Cal Raleigh (C-SEA) has enjoyed a strong start to spring training as he's batted .286 with 2 homers, 7 RBI, and 4 runs scored across 16 PA entering Sunday's action. Yes, it's a tiny sample size in somewhat-meaningful preseason action, but it's good to see Raleigh already displaying his trademark power. The 27 year-old is coming off his strongest MLB campaign yet, one in which he hit .232 with 30 dingers, 75 RBI, and 78 runs scored, with a wRC+ of 111, across 569 PA. While his 28% strikeout rate wasn't great, it represented a slight improvement from his 30% in that department in 2022 while his walk rate ticked upward from 9% to 9.5%. Raleigh, meanwhile, continued to make lots of hard contact (41% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of 89.5 mph per Statcast) while slightly elevating his contact rate (up to 72% from 71%) and chasing less (o-swing% down from 36% to 34.5%). He appears unlikely to hit for even a neutral average, but Raleigh provides premium power at the catcher position while playing regularly (145 games last season), piling up RBI and runs scored.
Josh Naylor (1B-CLE) has appeared comfortable at the dish so far in spring training, as he's hitting .333 with 3 RBI, a run scored, and a stolen base across his first 22 PA of preseason action. The 26 year-old is coming of a productive 2023 campaign that was his best yet in the majors as he hit .308 with 17 homers, 97 RBI, 52 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases across 495 PA, with a robust wRC+ of 128; all of those stats except for the homer total are career highs. Even as he cut his strikeout rate to just 14%, Naylor raised his average launch angle to a career-high 12.3 while continuing to hit the ball with some authority (41% hard-hit rate, 8% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of 89 mph her Statcast). His groundball rate was a career-low 42%, which is more of what you want to see for a guy that everyone expects to hit for more power. But as was the case in 2022, Naylor missed a few weeks of action because of injury. He's unlikely to become a fantasy superstar, but a .280 average and 20+ homers is very much in the cards in 2024.
Gavin Lux (2B/OF-LAD) lost his entire 2023 season to a torn ACL sustained in February, which was a disappointment as he was poised to assume the Dodgers' full-time SS gig following the departure of Corey Seager. He's had a strong spring training so far, with a .348 average, 3 RBI, and 5 runs scored across 26 PA, with an identical walk and strikeout rate of 12%. His 2022 campaign (.276 average, 6 homers, 42 RBI, 66 runs scored, and 7 steals over 471 PA, with a healthy wRC+ of 114) wasn't spectacular by any means, but it represented a step forward from his 2021 season (.242 average, 7 dingers, 46 RBI, 49 runs scored, and 4 thefts across 381 PA, with a below-average wRC+ of 90). The plus power rating that Lux had as a prospect haven't yet translated to the major as he's largely been a liners and grounders guy (22% and 49%, respectively, in 2022). He can take another step forward in 2024 if he can stay healthy and raise his launch angle (just under 7 in 2022). It's worth noting that although he was expected to start at SS entering the 2024 season, he's moved back to 2B after struggling with consistently throwing from SS to 1B; Mookie Betts will now man SS for the Dodgers.
CJ Abrams (SS-WSH) is in the midst of a solid spring training as he's batting .250 with a homer, 2 RBI, and 3 stolen bases across 21 PA, with a 14% strikeout rate in that very small sample size. The 23 year-old flashed his fantasy potential in 2023 as he hit .245 with 18 dingers, 64 RBI, 83 runs scored, and 47 stolen bases (in 51 attempts) across 614 PA, with a below-average wRC+ of 90. Although Abrams's hit tool was graded as having plus potential when he was a prospect, that's yet to translate to the majors while his average power and plus-plus speed have already manifested. He doesn't fan a ton (19% in 2023) and his contact rate is roughly average at 81%, but Abrams's Statcast figures - an average exit velocity of 87 mph, a hard-hit rate of 36%, and a barrel rate of 7% - are all pretty pedestrian. For the right price on draft day, he'd be a solid addition to fantasy rosters with a reasonable expectation of about a .250 average, 12+ homers, and 40ish stolen bases.
Royce Lewis (3B-MIN) is a hot commodity in fantasy circles entering the 2024 season based on what he did in only 58 games of action in 2023 as he spent most of the campaign on the IL. The 24 year-old first overall pick from the 2017 amateur draft was highly productive when on the field last season, hitting .309 with 15 dingers, 52 RBI, 36 runs scored, and 6 steals across 239 PA, with a robust wRC+ of 155. He fanned at a reasonable 23% clip while drawing free passes at a pretty average 8% rate. His Statcast metrics were pretty good, with a 41% hard-hit rate, average exit velocity of 90 mph, and a 12% barrel rate. With an average launch angle of 16, he generated lots of liners (21%) and flyballs (44%). There's no doubting the talent here, but Lewis's extensive injury history makes him a risky draft pick. Take him if it's good value and have a backup plan at 3B. For what it's worth, he's looking good in spring training (.375 average, 1 homer, 6 RBI, 2 runs scored, and a 21% strikeout and 16% walk rate in 19 PA).
