Keibert Ruiz (C-WSH) is enjoying a solid spring training as he's hitting .280 with 4 RBI, 3 runs scored, a 7% walk rate, and 10% strikeout rate in 30 PA. He quietly took a step forward in 2023 and may take another in 2024. The 25 year-old was a quietly productive catcher in his sophomore campaign, as he posted a .260 average to go with 18 dingers, 67 RBI, and 55 runs scored across 562 PA. His wRC+ of 93 was below the league average, but the bottom line is that he improved from his rookie campaign (.251 average, 7 homers, 36 RBI, and 33 runs scored in 433 PA). Underneath the hood, the changes were admittedly modest across the board as Ruiz trimmed his strikeout rate from 11.5% to 10%, raised his contact rate from 86% to 87%, boosted his hard-hit rate from 27.5% to 30.5%, and elevated his barrel rate from less than 4% to 6%. Touted for his plus hit tool as a prospect, Ruiz has only begun to demonstrate that at the big-league level, although his power output may not increase much based on his below-average raw power grade. The gains in 2024 therefore might be modest, but Ruiz should be a solid C who hits for .270+ with 16-20 homers.
Danny Jansen (C-TOR) will miss at least two weeks after a HBP caused a small fracture in his right wrist on Wednesday. The club is optimistic that his absence will be minimal under the circumstances, but this development likely ensure that Alejandro Kirk sees additional playing time in the early going of the upcoming campaign. The 28 year-old backstop was batting .217 with a homer, 3 RBI, and 3 runs scored across 26 PA in spring training, with identical 8% strikeout and walk rates in that tiny sample size. Jansen is coming off a solidly productive (if abbreviated season) in which he split time with Kirk to hit .228 with a career-high 17 dingers, 53 RBI, and 38 runs scored over 301 PA. Jansen's Statcast profile took a step backward last season, as he had a 37% hard-hit rate (down from 47% in 2022), 11% barrel rate (13% in 2022), and average exit velocity of 88.5 mph (90.5% in 2022). Regardless, he was poised to be a solid source of power at the C position in 2024. Injuries have been a persistent theme of his career since he reached the majors in 2018 and he's topped out at 384 PA (back in 2019), so Jansen is only playable in fantasy as part of a backstop platoon or as a "streamer" when he gets hot (and he does).
Triston Casas (1B-BOS) finally showed signs of coming out of his spring-training funk against the Yankees on Wednesday as he went 1-3 with a walk and a solo homer off of Carlos Rodon; he's now batting .160 with a dinger, 4 runs scored, a 19.5% walk rate, and a 29% walk rate through 31 PA so far this spring. He could blossom into a fantasy star in 2024 after he overcame a very slow start in 2023 to put together a solid rookie campaign. Across 502 PA, the then-23 year-old recorded a .263 average to go with 24 homers, 65 RBI, and 66 runs scored, with a healthy wRC+ of 129. The strikeout rate wasn't great at 25%, but Casas showed his trademark discipline at the dish as he drew walks at a 14% clip. According to Statcast, he posted a robust 46% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 91 mph. His swinging-strike rate was roughly average at 11%, although his contact rate was below average at 75%. The good news is that Casas played his best baseball down the stretch, as he batted .317 with 15 dingers, 38 RBI, and 32 runs scored over 180 PA after the All-Star break; his strikeout rate dipped to under 24% in the second half after sitting north of 26% before the break while his hard-hit rate jumped from 4% during the second half as well. Although he'll have added value in leagues that count OBP or OPS, Casas's profile as a .260-30 type makes him a top-10 1B for fantasy.
Jorge Polanco (2B-SEA) has been red-hot in spring training as he's hitting .400 with 2 homers, 8 RBI, 5 runs scored, and a 16% walk rate in 25 PA, albeit with a 28% strikeout rate in that small sample. He played only 80 games because of injuries in 2023, but was productive when on the field as he finished the season with a wRC+ of 119. Across 343 PA, he batted .255 with 14 homers, 48 RBI, and 38 runs scored while chipping in 4 steals across 343 PA. While his strikeout rate rose for the third straight season to a career-high 26%, Polanco's contact rate remained at the same 77% that it was in 2023 while recording career-best figures in hard-hit rate (41%) and barrel rate (14%) per Statcast. Polanco has definitely geared his swing toward power output as his average launch angle came in at 22 for the second straight season as he generated a 24.5% line-drive rate and 47% flyball rate. A flyball-oriented game lends itself to a suppressed batting average, but Polanco's healthy hard-hit rate put him on pace for more than 25 homers over the course of a full season of action. Now 30 and playing for Seattle, Polanco's fantasy value will hinge on whether he can stay off the IL as he did in 2019-2021.
