In our continuing series on the Sabermetric analysis that shapes our Player projections in our 2024 Player Projections Draft Advisor. Today we'll take a look at some of the indicators that are defining our 2024 Shortstop projections:
CJ Abrams Abrams finished 2023 with 18HR/64RBI/83RS/.276BA/47 SB. It's encouraging to see his power emerge as the season's progressed, making him a terrific fantasy option thanks to his elite speed as well (47 steals in 51 attempts). If he can be a bit more patient and improve on his 32:118 BB/K ratio next year, the rising star could be even better. As it is, he's already a top-10 fantasy shortstop heading into 2024. - tmaher 2023 BABIP: 0.279(-0.012)| Contact Rate: 80%(1%)| xBA: 0.248(0.003)| xSLG: 0.398(-0.014)| HR Distance: 391ft(-3)| HR Max BBS: 112.5()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 35.7%(5.0%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.9)| Elevation%: 13.5(6.7)| Barrels%: 6.9%(4.8%)| HR/FB%: 11%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(-0.5)| EYE: 0.27(0.17)| ISO: 16.7%(8.9%)
Willy Adames Adames finished 2023 with a batting average of only .217, but the counting stats stayed respectable with 24HR/80RBI/&# RS/5 SB. His numbers were down a bit compared to last year, but its been encouraging to see his walk rate bounce back to around 11%. His power still makes him a valuable fantasy asset at shortstop, but at this point he likely is what he is offensively. - tmaher | There was a career low BABIP of only 259 included in that 2023 lowly BA, but it wasn't all bad luck as his didn't hit the ball as hard last season with only a 36% HardHit% and 87.4 MPH average velo. However at only 28 we can probably discount this to an anomaly season. Expect Bounceback in the BA. 2023 BABIP: 0.259(-0.019)| Contact Rate: 71%(-2%)| xBA: 0.242(0.025)| xSLG: 0.442(0.035)| HR Distance: 400ft(-1)| HR Max BBS: 109.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 36.1%(-7.5%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-1.5)| Elevation%: 18.2(-0.7)| Barrels%: 12.4%(-0.6%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.1)| EYE: 0.43(0.13)| ISO: 19.0%(-3.0%)
Oneil Cruz (SS-PIT) enters the campaign as an exciting option at SS after he hit .233 with 17 homers, 10 steals, 54 RBI, and 45 runs scored across 361 PA in his rookie season, with an above-average 106 wRC+. Cruz's power-speed combo is enticing as he offers 20-20 potential, with more in the power department, especially, possible. His track record of contact issues in the minors manifested in the majors as he fanned at a 35% clip and recorded a contact rate of just 66%. Cruz swung and missed a good bit (14%), with a league-average chase rate (32%) pointing to contact issues inside the zone (below-average 82%) being a problem. There is no denying, however, that Cruz often puts a charge into the ball when he does make contact, as his hard-hit rate per Statcast came in at 46%in 2022. On the other hand, he does have a track record of hitting lots of grounders, even if his 49% in the majors in 2022 was not super high, and so that will be something to watch, as lots of worm-burners means fewer homers. There's a possibility that Cruz tempers the strikeouts, as he did over 247 Triple-A PA before his promotion (down to 23%), but that he nevertheless logged a .232 average despite a reasonable strikeout rate should caution fantasy owners that he'll likely be a liability in the average department; it's up to them if they want to take that risk for a possible 20-20 season. - ahodge2023 BABIP: 0.292(-0.208)| Contact Rate: 71%(25%)| xBA: 0.213(-0.037)| xSLG: 0.366(-0.009)| HR Distance: 425ft(17)| HR Max BBS: 115.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 36.0%(-44.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-11.0)| Elevation%: 10.5(5.9)| Barrels%: 4.0%(-36.0%)| HR/FB%: 8%(-92%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-2.1)| EYE: 0.88(0.88)| ISO: 12.5%(-20.9%)
