SP Notes
Corbin Burnes, BAL
The Orioles will be counting on the newly-acquired Burnes to be the ace of their rotation this season, especially with Kyle Bradish set to open the season on the IL. Burnes was among the elite pitchers in baseball from 2020-2022, posting a 2.62 ERA, 2.66 xFIP, 11.86 K/9, and 2.29 BB/9 across those three seasons. He took a step back last season, recording a still solid 3.39 ERA, but also a less than dominant 3.80 xFIP. Most of his underlying skills have been heading in the wrong direction; over the past 3 seasons, his K% has dropped from 35.6% to 30.5% to 25.5%, while his BB% has climbed from 5.2% to 6.4% to 8.4%. His SwStr% has similarly declined from 16.6% to 15.1% to 12.2% and his GB% also hit a career low 44.1%. The projections mostly have Burnes finishing with an ERA in the mid-3.00's and a WHIP around the 1.15/1.20 range, which is all fine, but he's currently going as the #3 SP in drafts with an ADP in the late 2nd round and that seems too early for a guy who clearly trended downward last season.
Logan Gilbert, SEA
Gilbert has been a solid producer since joining the Mariners rotation in 2021, accumulating a 3.76 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.92 K/9, and 2.05 BB/9 across 88 starts. While his ERA jumped from 3.20 in 2022 to 3.73 in 2023, he was actually better last season by many indications, as his K% went up, his BB% went down, and his GB% increased as well. His SwStr% also bumped up from 10.8% to 12.1% thanks to a 4% increase in his O-Swing%. Gilbert hasn't reached ace status, but his low walk rate and his consistency and reliability make him a solid value with an ADP in the 7th round.
Logan Webb, SF
No pitcher other than Webb has made at least 25 starts in each of the past three seasons while recording an ERA below 3.30 each year. Webb's underlying metrics back up his success, as he owns a 3.05 xFIP over that three year period. He's not a huge strikeout guy, but he has consistently excellent control, having posted a BB/9 just above 2.00 in 2021 and 2022 before lowering that number to an exceptional 1.29 last season. He also consistently puts up a GB% around 60%. Webb pitches in a favorable home park in San Francisco and he has taken advantage, compiling a career 2.76 ERA at home along with a microscopic 0.44 HR/9, compared to a 4.07 ERA and 0.93 HR/9 on the road. If you're okay with getting K's from elsewhere, Webb is a good choice currently going as the 15th SP off the board.
Hunter Greene, CIN
Greene had mostly a year to forget in 2023, recording an ugly 4.82 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 22 starts. But that came with an elite 12.21 K/9, which was the 2nd highest in MLB among pitchers with at least 100 IP. His high walk rate (3.86 BB/9) and high FB% (46.7%) are both reasons for concern, and the latter is especially problematic when he's pitching at Great American Ball Park, where he allowed 2.68 HR/9. He did finish 2023 on a relatively strong note, posting a 44:9 K:BB and 3.53 xFIP over his final 6 starts (32 IP). He won't cost you a high draft pick and could be a worthwhile target considering his strikeout abilities and high upside.
Hunter Brown, HOU
Brown's stock has fallen over the past year due to a disastrous 5.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 2024. He especially fell apart towards the end of the season, recording an 8.22 ERA over his last 10 appearances (8 starts). There was plenty of bad luck contributing to these results however, as he suffered from a .330 BABIP, 21.0% HR/FB, and 68.8% LOB%, all of which are likely to regress in the positive direction. Overall, he had a strong 3.52 xFIP thanks to a 10.29 K/9 and an excellent 52.4% GB%. Brown is one of the better bets to have a bounceback season in 2024, and is someone to target in the later rounds of fantasy drafts.
Chris Sale, ATL
Sale got his spring training off to a good start, striking out 4 in two perfect innings against the Pirates in his debut for the Braves. He is coming off a season in which he posted a 4.30 ERA for the Red Sox, but that came with a 3.72 xFIP, 10.96 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, and 13.2% SwStr%, numbers which are all good to great. The move to Atlanta should if nothing else give him a better chance at accumulating wins in 2024. Injuries have been an issue for Sale over the past few seasons, but if he comes out of spring healthy, he looks like a strong value going in the 14th round.
Braxton Garrett, MIA
Garrett is currently recovering from a shoulder injury and the Marlins are expecting him to be ready for Opening Day. Garrett is coming off a strong 2023 in which he posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 159.2 IP, and his 3.42 xFIP suggests he may have even been better than that. Digging a bit deeper, after getting clobbered by Atlanta in early May, Garrett recorded a 3.24 ERA (3.31 xFIP) over his final 25 starts. His 8.79 K/9 last season was solid if not spectacular, while his 1.63 BB/9 was excellent and his 49.1% GB% was strong as well. Garrett's ADP is currently hovering near 200, and his shoulder injury may be factoring into that, but if he is indeed set to be healthy to start the season, that's quite a bargain. Fantistics is projecting a 3.56 ERA and 1.12 WHIP from Garrett in 2024.
Yusei Kikuchi, TOR
Kikuchi had his best MLB season thus far in 2023, finishing with a 3.86 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 181 K's across 167.2 IP. Those numbers would be serviceable in most fantasy leagues, but fantasy owners don't seem to be buying it, as his ADP is currently outside the top-250. It's understandable to doubt Kikuchi, who finished with an ERA north of 5.00 in 3 of his 4 big league seasons entering 2023. But his 3.77 xFIP last year suggests that he didn't just get lucky, and in fact, his 3.86 xFIP since the start of the 2020 season indicates that he may have been unlucky in previous years. He compiled a 9.72 K/9 and career best 2.58 BB/9 in 2023 and could have been even better if not for a .314 BABIP. It's also worth noting that Kikuchi improved as the season went on, recording a 3.56 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, and 129:29 K:BB across 111.1 IP from June 1 and onwards (21 starts). Fantistics has Kikuchi projected for a 3.89 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 2024 which would easily make him a value at the end of drafts.
