Rotation in St. Louis
This offseason, the Cardinals added three veteran arms, almost completely overhauling their rotation, which was dreadful last season. The St. Louis starters had the 2nd worst K/9 (6.92) and 5th worst ERA (5.08) in 2023.
The New:
Sonny Gray
Gray is the most accomplished and in-form pitcher that the Cardinals have on the roster. He tweaked his hamstring last week and his status for Opening Day is in doubt. Encouragingly, he threw a bullpen session yesterday and said it felt "normal." Gray is coming off a career year in which he posted the third-lowest ERA (2.79) across the majors and finished second in the AL Cy Young voting. He didn't display an overwhelming K-rate (8.95 K/9), but he posted a career-low 2.69 BB/9 and led all starters with a .39 HR/9. Gray used his sweeper on a career-high 20.4% of his pitches and it was very effective. He recorded a 41.3% Whiff%, and hitters recorded a .097 average on the pitch. At 34, Gray is getting up there in years, but it's hard to ignore how well he pitched the past two seasons in Minnesota. He is probably the only starting pitcher that can be trusted in the Cardinals' current rotation.
Kyle Gibson
Gibson pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground. In 2023, his 6.8% BB% ranked in the 75th percentile, while his 49.7% GB% ranked in the 81st. He eats up innings (192.0 IP, 12th) but doesn't provide much for strikeouts (7.21 K/9 career). Additionally, Gibson's 44.5% HardHit% ranked in the 12th percentile last season, which isn't ideal, especially considering his lack of Ks. He is an ideal bottom-of-the-rotation starter in the majors, but he doesn't do enough to be viable in most fantasy formats.
Lance Lynn
The 36-year-old is the last of the aging right-handers that the Cards brought in this offseason. Lynn spent the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis and makes his return on the heels of the worst season of his career. He owned a 5.73/4.50 ERA/xFIP across 183.2 innings between Chicago and LA in 2023. With a 32.4% O-Swing% and 12.9% SwStr%, Lynn was able to get pitches by batters last season. However, when hitters made contact, it wasn't good. His 2.16 HR/9 was the highest among qualified starters and 10.4% Barrel% was the third worst. Lynn did have a string of solid campaigns leading up to 2023, but considering his age, it's hard to have optimism about his 2024 outlook.
See all of our Undervalued players in our Fantistics Fantasy Baseball Draft Advisor. Click here to register today!
Returners:
Miles Mikolas
Another aging Cards pitcher who is coming off a disappointing 2023 campaign. With 201.1 IP, Mikolas was one of just five pitchers to pitch over 200 innings last season. It was the second consecutive season in which he has gone over 200 IP, unfortunately, that's about the extent of the similarities between his 2023 and 2022 campaigns. He was still very stingy with walks (1.74 BB/9) but his 6.12 K/9 was a career-low and his 42.8% HardHit% was a career-high. Mikolas struggled to keep the ball out of the air, which can be problematic for a contact pitcher. Batters' average launch angle was 15.0, and Mikolas' GB% was 38.5%, both of which were career worsts. The 35-year-old will have to figure out a way to keep the ball on the ground and it will start with locating his 4-seamer and sinker. These two pitches were once Mikolas' bread and butter but became his enemy last season. He posted values of -1.0 wFA and -13.0 wSI last season, those numbers were 10.2 and 9.0, respectively, back in 2022.
The Rest:
Battling for the last spot in the Red Birds rotation (once Gray is healthy) are two youngsters from the Cards farm system: Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson, and another veteran Steven Matz. All three are southpaws and one, possibly two, should get an extended run in the Cards rotation this season. Liberatore has seen some MLB action over the past two seasons. His stuff hasn't proved to be particularly impressive, he owns a 5.51/4.99 ERA/xFIP with a 28.0% O-Swing%, 8.0% SwStr%, and 6.91 K/9 through 96.1 big league innings. Thompson has hurled 101.0 MLB innings in the past two seasons with more success (3.65/3.87 ERA/xFIP and 8.82 K/9), but most of his work came out of the bullpen (10 starts). Matz has been an up-and-down starter throughout his nine-year career but put together one of his better campaigns in 2023. He finished with a 3.86/3.96 ERA/xFIP and 8.40 K/9 through 105.0 innings (17 starts). Overall there isn't much to get excited about here, but just off of age, there is a little more optimism going forward with Liberatore (24) and Thompson (26). Matz (32) has been around for long enough that it's hard to see him making a significant breakthrough at this stage of his career.
