Jordan Hicks
We see starters turn into relievers all the time, but rarely is it that relievers, especially closers, turn back into starters. Hicks went five innings surrendering one earned run on a solo homer, but only punched out one batter. He now sports a 2.38 and 1.11 WHIP. I want to use a sample-size argument, but Hicks now has 53 starter innings under his belt across ten starts this season. That being said, his 3.53 xERA and 3.78 xFIP indicate this profile is as sketchy as it seems. Hicks is a groundball machine, but a slightly below average punchout rate (19.9%) and average walk rate (8.2%) put him in the bin of mediocre pitchers. He used to be a strikeout guy, but now that he starts, the velo is much lower compared to his closer days, leading to more contact against the sinker. Hicks has a .240xBA against, .272 BABIP against, and 76.1% LOB so I won't say he's getting lucky, but rather he is executing insanely well, with only margin luck in his favor - both of which combine for excellent results. I'm not sure how long one can keep this up, I'd be impressed if he can sustain this level. Right now, I view him as a streamer starter, and would certainly sell high if you have pitching depth.
Josh Smith
Smith went 2-4 on Sunday, and, as a surprise to many, actually featured the highest OPS in the Texas starting lineup. Smith has been starting in place of the injured Josh Jung, and doing a fair job despite not bringing much pop to the table. Smith is much like Arraez - a grinding hitter that will discipline an at-bat to death. He doesn't chase, doesn't whiff, and while the exit velos are comfortably below average, he does find the sweet spot often (38.1%, 78th Percentile), which allows him to hit for average. More importantly, Smith bats fourth, which hypothetically should give him RBI opportunities, although that hasn't come to fruition yet. On the surface, you can make an argument to sell him as a third baseman who is seventh in average at the position batting fourth in a good lineup, and I think you should do just that.
Tanner Bibee
Bibee tossed seven innings of one earned run ball (solo homer) but also struck out six and walked only one. That's now back-to-back quality starts for the righty after two bad outings preceding those quality starts. This is the perfect time to sell high. I advocated selling him for selling him earlier this month, and still stand by that today. Bibee is not a groundball getter, nor a big punchout guy. He has a 17.4% launch angle against, well above big league average. His fastball just doesn't get results. Bibee's fastball has a whopping .483 wOBA against and .581 xSLG against. It is really tough to be consistent when your fastball is basically a non-offering. Oh, and he throws it 45.6% of the time. Sell high.
Aaron Civale
Did the Rays just take the losing side of a trade for the first time in recent memory? Civale went 5.1 innings, but surrendered four earned and walked four, while only striking out three. His ERA has ballooned to a 5.92, the highest of his career. His 3.61 xERA and 3.47 xFIP suggest he hasn't really been this terrible, but I still don't like what I see under the hood. Civale gets groundballs at a 9th percentile rate, and whiffs at a 35th percentile rate - not great. He does generate strikeouts via chase, which is actually impressive given his low walk percentage (6%). He also has a high punchout rate of 24.6%, the only way a guy can simultaneously do all four of not getting whiff, but still getting chase and strikeouts, but not walking anyone is if hitters are taking a lot, and they are. What this means is that there is some optimization already built into Civale's approach, and hitters have reacted as such, so I'm less confident in this ship turning around. That being said, Civale has gotten unlucky in the homer department, allowing three more than expected. Nonetheless, I think he is a gamble that doesn't feature corresponding upside, so it might be time to cut ties. It might not be a sell high, but it's certainly a sell/cut situation.
Yu Darvish
The man is back! Darvish spun seven scoreless, walking just one and punching out nine. He also only allowed four hard hit balls on the day. Darvish hasn't allowed a run in May, or his last four starts for that matter. What's more impressive is that Darvish shutout the Dodgers and Braves on back-to-back starts. In nine starts on the year, he's allowed more than one run only three times. He now has a 2.08 ERA on the year. xERA (3.17) and xFIP (3.80) don't think he's been quite 2.08 good. The difference between his FIP (2.92) and xFIP suggests there has been some homerun luck. He's obviously an add, as you can't deny the performance, but there is not much to suggest he can keep this up. I'd add and see if you can immediately try to sell.
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