Adley Rutschman
Adley went 0-4 with 2 Ks in an empty day at the plate. I pegged Adley as one of my favorite backstops to target and drafted him on plenty of teams this year. He rewarded me by having the worst season of his career. He slashed .250/.319/.394, all three figures of which are career lows. There were verifiable changes in his approach that also led to a career low BB% (9.3%) and 1.6% increase in K rate compared to 2023. Adley's chase rate spiked to 28.2%, up 4.8% from last year, and his Meatball Swing% dipped 3.2%, all while his swing percentage increased 2.9%. In English, he is much more aggressive compared to last season, and wasn't aggressive at the right pitches. The good news is that his exit data has largely remained the same, so we can confidently point to a less optimal approach as a point of his struggle. This means I'm not worried about Adley in 2025, and will gladly buy low.
Julio Rodriguez
Rodriguez chipped into his redemption tour by going 3-5 with 2 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI in a monster day at the plate. He hit three balls hard. The fantasy first round pick is having a well-documented disappointing season, but there are still redeemables. He uses 95th Percentile batspeed to produce a .433 xwOBACON, which is actually a career high! His K/BB ratio is right in line with the last two seasons. His Whiff rate, chase rate, and swing rates are also right in line with his last two seasons. The issue with Julio is that some of these rates are naturally suboptimal. His whiff and chase rate didn't change much, but both were below 15th Percentile this season. These kinds of contact and decision issues can lead to stretches of bad play. It comes with the profile. I am absolutely targeting him as a bounceback candidate in 2025.
Jacob DeGrom
DeGrom went 3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K in an abbreviated but strong start. It was only his second start of the season, as he now has only 6.2 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K underneath his belt. He sat 96-99, threw all four pitches, and collected a 29% CSW, so this was a very healthy start for him. In 2025 drafts, DeGrom will not be that much different than he was in 2024 drafts: a super late round flier to stash on the IL. He is 36 right now and had just 19 starts in the past three years, but the production across those starts is Cy Young-esque. I'm still going to choose him as my stash guy in drafts next year.
Kyle Tucker
Tucker looked like his pre-injury self going 4-5 with 3 R, HR, RBI. He hit four balls hard. Tucker missed a big chunk of the season after fouling a ball off of his leg. It wasn't supposed to be that long of an IL stint but obviously the injury was worse than originally thought. Nonetheless Tucker has been excellent in his half season of work. He is posting a career low GB% (26.8) and career high FB% (42.9). His .405 wOBA AND xwOBA are also both career highs. Draft Tucker confidently in the first round next year.
Teoscar Hernandez
Hernandez went 2-4 with R, HR, 2 RBI. The homer was his 30th of the year. The slugger surprisingly did not have a career year while playing in a formidable Dodgers lineup. His .452 xwOBACON, while still elite, was actually the third lowest of his career, and his .249 xBA was the lowest since 2019. That being said, there are no outstanding red flags. His whiff, chase, and swing rates were right in line with career averages. If there is a small concern, it is that his 47.2 GB% was a career high in a full season, but there is no reason to believe that indicates decline. Draft him confidently in 2025.
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