Minnesota's Outfield
Byron Buxton, CF
As has been the case since he arrived in Minnesota in 2015, Buxton has the highest potential in the Twins' outfield. Of course, staying healthy is the key for the 30-year-old. Buxton has only played in more than 100 games once in his career, which was back in 2017. He battled a knee injury last season that limited his playing time severely and kept him out of the field the entire season (ultimately had knee surgery in October). As DH, he slashed .207/.294/.438 with 17 homers and nine stolen bases across 347 plate appearances in 2023. Buxton has displayed flashes of pop and speed throughout his career; however, his hefty 14.5% SwStr% and 29.4% K% have led to inconsistencies at the dish, and his perennial health concerns have limited his base stealing opportunities. The Twins plan on deploying him in centerfield this season. If he stays healthy, there is 30+ HR and 20+ SB potential for Buxton, and considering his current ADP is 236, it's not much of a risk to take a flier on that potential in the later rounds of your 2024 draft.
Max Kepler, LF
Entering his ninth full season in the big leagues, Kepler is another veteran in the Twins outfield. The 31-year-old has had flashes but has never been a mainstay fantasy option throughout his career. He does have a 36-homer season (2019) to his name, and he had a solid second half last season after getting healthy, so there is some room for optimism here. Kepler slashed .309/.381/.565 with a .400 wOBA, 159 wRC+, and 12 homers over his last 252 plate appearances in 2023. He posted a 51.1% HardHit% and 13.8% Barrel% during that stretch, which are in stark contrast to his career percentages of 40.2% and 7.2%, respectively. So it was more likely an anomaly, than a sign of what could be to come for Kepler. Overall, he has probably been around long enough for fantasy managers to know to keep their expectations tempered.
Matt Wallner, RF
Leading the Twins' youth movement, Wallner is entering his second full big league season at 26 years old. In his first season, the 6'5" lefty executed the mantra of the modern hitter: be patient, swing big, pull the ball in the air. He was willing to take a walk (11.0% BB%, 28.7 O-Swing%), which is a very good characteristic for a young player, and when he decided to swing, he went after it. Of course, this led to a high 15.4% SwStr% and 31.3% K%, not great; HOWEVER, his 18.8% Barrel% ranked fourth in the majors (min 250 PAs) while his 91.7 average exit velo ranked 30th. Additionally, Wallner elevated the ball, posting a 20.3% LD% and 47.4% FB%, making his GB% 32.3%, which was the 22nd lowest in the league. In all, Wallner hit 14 homers in 254 plate appearances while posting a 144 wRC+ and .377 wOBA, which ranked 12th and 15th, respectively among batters with at least 250 PAs in 2023. There will certainly be growing pains and he won't get many opportunities against lefties (hit .119 in 46 PAs vs LHP in '23). However, he will get the lion's share of the starts in left field against right-handers and his ADP is currently 342.3, so again not much of a risk drafting him there.
Manuel Margot, OF
The Twins added Margot in the offseason presumably to platoon in the outfield with Wallner (and Kepler) against lefties. He won't be on the fantasy radar in typical leagues. However, with a career triple-slash of .281/.341/.420 against southpaws, he could be in consideration for DFS, especially when playing at home as he totes a career 126 wRC+ in home games against LHP.
Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
Kirilloff will likely get most of his play at first base and DH in 2024, but he does have OF eligibility from last season which significantly adds to his value. The 26-year-old has shown glimpses of a complete hitter throughout his short career, however, he has had difficulties staying on the field. Kirilloff's injury history is particularly worrisome as it has mainly been due to a nagging wrist injury that has required two surgeries over the past few years. When he was healthy last season, he was a line-drive-hitting machine that used the whole field. His 30.9% LD% led the majors (min 300 PAs) and his 1.7% IFFB% was the fifth lowest. Kirilloff's 35.8%/35.8%/.28.4% Pull%/Cent%/Oppo% makes him difficult to defend and allows for the potential of a high average (he hit .270 in '23). He won't be a player that is drafted in most fantasy formats (349.6 ADP) but if his wrist holds up, 20 to 25 dingers with a .280 average isn't too far-fetched.
Any Bounce Back in Blue Jays?
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B
Many Blue Jays players took a step backward last season and Vlad, of course, is the highest-profile player of the bunch. This makes investing in him in hopes of a comeback season more risky. After consecutive declining seasons since his MVP-caliber campaign in 2021, Vlad isn't going as high in fantasy drafts, but with an ADP of 26.2, he is still a large investment. The 24-year-old hasn't been as selective or patient the past two seasons, which is probably the root cause of his decline. In 2021 he posted a 28.3% O-Swing% and 12.3% BB% causing people to wonder if was truly free-swinging Vlad Sr's kid (career 38.9% O-Swing%). Jr's numbers have decreased since then, posting a 33.4% O-Swing% and 9.0 BB% the past two seasons. It appears that part of the underlying issue is the manner in which Vlad is chasing pitches. In 2021, when Vlad expanded the strike zone, it was more because he was fooled so he would simply swing and miss. Over the past two seasons, his O-Contact% (64.8%) has been significantly up (55.8% in '21), which has resulted in more weak contact and easy outs. Vlad still hits the ball hard and has a high ceiling, he just needs to find that sweet spot between patience and aggression again. It would also help if he found his swing at home again: last year he posted a 99 wRC+ at home, where he owns a career 130 wRC+. On the positive side, Guerrero has slashed .375/.412/.625 in 17 PAs this spring, which is a small sample, but still positive nonetheless. Additionally, he has been dealing with a jammed finger, though he has been a durable player throughout his career, missing just nine games over the past four seasons, so don't let that concern you too much.