Tim Anderson Anderson finished hitting .245 with 1 HR, 52 R, 25 RBI, and 13 SB in 123 GP. It was a disappointing season for fantasy managers. He was coming off a .301 AVG with 6 HR, 50 R, 25 RBI, and 13 SB in 79 GP last year. The concerning part of his game was the spike in his already alarming ground ball rate (61% GB). He still hits the ball hard (39% HardHIt%) but doesn't elevate which saps his power and overall production. The future looks bleak for the once-promising shortstop unless he is able to get the ball off the ground. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.323(-0.024)| Contact Rate: 77%(-3%)| xBA: 0.250(0.005)| xSLG: 0.330(0.034)| HR Distance: 429ft(44)| HR Max BBS: 109.6()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 39.1%(-2.1%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.4)| Elevation%: 2.0(-1.3)| Barrels%: 3.0%(-2.9%)| HR/FB%: 2%(-9%)| GB/FB Rate: 3.6(1.0)| EYE: 0.21(-0.04)| ISO: 5.1%(-4.3%)
Orlando Arcia Arcia had a productive 2023 season finishing with 17HR/65RBI/66RS/264BA/1 SB. With a league average Contact Rates, Average Velo, HardHit Rates....you could do worse at SS. 2023 BABIP: 0.301(0.023)| Contact Rate: 77%(3%)| xBA: 0.246(-0.018)| xSLG: 0.398(-0.022)| HR Distance: 409ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 109.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 40.9%(-1.6%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-2.5)| Elevation%: 5.4(-6.3)| Barrels%: 6.9%(-0.6%)| HR/FB%: 15%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.8(0.6)| EYE: 0.38(-0.03)| ISO: 15.6%(-1.6%)
Bobby Witt Jr. Bobby Witt Jr. finished 2023 hitting .276 with 30 HR, 97 R, 96 RBI, and 49 SB. He has made improvements on his impressive rookie season. He lowered his strikeout rate (18% K) which has helped raise his batting average (.276 AVG). Witt Jr. has also hit the ball harder (12% Barrel and 45% HardHIt) which led to more power (29 HR and .216 ISO). He is a legitimate fantasy star who will be a first-rounder once again and deservedly so. He made the necessary adjustments in year two which is super impressive for the youngster. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.295(0.000)| Contact Rate: 79%(2%)| xBA: 0.297(0.021)| xSLG: 0.535(0.040)| HR Distance: 411ft(-5)| HR Max BBS: 113.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 45.4%(6.8%)| Avg Velocity: 91(1.0)| Elevation%: 15.7(-1.1)| Barrels%: 11.5%(2.8%)| HR/FB%: 13%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.1)| EYE: 0.33(0.11)| ISO: 21.8%(4.4%)
Xander Bogaerts Contact rate climbed back into desirable zone last year at 81%, and although we saw a rise in his HRs. to 19 last season, that's about the top as his below average 34% hard contact rate and a pronounced 1.5 GB/FB rate doesn't support more. That said his RBI count of only 58 was deflated by about 15, so there should be some upside there for a hitter that should contribute in all 5 categories. The 19 out of 21 in stolen base attempts was very encouraging, but will be difficult to exceed. 2023 BABIP: 0.319(-0.043)| Contact Rate: 81%(4%)| xBA: 0.252(-0.033)| xSLG: 0.395(-0.045)| HR Distance: 396ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 111.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 34.4%(-5.2%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.5)| Elevation%: 7.9(-2.3)| Barrels%: 6.1%(-0.4%)| HR/FB%: 12%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(0.1)| EYE: 0.51(0.03)| ISO: 15.4%(0.5%)
J.P. Crawford Crawford finally had a serviceable fantasy season in 2023 when he hit a career high 19 HRs and scored 94 Runs. With that came a decent 266 BA and 65 RBIs. There was a nice jump in his Hard Hit rate from 29% to 36%, which makes his 12% HR/FB rate from last year somewhat repeatable, especially if he stays with the elevation in his swing (from 8.9% to 15% last season). No speed offered (2 SB), but in deeper leagues he does offer some late round potential. 2023 BABIP: 0.314(0.039)| Contact Rate: 83%(-4%)| xBA: 0.256(-0.010)| xSLG: 0.379(-0.059)| HR Distance: 386ft(-10)| HR Max BBS: 110.1()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 36.2%(6.5%)| Avg Velocity: 88(3.2)| Elevation%: 15.1(6.2)| Barrels%: 4.8%(2.8%)| HR/FB%: 12%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.4)| EYE: 0.75(-0.10)| ISO: 17.2%(7.9%)