Wyatt Langford (OF-TEX) is only entering his second campaign of professional baseball, looks primed to make his big-league debut in 2024, perhaps out of spring training. The 22 year-old out of the University of Florida rocketed through the minors after being selected fourth overall in the draft finishing the season in Triple-A. His longest stint at any one stop came in High-A, where he logged 106 PA in which he batted .333 with 5 dingers, 15 RBI, 22 runs scored, and 7 steals while fanning and walking at an identical 17% clip. He acquitted himself well in smaller samples in both Double-A and Triple-A, putting his tantalizing combination of plus power and plus speed on full display to go along with his above-average hit tool. The biggest knock on Langford - and what could force him to spend more time in the minors even though his bat seems ready for the majors - is his below-average defense. So far, he's producing in spring training with a .304 average, 4 big flies, 9 RBI, and 6 runs scored across 29 PA; his 14% walk rate is nice, although his strikeout rate is high at 31% in the small sample size. He's worth rostering in case he makes the big-league roster out of spring training, otherwise he should be closely monitored for a quick add once he does get the call.
Michael Harris II (OF-ATL) endured a slow start to the 2023 season as he batted just .255 with 9 dingers, 26 RBI, 33 runs scored, and 11 stolen bases across 231 PA before the All-Star break, with a below-average wRC+ of 93, but he picked things up after the break as he hit .325 with 9 homers, 31 RBI, 43 runs scored, and 9 thefts over 274 PA after the break, with a stronger wRC+ of 134. On the year, then, he had a stat line of .293 with 18 round trippers, 57 RBI, and 75 runs scored across 539 PA, a stat line quite similar to that of his rookie season, albeit in almost 100 more PA. The good news is that he slashed his strikeout rate from 24% to under 19% while raising his average launch angle from 4.5 to 8. According to Statcast, Harris also elevated his hard-hit rate from 45% to 48% and his average exit velocity from 89.5 mph to 91 mph. Encouragingly, he's off to a strong start in spring training as he's batting .400 with 3 homers, 5 RBI, 6 runs scored, and a theft across his first 23 PA. A 25-25 campaign with a .280 average is very possible for Harris in 2024.
Esteury Ruiz (OF-OAK) has put together a solid stat line so far in spring training (.333 average, 1 homer, and 4 runs scored across 26 PA), but he's effectively a one-category contributor for fantasy. In 2023, then-24 year-old batted just 254 with 5 homers, 47 RBI, and 47 runs scored across 497 PA, with an anemic 4% walk rate; his wRC+ was well below average at 86. He made the most of his meager .307 OBP and singles-oriented game, however, as Ruiz swiped 67 bags, albeit in 80 attempts. His contact rate isn't great for a guy with almost no pop and an allergy to taking free passes, and his Statcast metrics aren't at all encouraging (19% hard-hit rate, 83 mph average exit velocity, and 2.5% barrel rate). Reports out of spring training indicate that he's improved his mechanics at the plate and has increased his average exit velocity, so perhaps he can raise his average a bit and pop 10+ homers. As things currently stand, Ruiz can be a late-round selection for fantasy owners desperate for steals but he won't offer much else.
Triston McKenzie (SP-CLE) is coming off of a 2023 season that he largely spent on the IL, as he made only four starts in which he recorded a 5.06 ERA, 9 K/9, 7.3 BB/9, and 6.07 xFIP in 16 IP. It's virtually impossible to try to glean anything of value from that except the fact that McKenzie has now logged more than 120 IP in a season only once since he reached the majors back in 2020 (although not reaching that figure in the COVID-shortened season is understandable). McKenzie has struggled to stay on the field, which makes him a bit of a lottery ticket for fantasy, as his one full season in 2022 was pretty good (2.96 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 3.77 xFIP in 191.1 IP). Reports indicate that McKenzie is fully healthy and looking good so far this spring, and his first spring training start against the Brewers was solid (2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB, 2 K). Considering his injury history and upside, he should be drafted as a back-end arm for fantasy rotations although he could easily offer mid-rotation value if he can stay on the field.
Aaron Civale (SP-TB) is reportedly working on narrowing his pitch mix during the preseason with a goal of more effectively retiring right-handed batters. His spring training stats haven't exactly been impressive so far (16.88 ERA, 3.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 7.59 xFIP in just 2.2 IP), but the sample size is very small and this is certainly a case where spring training action is more about working on things than putting up good stats. Civale is coming off a 2023 campaign that was one of his best in the majors to date as he compiled a 3.46 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 4.10 xFIP across 122.1 IP. With an average fastball velocity of just 92 mph, Civale doesn't miss lots of bats (10% swinging-strike rate) and lives on inducing weak contact (36% hard-hit rate in 2023 per Statcast). The move to the Rays was intriguing from a fantasy standpoint as that club has a track record of getting the most out of its arms, but fantasy owners should be aware that Civale has yet to surpass 125 IP in a season since he reached the majors in 2019.
