Snag, Lag, or Red Flag?
A classic exercise (that was just made up) where we look at players in different ADP ranges of the draft and decide which of these three categories they fall into:
- Snag - Get the player. Don't hesitate to draft him in that range.
- Lag - Pump the breaks. See what else is available and if he falls, maybe.
- Red Flag - Forget about him.
Early Rounds:
Yordan Alvarez, OF/DH, HOU (ADP: 15.8)
I know there is a lot of talent around the league and many different fantasy formats, but if Alvarez is on the board when you're drafting anywhere in the second round... Snag. Over the past three seasons, he has posted a .403 wOBA and 163 wRC+, both of which rank second in that span. Last season, Alvarez's Barrel%, xwOBA, and xSLG all ranked in the 99th percentile, while his HardHit% and Avg Exit Velo were in the 96th. His only knocks are a lack of speed and an injury history. Yordan does literally everything else at an elite level, so you'll live without the SBs. As for the injury history, he missed the 2020 season due to knee surgery but has been very productive since despite some IL stints and missed games. Alvarez has played 393 games the past three seasons, smacking 101 homers and driving in 298 runs. Those numbers rank 8th and 11th, respectively, in that span. Injury-prone players are almost always immediate red flags for me...but this guy delivers high-end production even when he plays part-time.
Austin Riley, 3B, ATL (ADP: 17.8)
Riley is another accomplished hitter in a stacked lineup going mid-second round. He isn't quite as elite across the board as Alvarez, but he is incredibly consistent and has only missed eight games over the past three campaigns. Riley's HardHit% and Barrel% did take a dip (2%) last season, and his 18.5% LD% was a career low. Not what you want to see in the underlying numbers, but he still managed to slash .281/.345/.516 with 37 dingers and 97 RBI. Riley is just 26 years old, already proven, and in a potent lineup. He will produce across the board even if he "struggles," as displayed by the 117 runs he scored last season. He is a safer pick than Alvarez, and being drafted two picks after him... Snag.
Corbin Burnes, BAL, SP (ADP: 20.4)
Burnes has steadily declined since his Cy Young campaign in 2021. There are A LOT of metrics and stats that display his season-to-season decline since the '21 campaign, but I just focused on a few in the table below.
Metric: 2021/2022/2023
K%: 35.6%/30.5%/25.5%
BB%: 5.2%/6.4%/8.4%
O-Swing%: 37.8%/35.7%/33.2%
SwStr%: 16.6%/15.1%/12.2%
Z-Contact%: 81.1%, 83.4%, 86.1%
The strikeout stuff has clearly been waining, but Burnes was still effective on contact last season. His 5.3% Barrel% and 32.4% HardHit% were solid, while his 22 Run-Value ranked in the 96th percentile. The move from Milwaukee also may aid Burnes as he has been much better away from home throughout his career (2.88 away ERA, 3.65 home ERA). However, his decline has been too steady and profound to be the second pitcher off of the board. Also, for what it's worth, he has been tagged in Spring Training (5 HR, 9.28 ERA in 10.1 IP). At 20.4 ADP and SP2, the Red Flag is flying for me; you don't want to crash and Burnes with Corbin here.
Corey Seager, SS, TEX (ADP: 24.2)
The epitome of an injury-prone type of player I like to avoid early in drafts. He is still recovering from offseason surgery and just starting to take BP. Normally, I would red-flag this and move on but it's hard in Seager's case because he had such a fantastic season in 2023 (and post-season, remember?) and he turns 30 next month. He played just 119 games but he hit 33 homers and blistered the ball (53.2% HardHit%, 15.2% Barrel%) on his way to a .327/.390/.623 triple-slash line. With the depth of the SS position these days, you could draft a suitable backup deep in the draft and take your chances. Ultimately, I'll call it a lag. If you are comfortable with your draft when he's on your radar, and you have eyes for another SS for later on, you might feel tantalized to pull the trigger on the two-time World Series MVP...and I don't blame you.
Spencer Strider, SP, ATL (ADP 8.4)
This one depends on the type of league you are drafting in and your strategy. Typically, I think finding "sure-thing" hitters is easier than finding "sure-thing" pitchers. And now, with injuries and ineptitude mounting up in the starting pitching ranks, I think that's even more true. Strider is so far ahead of his pupils, that picking him this early makes sense. Strider did get barreled up last season (8.0% Brl%, 43rd percentile), but his 35.4% HardHit% wasn't bad (71st percentile), and his strikeout acumen puts him well ahead of anyone else for fantasy purposes. He struck out 44 more batters than anybody else last season. There will likely be pitchers with lower ERAs, but Strider's won't hurt you. He gives innings and is a good bet to lead the league in wins if that matters to you. There will obviously be plenty of offensive fire-power available in Strider's draft range, but he is the snag of SPs this season.