Bo Bichette In 2023 Bo Bichette posted 20 home runs 73 RBI's, 69 run scored, 5 stolen bases, and a 306 batting average. All in all it was a pretty solid fantasy season but a disappointment in comparison to his 2021 season. That said the 25 year old's underlying skill set actually improved in 2023 even though it didn't show in the typical stat categories. His hard hit percentage of 45% was down from the 50% in 2022 and his contact rate of 82% remains above average, so it's easy to expect that his 2024 season is gonna look better than it did last season. However Bichette continues to be a groundball centric hitter with his GB/FB rate increasing last season from 1.58 to 1.74 and similarly his swing elevation has dipped from8.5 to only 6.1. Bichette is a waiting game, and his ceiling is yet to be reached, it's a matter of when and not if. 2023 BABIP: 0.355(0.008)| Contact Rate: 82%(2%)| xBA: 0.308(0.002)| xSLG: 0.496(0.021)| HR Distance: 399ft(11)| HR Max BBS: 113.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 44.9%(-5.4%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.7)| Elevation%: 6.1(-2.4)| Barrels%: 9.6%(0.0%)| HR/FB%: 17%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.7(0.2)| EYE: 0.23(-0.03)| ISO: 16.8%(-1.1%)
Vaughn Grissom Injury marred season limited him to only 80 plate appearances in 2023. Contact rates were still below expectation at only 34% and 107 Max Velo. We'll need to temper the expectations on his potential, and that's likely he'll transition into a 15HR/15SB guy when he starts getting full time ABs. 2023 BABIP: 0.344(-0.006)| Contact Rate: 81%(4%)| xBA: 0.272(-0.008)| xSLG: 0.376(0.029)| HR Distance: 0ft(-408)| HR Max BBS: 107.7()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 34.4%(0.1%)| Avg Velocity: 86(1.6)| Elevation%: 5.1(-3.9)| Barrels%: 6.6%(-0.8%)| HR/FB%: 0%(-15%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.1(0.7)| EYE: 0.13(-0.19)| ISO: 6.7%(-8.2%)
Ha-Seong Kim Kim's breakout season has finally emulated the numbers he was posting on a regular basis in Korea. He doesn't hit the ball particularly hard, but he has a pull-heavy approach with a patient swing, which leads to just enough home runs. The home runs are a nice consolation, though, as his biggest fantasy offering is his speed. With an established role in the San Diego infield, Kim will enter 2024 with a lot of value, both from a positional eligibility perspective and a multiple-category contributor. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.306(0.016)| Contact Rate: 84%(1%)| xBA: 0.243(-0.017)| xSLG: 0.356(-0.042)| HR Distance: 384ft(-14)| HR Max BBS: 108.5()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 26.2%(-6.2%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-0.5)| Elevation%: 13.6(-2.5)| Barrels%: 4.3%(0.1%)| HR/FB%: 10%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.60(0.09)| ISO: 13.8%(0.6%)
Geraldo Perdomo Light hitting prospect with good contact rates and the ability to steal between 20-25 bases. 2023 BABIP: 0.295(0.052)| Contact Rate: 86%(4%)| xBA: 0.201(-0.045)| xSLG: 0.266(-0.093)| HR Distance: 385ft(-10)| HR Max BBS: 104.9()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 19.2%(-5.9%)| Avg Velocity: 86(0.7)| Elevation%: 16.4(4.3)| Barrels%: 0.9%(-1.1%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.6)| EYE: 0.74(0.25)| ISO: 11.3%(4.6%)
