Jhoan Duran, RP (MIN)
Duran was knocked around in his Grapefruit League debut, allowing four runs on three hits and a walk in two-thirds of an inning. The fireballer topped out at 100.5 mph, which is about a mile per hour less than his average from 2023. These details should be ignored at this point in the preseason as he will likely work his arm into increased velocity. Duran is entering his first full season as the Twins' closer without much competition in the bullpen. Although he blew five saves last year, the 26 year old offers massive strikeout upside and should help in the ratios categories, in spite of an elevated walk rate. Opposing hitters have posted a .204 batting average through two seasons, and due to a 66% groundball rate, he is elite at limiting home runs. It all makes for a top-five closing option with the potential to finish as the top fantasy stopper in 2024.
Tarik Skubal, SP (DET)
The hype is real, baby! Skubal flashed his triple-digit velocity, almost, during his first appearance this spring. The 27-year-old lefthander reportedly touched 100-mph during batting practice, which is a noticeable increase from his previous average in the mid-90's. On Wednesday he maxed out at 99.6-mph while holding the Pirates hitless for two innings. He walked one and struck out two in the outing. Skubal was brilliant in half a season after returning from forearm surgery last season. He struck out more batters while reducing his walks. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain the low walk rate along with the increased velocity. However, even mild regression in walks would be of little concern considering the immense upside presented throughout his profile. He has become an SP1 who offers the ceiling of a top-five overall starter. Dare I say he could be a first-round consideration in 2025?
Alex Lange, RP (DET)
I'm becoming more convinced Lange could lose his closing job before the regular season even begins. It's difficult to imagine how the Tigers came to the conclusion he should regain his role at the backend of the bullpen in spite of a 15.6% walk rate last season. Detroit is seemingly attempting to build a contender so why didn't the front office bring in a more qualified option? Lange has a potent arsenal with a solid mix of offspeed breaking options and fastball velocity, but he just doesn't consistently command his pitches and that presents too much volatility for the 9th inning. Jason Foley is an option to take over the position, but he doesn't offer near the dominant strikeout skills of Lange. Andrew Chafin was brought in as a veteran with moderate closing experience, but he has never excelled in the role. The sleeper to me is Will Vest. He has good velocity on his fastball mixed with a nice change-of-pace slider and changeup. He can strike guys out and limits free passes and home runs. Lange is probably a bit sexier, but Vest offers sneaky value in deep draft-and-hold leagues. With that being said, the Tigers could always explore the market for a more certified closer.
Max Muncy, 3B (LAD)
Muncy avoided a serious injury after getting hit by a pitch on his left hand during a game on Wednesday. X-rays were negative and he is considered day-to-day. Muncy has never finished with 500 at-bats in a season, and there's no reason to expect the veteran infielder to hit that mark this year, particularly with the Dodgers loaded with depth and talent. Muncy has been an integral piece of the Dodgers' National League dominance in recent years, but injuries and an increase in strikeouts have impacted his reliability. He still has big home run power, as evidenced by his 36 home runs last season. He had a 91.2-mph average exit velocity and 14.6% barrel rate, but his contact rate was a career-low 72% and he had to sell out a bit more to reach that home run total. I question his full-time availability and his likelihood of topping 35 home runs again.
Sam Hilliard, OF (COL)
Sam Hilliard is headed back to Colorado after getting claimed off waivers from Baltimore. Hilliard played four seasons for the Rockies before spending 2023 with Atlanta and then getting claimed off waivers this offseason by Baltimore. In his one season with the Braves, Hilliard was primarily a pinch-hitter or pinch runner. He finished with three home runs and four stolen bases in 78 plate appearances. He hit .236 with a .295 OBP. Hilliard has pop, when he's able to make contact. His 90.6-mph career average exit is excellent, but his inability to make contact has stifled his career. He has a career 16.1% swinging-strike rate and has never really reached the 70% contact-rate threshold. It's very possible he fails to make the Rockies' Opening Day roster, and even if he does, his playing time will likely be scarce, but if he could only cut down his swings, there is a fantasy skillset hidden within.
Ryan Helsley, RP (STL)
Helsley made his second appearance of the spring and looked better than the first. He went one-two-three with a strikeout in the 3rd inning against the Mets. His velocity was up two miles per hour from his first appearance as he works his way back up to the high-90's, where he sat last year. Helsley is on the borderline of a fantasy tier near the top of the closer position. His ceiling is extremely high. Combined with elite strikeout potential and limited home runs allowed, Helsley could be a surefire RP1, but it largely depends on whether he can rein his walks in and ultimately hold onto the job. The Cardinals have been hesitant to completely hand him the position and actually brought in veteran relievers Andrew Kittredge and Keynan Middleton during the offseason. That adds to a crowded backend of the bullpen with Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos and JoJo Romero. Helsley is the most talented and offers the most upside, but whether St. Louis commits to him is the biggest question.
Aledmys Diaz, 3B/SS (OAK)
Diaz is a little banged up with a left hip injury, but he shouldn't miss more than a day or two. The veteran infielder is unlikely to be jettisoned from the A's roster despite posting a career-low 72 wRC+ in his first season in Oakland. Diaz is a weak hitter who occasional leans into a home run, but he's a long way off from his 15+ homer seasons of earlier in his career. Unfortunately for the rebuilding Athletics, Diaz is owed over $7 million this season so he will probably clog a spot on the roster for some time. The A's may use the occasional nick or bruise to their advantage by sending Diaz to the injured list, but he has very little fantasy upside for any of us to care.
