Spencer Arrighetti (SP - HOU) - The childish part of me had a really hard time not titling this "Spencer Spaghetti". Arrighetti has, in the space of one season, gone from unusable to possible streamer to "use most of the time". Pretty amazing really, and it's primarily on the strength of a control improvement that I simply did not see coming based on both his minor league track record and his first 3 months in the majors. He's been able to miss bats all the way up the ladder, plus his velo is up this season by over a mph on average, so the K's were always likely to be there. The problem was that the combination of a low GB%, average quality of contact allowed, and a bunch of walks was going to be flammable. It was, at least until early July, but in his last 12 starts Arrighetti has managed QS in 8 of them, and he's only had one disastrous outing (where he was saved by a scoring correction, making 6 of the 9 runs he allowed in less than an inning unearned). The Astros have been experts at getting the most from every SP that they could for many years now, so maybe this shouldn't have been all that much of a surprise....but I was still surprised at first. Now, I see a guy that has ranked 13th in xFIP since 8/1, and I'm thinking that I'll potentially have him ranked as an SP3 (top 36) come March. That's just baseball, Suzyn.
JT Realmuto (C - PHI) - Realmuto singled and homered on Monday, giving him 14 for the year and, more importantly, 7 since 8/1 in just 37 games. . The consensus #2 catcher coming into 2024, are we certain that he's a top-10 C heading into 2025? In doing a bit of research on this, it's pretty amazing how many solid catchers over the years have their last productive season at age 33. For every Carlton Fisk or Gabby Hartnett that kept producing into their later 30's, there are 10 Mike Lieberthals: catching is a physically demanding position that puts a lot of mileage on your body. Realmuto appeared to be declining a bit last season, while this year is really tough to say with the injuries whether you should read into the exit velo (further decline) or SS% and HH% (rebounds). Even during this resurgence over the past 6-7 weeks, he's only been the 5th most productive catcher offensively. Right now, I could make a case for his 2025 rank to be anywhere from 5th to 11th depending on the format and how much risk I wanted to take on. I'm betting that'll be too cheap for where most people have him, so regrettably, one of my long-time favorites isn't likely to grace too many of my teams next year.
Garrett Mitchell (OF - MIL) - Mitchell is a player that I'll likely be targeting as my "OF6" in standard formats next year, a spot that I traditionally reserve for a "significant upside with flaws" player. To sum up briefly, he's a "young" 26: he's never played more than 96 games in a season and he's been a pro since '21. Yes, that means he's injury prone, but that's why we have reserves. Mitchell has excellent strike zone discipline, above average raw power, and above average speed. There are contact issues, but that's why he's a OF6 target and not an OF2. He's been on a 20/20 pace since August 1, and while the .254 AVG over that span won't set your heart afire, the .338 OBP is pretty solid. Finally, he's a plus defender, so again, that buys him some slack. This is a guy that could put up a 25/25 season with a plus OBP seemingly out of nowhere next year, so I'll be looking to snipe him in the late-game everywhere.
Matt Chapman (3B - SF) - Chapman walked, tripled, and hit an inside-the-park HR on Monday night during the Giants win over Arizona, as the D-Backs continue to try and make the games that I'm attending this weekend mean something. Chapman is now hitting 249/332/466 on the season in what is likely his best year since 2019. Chapman is a wonderful real-life player: a terrific defender with excellent plate discipline, decent contact ability, and very good power. He's been a major disappointment in fantasy for the past 4 years though, as a flyball-heavy approach has kept the AVG down and he has never shown any speed to speak of. Enter 2024, where Chapman has stolen 4 more bases (15) than he had in the first 875 games of his career, and the flyball-heavy approach has tempered itself slightly. The exit velocities remain top-tier, and the contact ability rebounded to above average from a few down years. Looking ahead to 2025, do we take a shot once again? That park in SF has acted as the HR suppressor that it is wont to, as 18 of Chapman's 27 HRs have come on the road. Still, I look at 3B, and where do you go after Ramirez, Devers, and Riley? Machado is probably 4th for me, and a full year of Jazz Chisholm in NY might even have him breaking into the top 4. 6th, for me, certainly could be Chapman. You can make a case for the breakout year of Alec Bohm or the youngsters Caminero, Vientos, or Westburg, but I think he's in that value range, which is crazy for a guy drafted 33rd at the position this season.
David Festa (SP - MIN) - Festa will definitely be a target of mine for the back-end of my rotation in 2025, as a lackluster first few starts and some poor luck have him posting a 4.80 ERA through 60 IP. He's put up a 3.60 ERA through 10 starts in the second half, showing excellent bat-missing ability. I'm surprised at the very low GB%, because that was never an issue in the minors, but the control has been and that's the thing that I'd like to see step forward a bit next season. Being able to miss bats is a big positive though, and the control isn't in the "prohibitive to success" range. I also expect that he'll be handled a bit less conservatively next season: he's only gone more than 5 IP once so far this year.