Francisco Lindor Lindor finished with a 30/30 season. The 31 stolen bases are a career high and his 31 dingers are his most since 2019. Lindor's quality of contact is as good as it's ever been (44% 95MPH+) and he hasn't really suffered from much regression in plate discipline. However, his pull and flyball rates are both up, which is part of the reason why his batting average was an underwhelming .254. Nonetheless, with 108 runs and 98 RBI's, Lindor is actually outperforming his preseason projections and justifying the 2nd-round pick many fantasy owners invested. If the Mets can get their act together, those numbers could be even better. What's most encouraging is that Lindor continues to play. He also post his second straight season with 600+ at-bats and has only missed meaningful time in one season. The reliable multi-category contributions should not be overlooked in 2024. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.277(-0.024)| Contact Rate: 79%(0%)| xBA: 0.253(-0.001)| xSLG: 0.454(-0.016)| HR Distance: 398ft(4)| HR Max BBS: 112.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 43.9%(2.6%)| Avg Velocity: 91(1.9)| Elevation%: 19.2(5.4)| Barrels%: 10.4%(2.1%)| HR/FB%: 14%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.4)| EYE: 0.48(0.04)| ISO: 21.6%(3.7%)
Matt McLain McLain was on pace to give Corbin Carrol a run for Rookie of the year before an oblique injury cut short his 2023 campaign. The 23 year-old didn't reach the majors as the most touted prospect, but he did nothing but hit with a .290 average, 16 homers, 50 RBI, 65 runs scored, and 14 steals (in 19 attempts) across 312 PA. McLain has fanned some (29%), but his contact rate (75%) isn't bad at all while he's recorded a swinging-strike rate of just 11% and has generated hard contact at a solid 42% rate per Statcast. Even so, don't expect a .385 BABIP his average up going forward. But the combination of decent power and speed should yield a useful combination of homers and steals in 2024. - ahodge 2023 BABIP: 0.385(0.068)| Contact Rate: 75%(75%)| xBA: 0.255(-0.035)| xSLG: 0.435(-0.072)| HR Distance: 396ft(396)| HR Max BBS: 109.9()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 42.0%(42.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(89.3)| Elevation%: 13.8(13.8)| Barrels%: 10.8%(10.8%)| HR/FB%: 17%(17%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.27(-0.11)| ISO: 21.6%(21.6%)
Carlos Correa On the year, Correa hit .230 with 18 HR, 60 R, 65 RBI, and 0 SB. Correa was a disappointment from both a fantasy and real-life perspective. He isn't providing any stolen bases so he needs to hit for average to be a four-category contributor and that hasn't been the case. He has been hurt by a .277 BABIP when his career BABIP is .312. His underlying skills still look good (10% BB, 23% K, 10% Barrels, and 46% HardHIt) which makes him an interesting buy-low option in 2024. He isn't even in the top 30 for dollars earned at the position this year. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.272(-0.067)| Contact Rate: 77%(-2%)| xBA: 0.250(0.020)| xSLG: 0.418(0.019)| HR Distance: 399ft(-9)| HR Max BBS: 114.2()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 45.9%(1.2%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.5)| Elevation%: 10.6(-1.0)| Barrels%: 9.6%(-1.8%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.2)| EYE: 0.45(-0.05)| ISO: 16.9%(-0.7%)
Ezequiel Tovar Overall, in 2023, Tovar's slashed a .253/.287/.408 with 15 homers, 73 RBI, and 11 stolen bases. Like many Rockies hitters, the youngster has drastic home/road splits. He is hitting .289 at home and .232 on the road. Having the boost of Coors Field will make Tovar an intriguing fantasy prospect in 2024, however, he will have to improve his approach at the plate before he can be trusted. His current 45.6% O-Swing% and 17.0 SwStr% have led to a hefty 26.5% K% and lowly 4.1% BB%. - dnachtigal 2023 BABIP: 0.328(0.067)| Contact Rate: 71%(2%)| xBA: 0.247(-0.006)| xSLG: 0.383(-0.025)| HR Distance: 407ft(2)| HR Max BBS: 109.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 35.7%(2.4%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.6)| Elevation%: 12.6(4.1)| Barrels%: 8.1%(-4.4%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.2)| EYE: 0.15(-0.07)| ISO: 15.5%(3.4%)
