Kevin Gausman (TOR - SP) - Kevin Gausman made his long-awaited spring debut on Monday after dealing with some shoulder fatigue early in camp, and he was brilliant against a lineup filled primarily with Pittsburgh regulars. He allowed 3 singles and a run over 3 innings, picking up 7 K's and getting 8 whiffs on 52 pitches without walking a batter. The velocity was at his normal levels, the control was just fine after the first few batters: in short, it looks like "all systems go" here. Gausman had dropped about a round on average over the past few weeks as no news was not viewed as good news on the injury front, but as long as Tuesday's recovery day goes well, I'd bump him right back up into the top 10 SPs.
Seiya Suzuki (CUB - OF) - Suzuki homered twice more on Monday, giving him 6 for the spring and continuing the tear that he's been on since last year's All-Star break. Spring stats are spring stats, but including this spring training with last year's second half gives Suzuki exactly a half-season of games played, and in those 81 games he's hit 19 homers and stolen 7 bases to go along with a .331 AVG. He's firmly inside my top 20 OF and nudging up near the top 15....I'd easily go 1 to 1 1/2 rounds earlier than his early 9th round average ADP over the last 3 weeks to grab him.
Joe Ryan (MIN - SP) - Ryan has been a critical target of mine in multiple leagues thus far, as I feel that he resides right near the end of a pretty substantial dropoff in SP quality. There aren't too many safe bets outside of the top 26-28 SPs (not that all of the first group are safe either!), but my case for Ryan being in the "safe" group rests on his performance last season when healthy. I add that caveat because he tried to pitch through a groin injury for almost a month last season, and during the 5 starts he battled it he allowed 33 hits and 23 ER in 23 1/3 innings with 11 HR (4.24 per 9!) and 9 walks (3.47 per 9). In the other 138 1/3 innings that he pitched, he allowed 7.94 H/9, 1.37 HR/9, and 1.63 BB/9 with a 3.77 ERA. In my mind, that's who you're getting: an SP with a solid WHIP and excellent K/BB ratio that gives his team a chance to win most of the time that he's out there. He is one of the last few SPs being drafted that I have few reservations about.
Kevin Ginkel (ARI - RP) - Ginkel gets bit of a bump with Monday's news that Paul Sewald will miss the beginning of the season with a Grade 2 oblique strain. 2-4 weeks would likely be a fair estimate for Sewald's return, and Ginkel is the most qualified to take over the 9th-inning role for the D-Backs. Last year Scott McGough and Ryan Thompson both had some save chances as well, so there's no guarantee that Ginkel will get every opportunity over the first few weeks of the year, but he's clearly top of the pecking order to me. I probably prefer Yimi Garcia in the "guy getting April saves" FAAB run upcoming, but Ginkel is a decent consolation prize.
Victor Scott II (STL - OF) - Scott was sent down to the minors by the Cards over the weekend, but an OF collision on Monday between Jordan Walker and Dylan Carlson resulted in Carlson leaving the game with a shoulder injury on unknown severity. Michael Siani is on the roster as well, but if this injury is more than extremely short-term I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cards bring back Scott in short order. Scott doesn't have much power to speak of, but he can make contact and is an absolute burner on the basepaths (94 SB in 132 G at A and AA in '23, 4 in 13 G this spring). He would be an instant impact player in roto formats if he's going to play, so watch the Carlson injury news carefully this week as Scott would be a must-add if he rejoins the Cards.
Jared Jones (PIT - SP) - There's a ton of hype surrounding Pirate rookie Jared Jones, a 22-year old that can reach triple digits with his fastball. The Pirates recently announced that Jones will be their #3 SP to open the season, and this comes on the heels of a spring training in which he didn't allow a run over 16 1/3 IP. I would preach some caution here though, as he's a control-challenged arm that has never really quite reached the K totals in the minors that you'd expect with his stuff. Lots of ceiling to be sure, and I don't mind taking a flyer on him in the endgame, but the floor here is nonexistent. To be perfectly honest, I'd prefer the risk/return profile on Luis Gil.
Bryan Woo (SEA - SP) - To add to the continual negative injury news on Monday, it was announced that Bryan Woo will open the season on the IL with right elbow inflammation. It sounds ominous of course, and some degree of caution should always be involved when the terms "elbow", "pitcher", and "IL" end up in the same sentence, but the way the team explained it they seem to believe that it's similar to last year's short break that Woo had in August. The UCL was intact according to an MRI, and while it is disconcerting to see a promising young pitcher hit the IL with an elbow issue twice in his first 20 career MLB starts, I don't believe that I would discount Woo's price very much at all right now. It wasn't like anybody was expecting more than 130-140 innings from Woo anyway, so I'd happily take the discount on a solid young arm that we still project in the top-60 SP.
Edouard Julien (MIN - 2B) - Julien feels a bit underappreciated to me right now, with an ADP in the 18th round over the past few weeks as the 16th 2B drafted. This is a player projected to hit leadoff in an average lineup that posted a fantastic chase rate, a better than average swinging strike rate, and an excellent LD rate in their first 109 games in the majors. I know he didn't run all that much once he reached the majors last year, but given his athletic ability and minor league SB totals, I have to think that a 20/10 line is possible for him, and he should have a helping AVG and a well above average OBP at a relatively weak position offensively. I have no issue waiting all the way to grab Julien late if I miss out on the top 4-5 options at 2B.
