Francisco Alvarez (C-NYM) made an impact as a rookie in 2023. Widely regarded as a top-10 prospect entering last season, Alvarez reached the majors in April. The 21 year-old's first full(ish) MLB campaign was a mixed bag as he compiled a below-average wRC+ of 97 while hitting just .209 with 25 longballs, 63 RBI, and 51 runs scored. He drew walks at an average 8% rate and fanned at a 26% clip. He showed off his power, as his 25 dingers ranked second among MLB catchers, but Alvarez's contact rate (71%) was low as he especially struggled to register consistent contact on pitches inside the zone (81% z-contact%). His swinging-strike rate was high at 13%, but better than anything he posted since A-ball back in 2021 and he chased at a below-average rate of 29%. Alvarez's 36% hard-hit rate came in slightly below average, but Statcast shows a healthy 12.5% barrel rate with an average exit velocity of 90mph. Especially given his age and prospect pedigree, Alvarez is an intriguing player for fantasy in 2024 as he enters his age-22 season. His low average - which rode on a paltry .222 BABIP - seems likely to climb in 2024, but for now that could help fantasy owners get him at a discount on draft day.
Spencer Steer (1B/2B/3B/OF-CIN) put together a productive rookie season in 2023. Lacking a clear defensive home, Steer's ability to (mediocrely) man multiple positions offers fantasy owners roster flexibility. He delivered with his bat across 665 PA, hitting .271 with 23 dingers, 86 RBI, 74 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases (in 18 attempts), with an above-average wRC+ of 118. Steer walked at a solid 10% rate and fanned at a reasonable 20% rate while his contact rate came in just below average at 78%. His 28% chase rate attested to his discipline at the dish, but his hard-hit rate came in at only 32% while his barrel rate was also unimpressive at under 7%. It was a pretty good season overall for a rookie, but fantasy owners should tap the brakes before getting too excited to draft him in 2024. Steer enjoyed a strong first half of the 2023 campaign, batting .277 with 14 homers, 51 RBI, 45 runs scored, and 9 stolen bases in 11 attempts across 376 PA, with a wRC+ of 124. He walked at an 11% rate and struck out at a 19% clip while registering a 34% hard-hit rate. But after the All-Star break, he hit .265 with 9 dingers, 35 RBI, 29 runs scored, and 6 steals in 7 attempts across 289 PA, with a wRC+ of 110. His walk rate dipped to 9% while his strikeout rate climbed to 24% and his hard-hit rate fell to under 30%. It was not a terrible second half, but it's concerning that Steer's production fell across the board.
Andres Gimenez (2B-CLE) was hyped in fantasy circles entering the 2023 campaign after a 2022 season in which then-23 year-old hit .297 with 17 homers, 69 RBI, 66 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases (in 23 attempts), with a well above-average wRC+ of 142 across 557 PA. But many key peripherals - such as a 75% contact rate, 26% hard-hit rate, and 41% chase rate - indicated that fantasy owners should have expected regression in 2023. And that's what happened, as he batted just .251 with 15 dingers, 62 RBI, 76 runs scored, and 30 steals (in 36 attempts), with a below-average wRC+ of 97 across 616 PA. He did trim his strikeout rate to 18% from 20% the year before, but his hard-hit rate remained subpar at 27%. He also raised his contact rate to 77% but chased more often (43% o-swing%) and made more contact when doing so (69%), which typically does not result in loud contact. As a 24 year-old preparing for his third full season of big-league action in 2024, Gimenez might still blossom into a .270-20-30 type of player, but his low contact rate and well below-average hard-hit rate in both 2022 and 2023 are not encouraging.
Colt Keith (2B-DET) appears likely to make his big-league debut soon after he signed a six-year, $28.6 million contract extension with the Tigers during the offseason. On the heels of a stellar 2023 season split between Double-A and Triple-A in which he hit .306 with 27 homers, 101 RBI, and 88 runs scored across 577 PA, Keith may soon become a fantasy contributor. He opened the 2023 season in Double-A, where he batted .325 with 14 homers, 50 RBI, 43 runs scored, and 2 steals (in 3 opportunities) across 276 PA, with a robust wRC+ of 163. Keith's strikeout rate climbed to 23% while his walk rate dipped to 9%, but neither figure was alarming as he ventured into the high minors at age 21. More success followed in Triple-A, where Keith hit .287 with 13 dingers, 51 RBI, 45 runs scored, and 1 theft (in 2 attempts) across 310 PA, with a wRC+ of 119. Encouragingly, he trimmed his strikeout rate to 19% and elevated his walk rate to 12% during his time in the highest level of the minors. At both levels, he ripped lots of liners (27% in Double-A and 23% in Triple-A) while logging an identical 34% groundball rate at each level. His strong hit tool and solid pop make Keith an intriguing player for fantasy in 2024, and the Tigers reportedly plan to play him at 2B after he did more work at 3B in the minors.
