Nationals Outfield
Eddie Rosario, WAS
Rosario signed a minor league deal with the Nationals this week and could be an option for the team in left field, along with Joey Gallo, Jesse Winker, and Stone Garrett if he is recovered from injury. Rosario had a decent season last year in Atlanta, batting .255 with 21 HR's and 74 RBI across 142 games. However his K% over the past two seasons has risen to 24.2% after posting a 16.2% K% from 2107-2022. He hasn't hit above .260 since 2019 and he has a career .305 OBP so he's unlikely to help you in those areas. His Statcast numbers are average with a career 88.1 EV and 33.7 HardHit% and he doesn't steal bases so his fantasy profile isn't great, although he can go through the occasional hot streak. The best case scenario for him is that he plays regularly against RHP's, as his career .696 OPS against lefties will likely have him on the bench against most southpaws.
Joey Gallo, WAS
Gallo signed a one-year deal with the Nationals this offseason after an inconsistent injury-plagued 2023 with the Twins. He started 2023 strong, hitting 7 HR's in his first 15 games, but tailed off after that, and finished with typical Gallo numbers; a .177/.301/.440 slash line with a 42.8% K%, 14.5% BB%, and 21 HR's across 332 PA's. We pretty much know what we're getting with Gallo at this point; he'll provide you with HR's and not much else. He's tough to roster in BA leagues, and more palatable in OBP leagues, although even there it will depend on his playing time. With Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario also in the mix, Gallo will have to perform early to earn every day at bats.
Jesse Winker, WAS
Winker signed with the Nationals on a minor league deal after going through a rough last two seasons with the Mariners and Brewers. In 2023, he hit just .199 with 1 HR across 197 PA's. His K% shot way up to 25.9% last season (career 17.9% K%), while his HardHit% has plummeted to 33.7% over the last two seasons, after he had posted a 47.3% HardHit% from 2020-21 with the Reds. He has suffered through multiple injuries the past couple of season which may have affected his performance, so it will be interesting to see if he is able to have a healthy and productive spring. If he does, Winker should have a shot to make the Nationals roster, and be an option at DH or in the outfield.
Stone Garrett, WAS
Garrett should be a lock for a regular spot in the Nationals' lineup once he's healthy, although right now he's still recovering from a leg injury that he suffered last August, and is questionable for Opening Day. Garrett has shown a lot of promise over his first two big league seasons, slashing a combined .271/.335/.477 with 13 HR's across 355 PA's at the MLB level. His 30.7% K% is too high and makes him a risk for BA regression, but he has also hit the ball very hard (91.6 EV, 47.9% HardHit%), so sustaining a high BABIP seems reasonable, even if it falls from his lifetime .366 mark. Garrett also features some power upside, as in addition to hitting the ball hard, he has limited the groundballs to a 32.4% clip. If he can stay healthy for the entire season, 25 HR's are a realistic possibility hitting in the heart of the Washington lineup.
Be sure to check out the incredible Fantasy Draft Advisory program we use to shape our analysis and win your Fantasy baseball league(s) in 2024. Click here for more: https://www.Insiderbaseball.com
Red Sox Rotation
Lucas Giolito, BOS
Giolito has suffered an elbow injury which will force him to the IL for at least the start of the season, but could very well keep him out for the entire 2024. Giolit has posted a near 5.00 ERA in each of the past two seasons, and while he has still been getting strikeouts, he has gave up a ton of flyballs last season (45.7% FB%) which led to 41 HR's allowed, and also issued walks at a rate of 3.56 BB/9. He was hoping to have a rebound with the Red Sox, but that will now have to wait, possibly until 2025.
Tanner Houck, BOS
Houck has been battling for a spot in the Red Sox rotation this spring, and with Lucas Giolito now set to open the season on the IL, Houck has a very strong chance of earning a starting spot. After an excellent 2021 with Boston, Houck was moved to the bullpen in 2022, before returning to a starter role in 2023. Things didn't go nearly as well last season as he finished with a 5.01 ERA, although his 4.07 xFIP was much more respectable. His 53.0% GB% was superb, but his strikeout and walk rate were both quite mediocre. His 12.9% SwStr% suggests that there could be some upside to his strikeout rate, and if he can bump up his K% to the 25% range (21.4% K% last season), he could be a fantasy asset. He's off to a strong start this spring, allowing just 1 hit and 1 BB with 5 K's across 5 scoreless innings through his first two appearances.