Colton Cowser (BAL - OF) - Cowser is a high-upside name that I'm keeping an eye on later in drafts this spring, now that word has come out that he will be traveling north with the O's. Cowser just turned 24, so he's still on the good side of the development curve, and I'd be very surprised if the O's brought him to Baltimore to ride the bench most of the time. Right now it looks like Ryan O'Hearn is slated to play every day, and I know that he played well for them last year, but his spot feels the most vulnerable to me. I love Cowser and think the upside here is significant, but it just seems curious for the O's to bring him up now if he isn't going to play: he isn't better defensively than the Hays/Mullins/Santander group, and offensively he sort of replicates what O'Hearn already offers. By the end of April I expect Cowser to either be back in AAA or playing most of the time, and with his upside I like gambling on the upside of Cowser in formats where it'd be easy to replace him (or where the reserve list is deep enough).
Sal Frelick (MIL - OF (/3B?)) - Frelick is a young player that I feel is going overlooked a bit this spring. With Monday's news that Garrett Mitchell has a broken bone in his left hand, Frelilck is likely to lead off for Milwaukee against RHP. He doesn't have much in the way of power just yet and isn't likely to ever give you much more than the average player there, but he has very good speed and contact ability. Perhaps most importantly, there is the possibility for him to provide you with relatively rare 3B/OF eligibility later in the season, once Mitchell returns. I love positional flexibility on my teams, as once the injuries start piling up it really pays to have players that can move to multiple spots in your lineup, doubly so if they're actually young players with the possibility of improving like Frelick. He's just outside the top-60 OF for me at present, but I love him as a bench bat in standard formats, and a bit more than that in OBP-based leagues.
Luis Gil (NYY - SP) - Gil is going to break camp as the Yankees 5th starter, and while this is without question not for the faint of heart, there is tremendous upside here if he can harness his electric stuff. The swinging strike rates and K/9 that he has posted border on elite, and there have been signs this spring (in 16 IP, mind you) that he has made some progress on the walks allowed. The danger here is that he still walks over 4 per 9 AND allows homers, because he is going to allow some homers with the massive FB rates that he typically posts. The K rate is enticing enough, and the April schedule isn't horrible after the first few outings (@ARI, TOR, @CLE, TB, OAK). If you have the ability to massage him through the first (tough 2-start) week on your reserves, the risk might pay off for the back half of the month.
Alejandro Kirk (TOR - C) - Kirk has been my most frequent catching target this spring, much like last year unfortunately. What isn't like last year is how the Blue Jay offense has been hitting the ball this spring, enough to make me think that there's actual change in progress. The Blue Jays as a whole underperformed the perception of their offensive talent pretty significantly last season, and specifically Kirk, Vlad, and Bichette had similarly disappointing campaigns. All three had much higher GB rates than you'd prefer to see, particularly in Vlad's and Kirk's instances as relatively slow players. Conversely, this spring all 3 have shown improvements in that area, and their (small sample-size) performances have improved considerably. Whether it is the promotion of Don Mattingly from bench coach to "offensive coordinator" or something else, it appears from the early returns that all three have been working toward rectifying something that was becoming a problem. It's caused me to bump all 3 up my boards a bit recently, but in Kirk's case the change is huge because of the interchangeable nature of the middle tier of catchers. Kirk is such a skilled contact hitter, but the power that he showed in his first few years completely dissipated last year. If he can maintain the excellent contact ability while re-adding the power component to this game, he could easily become a top-10 catcher: he's still just 25 so this isn't just wishful thinking about further development. I'm very optimistic that he can provide top-12 C value at a minimum this season.
Dylan Cease (SD - SP) - Cease has moved up about a round and a half in ADP since being dealt to the Padres, and as much as everyone knows I'm not a fan of the guy, I have to think it's justified. He's getting a team upgrade, a park upgrade, and call me crazy, but I think most guys just pitch better when there's at least a reasonable chance that they could make the postseason....something that certainly wasn't the case with the White Sox. He's moved up to SP27 via ADP over the past 3 weeks, and we have him ranked significantly higher than that. The swinging strike rate is clearly the strength here, while the BB rate and GB rate stick out as long-term weaknesses. Any improvement in control would be a gigantic bump for him, and moving to SD should help mitigate the HR issue a bit (Petco is roughly 25% better at preventing HRs than Guaranteed Rate). I think it's pretty risky to have Cease as your #2 even if our projections warrant that placement, but if he's your #3 I think you're golden. His current ADP puts him early in round 9, and it's likely worth sneaking up a round for his upside.
Esteury Ruiz (OAK - OF) - Recent rumblings out of Oakland have Ruiz as more of a short-side platoon CF/defensive replacement than a full-time starter, which is very disappointing for a guy that had recently crept into the late 10th round of drafts. The 25 year old has shown flashes of adding some other production to his obvious speed, but he'll need reps to continue his progress.....as of now, his plate discipline and contact ability are far too poor to offer any consistent production. For me, he's droppable in all but the deepest of formats if he isn't playing every day. A 25-30 steal Ruiz just doesn't cut it for how much he'll likely hurt you everywhere else.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (CIN - 1B/3B) - We're all sick of hearing about injuries at this point, but the silver lining in the injuries to TJ Friedl and Matt McLain is that it solidifies playing time for Encarnacion-Strand, a player with substantial contact issues but excellent power. He's been able to post impressive batting averages despite the swing-and-miss because the combination of an excellent LD rate and above average exit velocity, but the risk is there that everything but power could be an issue. The power gives him some intriguing upside though, and I'm thrilled to see him get into a situation where he'll have a bit of a longer leash than I expected. He's been playing both 1B and 3B this spring too, so the additional eligibility adds a bit of value. He's moved all the way up into the 11th round with the Friedl injury news, but we think that even there he's being slighted a bit. I'm still targeting him even a few rounds earlier than that if I have a corner slot still open: he hit 33 HRs in just 130 G last year, and the lowest AVG he posted during his climb through the minors was .296. There's lots of upside here.
