Edwin Diaz, RP (NYM)
Diaz is right on track towards a successful return from the torn patellar tendon in his knee that forced him to miss the entire 2023 season. The electric closer was hitting the mid-to-high 90's with his fastball in a minor-league intrasquad scrimmage on Tuesday. The expectation is Diaz will appear in his first Grapefruit League game of the season next week. All signs point to a return to full health for the elite closer, but fantasy drafters aren't really discounting him. In fact, Diaz is generally being drafted as the first closer off the boards. While he has certainly performed that way for much of his career, it's a hard sell to invest that much draft capital into a guy coming off a season-long injury. Fortunately that injury was not an upper body injury and Diaz's velocity looks good. I'd still go with Devin Williams and Josh Hader over Diaz, as the safer options at the position.
Matt Brash, RP (SEA)
Brash's prognosis is a lot better today than it was a week ago. On Feb. 28, Seattle Times reporter Ryan Divish said Brash "could miss an extensive amount of time, possibly the season" due to an elbow issue, which was diagnosed as inflammation. However, a week later the young reliever is already throwing and may not end up missing too much of the regular season. That's a very important development for the Mariners, who ended up relying heavily on Brash out of the bullpen. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, he isn't the closer and so he won't get many saves and he really pitches enough within a start to accrue too many wins, although he backdoored his way into nine wins last year. He still has value in deep mixed leagues and AL-only formats, or those with SVs + HLDs. He had 24 holds in 2023. Brash managed to increase his velocity with a full-time reliever role. That amounted to impressive strikeout numbers without impacting his walks; in fact, he walked less than 10% of batters faced. He has the makings of a future closer (high strikeout numbers, low home run totals), but he is blocked by Andres Munoz as long as he is in Seattle so the future is probably elsewhere, but for now he is a quality high-leverage reliever who appears to be moving past the elbow scare of last week.
Paul Skenes, SP (PIT)
As expected, top pitching prospect Paul Skenes is going to start the season in the minor leagues. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft has barely any experience at the professional level, but he has looked nothing short of sensational when on the mound. He was touching 102-mph in his spring-training debut last week, but the Pirates plan on keeping Skenes with the team as they approach Opening Day. It's unusual for a pitcher to make his major league debut the season after he gets drafted, but Skenes is an unusual prospect that already has the tools to succeed in the big leagues. However, Pittsburgh is unlikely to compete for the postseason this year so the franchise will probably play the long game with a key asset for the future. That makes Skenes a risky pick in redraft leagues.
Sonny Gray, SP (STL)
Gray is dealing with a mild right hamstring strain, which is good news in the long run, but it could mean he will not be available on Opening Day. Gray left Monday's start after reportedly grabbing his hamstring, and on Tuesday an MRI revealed the mild strain. It's not a new injury for Gray who has missed time in the past due to hamstring troubles. It's a good sign the veteran won't match the 32 starts he made last year. In fact, 2023 was Gray's only 30+-start season since 2019. As for the rest of the Cardinals rotation, Lance Lynn and Steven Matz are nearing their spring training debuts. Both should get a shot in the rotation to begin the season while Zack Thompson has an edge to cover Gray's spot until he returns. Matthew Liberatore could be an option to start as well.
Lucas Giolito, SP (BOS)
Giolito is in danger of missing the entire 2024 season after tests revealed a torn UCL and flexor strain. That means Tommy John surgery is potentially on the horizon, nearly two months after the veteran starter signed a two-year deal for $38.5 million with Boston. A Giolito absence would cause significant ripple effects for the Red Sox pitching staff, meaning Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck are more secure in their roles although Josh Winckowski could get the nod as well. Nick Pivetta is probably going to be the Opening Day starter, and Boston could look elsewhere, like free agents Jordan Montgomery, Mike Clevinger or Michael Lorenzen.
Braxton Garrett, SP (MIA)
What was originally described as an injury that was "not overly concerning" is now threatening Garrett's availability for Opening Day. The 26-year-old lefthander is dealing with shoulder soreness that the Marlins admit will likely cost him a spot on the Opening Day roster. Garrett has dealt with multiple injuries throughout his professional career, but he managed to throw a career-high 159.2 innings in 2023. That jump in usage may have an impact on his overall health in 2024. At least his health is a question to begin the season. Garrett's ceiling is somewhat limited, but he has demonstrated an impressive level of consistency through two MLB seasons, particularly with his ability to limit walks and home runs. Trevor Rogers is looking more and more solid to earn a starting role in Miami.
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Jarren Duran, OF (BOS)
Duran left Tuesday's game with an apparent foot injury. According to MLB.com's Ian Browne, Red Sox manager Alex Cora isn't concerned, saying Duran will play on Thursday. The speedy outfielder is 1-for-6 with a stolen base this spring and appears to be a lock to lead off for the Red Sox. Duran posted an impressive .346 OBP in 362 plate appearances last year, which along with his stolen base skills, offers strong production at the top of the lineup. He managed to limit strikeouts in 2023, especially as the season progressed. That's an important development in his game, which will likely lead to even more walks and therefore more stolen bases. He has double-digit home run power but may never evolve into anything more than a 20-homer hitter. Nonetheless, he has five-category offerings and is being overlooked in many drafts.