Anthony Volpe (SS-NYY) is reportedly working on flattening out his swing in advance of the 2024 campaign as the 22 year-old looks for greater consistency at the dish. It was a see-saw first season in the majors for Volpe, as he batted just .209 with 21 homers, 60 RBI, 62 runs scored, and 24 steals (in 29 attempts) across 601 plate appearances, with a subpar wRC+ of 84. His swinging-strike rate came in at 12.5% as he fanned at nearly a 28% clip. His walk rate was nearly average at under 9%. Contact was an issue as Volpe's contact rate came in at only 74% and he especially struggled to put the bat on the ball inside the zone (84% z-contact%). He, moreover, generated hard contact at a below-average 34% clip while his barrel rate came in just under the "good" range a 9%. The good news is that his chase rate was average (32%) while he ripped lots of liners (22%). A .259 BABIP does seem unlucky since his hard-hit rate wasn't terrible and he hit a bunch of line-drives. The hope is that the change to his swing will simplify things and lead to more consistent quality contact, which would elevate the average.
Kerry Carpenter (OF-DET) will miss a few days of action while dealing with a mild hamstring strain but should return to action soon. The 26 year-old offered surprising production in 2023 despite arriving in the majors as an unheralded prospect. Overall, his 2023 season was a solid one, as he logged a .278 average, 20 homers, 64 RBI, 57 runs scored, and went 6-6 in stolen base attempts across 459 PA, with a wRC+ of 121. He trimmed his strikeout rate to 25% (28% in his big-league debut in 2022) while raising his walk rate to 7% (5% in 2022), although neither figure is a good. Encouragingly, Carpenter elevated his hard-hit rate to 36% in his second run in the majors (33% in 2022) while raising his contact rate to 77% (74% in 2022) and cutting his swinging-strike rate to 12% (from 14%). A look at his splits shows some growth over the course of the 2023 campaign, as Carpenter hit .261 with 8 homers, 21 RBI, and 18 runs scored across 153 PA with a wRC+ of 116 before the All-Star break. After the break, he batted .287 with 12 dingers, 43 RBI, 39 runs scored, and a wRC+ of 124 in 265 PA. His strikeout rate did remain steady at 25% from the first half to the second half of the season, but he did slightly raise his walk rate (from 6% to over 7%) while generating more hard contact (up to 37% from 34%). Overall, it looks like Carpenter could be a solid #3 OF for fantasy in 2024. He does fan a decent bit, but should offer an average that doesn't hurt to go along with 25+ homers.
Evan Carter (OF-TEX) had x-rays on his left forearm come back negative on Sunday after he exited an exhibition game following an HBP; he should therefore be back in action soon. This comes after he put together an impressive 2023 campaign across three levels spanning Double-A, Triple-A, and the majors before making an impact during the Rangers' title run. He opened the season in Double-A, where his scouting profile - which includes plus contact and speed to go with average power - translated statistically. Across 462 PA, the then-20 year-old batted .284 with 12 dingers, 62 RBI, 68 runs scored, and 22 stolen bases, with a robust wRC+ of 133. He was promoted to Triple-A on his 21st birthday, but spent only a week there before getting the call to the majors in September. Carter acquitted himself well in a small sample size, logging just 75 PA as Rangers management largely "protected" him from lefties. He hit .306 with 5 homers, 12 RBI, 15 runs scored, and 3 steals (in 3 attempts), with a wRC+ of 180. Although a 36% HR/FB is unsustainable, Carter made lots of hard contact (41%), which paired well with a 21% liner rate and 36% flyball rate, both of which reflected his batted ball figures in the minors. While Carter drew walks at an elite 16% clip in the majors, he also fanned at an uncharacteristic 32% rate. The culprit wasn't his 10% swinging-strike rate or 13% chase rate, as he was passive to a fault with a swing rate of just 34%, including a 60% swing rate on pitches inside the strike zone. Carter is intriguing for fantasy since he's likely locked down a starting role for the Rangers entering the 2024 season, although he may sometimes sit against lefties. Given his tools and work to date, a 20-30 season with a solid (think .270 or better) average is possible.
