Justin Steele-Cubs-SP
Justin Steele went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 0 BB, and 10 K's against the Tigers. Steele has been excellent this year with a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. The only downside to Steele in fantasy has been the measly four wins compared to 16 a year ago. His ERA is the same, WHIP is lower, and he is averaging the same number of innings per start but only has four wins which is a reflection of this crazy game we play in fantasy baseball. The core skills are above average (24% K and 7% BB). He keeps the ball in the park (0.78 HR/9). Steele will get dinged by some for only having two pitches (FB and SL) but the way he manipulates his slider allows him to have success with hitters from both sides of the plate. He gets a plus matchup against the Pirates in a pitcher-friendly park next week.
Jeffrey Springs-Rays-SP
Jeffrey Springs went 3.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 7 H, 2 BB, and 3 K's against the Athletics. Springs has now made five starts since coming off the IL. He has a 4.50 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. He is missing bats (25% K and 14% SwStr) and controlling the strike zone (6% BB). Springs has been unfortunate in the small sample on balls in play (.385 BABIP) and home runs (17% HR/FB). Both should normalize and help bring his WHIP down. There is a major red flag in his profile though. His velocity is down 1.7 mph (91.7 mph to 90 mph) and his Stuff+ has dropped from 100 to 89. Hopefully, we will see his stuff uptick through the end of the year if not we will have to adjust our baseline for Springs heading into 2025. His next start is a good one against the Mariners in Seattle, a pitcher-friendly environment.
Gerrit Cole-Yankees-SP
Gerrit Cole went 6 IP and gave up 0 ER on 1 H, 5 BB, and 2 K's against the Guardians. Cole has now made 11 starts this year and has a 3.72 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His strikeout (27% K) and walk rates (7% BB) are in line with last year but still down from his peak years. He has been hurt by a .309 BABIP which is why his 3.60 SIERA is lower than his ERA. It is still a significant drop for Cole and probably closer to what we should expect out of him going forward. He is no longer the best pitcher in baseball. He is an above-average starter on a good team. His next matchup is a good one against the Nationals on the road.
Gavin Williams-Guardians-SP
Gavin Williams went 4.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 4 H, 4 BB, and 5 K's against the Yankees. Through 10 GS, Williams has a 5.13 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. His underlying skills are solid (24% K, 8% BB, and 0.95 HR/9) which is why his 3.88 SIERA is much lower than his ERA. Williams has been unfortunate on balls in play (.336 BABIP) and men left on base (68% LOB). In his short career (125 IP) he has a .295 BABIP and 74% LOB). Not all of it can be attributed to luck though because he was successful last year with his fastball and slider combo. Batters are hitting .321 AVG with a .853 OPS against his fastball and .353 AVG and .853 OPS against his slider. Unfortunately, until he can get those two pitches sorted out things aren't going to turn around despite decent skills.
Nick Lodolo-Reds-SP
Nick Lodolo went 4.2 IP and gave up 5 ER on 2 H, 3 BB, and 9 K's against the Pirates. He was dominant and then the wheels fell off in the fifth due to some spotty defense behind him. Lodolo has now made 21 starts and has a 4.76 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His underlying skills are not bad (24% K, 7% BB, and 45% GB). SIERA is a believer in his skills (3.82) which is a huge improvement over his 4.55 ERA. Lodolo like a lot of Reds pitchers are hurt by their home park being a hitter-friendly environment. He has a 6.09 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and 1.32 HR/9) at home compared to a 3.05 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 0.80 HR/9) on the road. The unfortunate part is that there is nothing that he can do about this in the short term. It is a small sample that normally has a large variance but Great American Ballpark has proven to be a difficult park for pitchers. This makes it hard to roster Lodolo in mixed leagues because he is only viable when starting on the road
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