Garrett Whitlock, BOS
Like Houck, Whitlock has become a heavy favorite to land a spot in Boston's rotation with the injury to Giolito. Whitlock made 10 starts last season but recorded a 5.23 and finished the season pitching out of the Red Sox pen. His underlying numbers give a much more optimistic outlook, as his xFIP as a starter was 3.88 and he posted a strong 47:7 K:BB across 51.2 IP during that stretch. That works out to an exceptional 1.22 BB/9 in that span and his career mark isn't much shabbier at 1.81 BB/9. Through 3 spring appearances, Whitlock has 10 K's and 0 BB's across 8 IP, and he could be a sleeper at the end of this year's drafts.
Cardinals Outfield
Tommy Edman, STL
Edman is still recovering from wrist surgery this offseason, and there's a very realistic possibility that he won't be ready to go for Opening Day. Edman has been a steady producer for the Cardinals and fantasy owners over the past few seasons, stealing between 27 and 32 bases in each of the last 3 campaigns, while also chipping in 11-13 HR's per season. He has also topped 90 runs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. He's a career .265 hitter whose excellent contact rate allows him to hit for a decent average even though he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard. As long as he's atop the Cardinals lineup, he should be a solid source of steals and runs, while contributing modestly in the other categories. If he needs to start the season on the IL, Dylan Carlson may have an opportunity for more at bats in the Cardinals outfield.
Lars Nootbar, STL
Nootbar continues to undergo testing on his sore ribs, and it's unclear at this point how much time he will miss. He is coming off a strong 2023 in which he slashed .261/.367/.418 with 14 HR's and 11 SB's across 117 games. He posted a solid 19.7% K% and an excellent 14.3% BB%, which makes him especially valuable in OBP leagues. He has been extremely disciplined at the plate, swinging at only 35.3% of pitches last season, leading to an elite 20.4% O-Swing% and 5.8% SwStr%. It remains to be seen if Nootbar is at risk of starting the season on the IL
Dylan Carlson, STL
With Tommy Edman looking like may not be available to open the season, Carlson may get another chance to pick up regular at bats for the Cardinals. He is coming off a poor 2023 in which he hit .219 with 5 HR's in 76 games. His K% and BB% were both better than average, and his 89.3 EV was not bad either. But he suffered from a .256 BABIP and 7.6% HR/FB, so he should be due for some positive regression. If he gets off to a hot start, he could force the Cardinals to give him more playing time even after their other starters return.
Around the League
Christian Javier, HOU
Javier struck out 6 in 3 IP in his spring start on Thursday and now has 9 K's and 3 BB's in his 6 spring innings. His ERA shot up from 2.54 in 2022 to 4.56 last season, and his 5.16 xFIP says that this is no fluke. His strikeout rate fell from 11.74 K/9 to 8.83 K/9 and he continued to give up fly balls at a rate north of 55%. Fantasy owners are hoping for a return to his 2022 form, and the spring results thus far have been promising, albeit a small sample size.
Andy Ibanez, DET
Ibanez went 2-3 with a HR and a double against the Yankees on Thursday, and is now hitting .381 with 4 HR's in 21 AB's this spring. Ibanez made solid contact for the Tigers last year, posting an 18.0% K% together with a strong 42.6% HardHit%, yet he still managed to hit just 11 HR's across 114 games. His 40.3% FB% was fine, but there is room for improvement to his 9.5% HR/FB. The combination of hard contact and a solid strikeout rate could lead to surprise fantasy value from Ibanez.
Wes Clarke, MIL
Clarke went deep again for the Brewers on Thursday, as he now has 4 HR's across just 17 PA's this spring. The pop is nothing new for the 24-year-old C/1B who hit 26 HR's across 118 games in AA last season. He has also struck out in 8 of his 17 spring PA's and K's have been a big part of his minor league career as well. Clarke has yet to play a game at the AAA level but his performance has to be opening eyes right now.
Jose Urena, TEX
Urena allowed 1 ER in 4 IP while striking out 3 and walking 2 against the Diamondbacks on Thursday, as he tries to earn a spot on the Rangers Opening Day roster. Urena has posted an ERA over 5.00 in each of the past 5 seasons and his xFIP has been at least 4.60 in each of those instances. The one thing he does really well is get a lot of ground balls, but he has never had a K/9 above 6.72, and his BB/9 has been at least 3.75 in each of the last 4 seasons. He has an outside shot at cracking the team's starting rotation to open the season, or at least joining it at some point, but he has never really been an option in fantasy.
Griffin Canning, LAA
Canning struggled with his control in his 2nd appearance this spring, walking 4 batters in 2.2 IP while allowing 1 ER and also striking out 4. 2023 was by many metrics Canning's best season as a big leaguer so far as he posted career bests in K/9 (9.85), BB/9 (2.55), and GB% (42.7%) leading to a career best xFIP of 3.82. He has struggled with walks in the post, so his control will be something to keep an eye on to see if he can maintain the gains he made last year. Health has also been an issue for Canning as last year's 22 starts was the most he has ever made in a season.