Ezequiel Tovar (SS-COL) didn't exactly light the world on fire as a 21 year-old rookie last season as he finished the campaign with a .253 average, 15 homers, 73 RBI, 79 runs scored, and 11 steals (in 16 attempts) across 615 PA. Indeed, his 70 wRC+ indicates that his production was well below average. His 4% walk rate, 27% strikeout rate, 17% swinging-strike rate, 71% contact rate, 45% chase rate, and 32% hard-hit rate on the season were all pretty poor. Tovar's performance, moreover, worsened as the season progressed, as he posted a .245 average with 6 dingers, 29 RBI, 37 runs scored in 277 PA after the All-Star break, with a wRC+ of just 62. His strikeout rate climbed (28%) while his hard-hit rate slipped to 31% and his line-drive rate tumbled to 21%. Tovar is only 22 as his sophomore campaign begins and there is therefore plenty of time for him to blossom into a fantasy contributor but he's not there yet. The good news is that he's been solid in spring training, batting .276 with 2 dingers, 8 RBI, 7 runs scored, and a 19.5% strikeout rate in 31 PA, although his walk rate sits at a paltry 3% in that sample.
Maikel Garcia (3B-KC) was surprisingly productive as a 23 year-old in 2024 as he hit .272 with 4 homers, 50 RBI, 59 runs scored, and 23 stolen bases (in 30 tries) across 515 PA. His wRC+ was below average at 84, but Garcia did not appear overmatched at the dish in his first extended run in the majors as he fanned at a 22% clip and walked at a 7.5% rate. His swinging-strike rate was good at 8% while he made lots of contact (82%). And much of that contact was of high quality as Statcast shows a 51% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 92 mph. The problem was his launch angle (6), which resulted in lots of grounders (48%) and liners (25%), leaving only 27% flyballs. Even if he adds only a touch more lift to his swing, his ability to generate loud contact should help him hit for significantly more power. As it stands, he's currently a plus hit tool guy with solid speed who should hit for at least a decent average and swipe 20+ bags. Garcia is one to watch in 2024 in case he unlocks some more pop, and the early returns in spring training are encouraging as he's batting .333 with 2 homers, 6 RBI, 5 runs scored, a steal, an 18.5% walk rate, and 22% strikeout rate through 27 PA.
Riley Greene (OF-DET) has put together a solid spring as he's batting .360 with 3 RBI, 2 runs scored, a 17% walk rate, and 20% strikeout rate through 30 PA. He had his sophomore campaign abbreviated by an injury but he nevertheless showed some growth in his age-22 season. Across 416 PA, the 2019 first-round draft pick recorded a .288 average to go with 11 homers, 37 RBI, 51 runs scored, and 7 steals (in 7 attempts), with an above-average wRC+ of 119. He trimmed his strikeout rate to 27.5% while - per Statcast - registering more hard contact (46.5%), recording more barrels (11.5%), and raising his average exit velocity to 91.5 mph. On the other hand, his walk rate remained at 8.5% while his contact rate dipped to 74%, especially with his z-contact% tumbling to 82%, and his swinging-strike rate climbed to 12%. With the advanced metrics are something of a mixed bag, fantasy owners can take things in whichever direction they prefer. But the bottom line was that his power output increased, he was more aggressive (with success) on the basepaths, and his strikeout rate declined slightly. If he can stay on the field in 2024, he's a candidate to hit .270 with 18+ dingers and 10ish steals; not a superstar, but a contributor.
Chas McCormick (OF-HOU) really stepped things up in 2023 - his third big-league season - as he batted .273 with 22 dingers, 70 RBI, 59 runs scored, and 19 steals (in 25 tries) across a career-high 457 PA; a career-best 133 wRC+ attested to his productivity. Poised to be an everyday player in 2024, there's real reason to not forget McCormick on draft day. He posted a career-low 25.5% strikeout rate, a career-best 73% contact rate, and a career-low 13% swinging-strike rate while Statcast shows a decent 39% hard-hit rate and career-high 11% barrel rate. Sure, none of those figures are amazing, but McCormick showed that he has the ability to be a 20-20 player who hits for at least a solid average (for what it's worth, he's a career .259 hitter through 1184 PA). He's a solid option for a 3rd-4th OF for fantasy in 2024. For what it's worth, McCormick has been hot at the plate during spring training, batting .429 with 4 RBI, 2 runs scored, a steal, and a 10% strikeout rate in 30 PA, although with a 3.5% walk rate in that tiny sample.
