Brewers Bullpen
Devin Williams, MIL
Williams has been diagnosed with two stress fractures in his back and is expected to miss the first half of the season. This is devastating for the Brewers and for fantasy owners, many of whom drafted Williams as the first closer off the board this spring. Williams was arguably the best closer in baseball last season recording a 1.53 ERA (2.79xFIP), 13.35 K/9, and 29.6% HardHit% while notching 36 saves, but he was struggling this spring allowing 4 ER's and walking 4 batters in 1.1 IP. Now he'll clog up an IL spot for those who wish to hold on to him, although he'll presumably regain the closer role once he's healthy, which the Brewers hope will be sometime in June.
Joel Payamps, MIL
With Williams set to miss the first 3 months of the season, Payamps seems like a favorite to receive save chances for the Brewers. Payamps converted 27 holds as a setup man for Milwaukee in 2023, and finished with a 2.55 ERA and 3.65 xFIP across 70.2 IP. His peripherals were solid with a 9.81 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, and 45.9% GB%. He's not close to the same tier as Williams, but he needs to be drafted now as the presumptive next in line for the Brewers. It's worth noting though that Payamps has been roughed up for 5 ER's on 8 hits, including 2 HR's, in 2.2 IP in his 3 spring appearances, and continued struggles could lead the Brewers to consider turning in another direction.
Hoby Milner, MIL
The left-handed Milner is another Brewers reliever to keep on the radar, having recorded 17 holds in 2023, along with a 1.82 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 64.1 IP. His 8.25 K/9 was mediocre, but he posted an elite 1.82 BB/9 and 50.9% GB% en route to a 3.66 xFIP. Milner was dominant against lefties last season, allowing a .450 OPS against them, in large part due to a 59.3% GB%. He wasn't shabby against right-handed hitters either, posting a 32:5 K:BB in 32.2 IP against righties. Milwaukee would likely like to keep Milner in the left-handed setup man role, and would probably only consider him for the closer role if they really had no other good options.
Blue Jays Rotation
Kevin Gausman, TOR
Gausman is the clear ace of the Blue Jays staff, however his availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy due to a shoulder injury that has kept him out of spring action. Gausman is a top-5 SP when healthy, coming off a season in which he posted an elite 11.53 K/9 and 3.22 xFIP. That makes four straight seasons in which he has finished with a K/9 above 10.50 and an xFIP below 3.30. Considering that he has yet to pitch in any spring games, the safe bet would be that he won't be ready to start the season, which means Jose Berrios may get the Opening Day assignment. But as long as Gausman avoids setbacks, he shouldn't miss too much and shouldn't slip too far down draft boards.
Alek Manoah, TOR
Manoah is recovering from a shoulder injury and is playing catch, but it looks like he won't be ready to start the season in the Blue Jays rotation. Manoah is coming off a disaster of a season in which he produced a 5.87 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, and 6.08 BB/9, leading to two minor league demotions. The Blue Jays are going to give him another chance based on his strong results from the previous two seasons, but the advanced stats suggest that even then he was a bit lucky (4.05 xFIP from 2021-22). There's no reason to invest in Manoah in fantasy drafts this season, especially since he's out indefinitely.
Bowden Francis, TOR
With Gausman and Manoah battling injuries, a spot seems to have opened up for Francis to be a part of the Blue Jays rotation. Francis allowed just 1 unearned run in 6 innings against the Twins on Thursday, and continues to have a strong spring, now owning a 1.93 ERA across 14 IP. He pitched exclusively out of the pen for Toronto last season, but was mostly a starter throughout the minors. In 9 appearances (7 starts) at AAA last season, he recorded a 2.67 ERA and struck out 42 in 27 IP. Now it looks like he'll have a chance to prove that he can be an effective starter at the big league level.
Orioles DH/OF
Kyle Stowers, BAL
Stowers homered again against the Pirates on Thursday, giving him 4 HR's in 13 games this spring. He had a rough stint with the Orioles last season, going just 2-30 with 2 singles and 12 K's across 14 games. He had a 22.2% HardHit% and hit just 1 line drive during that time, and ended up spending most of the season in the minors. He hit for power at AAA, smashing 17 HR's in 68 games, and he has continued displaying that power this spring. If he keeps it up, he could make a case for more at bats once the season starts.
