Johnkensy Noel (OF - CLE) - Noel homered for the 3rd time in the past 4 games on Sunday, giving him 12 in his first 112 ABs in the majors. He's 18th in maximum exit velo this year and knocking on the top-50 in EV50, and the only player younger than him higher up on the max list is Junior Caminero. Suffice it to say, there's a lot of power here with even more likely to come for the 23 year old. The problem will likely always be the contact though, as a 45% chase rate, 15.2% swinging strike rate, and a massive FB/pull approach could lead to some pretty ugly batting averages. He's a really high standard deviation player, and he's the kind of guy that I'd strongly consider peddling this offseason in dynasty formats if I wanted to reduce some risk...there's certainly a better than 50% chance that his value is about as high as it'll ever be right now.
Maikel Garcia (3B - KC) - Garcia hit his 7th HR of the season against the Phillies on Sunday, just his 2nd HR since May 14th. That's frankly pretty amazing for a guy with EV that ranks 66th out of 256 qualifiers right now. Of course, the launch angle is 234th out of those 256, so the culprit is easy to spot. The .270 BABIP doesn't make a lot of sense though, because an above average EV and well above average speed generally leads to an above average BABIP, not one that's about 25 points below average. So, there's been a lot of bad luck.....that's not really news to anyone that has stuck it out as one of his owners. 30 for 31 in steals is great, he's just 24, and the contact ability is borderline excellent....I'm sure I'll be suckered back in come springtime. He's Yandy Diaz with more speed, and he's younger than Diaz was when Yandy broke into the majors, but with 2 years as a starter under his belt. I'm still optimistic.
Reynaldo Lopez (SP - ATL) - Lopez has come back from the IL stint even better than he was before, going 11 innings and allowing just 2 runs with 17 K's in 2 outings against the Phillies and Nationals. There's been plenty of legitimate improvement from Lopez this year, particularly in terms of missing bats, but the one thing that gives me a bit of pause is the HR rate. He's never been a guy that keeps the ball in the park particularly well, and all of the metrics that you might look at here (GB%, EV, barrel%, HH rate) suggest that he's been pretty darn lucky this year to allow about half as many HRs as he normally does. I'm not sure Lopez projects much better than average the rest of the way for me, which of course has value. He's still probably a top-50 SP if we were drafting for the last 6 weeks, possibly top-40.
Addison Barger (3B/OF - TOR) - Since Barger started playing every day a little over a week ago, he's 8-31 with 2 2B and 3 HR, including another HR on Sunday against the Angels. His situation has looked a lot like a young player pressing thus far, with chase rates significantly over what he's always shown in the minors. Knowing that you're likely to get consistent playing time can do wonders for a young player's mindset, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's we are seeing with Barger over this past week-plus. At his best, he can give you a solid OBP, average-plus power, and average speed with eligibility at 3B and OF....definitely deep-league and AL-only league worthy right now, and the potential exists for a bit more than that (think 20/10 with a solid OBP but below average contact....maybe Ian Happ-ish?).
Geraldo Perdomo (SS - ARI) - Perdomo homered late in Sunday's 7-5 win in Boston, and he's now hitting 325/393/525 in the month of August with 3 HR and 4 SB. He's always been a terrific contact hitter (contact rate of 89.8%), but the power has moved from "near zero" to below average this year, as the EV has jumped over 2 mph. He has an excellent eye and makes contact well, so if that power can get to average there's a real player here. The big problem for Perdomo is that Jordan Lawlar is younger, better, and not far away. Perhaps Lawlar at 3B makes sense next season with Eugenio Suarez on a $15 million club option for 2025....personally, that's the decision I'd be leaning toward heading into spring. For now, Perdomo is a fairly high-floor player that is still young enough to have some upside.....probably fringy for standard-sized formats but very playable in deeper leagues.
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