Evan Carter, OF (TEX)
Carter is picking up right where he left off in the postseason. A two home run day on Tuesday improved his spring numbers to 7-for-18 with two home runs and seven RBI's. His OPS is 1.178. Carter was electric as a late-season callup and postseason spark, but there are doubters. A 32% strikeout rate is concerning, and he benefited from a 35.7% HR/FB rate and .412 BABIP. However, it's not as if his breakout came out of nowhere. Carter had 12 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 401 minor league at-bats prior to his promotion. He has good power and excellent speed and the ability to hit for a solid average. If he holds onto an everyday role in the Rangers' outfield, he can deliver solid 5x5 fantasy numbers.
Gavin Williams, SP (CLE)
Williams punched out five batters in 2.2 innings on Tuesday, allowing one run on four hits and no walks. Through two spring training appearances, the young righthander has nine strikeouts and one walk in less than five innings. Williams has struck out a ton of batters at every level and is demonstrating just how unhittable he can be. He needs to continue to limit the walks. A 10.7% walk rate during his rookie campaign is concerning, but he managed to overcome it with a bit of luck, including a 78.3% LOB percentage. He can't continually get away with walking 4 batters per 9 innings, but there is reason to believe he can rein in the walks as he did it at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Regardless, his upside is tremendous, but you'll have to snag him quickly because fantasy owners are anxious to draft the breakout candidate.
Ryne Nelson, SP (ARI)
Nelson took a step back after two strong outings to begin his spring. The young hurler, who is battling with Tommy Henry for the final spot in the Diamondbacks' rotation, gave up five hits and a walk in three innings. He allowed two runs while striking out two. He has a 3.38 ERA through eight innings. Nelson's Achilles heel is home runs, and while he didn't give up a long ball on Tuesday, he did allow one in his previous start. He gives up a lot of flyballs and hard contact. That means a lot of homers, and it's not exactly clear how he plans to overcome that. The good thing for Nelson is Henry hasn't looked particularly sharp this spring so he may win the job by default. There's a good chance he isn't able to hold onto the job all season, even if he does begin in the starting rotation.
Enmanuel Valdez, 2B (BOS)
Valdez had a big day at the plate on Tuesday, racking up three hits in three at-bats to go along with three runs driven in. He entered the day hitless in nine at-bats so it was an encouraging performance for the young infielder, especially as he tries to secure a hold on the second base job, which may be open as Vaughn Grissom deals with a groin injury. Valdez is small in stature, but he has demonstrated some pop in the minor leagues. In fact, he hit six home runs in 139 major league at-bats last year. He posted a 10.7% barrel rate during his short big-league stint and has the potential to benefit from "Just Enough" home runs in the AL East. Not necessarily known for his speed but Valdez did steal five bases in the majors in 2023 and batted .266. The best path to cheap late-draft power in deep leagues is Valdez somehow backing into 400+ at-bats. Otherwise, there is major risk and downside to the flawed 25 year old.
Tylor Megill, SP (NYM)
In the words of the great Michael Corleone, "Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!"
I have ridden the Tylor Megill bandwagon several times now and was ready to get off in 2024, especially with the uncertainty regarding his role and his declining production, but an electric start to the spring is pulling me back in. The 28-year-old threw three hitless innings with six strikeouts on Tuesday, improving his spring-training line to 8 IP, ER, 4 H, 13 K, 2 BB. He fine-tuned his arsenal during the offseason, strengthening his splitter and refining his slider and reports are high on both pitches so far. The encouraging February/March results follow a quality finish to the 2024 season. Megill finished with a 2.55 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in his final six starts. A shoulder injury for Kodai Senga likely solidifies at least a start or two to begin the season, but his historic volatility may quickly push the Mets to seek other options. Don't get too overexcited about his spring training results.
Anthony Rendon, 3B (LAA)
Rendon gets his wish and doesn't have to play baseball right now! At least that's the indication from the Angels who are saying the veteran third baseman tweaked his groin on Sunday, which is why he isn't playing in games right now. The free agent embarrassment has two hits in 10 at-bats this spring and hasn't played in more than 58 games in any of the past four seasons, all with Anaheim. Once a top-five option at his position, Rendon is nearly unrosterable in most leagues. Brandon Drury, Ehire Adrianza and Hunter Dozier are possible options to play if and when Rendon misses regular season games.
Bobby Miller, SP (LAD)
Miller tossed three scoreless innings on Tuesday, holding the Angels to two hits and a walk while recording one strikeout. The young righthander has a solid spot in the Dodgers starting rotation, which in and of itself is fantasy relevant. He doesn't have elite upside, unlikely to strike out a ton of batters, but he keeps his walks down, generates a lot of ground balls and doesn't give up too much hard contact. He's solid, and with that Dodgers' lineup behind him, that could turn into plenty of wins.
Brady Singer, SP (KC)
Singer was extremely effective in his second spring start on Tuesday, holding the Cubs to one hit and no walks in three scoreless innings. He struck out three batters and now has six strikeouts in five scoreless innings this spring. Singer's altered pitch mix, which now includes a reportedly impressive sweeper, is getting rave reviews. He struggled last year with injuries, inconsistency and bad luck, which is why he is an afterthought in most fantasy drafts this season, but the early returns in spring is enough to paint a rosy picture with sleeper value on the former first-round pick.