Middle Rounds/Late Rounds:
Andres Gimenez, CLE, 2B (ADP: 116.6)
In 2022, Gimenez slashed .297/.371/.466 while displaying speed (20 SB) and some pop (17 HR). Last season, he stole 30 bags and hit 15 homers; however, his bat skills diminished and his triple-slash line severely decreased (.251/.314/.399). Gimenez is aggressive (42.7% O-Swing%) and though he does hit some home runs, he doesn't hit the ball hard AT ALL. In 2023, his 84.6 avg exit velo was in the 1st percentile while his 27.0% HardHit% was in the 4th percentile. A guy like Gimenez can have a lot of fantasy value if he hits at the top of the order and chips in across the board. Unfortunately, Gimenez went for a more power approach last season, which backfired, and his value became solely about stolen bases. I'd lag back on Gimenez, his hitting profile leaves a lot to be desired right now.
Riley Greene, OF, DET (ADP: 149.2)
The 23-year-old took a big step forward last season. He slashed .288/.349/.447 with a .244 wOBA and 11 homers in 416 plate appearances. Greene still struck out a lot (27.4% K%) and had a tough time elevating the ball (48.9% GB%). But what he did do was hit the ball hard and have hefty expected numbers. Greene's 91.6 avg exit velo and 47.3% HardHit% were good, while his 11.3% Barrel% was above average. It's the .365 xOBA and .499 xSLG, which ranked in the 88th and 89th percentile, respectively, that piques interest. Still, he has a lot to improve upon, but his numbers suggest he will take another step forward, making Greene a snag for me in the 150 ADP range.
Bailey Ober, SP, MIN (ADP: 149.8)
Ober owned a 3.43/4.20 ERA/xFIP with a 9.10 K/9 and 1.81 BB/9 across 144.1 innings last season. He limits the free passes but is a flyball pitcher (49.6% FB%) so he gives up a lot of home runs. The 144.1 innings were the most he has pitched in the majors but he has pitched effectively in his three-year stint. At 6-9, Ober is a big buy but he doesn't overwhelm with his velocity. Still, he has a plus 33.5% Chase% and his 25.3% K% is above average. With a good defense behind him, Ober should be a solid fantasy starter this season. You will have to take your lumps with some blow-up games due to the homers, but he's a solid snag in the 150 ADP (SP 41).
JD Martinez, DH, NYM (ADP: 227.0)
Martinez signed with the Mets and is back for his 14th big league season. He is aging (36) but has been decent the past couple of seasons. However, his SwStr%, O-Swing%, and K% spiked to career highs in 2023. Martinez did still bang 33 homers and collect 103 RBI, but that was in LA, the Mets' situation is different. At this stage of his career, he should be strictly a DH which dampens his value. There are more versatile and useful options in this range. Plus, as he makes less contact and continues to age, the potential for him to fall off a cliff is real...Lag.
Injury Update:
Max Kepler, OF, MIN
The MRI on Kepler's left pectoral didn't show any major issues. He was originally scratched from his start on Wednesday with pectoral tightness. Manager Rocco Baldelli said that Kepler was in a "pretty good spot" so it doesn't seem too concerning. However, Opening Day is fast approaching so any further issues could cost the 31-year-old real playing time.
Sonny Gray, SP, STL
Manager Oliver Marmol said that Gray (hamstring) could be ready for his season debut over the Cardinals' seven-game road trip to start the season. This is welcomed news. Gray being unable to pitch in the opener certainly caused concern for the new Red Bird, but a start within the first seven games would virtually mean no lost time. He is scheduled to pitch two innings in a minor league game on Friday so we should have a better idea about his status going forward then.
David Bednar, RP, PIT
The 29-year-old made his spring debut on Thursday. He allowed two hits and fanned one across a scoreless inning. Bednar started feeling tightness in his right lat in early March which backed up his spring. However, he has made progress over the last two weeks and with some live action under his belt, all things look good for him to be in the pen on Opening Day.
Wrapping up game two in Seoul:
After a rather bizarre game one, the South Korean fans were treated to a slugfest on Thursday. The Padres chased Yoshinobu Yamamoto after just one inning. He gave up five earned on four hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch...though he did strike out two in the frame. Padres' starter Joe Musgrave didn't fair much better. He surrendered five earned on seven hits and two walks across 2.2 innings. He also fanned a pair. Jake Cronenworth went 4 for 4 with a triple and four RBI; finding holes in the Dodger defense was probably more enjoyable than finding a hole in his mitt. Despite plating 15 runs, there was only one Padres round-tripper on the day, and it belonged to Manny Machado; who finished 1 for 4 with three RBI and a pair of walks. The Dodgers offense was also steaming, as they scored 11 on 16 hits. Mookie Betts led the charge, going 4 for 5 with a homer, a double, and six RBI. Will Smith also recorded a four-hit day and he drove in a pair.
