Shota Imanaga, SP, Cubs
Shota Imanaga got shelled by the Mets on Friday, allowing 10 runs on 11 hits and a walk while striking out 3 over 3 innings. Imanaga looked due for regression, but no one was expecting him to have one of the worst starts of any pitcher on the season. His ERA rose from 1.89 to 2.96 from this start alone. He has established himself as a fantasy ace, although his fly ball tendencies (34.4% ground ball rate) and average quality of contract metrics (88.6 mph average exit velocity and 38.2% hard-hit rate) make him a risk for blow-up outings like this one. He allowed 3 home runs in this start, bringing his total to 7 over his past 5 starts. I worry the home runs will continue to be an issue in these warm summer months at Wrigley, but he should still have his moments and perform as a top-20 starting pitcher for fantasy.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Reds
Andrew Abbott impressed on Friday against the Red Sox, striking out 10 over 5.2 innings. He allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and a walk. It's been a strange season so far for Abbott, who has been pretty effective this season with a 3.40 ERA despite his strikeout rate plummeting. After striking out 120 batters in 109.1 innings in 2023, he has only 70 through 84.2 this season. He has been able to limit runs by avoiding hard contact, with his 31.4% hard-hit rate ranking in the 90th percentile, but it's hard to view that as sustainable with such low strikeout rates. He picked up 14 of his 19 whiffs on his fastball in this start (56% whiff rate), which is also extremely unusual. It would have been more encouraging to see noticeable improvements on his secondaries, as a 56% whiff rate on his fastball isn't something I expect him to be able to replicate going forward. He remains just a streaming option for fantasy unless he can show consistent strikeout improvement in his next few starts.
Carlos Rodon, SP, Yankees
Carlos Rodon got rocked by the Braves, giving up 8 runs (7 earned) on 11 hits and 2 walks over 3.2 innings. This is following a 5 run outing against the Red Sox during his last start, so it's looking like the window to sell high on Rodon has closed. Going into this start, he was sporting a 90.7 mph average exit velocity (11th percentile), a 43.5% hard-hit rate (18th percentile), and a 33.9% ground ball rate (11th percentile). Those are dangerous-looking metrics, especially for a pitcher whose home is Yankee Stadium, and his xFIP of 4.39 shows that he's lucky to have a 3.86 ERA. There are many safer options than Rodon, who looks more like an average fantasy arm than a great one.
Josh Lowe, OF, Rays
Josh Lowe went 3 for 5 with 2 runs, 4 RBI, and 2 home runs on Friday. He is starting to show signs of life after a painfully slow start to the season, as he now has four extra-base hits and two multi-hit games in his past four. His .255/.278/.461 slash line before this game might not show it, but he actually has an excellent barrel rate of 14.3% and a hard-hit rate of 44.6%. It may be a sign of better days ahead, and this could be the breakout that Lowe's fantasy owners have been waiting for. It's safer to view him as a top-40 outfielder for fantasy, but I'm not ruling out a return to form as the top-20 version we saw in 2023.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Guardians
Josh Naylor went 2 for 4 with a double, one run, and two runs batted in on Friday. It brings his season totals to 41 R, 19 HR, and 57 RBI. He's enjoying the best season of his career so far, but the good news is that there are signs pointing to it getting even better. His .241 batting average has been the one negative of his performance, but his xBA is a much better .275. His xSLG of .508 ranks in the 91st percentile, and if he sees some positive batting regression then he will be a true four-category standout for fantasy. You can make the case for Naylor as a top-5 fantasy first baseman, ahead of even Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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