Dylan Cease, CWS
After finishing 2nd in the AL Cy Young voting in 2022, Cease took a major step back in 2023, finishing with a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across 33 starts. He still racked up plenty of strikeouts (10.88 K/9) but his high walk rate (4.02 BB/9) came back to bite him, as his LOB% fell from 82.3% in 2022 to 69.4 last season. Cease's .330 BABIP and 4.08 xFIP indicate that he did have some bad luck, but the fact is he has a career 3.83 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, and 4.02 BB/9. He'll come at a discount from where he was drafted a year ago, and he'll still be a reliable source of strikeouts, but the 9th round is still a bit of an investment for someone who is unlikely to help your ratios.
Brayan Bello, BOS
It was a tale of two halves for Bello who posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 80 first half innings, while falling to a 5.49 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 77 IP after the break. Looking at his peripherals though, the halves weren't really that different; his xFIP rose slightly from 3.95 to 4.10. What changed was his luck, as his BABIP rose from .279 to .333 and his HR/FB skyrocketed from 11.0% to 23.9%. Bello's strength is his GB% (56.2%), but his low strikeout rate (7.57 K/9) limits his upside. He won't cost you much during draft season, but he also isn't a great bet to provide a lot of strikeouts or helpful ratios.
Julio Teheran, BAL
Teheran signed a minor league deal with the Orioles earlier in the week, and will have a chance to compete for a spot in the team's rotation. With Kyle Bradish and John Means both expected to open the season on the IL, Teheran appears to be battling Tyler Wells and Cole Irvin for the final two spots in Baltimore's starting five. He has battled injuries and ineffectiveness over the past few seasons, posting a 5.92 ERA across 108 IP since the start of the 2020 season. On the positive side, he recorded a 1.13 WHIP for the Brewers last season, thanks to an exceptional 1.63 BB/9. It's hard to assume that he can replicate that though, as he hadn't had a BB/9 below 3.40 since 2016. Coming off a 6.28 K/9 season, it's not likely that he'll provide significant value this season.
Tristan Beck, SF
Beck was diagnosed with an aneurysm in his arm on Thursday, and will at least miss the start of the 2024 season. Beck was expected to serve as the Giants #5 starter this season after making 33 appearances (3 starts) for the team in 2023. He recorded a 3.92 ERA across 85 IP, including his three September starts in which he posted a 7.50 ERA across 12 IP. He had a below average strikeout rate even as reliever, so he wasn't on fantasy radars even before the injury, but now it remains to be seen when he will take the mound again. With the Giants already having suffered injuries to two of their projected starters, there could be more of an incentive for the team to pursue the remaining available free agent pitchers (Snell and Montgomery).
Emmet Sheehan, LAD
Sheehan (soreness) is questionable for Opening Day for the Dodgers, and there's a good chance he won't be available for the team's opening two game series against the Padres in Seoul, South Korea. Sheehan made 11 starts and two relief appearances for the Dodgers, and posted a 4.92 ERA across 60.1 IP. He showed good strikeout stuff with a 9.55 K/9, but also recorded a bloated 3.88 BB/9 and 53.5% FB%. He finished the season strong however, compiling a 3.68 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, and 34:8 K:BB across 22 IP in five September appearances, so he has some momentum heading into this season whenever he is ready to go. He did have trouble going deep into games last season though, as he only completed 5 IP in 6 of his 11 starts, so that could limit him from a fantasy perspective.
James Paxton, LAD
Paxton made his spring debut for the Dodgers on Thursday, striking out 4 in 2 IP while allowing 1 ER on 2 hits. After missing nearly two entire seasons due to injury, Paxton was effective for the Red Sox in 2023, finishing with a 4.50 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, and 101:33 K:BB across 96 IP covering 19 starts. While those numbers don't jump off the page, keep in mind that he had a 3.34 ERA (3.69 xFIP) through his first 16 starts before falling off the rail in his last 3 outings. Pitching for the Dodgers could be a good situation for him, although the team tends to finds ways to get their veteran starters some rest throughout the season, so don't anticipate Paxton finishing the season with 30+ starts.
Nick Lodolo, CIN
There was plenty of hype around Lodolo heading into last season after he posted an 11.41 K/9 and 3.66 ERA as a rookie in 2022. That hype has quickly faded however after Lodolo was limited to 7 starts last season due to a leg injury, and finished with a disastrous 6.29 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. Don't give up on him yet though, as he retained his high strikeout rate (12.23 K/9) and actually improved his walk rate (2.62 BB/9) en route to a solid 3.78 xFIP. He got extremely unlucky in the small sample size with a .435 BABIP and 27.0 HR/FB. Pitching his home games in Great American Ball Park is not ideal, but there's still a lot of upside here if he can remain healthy.
Nick Pivetta, BOS
After finishing 2023 with an ERA of 4.04, Pivetta has still yet to complete an MLB season with an ERA south of 4.00. While the ERA was once again disappointing, it was perhaps Pivetta's best season yet, as he posted a career high 11.54 K/9, thanks to a 3% jump in his SwStr% and a 5% jump in his O-Swing%. His 3.15 BB/9 and 3.55 xFIP were both his lowest marks since 2018. To be fair, Pivetta spent much of the season in the Red Sox bullpen, but his success carried over as a starter as well, as he recorded a 10.86 K/9 and 3.76 xFIP across his 19 starts. It's hard to trust a pitcher who has never had an ERA below 4.00, but he may be worth a flier to see if his gains from last year are able to stick.
