batting average but if he can get his K rate down a bit and get a little better luck, 30 home runs isn't out of the question.
Colson Montgomery (SS-White Sox)
Montgomery, the 2021 White Sox First round pick has seen his stock drop a bit after he struggled during a full season at AAA last year. His .214 batting average with 18 home runs and 30% K rate is certainly not the greatest and he will start the season at AAA again as he tries to get ready for a debut sometime in 2025. Montgomery draws his share of walks and projects to be a solid defender at SS. He hit .244 in 2023 vs AA pitching so he is going to need to change his approach as he has struggled to get hit vs minor league pitching. If he is able to cut the Ks he should get some run as the White Sox SS later this year - but I wouldn't count on him to be fantasy relevant.
Justin Martinez (CL-Diamondbacks)
Depending on your league type Closers can be hit or miss in terms of rostering. Justin Martinez is one pitcher I would take a hard look at for 2025. Martinez picked up 8 saves for Arizona last year while pitching to a 2.48 ERA. September was his worst month statistically and just about every underlying stat other than walk rate paints an elite picture. The hard thrower features a 100.3 avg mph fastball which isn't even his best pitch. His most devastating weapon was a 89 mph split finger pitch which opponents hit .098 against with a 54% whiff rate. This was his primary putaway pitch and it's easy to see why he can fool batters dropping speeds that drastically. He was near the top of the league at limiting hard contact and exit velo last year. The only caveat here is Arizona also has A.J. Puk so his saves could be capped a bit with a closer by committee approach. I still like the potential here with the amount of strikeouts per inning he racks up.
Will Wagner (2B-Blue Jays)
The son of recent HOF inductee Billy Wagner, Will showed off his hit skill in a cup of coffee with Toronto last year hitting .305 across 24 games. Wagner has hit at every level of the minor leagues and helped his big league cause by drawing more walks than strikeouts in AAA last season. Wagner turns 26 this July so it would be a little shocking if he was able to add more power - something he has never hit for in the minors. I like Wagner to be able to supply a strong batting average of .280 or better - the problem is going to be positioning. Wagner has primarily played 2B but also has ample innings at 1B and 3B. With the Jays set at first and second third base and DH are his best bets to playing time; if he were to get additional eligibility he makes for a great hit-first bench bat on your fantasy team.
Andrew Painter (SP-Phillies)
Losing all of 2023 and 2024 to Tommy John Surgery, Painter made 6 appearances in the Arizona Fall leagues pitching to a 2.30 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 15.2 innings pitched. The hard throwing right-hander was able to hit 100 mph during his fall return, a great sign for him going into spring training. The Phillies will most likely take it slow with one of the more talented prospects they have had in quite some time. With a veteran team he would need to pitch quite well and need an injury to happen for him to get a rotation spot. I think he could possibly be an option late in the season out of the bullpen for a Phillies team that will be battling for the NL East all season. 2026 is more realistic for him being an impact starter; I am still stashing him in dynasty leagues this year if I can.
JJ Bleday (OF-Athletics)
It took a few years but J.J. Bleday put together his first solid season last year with a .243/.324/.457 line with 20 home runs and 43 doubles. Bleday cut his K rate to under 20% and may have been the beneficiary of being in a surprisingly good lineup also featuring Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler. Belday hit all 20 of his home runs to the pull side and I think some of those doubles could turn into a few extra home runs with the move to a Sacramento ballpark whose right field fence is 5 feet shorter. If he can build on last year a 25+ home run season is possible.
Matt Shaw (3B-Cubs)
Since being taken in the first round of the 2023 draft Shaw has quickly risen through the Cubs farm system and is the top contender to take the starting third base job provided he has a solid spring. He split time at AA and AAA last year finishing the year with 21 home runs and 31 steals combined with an .867 OPS. From a fantasy perspective he has a strong chance to be a multi category contributor and has played 2B, 3B, and SS across the minors. Its a good spot for Shaw to be in as the Cubs have a veteran heavy crew of hitters to lean on while him and fellow prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong blossom. Shaw is generally ranked outside the top 20 3B to open the season but looking at the group ahead of him its not hard to imagine him finishing ahead of those guys and knock on the doorstep of a Top 10 3B fantasy wise in 2025.
Jordan Westburg (2B/3B-Orioles)
Despite being limited to 107 games Westburg was able to mash 49 extra base hits while scoring 57 runs and driving in 63. He is a swing first player who had one of the lower walk rates in the leagues last year but his underlying metrics are strong. If you like looking at expected stats you'll enjoy his .281 xba and .491 xslg. Westburg split his time at 2B and 3B last year making him a great dual-threat eligibility wise but should see most of his time at the hot corner with Jackson Holliday around to man second base. I love Westburg for a big breakout season; I could see him approach a 100 RBI campaign. One interesting thing to watch is his sprint speed ranks in the top 10% among big leaguers but he is only 10 for 14 in stolen bases over 175 career games. It may not sound like much but if he can get to double digit steals you are looking at a key fantasy asset for the next few years.
Mike Trout (OF-Angels)
Trout announced Monday that he will be shifting to rightfield for the 2025 season. A position change was much rumored for Trout throughout the off-season and the hope is the move out of center can keep Trout healthier by lessening the amount of ground he needs to covers. It will be a bit sad to not see him patrolling center as he has since 2011 but hopefully this keeps his bat in the lineup. Trout has only made it over 100 games once in the past 4 seasons and while he isn't the dual threat on the bases he used to be I think if healthy there is enough pop here for him to be a good bat for your fantasy club. He has seen his hard hit numbers take a bit of a dip but he is only 22 home runs away from 400 for his career and if he can hit that this season it would be a nice step going forward towards the 500 mark if he can stay healthy for a few more years.