Around the League:
Jose Berrios, SP, TOR
Berrios continued his solid Spring Training on Tuesday against the Yankees. He gave up one run on three hits while fanning three across 3.1 innings of work. Berrios now has seven strikeouts with a 1.08 ERA in 8.1 innings this spring. The 29-year-old has shown some glimpses of ace potential in his career but has settled into a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. After having a career-worst season in his first season in Toronto in 2022, Berrios bounced back with a solid 2023 campaign. He relied less on his 4-seamer (career-low 20.4% usage rate) and used his two-seamer with more regularity (career-high 31.5%). The change resulted in the lowest average Launch Angle (11.8) of his career while also giving him his best HardHit% (35.8) and Exit Velocity (88.0) since 2019. Berrios finished with a solid 3.65/4.01 ERA/xFIP and 8.73 K/9 across 189.2 innings. His current ADP is 159 (45th SP), which I like. Berrios seems to be learning how to use his stuff more effectively, and at 29 years old, it's not out of the question that he has a breakthrough-type season. If he doesn't, you're looking at an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 with an 8.50-9.50 K/9 in 190-200 IP...which he has done in five out of his seven big league seasons.
Oneil Cruz, SS, PIT
Cruz hit a lead-off homer on Tuesday afternoon, his fourth home run of Spring Training. He's hitting .300 with a 1.340 OPS in 24 plate appearances so far. The 25-year-old burst onto the scene with a bevy of tape-measure shots back in 2022. Then, he unfortunately missed nearly the entirety of the 2022 season after fracturing his fibula in April. His talent is unquestioned, but he will have to hone his aggressiveness and make more contact to be a consistent contributor. With a 17.5% BB% and 20% K% in his limited stint last season (40 PA), Cruz looked to be making strides in that department. However, the 7.8% BB% and 34.9% K% he posted in 2022 can't be forgotten. Yes, he did blister the ball when he made contact (15.5% Barrel% and 45.6% HardHit%), but there are still a lot of unknowns with Cruz coming into 2024. He is currently going as the 12th SS off the board in fantasy drafts, you probably want to get a pair of shortstops if you are drafting Cruz in that range.
Juan Soto, OF, NYY
Soto has started his Yankees tenure at a blistering pace. He is slashing .429/.478/1.095 with four homers and ten RBI this spring. It's only Spring Training, but putting Soto's skill set in front of (or behind) Aaron Judge at Yankee Stadium seems like a recipe for success. His patience and eye have made him a bit of a frustrating fantasy star throughout his career, but it's hard to argue with the incredible .421 lifetime OBP he currently totes. At 25 years old, in a favorable ballpark, with an almost nonexistent injury history, Soto is about as safe of a first-round pick (ADP 8) as there is.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., OF, MIA
The 26-year-old Chisholm is a talented player, but I think his current 66.2 ADP is much too high. He has the blend of power and speed that is coveted in most fantasy formats, however, his propensity for injury and lack of overall bat skills make him a huge risk. He does hit the ball hard (12.2% Barrel% and 41.8% HardHit% in '23) but he hits a lot of groundballs (47.8%) and seems to have holes in his swing. Chisolm had a 15.2% SwStr% and a 74.4% Z-Contact% last season which culminated in a hefty 30.8% K%. If healthy, he can rack up the counting stats, but his inability to get on base (career .304 OBP) makes him a liability even when health isn't a concern.
Injuries:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B, TOR
After battling a jammed finger earlier this spring, Vlad has been out the past few days with a knee contusion. The Jays say they are just being cautious with the 24-year-old and that he should be good to go in a few days. Vlad doesn't have much of an injury history in his brief major-league career, but it's not something you want to have to worry about after the underwhelming seasons (by his standards) he put up the past two years.
Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY
Cole underwent more tests on his elbow on Tuesday but the Yankees have not made public any of the results. What manager Aaron Boone did say is that he is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day. Considering Cole is the third pitcher going off the board in fantasy drafts, the status of his elbow is of paramount importance right now. It doesn't seem like it's going to be something that requires surgery, but getting an idea of how long the injury will sideline him would be nice. Hopefully, you aren't drafting until there is more clarity on the severity of Cole's injury.
Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
The MRI on Judge's abdomen came back negative. He will take a few days off from swinging then hopefully get back at it later this week. Given Judge's injury history and his draft stock, this isn't ideal. As usual, you're drafting him knowing the injury risk, but if he is healthy, Judge's power will carry your fantasy team.
Kenley Jansen, RP, BOS
Jansen (lat) tossed a bullpen session on Tuesday and is slated to make his first spring appearance on Friday. The 36-year-old came into camp with lat soreness but looks like he is ready to ramp up his preseason routine just in time to be ready for Opening Day. Jansen is coming back for his second season as closer for the Red Sox. He converted 29 of 33 saves last season but was again unable to regain his form from his Dodger days. Jansen allowed career-highs in exit velo (89.8) and HardHit% (35.9%). His K/9 also dipped (10.48) and his 4.61 xFIP was the worst of his career.