Brandon Nimmo (OF-NYM) has had a slow spring training as he's hitting just .238 with no homers, no RBI, and 2 runs scored in 22 PA while fanning 23% of the time and walking just 4.5% of the time. He's coming off a career year in 2023 as he hit .274 with 24 dingers, 68 RBI, and 89 runs scored across 682 PA, with a nice wRC+ of 130. After struggling to stay healthy early in his career - he didn't play in more than 140 games in a season until 2022 after reaching the majors in 2016 - Nimmo has now logged two straight seasons of 670+ PA. His contact rate was solid at 81% while he maintained his trademark patience (24% chase rate and 42% swing rate) while not swinging and missing often (8% swinging-strike rate). Nimmo also posted his strongest Statcast figures as he logged a 48% hard-hit rate, 9.5% barrel rate, and 92 mph average exit velocity. After his average launch angle sat under 9 each year 2020-2022, he raised that to just over 12 last season, which helped his power output tremendously. Another .270-20 season is highly likely if he remains on the field, and Nimmo gets a boost in OBP and OPS leagues as he has a knack for drawing free passes (11% walk rate in 2023, 13% career). Especially with the Mets reportedly considering moving him down the order into the heart of the lineup, he could offer more of a balance of RBI and runs scored in 2024.
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF-BOS) appears increasingly likely to make the big-league roster out of camp and see fairly regular playing time, and that's an exciting prospect; the club will reportedly have him play 2B and SS next week to help his chances of making the big-league roster out of spring training. Rafaela has enjoyed a nice spring in which he's hit .250 with 3 dingers, 7 RBI, 5 runs scored, and 2 stolen bases across 40 PA while fanning at a 25% clip and drawing walks at a 10% rate. The 23 year-old flashed his intriguing combination of power and speed last season as he ripped 22 homers and swiped 39 bags in 574 PA spanning the Double-A, Triple-A and major league levels. His walk rate (4.5-5.5%) was nothing to write home about at each level while he fanned at a reasonable 21-22% clip at each minor-league stop before striking out at a whopping 31.5% rate in 89 MLB PA. That does hint at the concerns about his hit tool, which rates as below average, so there is some batting average risk here; he did hit just .241 in his first taste of big-league action. Rafaela's Statcast metrics in the bigs were also nothing amazing, as his hard-hit rate (34%), barrel rate (5.5%), and average exit velocity (85.5 mph) were all underwhelming in that small sample size. But he's worth watching as the 2024 season begins given his ability to contribute in multiple categories and the club's clear interest in getting him into the lineup.
Ryan Pepiot (SP-TB) is getting some hype after landing with the Rays during the offseason as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade, as he's poised to break camp as part of the club's starting rotation. The 26 year-old was solid in limited action with the Dodgers last season, compiling a 2.14 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 3.99 xFIP across 42 IP (3 starts, 5 relief appearances). An oblique injury cost him a lot of time, but Pepiot especially impressed with his control after that was largely a weakness throughout his minor-league career; for what it's worth, his BB/9 was 2 in 22.2 IP (6 starts) in Triple-A last season. He certainly won't repeat a 99% strand rate and his 8.1 K/9 was underwhelming, but Pepiot kept the contact rate to a reasonable 76% while recording an encouraging 12% swinging-strike rate. He also surrendered only a 27% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity just south of 87 mph last season. Part of the optimism surrounding Pepiot this season, of course, stems from his move to Tampa, as the Rays are noted for their proficiency in turning pitchers into fantasy gold. It's tough to not get too excited about the possibilities here, but one would be wise to not overpay for an unproven commodity. The results for Pepiot so far in spring training have been mixed in just 2 starts, as he owns an 11.57 ERA, 11.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 5.90 xFIP in a tiny sample of 4.2 IP.
