Oneil Cruz-Pirates-SS
Oneil Cruz was 0-4 with a strikeout against the Brewers. Cruz has come on strong in the second half (.297 AVG with 7 HR, 30 R, 32 RBI, and 15 SB). On the year, he is hitting .263 with 21 HR, 71 R, 76 RBI, and 22 SB. He has shown enough development that he still has an incredibly high ceiling. This was his first full season in the majors and he went 20 HR/20 SB with elite quality of contact metrics (16% Barrels and 56% Hardhit). Cruz and the Pirates made an adjustment to his swing to address his issue with left-handed pitchers. Since June 1, he has hit .329 with a .968 OPS against southpaws. It is a small sample for an already volatile matchup (L on L) but it is worth noting. A small improvement against LHP moves his AVg projection from the .230-.240s into the .250-.260's which makes Cruz a legit five-category contributor. It also gives the Pirates confidence to put him in the lineup on a nightly basis instead of resting him against rough lefties.
Willy Adames-Brewers-SS
Willy Adames was 1-5 with a stolen base against the Pirates. Adames is hitting .251 with 32 HR, 90 R, 111 RBI, and 21 SB. This has been a true career year for Adames. He has set career highs in HR (32), R (90), RBI (111), and SB (21). He has been the #13 hitter in terms of auction dollars earned. Adames produced excellent value based on where he was drafted. Most of what he has done is backed up by solid skills. He has good plate skills (11% BB and 25% K). Adames also hits the ball hard (12% Barrels and 40% Hardhit). He is bordering on the line of too many fly balls (50% FB) which is eventually going to impact his average in a negative way but it has allowed him to hit more home runs. Unfortunately, heading into 2025 this is likely his best season so he is going to be overdrafted.
Dylan Crews-Nationals-OF
Dylan Crews was 0-4 with a run scored against the Royals. Through 27 GP, Crews is hitting .183 with 3 HR, 9 R, 8 RBI, and 9 SB. The batting average is going to immediately stick out but his underlying skills paint a different picture (7% BB, 23% K, and 6% Barrel%). He has had bad luck (.207 BABIP) to start his career. There are some concerns heading into 2025 which are his batting average and power. The batting averages should come up with better luck and an offseason to make adjustments but the power numbers are concerning. A 60% ground ball rate is not going to cut it at the major league level. He hits the ball hard (45% Hardhit) but it isn't going to translate into fantasy production unless he raises his launch angle. As currently constructed Crews is a 10 HR/30+ SB profile which is valuable but 20 HR/30 SB would take him into the upper echelon of fantasy players.
Mitch Keller-Pirates-SP
Mitch Keller went 5 IP and gave up 3 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's against the Brewers. Keller has a 4.25 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 178 IP. He has posted an almost identical season to 2023 (4.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP). The only real difference is that his strikeout rate fell from 26% to 21% which was not all that surprising considering his swinging strike rate (9% SwStr) does not support a 25%+ strikeout rate. Keller has flashed potential at certain times but has never been able to put it all together for a full season. His issue is that he cannot find a reliable offspeed pitch that he can get hitters to swing through. This makes him highly volatile because he relies on BABIP to keep his ratios in line. Until he can find a true out pitch, Keller is going to be a league-average starter.
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