Pablo Lopez, SP, Twins
Pablo Lopez had another poor outing on Thursday, where he gave up 7 runs on 4 hits and 6 walks. He struck out 4 over 4 innings. This is the third time in his last four starts that he's given up 6 or more runs, and the lack of control was especially concerning in this one. Lopez has been getting hit hard this season, but this is the first time that control seemed to be a major problem, too. His ERA on the season is now at 5.45 and has definitely done more harm than good to the fantasy teams that he is on. He still possesses ace upside, but this extreme volatility makes it tough to feel good about him as the best pitcher on your fantasy staff. There is still plenty of time for him to turn it around, but there is definitely concern that last season might end up being an outlier in his career.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Guardians
Tanner Bibee allowed 3 runs (2 earned) on 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7 over 5 innings against the Royals. The most notable part of this start is that he threw his slider 48% of the time compared to 37% for his fastball. Coming into this start, he had thrown his fastball 46% of the time and his slider 28%. His biggest flaw by far this season has been the effectiveness of his fastball, allowing a .340 batting average against and .573 SLG against the pitch. He allowed his slider to dominate in this one, inducing 8 whiffs (40% whiff rate), and even his fastball looked better, getting 7 whiffs (32%). It will be worth monitoring in his next start to see if he continues this trend of lower fastball usage, as it could be what he needs to return that top-40 starting pitcher value that people drafted him for.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2 for 3 with a three-run home run on Thursday. It brings his season slash line to .295/.388/.426 to go along with 7 HR, 28 R, and 30 RBI. He continues to display superhuman raw power potential, with a 117.6 mph max exit velocity and a 59.4% hard-hit rate that both rank in the top 1 percent of the league. He's also a rare slugger who excels in batting average, with a 95th percentile xBA of .304. Everything about his profile says he should be one of the game's best hitters, yet he has only 7 home runs over 2 months into the season. That can all be explained by one thing, his tendency to hit the ball on the ground. His 53.2% ground ball rate is the seventh highest among all qualified hitters, leading to an average launch angle of just 5.4 degrees and a sweet-spot rate of just 28.2% (12th percentile). He is a frustrating player to own in fantasy because it always seems like he is just one small change away from being a perennial MVP candidate, yet he has the same ground ball issues year after year. He remains a great, but not elite, fantasy first baseman, but always watch out for him to start hitting the ball in the air more often.
Christopher Morel, 3B/OF, Cubs
Christopher Morel went 1 for 3 with a two-run home run and a walk on Thursday. He's slashing .205/.316/.400 on the season with 12 HR, 30 R, 39 RBI, and 6 SB. The counting stats have made him a useful fantasy player so far, but his underlying metrics paint him as a truly elite option. He has a .377 xwOBA (92nd percentile), a .500 xSLG (89th percentile), and a .265 xBA that display him as one of the unluckiest players this season. His biggest improvement thus far has been his plate discipline, cutting his 31% strikeout rate in 2023 all the way down to 21.9% this year, in addition to an excellent 12.5% walk rate. The walks will improve his value in points leagues and OBP leagues, and the reduced strikeout rate should lead to more contact that allows his power to shine through even more. It seems like Morel has taken a real step forward this season, and it's only a matter of time before his production starts to show it, too. He represents a great buy-low candidate if you need 3B or OF help.
Yimi Garcia, RP, Blue Jays
Yimi Garcia picked up his 4th save of the season while filling in for injured Jordan Romano. He allowed a two-run home run to Ryan O'Hearn but still managed to get out of the inning to secure a 6-5 victory. Garcia has been the best relievers on the Blue Jays by far in 2024, putting up a 2.16 ERA with a 33:7 K:BB over 25 innings pitched. The two runs in this outing hurt his numbers, but coming into the day he had a 1.80 xERA (99th percentile), .156 xBA (99th percentile), 36.6% chase rate (98th percentile), and a 34.8% strikeout rate (96th percentile). He is one of the most dominant relievers in the entire major leagues, and I wouldn't be surprised if he keeps the closing job once Romano eventually makes it back from elbow inflammation. Garcia should be rostered in every league where saves matter because you are getting an excellent closer for the time being, and possibly for the rest of the season if he never gives up the job.
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