Colton Cowser, BAL
Cowser is off to a sizzling start this spring, hitting .478 with 4 HR's through his first 10 games. Cowser was sensational at AAA last season hitting .300 with 17 HR's, 62 RBI, and a .937 OPS across 87 games. His MLB stint did not go nearly as well, as he went just 7-61 (.115) with his only XBH's being two doubles. His batted ball data doesn't match the awful results, as he posted a strong 42.5% HardHit% and 25.0% LD%, yet somehow managed just a .175 BABIP. He also maintained an excellent 16.9% BB%, which allowed him to score 15 runs despite only recording 7 hits and 9 total bases. Cowser looks to be a favorite to make the Orioles' Opening Day roster, and with some better luck, the former first round pick is primed to have much better results in his second stint with the O's.
Ryan O'Hearn, BAL
O'Hearn seemingly came out of nowhere to have a productive season for the Orioles last year, hitting .289 with 14 HR's, 60 RBI, and an .802 OPS across 112 games. This was easily his best season since his rookie campaign in 2018 when he hit 12 HR's in 44 games and posted an OPS of .950. The success was no fluke either as he recorded a 51.5% HardHit% last season, and cut his K% to a career best 22.3%. The Orioles will find ways to get O'Hearn's bat into the lineup as long as he's hitting, whether it be at 1B, DH, or in the outfield, although he's still likely to have something less than a full time role.
Around the League
Kerry Carpenter, DET
Carpenter went 2-3 with a double and his first HR of the spring against the Yankees on Thursday. He got off to a late start this spring due to a hamstring injury, but it looks like he's good to go now. Carpenter established himself on the fantasy scene in 2023 when he hit .278 with 20 HR's across 459 PA's. He was sort of streaky, as much of that damage came during a 17 game stretch in August in which he blasted 9 dingers. After that, he finished the season going 34 games without a homerun. Overall, he should have a good shot at reaching 20 HR's again in 2024 as he hits the ball hard (43.1% HardHit%), but he'll probably have to put more balls in the air (35.5% FB%) if he wants to significantly increase that total. He is also a risk for BA regression as he benefited from a .338 BABIP last season.
Gavin Williams, CLE
Williams (elbow) is set to begin the season on the IL, and it's unclear how much time he will have to miss. He was having a fantastic spring, striking out 9 and walking 1 in 4.2 IP, but he has been forced to miss time because of the sore elbow. Williams posted an excellent 3.29 ERA as a rookie last season, although that number is a bit misleading, as his xFIP was 4.53 and his BB/9 was 4.06. He has been a strikeout machine in the minors, so there's reason to believe he can improve in that area once he is able to get back onto the mound.
Logan Allen, CLE
Allen allowed 1 ER in 3.1 IP against the Rockies on Thursday, striking out 2 and walking 3 in the short outing. He has had mixed results so far this spring, as he has allowed just 2 ER's in 8.1 IP across his 3 appearances, but he also has a less than ideal 6:6 K:BB. His rookie season with the Guardians was also a mixed bag, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA, but had an elevated 3.45 BB/9 and a mediocre 4.28 xFIP. Allen consistently posted K/9's north of 11.00 in the minors, but that number crashed down to 8.55 with Cleveland last season. There's more strikeout upside, but Allen is far from a sure thing right now.
Gabriel Moreno, ARI
Moreno was scratched from the Diamondbacks lineup due on Thursday due to lower back tightness. Moreno has a solid season in 2023, hitting .284 with a .747 OPS and 19.7% K%, although it would have been nice to see more than just 7 HR's in 111 games. He hit the ball hard (41.8% HardHit%), but kept hitting it on the ground (22.0% FB%). If he can put the ball in the air a little more often, then combined with his solid contact rate, he could be one of the better catching options in baseball.
Tommy Edman, STL
Edman will open the season on the IL due to his wrist injury. Edman has consistently been a source of contact hitting and speed for the Cardinals, but it seems that he is still not fully healed from the wrist surgery he had this offseason. With Edman set to miss the beginning of the season, Dylan Carlson could get a chance for more at bats.
Gerritt Cole, NYY
Cole is not expected to require Tommy John Surgery and will hopefully be able to return to the Yankees at some point this season. Cole is the reigning Cy Young winner and has been going as a top-2 pitcher in fantasy drafts, but his value has obviously taken a huge hit because of the injury. At least it seems that barring any setbacks, Cole will be able to start contributing sometime around June.
Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL
Acuna (knee) returned to the lineup on Thursday and served as the DH. Acuna was the consensus #1 overall pick in fantasy drafts this season, and it looks like he'll be ready to go once the season starts. His combination of power, speed, and average make him a fantasy superstar as long as he can stay on the field.