Jose Caballero, 3B (TB)
Caballero is an interesting late sleeper. He offers 30+ stolen base upside and a decent EYE. He has never displayed any power, last year posting a miserable 83.3-mph average exit velocity in 231 Major League at-bats. He was subsequently traded to the Rays for Luke Raley in January. Even with Tampa Bay bringing in Amed Rosario, Caballero has the potential to play every day, particularly as Wander Franco faces legal troubles in the Dominican Republic. The news on Wednesday is that the Rays are encouraging Caballero to pull the ball in the air more. That's been an approach the team has taken with other players in the past, particularly Isaac Paredes, but I am still skeptical the light-hitting Caballero can turn that into anything close to the home run numbers Paredes posted. Even so, his fantasy upside is intriguing. At the very worst, he has very good speed and multiple position eligibility.
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Justin Verlander, SP (HOU)
With one month until Opening Day, the Astros are not yet ruling Justin Verlander out. The future Hall of Famer has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has impacted his spring training, but he is throwing bullpen sessions and ramping his way up towards game action. The 41-year-old made 27 starts last year, and although that would be an unlikely number to reach this year, it's hard to ever count him out. From a fantasy perspective, Verlander's strikeout numbers have rapidly declined over the past two seasons, and he is suddenly looking like a slightly above-average pitcher rather than the perennial ace of the past two decades. It would be easy to overlook him because of his age and declining skills, but he is still capable and shouldn't be dismissed.
Matt Brash, RP (SEA)
Brash is dealing with an injury and it appears serious. According to a report out of the Seattle Times, the high-leverage reliever has an arm injury that could possibly cause him to miss the entire season. This is a tough situation to navigate if you're drafting right now, but the Mariners will probably have more details soon. Brash played an important role in the M's bullpen last year, finishing with nine wins, four saves and a 3.06 ERA. He increased his strikeouts while dropping his walk rate below 10 percent. He regularly touched the high 90's with his fastball while featuring a slider that's 10-mph slower. It's a great combination, and the Mariners will miss his versatility in the bullpen. Andres Munoz is entrenched as Seattle's closer, but recently-acquired Gregory Santos should be the primary setup man and therefore the leader in holds.
Brady Singer, SP (KC)
Singer has revamped his arsenal, reimplementing a 4-seam fastball while developing a new sweeper. This was called for after a disappointing 2023 season in which the former first-round pick posted a career-high 5.52 ERA and a career-low strikeout rate. He was hit harder than ever and gave up the most home runs of his career. He is 500 innings into his career and his arbitration years are on the horizon so now is the time to refine his skills. In his spring training debut, Singer looked great, holding the Mariners scoreless with one hit in two innings. He only allowed one hit and didn't walk anyone. That is a very encouraging development as Singer tries to rebound. Count me intrigued and willing to take a late-round stab on the Royals starter.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP (LAD)
Yamamoto was electric in his spring-training debut, holding the Rangers scoreless in two innings while striking out three. He threw 16 of 19 pitches for strikes and only allowed one single. The massive international signee was incredibly dominant in Japan, racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. He throws multiple breaking pitches at various speeds and commands his whole arsenal. That explains why the Dodgers invested over $300 million dollars in him despite never throwing a Major League pitch. He will anchor a rotation for the most talented roster in the league, offering immense upside and an unusually high floor for a rookie.
Ricky Tiedemann, SP (TOR)
Tiedemann played catch on Wednesday as he works his way back from hamstring inflammation. The pitching prospect doesn't appear to be dealing with anything serious, but his history of injuries raises the alarm bells. He's totaled less than 125 innings combined through two minor league seasons, but when he has played, he has shown an insane skillset that continues to wow the baseball world. He's a big lefty with a good fastball/slider combination and an intriguing and improving changeup. The pitch mix is made for high strikeout totals, but he will need to stay healthy, limit the walks and develop some confidence in the organization that he can be a reliable member of the starting rotation. That's unlikely to happen at the outset of the season, but he could certainly make his way to Toronto before too long. The first step is getting back on the mound this spring.
Kyle Bradish, SP (BAL)
Bradish is working his way back from a UCL sprain. The Orioles' right-hander is now throwing from 90 feet and should be throwing to hitters in the near future. This is a very positive development two weeks after there were talks of Bradish having to sit out the entire season and possibly face Tommy John surgery. That's never off the table with a UCL injury, but Bradish said he was confident he'll return and the recent reports of long toss are optimistic. Bradish broke out last season with a 12-7 record and 2.83 ERA. He has always displayed good control but benefited with better command in the zone. There is a clear risk in drafting Bradish right now, but he's capable of delivering excellent results again.
Luis Medina, SP (OAK)
Medina took a positive step towards earning a spot in the A's rotation with two scoreless innings on Wednesday. The young fireballer is competing with a few different pitchers for a starting role. He mostly struggled in his rookie season in 2023 but finished with a strong performance in his final game, holding the Twins to one run on six innings. Medina's Achilles heel is undoubtedly a lack of control. He has never been able to limit free passes at any level of professional baseball and doesn't offer enough strikeout upside for a pitcher that allows that many baserunners.. What works is getting a lot of ground balls, which can turn into double plays and limit the big home runs. There just isn't enough here to generate fantasy production, even if he does secure the final rotation spot.