Tarik Skubal (SP-DET) was seemingly forgotten by fantasy owners as he began the 2023 campaign on the IL while recovering from flexor tendon surgery on his left (throwing) arm. But the southpaw ultimately put together a stellar season as he recorded a 2.80 ERA, 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, and 2.57 xFIP across 15 starts (80.1 IP) after making his season debut in July. Across the board, it was his strongest showing in the majors to date, as all of those figures were career bests. So were Skubal's 71% contact rate, 27% hard-hit rate, 16.3% swinging-strike rate, 36% chase rate, 81% z-contact%, 0.5 HR/9, and 7% HR/FB. His average fastball velocity came in at nearly 96 mph in 2023, up about a tick and a half from what it averaged in 2020-2022. For the third straight campaign his groundball rate climbed, this time to 52%. A key to his success may have been his career-high 24% usage rate for his change-up, a pitch that made up only about 15% of his offerings in 2020-2022. It is difficult to not be high on Skubal as the 2024 campaign approaches. In 2023, he simply put it all together - more strikeouts, less walks, and less hard contact. He had shown an ability to do all three of those things across his professional career, but hadn't done all three over an extended period. Whether he can do so across a full season remains to be seen, but his stock is definitely up as he enters his age-27 campaign.
Jesus Luzardo (SP-MIA) proved that he can play a full season in 2023 while flashing ace potential as he improved in key areas. The then-25 year-old lefty compiled a 3.63 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and 3.72 xFIP across 32 starts (178.2 IP). In addition to tightening up his control, Luzardo elevated his swinging-strike rate to over 14% as he got batters to chase more often (34%) in 2023 than he did in 2022 (31%) and they missed more often even as they did so (o-contact% down to 51% in 2023 from 54% in 2022). The opposition again posted a well below-average contact rate against him (71%), but they did log a 37.5% hard-hit rate, which was right around the league average. It's worth noting that Luzardo did fade a bit after the All-Star break. In 109.1 IP during the first half of the season, he recorded a 3.29 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 3.47 xFIP while, in the second half, he logged a 4.15 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and 4.12 xFIP across 69.1 IP. Luzardo's performance in the first half of 2023 suggests that he has top-20 fantasy SP talent so long as he can keep the walks and homers in check. Since he did both in the back half of the 2022 season and the front half of the 2023 campaign, he could very well do it over a full season as he will enter the 2024 campaign in his prime at age 26.
Justin Steele (SP-CHC) seemingly came out of nowhere to be a useful arm in fantasy (and real) baseball in 2022 before breaking out in 2023. Across 30 starts, he posted a 3.06 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.32 xFIP in 173.1 IP. In addition to drastically improving his control - his single biggest shortcoming throughout his professional career before the 2023 season - he elevated his swinging-strike rate to almost 12% while opposing hitters posted a 78% contact rate against him. While his 88% z-contact% was a career high, Steele got hitters to chase at a career-high 35% clip. The opposition logged a well below-average hard-it rate (28%) while Steele induced lots of grounders (49%). Encouragingly, Steele showed some improvement as the season progressed. In 91.1 IP during the first half of the campaign, he recorded a 2.56 ERA, 8 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 3.86 xFIP. In 82 IP during the second half, his ERA jumped to 3.62, but otherwise his numbers were the same or better - a nice 11.4 K/9, identical 1.9 BB/9, and a sharp 2.72 xFIP. Steele's fantasy value in 2024 depends on whether he can sustain his improved control while continuing to display the strikeout stuff he showed in the second half of last season. If he does, he's a solid #2 rotation arm for fantasy.
Kyle Harrison (SP-SF) began the 2023 campaign in Triple-A where things were a mixed bag as he posted a 4.66 ERA, 14.4 K/9, 6.6 BB/9, and 4.97 xFIP in 20 starts (65.2 IP). The 21 year-old flashed his potential across seven MLB starts after he got the call to the majors in August, compiling a 4.15 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 5.01 xFIP in 34.2 IP. The highlight of his brief time in the majors was his first home start for the Giants, in which he fired 6.1 shutout IP, scattering 3 hits and 2 walks while racking up 11 punchouts against the Reds in late August. Other than that stellar performance, his body of work was not overly impressive, as he logged an 80% contact rate and 9.5% swinging-strike rate, with the longball being a bit of an issue (2.08 HR/9 and 15% HR/FB). On the other hand, he did limit opposing hitters to a subpar 32% hard-hit rate, and they didn't make a ton of contact on pitches inside the zone (84% z-contact%). A 54% flyball rate might appear concerning on the surface, but the fact that he will make roughly half of his starts at spacious Oracle Park should help to mitigate the damage. Overall, the talent is there and, especially with the SP prospect pool a bit on the shallow side for fantasy in 2024, Harrison should be firmly on fantasy owners' radars. His strikeout ability is elite, and it's very possible that he breaks out in 2024 as he hones his craft as a pitcher.