Chris Sale (SP-ATL) enjoyed something of a renaissance in 2023 after throwing only 48.1 total IP in 2021 and 2022. Across 102.2 IP, the 34 year-old lefty recorded a 4.30 ERA to go with a K/9 of 11, a BB/9 of 2.5, and an xFIP of 3.72. Indeed, a 70% strand rate (77% career) and 13% HR/FB inflated his ERA a bit. But Sale posted a swinging-strike rate north of 13% while limiting the opposition to a 72.% contact rate and a 34.5% hard-hit rate (per Statcast). His average fastball velocity came in at 94 mph, which is only a half tick below his career average and to be expected for a pitcher in their mid-30s. Fantasy owners can probably expect similar results from Sale in 2024 as he joins the Braves, although he certainly comes with the "injury risk" tag on draft day. The early returns in spring training have been solid, as he's compiled a 3.86 ERA, 13.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 3.72 xFIP in 11.2 IP (4 starts).
Shane Bieber (SP-CLE) has reportedly regained his lost velocity after working with Driveline during the offseason as his fastball has averaged over 93 mph during spring training after sitting at about 91.5 in both 2022 and 2023. Bieber has made only 2 starts so far in spring training, recording a 3.18 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 6.4 BB/9, and 4.94 xFIP in just 5.2 IP. Whether the improved velocity will actually improve his fantasy value remains to be seen, but it's an encouraging development as Bieber comes off his worst professional season. Thanks to inflammation in his right (throwing) elbow, Bieber logged just 128 IP last season in which he recorded a 3.80 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.96 xFIP. The strikeout rate was easily a career low while his swinging-strike rate was (unsurprisingly) also a career low at 10.5% and opposing hitters posted a career-high 77% contact rate against him. Meanwhile, key Statcast metrics - namely a 48% hard-hit rate and average exit velocity of 91.5 were career worsts. At 28 years old when the season begins, Bieber can certainly recapture some measure of his 2018-2021 form, although it's worth noting that he's surpassed 130 IP in a season only twice since reaching the majors back in 2018. So, injuries and performance are issues with which fantasy owners have to grapple on draft day as they consider taking Bieber.
James Paxton (SP-LAD) will reportedly not travel with the Dodgers to Korea for the club's two-game set with the Padres this coming week, but it's not health related. To date, though, he's made only one appearance in spring training, allowing 1 run with 4 punchouts and no walks across just 2 IP. He enjoyed a bit of a comeback with Boston in 2023 as he recorded a 4.50 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.98 xFIP across 19 starts (96 IP). The southpaw had entered his age-34 season after throwing only 21.2 IP combined in 2020 and 2021 with the Yankees and Mariners before not pitching at all in 2022. An uncharacteristically high 18% HR/FB inflated his ERA a bit, but otherwise Paxton showed that he could still be a fantasy contributor as his average heater velocity climbed back above 95 mph, his swinging-strike rate approached 13%, and he allowed contact at a below-average 74.5% clip. A 34% hard-hit rate, moreover, was closer to his career average in that department (34%). Now with the Dodgers, Paxton could very well put together a similar season in 2024, but expect the club to manage his innings so as to keep him healthy. An ERA in the 4-4.5 range, a K/9 of 9.5 or so, and a BB/9 in the low-3s should be expected. Paxton should be rostered and started in most spots when healthy.
Alex Lange (RP - DET) has had an uneven spring training, as he has a 9.00 ERA, 15.8 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 2.89 xFIP over just 4 IP; homers have been a problem in that small sample. He will reportedly serve as the Tigers' closer to open the 2024 season, but fantasy owners would do well to keep in mind that he could - again - lose his job. In 2023, Lange was removed from the closer role partway through the campaign because of wildness. Although his 3.68 ERA wasn't terrible and his 10.8 K/9 was a career best, Lange's BB/9 finished at an ugly 6.1 while his xFIP came in at 4.38; a lucky .243 BABIP helped to limit the damage that could come with a high walk rate as well as a tendency to serve up big flies (12.5% HR/FB). Lange's 15.5% swinging-strike rate was stellar and he limited the opposing to a meager 62% contact rate as well as kept the hard contact at just 36% (per Statcast) but it's difficult to fathom him finishing the season as Detroit's closer if the walks remain a problem. The walk rate wasn't exactly pretty in his breakout 2022 season (4.4 BB/9), so it's likely that he continues to make things a little too interesting in the 9th. Draft him at your peril.
