Javier Assad
The Cubs announced on Thursday that Javier Assad is heading to the 15-Day IL with a right forearm extensor strain. The severity is not known at this point in time. Assad last threw on June 23rd, going 4.1 IP and 4ER against the Mets. He struck out no batters, the only time that has happened this season. While it may seem counter intuitive, now might be a good time to sell Assad. He's gotten fairly lucky pretty much his whole career, astoundingly. Assad has posted a LOB% north of 83% all three years of his career, a well above average rate. At the same time, he has routinely outperformed his xERA, FIP and xFIP. In all three seasons, Assas had posted above a 4.00 across all three of those metrics, but ERA's below 3.11 all three years. It's actually an impressive string of luck. I'm ultimately bearish on Assad because he doesn't do anything well at all for a pitcher. His Whiff and Chase rates are well below average (9th and 7th Percentile). He doesn't get grounders (44th Percentile) and doesn't throw hard (91.7). Sell now why you can.
David Festa
MLB's 99th Overall prospect and Minnesota's 5th made his big league debut on Thursday, going 5IP, 7H, 5ER, 1BB, 2K. It was a rough outing for the rookie, who managed to only gather a 21% CSW due to zero whiffs with the fastball. He did top out at 97, sitting 94-96. Festa has been a punchout machine in the minors, sending 35.1% of hitters back to the bench, a super impressive figure as a starter. So it was odd to see him do so poorly in that department today. As a result, I wouldn't write him off just yet. I'd keep a close eye on him, but if the fastball still doesn't get much miss in the next few starts, you can probably relax.
Other Notes...
Luis Robert
Robert was the only bright spot in the White Sox lineup on Thursday, going 2-3 with a solo HR. Since coming back from injury, Robert is slashing .200/.294/.480. The swing decisions and discipline have been atrocious, as he's punched out 27 times while walking only twice since returning as well. He's swinging in-zone at a career low 69.3% when his career average is 80.2%, at the first pitch at a career low 28.4% when his career average is 47.4%, and at meatballs at a career low 68.6% when his career average is 88.1%. I feel like I've seen this overcorrection before, where players who have contact issues (34.1% Whiff) are told to swing less in an effort to cut down their strikeouts. The approach backfires when it inevitably doesn't work, as players who swing and miss often need to swing more. This is why his average is so low (.211 xBA), but slugging is so high (.465 xSLG). His batted ball quality is still excellent! Swing more Luis!
Heliot Ramos
Ramos went 0-4 on Thursday, punching out and walking once each. The former first round pick was a hot waiver-add when he destroyed the baseball in early June, posting ten multi-hit games in a 14 game span. In his last 9 games, Ramos has gone just 5-41, so quite the turn from his hot streak a couple weeks ago. His batted ball profile is super interesting. Ramos has been HAMMERING the baseball, posting 92nd Percentile or better rates in xwOBA, EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit%. The main issue is that he Whiffs a ton (30.9%, 14th Percentile), but I don't believe it will be a large issue. Ramos ambushes meatballs (85.2%, 22nd Rank if he qualified), is a league average chaser (52nd Percentile), and doesn't make contact as often when he chases (44.3%, MLB Avg = 57.9%). So while the contact skills are so-so, it seems that Ramos is a great decision maker with bat speed. Buy.
Willi Castro
One of the best hitters on the Twins bats towards the end of their lineup, and it feels like nobody is talking about him. Castro went 2-5 with 2R and RBI. In the month of June, Castro is slashing .300/.394/.522 and has a .339 wOBA (69th Percentile) on the year. He comes with multi-position qualification at OF, 3B, SS, and 2B, so he actually qualifies for more positions than he doesn't. He's riding a 10 game hit streak that features 11R, 2HR, 9RBI. Under the hood, he's fairly average across the board. His .352 BABIP is on the high side, but his .258 xBA suggests there is some justification. We may see some regression, but I don't think it will be too severe. I love Castro as a fill in.
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