Grayson Rodriguez (SP-BAL) entered the 2023 campaign as a top-10 prospect after a strong performance in Triple-A as a 22 year-old in which he logged a 2.20 ERA, 12.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 15% swinging-strike rate, and 2.90 xFIP in 69.2 IP. He reached the majors in early 2023 and struggled in his first 10 starts, recording a 7.35 ERA, 11.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, and 3.93 xFIP across 45.1 IP. His control and command were problematic as he issued lots of free passes while surrendering a bunch of homers (2.6 HR/9) as opposing hitters posted a robust 42% hard-hit rate. Unsurprisingly, he was demoted to Triple-A in late May to work on some things. Rodriguez was a different pitcher when he returned after the All-Star break as he logged a 2.58 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 3.68 xFIP across 76.2 IP. He held opposing hitters to a below-average 34% hard-hit rate while his HR/9 plummeted to just 0.4. He induced a lot more grounders (53%, as compared to 39% before the break). His strikeout rate dipped at first but eventually rebounded, as Rodriguez's K/9 sat below 8 in July and August before jumping to 9.9 in September. Overall, it was a solid season for a rookie - a 4.35 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 3.77 xFIP across 22 starts (122 IP). A 12% swinging-strike rate and 76% contact rate were encouraging. To be sure, it was an uneven season, but it was good to see him figure things out down the stretch.
Framber Valdez (SP-HOU) posted arguably his strongest full season in the majors in 2023 as he recorded a 3.45 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 3.39 xFIP, with the strikeout and walk rates his best in a full season of action. The sinkerballer's groundball rate dipped from previous seasons to 54% in 2023, easily a career low as Valdez surrendered a career-high 25% flyball rate. His contact rate slightly dipped to just over 75% while his swinging-strike rate was a career-best 11.5%. It was a bit of a red flag that his hard-hit rate climbed to over 37% after coming in under 31% the previous two seasons. There was, concerningly, significant drop-off in key areas for Valdez as the season progressed. In 111 IP before the All-Star break, he logged a 2.51 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and 3.00 xFIP. In 87 IP after the break, he posted a 4.66 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, and 3.87 xFIP. His groundball rate also dipped from 55% to 53% while his flyball rate climbed from under 24% to nearly 28%; those are still certainly not terrible figures for a sinkerballer, but they do not pair well with an elevated hard-hit rate. Despite flashing fantasy #2 SP potential in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and during the first half of the 2023 campaign, Valdez's track record otherwise indicates that he's a mid-rotation arm. Fantasy owners would therefore do well to not overpay for him on draft day.
Dane Dunning (SP-TEX) put together his best overall season as a major leaguer in 2023, posting a 3.70 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 4.39 xFIP across 172.2 innings of work. A 2.1 WAR was a career best, as were his BB/9 and ERA. The 28 year-old's K/9 was, however, a career low while his xFIP was a career high. It's also worth noting that Dunning spent a chunk of the campaign in the bullpen, as he started 26 games and entered another 9 contests in a relief role. The gap between his ERA (3.70) and xFIP (4.39) suggests that Dunning benefitted from some good fortune in 2023. Indeed, while it's not astronomical, a 78% strand rate was easily a career high (previous was 74% in 2022). For the first time in his career, Dunning posted a sub-10 swinging-strike rate while his contact rate came in at a career-high 79%. To his credit, his hard-hit rate came in at 33% - right about his career average - while opposing hitters posted a below-average 7.5% barrel rate and average exit velocity of just under 89 mph. On the other hand, his liner rate was up slightly to 21% (his career average was 19% entering the season) while they also hit more flyballs (33% in 2023, 29% before this year). Although Dunning appears likely to begin the 2024 season in the back end of the Rangers bullpen, fantasy owners would do well to look beyond his stellar ERA from a season ago to see the red flags indicated above.
Matt Brash (RP-SEA) shut down from throwing at least through the weekend after his right (throwing) arm "didn't feel great" in the wake of a bullpen session on Tuesday. This will certainly be a situation for fantasy owners to monitor as the regular season approaches as Brash has emerged as a useful bullpen arm. In his first full big-league campaign in 2023, the 25 year-old recorded a 3.06 ERA, 13.6 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, and 3.05 xFIP across 70.2 IP in which he picked up 4 saves and 24 holds. Mainly leaning on his 98-mph heater (37% usage) and 89-mph slider (52% usage), Brash posted an elite 16% swinging-strike rate, limited the opposition to a 65% contact rate, and yielded hard contact at just a 31% clip while inducing grounders at a healthy 46% rate. His slider was especially effective as he induced a 49% whiff rate when hitters offered at it. Brash led the majors in holds after the calendar turned to July and will likely begin the 2024 campaign as the club's top setup man, but given Andres Munoz's injury history, he could very well rack up some saves.