Edward Cabrera (SP-MIA) was scratched from his scheduled spring training start against the Astros on Sunday because of shoulder tightness. The club described the move as precautionary, but it's nevertheless a concerning development as many view Cabrera as a breakout candidate for this season. He was enjoying a strong spring in which he's recorded a 0.00 ERA, 9 K/9, 0 BB/9, and 2.88 xFIP in 5 IP. The usual small "sample size" and "don't put too much stock into spring training stats" caveats apply, but it's encouraging to see the 25 year-old righty perform well in the early going of the preseason. Especially encouraging is the control he's displayed so far after posting a BB/9 of 6 across 99.2 IP last season, in which he also compiled a 4.24 ERA, 10.7 K/9, and 4.30 xFIP. Especially considering the atrocious walk rate, the balance of his numbers are impressive as Cabrera posted a solid 12% swinging-strike rate while limiting opponents to a 72% contact rate and not surrendering a ton of loud contact (35% hard-hit rate, 7% barrel rate, and average exit velocity of under 88 mph per Statcast). Should he continue to display considerably improved control going into the regular season, Cabrera is a nice breakout candidate considering his track record of missing bats.
Cristian Javier (SP-HOU) has had an interesting start to spring training as he has amassed a 3.00 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, and 3.97 xFIP through his first two starts (6 IP). That's obviously a tiny sample size, but it's encouraging to see him ramp up the strikeouts after his K/9 sagged to just 8.8 last season The walks, however, are something to keep an eye on as control has never been a strong suit and his BB/9 came in at 3.4 last year. A pretty average 11% swinging-strike rate was a big part of the reason for that dip after that figure came in above 13% the previous two seasons. Meanwhile, opposing hitters posted a career-worst 33% contact rate against him, and more loud contact doesn't pair well with a flyball-oriented batted-ball profile (56% flyball rate). Even a quick glance at Javier's peripherals in 2022 suggested that he was due for regression as his 2.54 ERA came with a 3.53 xFIP which indicated that he enjoyed some good fortune and some correction was due in 2023. And something was definitely off as the 26 year-old's average heater velocity was down a full tick to under 93 mph last season. Keep an eye on him as spring training unfolds, but one would be wise to not view him as more than a mid-rotation arm at best for fantasy.
Carlos Rodon (SP-NYY) wasn't exactly sharp through his first two spring training starts, as he owns a 6.35 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, and 5.86 xFIP across 5.2 IP. The 31 year-old southpaw has, moreover, surrendered a trio of homers in those outings. One doesn't want to put too much stock into spring training performances, but Rodon is very much under the microscope as he begins his second season with the Yankees after the first one was an utter disaster. He was on the IL for over half of the campaign and largely ineffective otherwise as he compiled a 6.85 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, and 5.30 xFIP across 14 starts (64.1 IP). The homers were up (15% HR/FB and 2.1 HR/9) as opposing hitters made lots of hard contact (12% barrel rate, 92 mph average exit velocity, and 42% hard-hit rate per Statcast). And even as his control slumped, his swinging-strike rate dipped to 12.5% after it came in north of 14% the previous two seasons. Rodon was a fantasy ace in 2021 and 2022, but at this point he's a lottery ticket in fantasy.
Will Smith (RP-KC) signed with the Royals during the offseason and is expected to serve as the club's closer to start the season. The 34 year-old southpaw, however, did not exactly excel in 2023 with the Rangers as he lost his hold on the closer role. Across 57.1 IP, Smith compiled a 4.40 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and 4.30 xFIP. While a 13.5% swinging-strike rate isn't bad, tat's his lowest figure in that department since 2016 while the opposition's 73% contact rate against him was his highest since he first reached the majors with the Royals back in 2012. Although he limited opposing hitters to a below league-average 34% hard-hit rate, they still ripped plenty of liners (23%) as his sub-30% groundball rate was a career low. Smith especially scuffled after the All-Star break to the tune of a putrid 6.12 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 4.59 xFIP in 25 IP. Especially if they perform well, John Schreiber or James McArthur could supplant Smith as the closer in KC should the latter again struggle.
Alexis Diaz (RP-CIN) might appear to be a strong closer option for fantasy leagues in 2024 based on his 3.07 ERA and 11.5 K/9 across 67.1 IP in which he racked up 37 saves, but a closer look raises some red flags. While those numbers are nice, he issued tons of free passes (4.8 BB/9) and his xFIP was high at 4.20, pointing to some good fortune in the form of a .267 BABIP and 7% HR/FB suppressing his ERA. Sure, a 15% swinging strike rate and 68% contact rate are stellar, but the control issues are worrisome while Statcast shows a 42% hard-hit rate with an average exit velocity of 90 mph on batted balls. Also consider that Diaz followed up an excellent first half of the season (2.03 ERA, 13.7 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 3.12 xFIP in 40 IP before the All-Star break) with a 4.61 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, and 5.78 xFIP over 27.1 IP after the All-Star break. I'd look elsewhere for saves as a fantasy owner in 2024.