Alek Manoah, SP
2022 Alek Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 2.33 BB/9, and finished third in the AL Cy Young voting. 2023 Alek Manoah posted a 5.87 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, 6.08 BB/9, and was sent down to the minors after 13 starts. That's about as big of a fall from grace as is possible between two seasons for a major league pitcher. Manoah did come back from the minors last season and pitched better but was sent back down again and was ultimately shut down completely due to injury. The start of Manoah's 2023 has unfortunately been more of the same. He gave up four runs and plunked three batters across 1.2 innings in his only Spring Training appearance on February 27th. Manoah hasn't pitched since then due to shoulder soreness. Seeing "bounceback" potential for Manoah right now would be folly.
Alejandro Kirk, C
Over the first half of the 2022 campaign, Kirk was a fantasy darling. He hit .311 with 12 homers and a hefty 151 wRC+ through July that season, which for a catcher in fantasy is phenomenal. He ultimately fell off down the stretch and finished the season with a .285/.372/.415 triple-slash line and 14 homers. Not phenomenal, but more than acceptable for a catcher. His average and OBP ranked first among backstops while his 129 wRC+ ranked third. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old took a step backward last season, slashing .250/.334/.358 with eight homers and a 96 wRC+. The good: Kirk maintained a solid 10.0% BB% which helped him rank sixth in OBP among catchers last season (min 400 PAs). He also led catchers with a 93.3% Z-Contact%. The bad: his 38.3% HardHit% in 2023 was a far cry from the 45.0% he posted in 2022. Additionally, his barrel rate took a dip, going from 6.7% to 5.2%. Kirk's ceiling is tame, however, his solid contact and on-base skills make him a steady option, particularly in deeper leagues.
Daulton Varsho, OF
Varsho's first season in Toronto wasn't a rousing success but it wasn't all that dissimilar from his time in Arizona. Unfortunately, Varsho's biggest asset in fantasy has been his catcher availability, which is gone in 2024. A .220/.285/.389 triple-slash with 20 homers and 16 stolen bases at catcher is useable. As an outfielder, it's not. The offensive competition in the Jays' outfield is quite sparse (though Nathan Lukes is making waves in ST), and Varsho is a plus fielder, so Left Field is his for the foreseeable future. Still, he will have to make strides at the dish before he will be fantasy-relevant in most formats.
Joey Votto, 1B
The 40-year-old signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays on Friday. After two abysmal seasons and quasi-retirement, this news doesn't mean much for your fantasy outlook, but it's something to follow as a baseball fan. Votto is looking for a swan song for his hometown team in 2024. The on-base machine did post a fantasy-relevant season as recently as 2021 when he mashed 36 homers and drove in 99 runs. It's not totally out of the question that Votto will show up on your free agency radar at some point this season, but it will probably be best to watch his (probable) last season from afar.
Injured Birds in the Outfield
Lars Nootbaar, OF
Nootbaar is in danger of missing Opening Day after being diagnosed with two non-displaced fractures in his left ribcage. He sustained the injury last week after falling in an attempt to catch a ball up against the wall. Noot will be monitored for the next couple of weeks and his return date is unclear at this time.
Tommy Edman, OF, 2B, SS
Edman (wrist) is doubtful for Opening Day according to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak. The speedster is working his way back from a wrist surgery he had in October. He has been ramping up his rehab but is apparently still a ways from being game-ready.
The pair of injuries make Jordan Walker's progression all the more important for the Redbirds. Additionally, it opens up space in the starting lineup for Dylan Carlson and Alec Burleson. Carlson is the more experienced of the two and the better defender. However, he struggled last season, slashing .219/.318/.333 with five homers in 255 plate appearances. Burleson got his first extended playing time in 2023, slashing .244/.300/.390 with eight HR in 347 plate appearances. Neither are particularly intriguing fantasy prospects, especially with Nootbaar and Edman unlikely to surrender their starting roles upon return.
Other Injuries
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, TEX
The Rangers first baseman has been diagnosed with an oblique strain and is expected to miss three to four weeks, making him a risk to miss Opening Day. He was scratched from the lineup on Thursday with side tightness and an MRI on Friday revealed a strain. Lowe was integral to Texas' World Series run last season, but he wasn't a particularly valuable fantasy asset. He has been a durable player throughout his career but even before the injury, he is a borderline fantasy starter at first base.
Lourdes Gurriel, OF, AZ
Gurriel left Friday's game after being hit on the hand with an 88.1 MPH sinker from Kyle Hendricks. He appeared to be in plenty of pain but stated that he felt fine after the contest. It was reported that no X-rays were necessary and that Gurriel is considered day-to-day. It was a scary moment but it appears the the 30-year-old avoided serious injury and he will likely be good to go come Opening Day. Gurriel hit a career-high 24 homers last season and is slated to be the Diamondback's Opening Day starter in Left Field.
