These SPs are magicians...but will their tricks last? Read on for Starting Pitchers with Tricks Revealed and the question of questions: Can the Magic Last?
José Berríos SP TOR
What's his Trick? He owns a nice Chase Rate of 30%, bolstered by a low BB Rate of 6.6%, which combines to create more Ks and less BBs, which is nice.
Tricks Revealed: A low 18% K Rate and a high 44% Hard Hit Rate combines for a lot of damage-worthy contact by opposing hitters.
Can the Magic Last? Berríos has 20 less Ks than IP, which means the hard contact does not come with built in counting numbers for your SP slot. He's shown (in 2023) that he can maintain the balancing act so I guess you gotta ask yourself one question: Do you feel lucky?
Seth Lugo SP KC
What's his Trick? 9 Wins, an ERA of 2.13 and a WHIP of 1.02 over 84.1 IP. He kept the ERA and WHIP down during his first full year as SP in 2023 and he has a fine 5.6% BB Rate.
Tricks Revealed: Nearly a 9% Barrel rate and a low 22% K Rate, for starters. He doesn't K a ton and we've yet to see him top 146 IP in his mid-career swap from RP to SP.
Can the Magic Last? Lugo has provided incredible ratio value so far in 2024. The new world of hitting is harder than hell suggests Seth might be here to stay. If he's really this good, heads should roll at StatCast. Sell high? Yes indeed.
Reese Olson SP DET
What's his Trick? Well, tonight the Brewers blasted Olson to kingdom come (8 Earned runs on 12 Hits in 4 IP), so his trick was invisible on Friday. However, Olson pulled the trick in 2023 with 103 Ks in 103 IP and a nice WHIP of 1.12. He owns a nice 30% Chase Rate, low 5% Barrel Rate and good Ground Ball Rate of 55%.
Tricks Revealed: A low 20% K Rate and a middling 8% BB Rate leaves a lot to chance in terms of contact.
Can the Magic Last? Olson's combo of low Barrel Rate and high Ground Ball rate should limit the damage, but his low K Rate and Mid BB Rate means it might be time to sell high if anyone is interested in giving up some good hitting for him.
Ben Lively SP CLE
What's his Trick? Ben's got a 2.84 ERA with 5 Wins and a 1.16 WHIP over 50.2 IP.
Tricks Revealed: His StatCast page is bathed in blue, most notably: 20% Whiff rate does not go well with a 42% Hard Hit Rate, as many of his pitches cannot escape harm. Should you, as Bob Marley advised, Lively up Yourself? If history is any indicator, probably not, but you should continue to ride the wave till it crashes and then Keep On Moving.
Can the Magic Last? His groundball rate is low, low, low at the 6th percentile at 30%. Lively's middling K Rate of 23% and middle of the road 7.4% BB Rate mean you should temper your expectations and keep an eye on his sleeves for extra cards. Sell high.
Tyler Anderson SP LAA
What's his Trick? An ERA of 2.37 over 76 IP and a WHIP of 1.13 with 5 Wins.
Tricks Revealed: Just 50Ks backed by a tepid 25% Whiff Rate and an alarming 10.5% BB Rate.
Can the Magic Last? Tyler gets Barrelled nearly 10% of the time and owns a ground ball rate in the 22nd percentile, which means some implosions may be on his horizon. His xERA of 4.46 suggests that Tyler Anderson may be F for Fake when it comes to trustworthy SP. Sell high, don't buy.
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