Liover Peguero Peguero has the ability to be a power/speed threat, as he has already collected 18 HR's and 23 SB's in 98 games across 3 levels last season and he stole 28 bases in each of his previous two MiLB seasons. Finished with a .230 BA with the Pirates, which came with a 31.5% K%. Peguero's power and speed combo can give him fantasy value assuming he continues to play nearly every day. - mgreenfeld |Solid Hard Hit rates which came in at around league average, which isn't bad for a 22 YO, but he'll need to improve on the 73% contact rate to see regular time. Graded as a 45+ prospect with 60/60 speed and 40/50 game power. 2023 BABIP: 0.320(0.020)| Contact Rate: 73%(73%)| xBA: 0.225(-0.012)| xSLG: 0.328(-0.046)| HR Distance: 395ft(395)| HR Max BBS: 110.2()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 39.6%(39.6%)| Avg Velocity: 89(89.3)| Elevation%: 4.1(4.1)| Barrels%: 5.2%(5.2%)| HR/FB%: 18%(18%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.8(1.8)| EYE: 0.16(-0.12)| ISO: 13.6%(13.6%)
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Jeremy Peña Pena made some strides in the weakest parts of his game (plate discipline and contact ability), but was much less efficient in terms of base stealing and 2022's HR power hasn't been very evident this season, mostly due to a huge jump in GB rate (from 42.4% to a whopping 55.6%). The raw power still appears to be above average (max EV just over 111), but his average EV stubbornly remains below average (88), and his overaggressive nature at the plate is certainly partly to blame there. On the whole he is still a starting MI in standard formats, and the ceiling here is very impressive, but the lack of progress in his sophomore season was definitely disappointing, and he isn't THAT young (26). He won't be a top-10 choice for me at the position in 2024, but he'll likely squeeze into the top-15. - sdombroske 2023 BABIP: 0.323(0.025)| Contact Rate: 74%(2%)| xBA: 0.254(-0.009)| xSLG: 0.361(-0.020)| HR Distance: 388ft(-8)| HR Max BBS: 111.6()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 35.1%(-1.6%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.1)| Elevation%: 5.5(-3.2)| Barrels%: 4.0%(-5.7%)| HR/FB%: 8%(-9%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.0(0.6)| EYE: 0.33(0.17)| ISO: 11.8%(-5.5%)
Corey Seager Seager finished his breakout campaign with 33 HRs, 88 Rs, and 96 RBI. He raised his batting average to .327 and would have very much been in the running for AL MVP if not for a guy who hits home runs and also pitches. Seager has always displayed an elite quality of contact while also limiting strikeouts, but he has taken his Statcast prowess to another level this year, flashing a 93.3 mile-per-hour average exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, he hasn't suffered from bad BABIP luck like last year when his batting average on balls in play was inexplicably .242. He really has been the best overall hitter in the American League this season and will enter the 2024 season as a four-category monster. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.340(0.098)| Contact Rate: 77%(2%)| xBA: 0.312(-0.015)| xSLG: 0.608(-0.015)| HR Distance: 407ft(3)| HR Max BBS: 114.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 53.2%(7.7%)| Avg Velocity: 93(2.2)| Elevation%: 13.0(-0.6)| Barrels%: 15.2%(4.7%)| HR/FB%: 21%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.56(0.00)| ISO: 29.6%(8.6%)
Trevor Story Since starting his season in August after elbow surgery, Story struggled to get above the Mendoza Line and only hit 3 homers in 168 PAs. He had hit 4 homers in 48 PAs in his minor league rehab prior to joining the Red Sox. Story's 14.8% SwStr% is a career high and his 32% K% is his highest since his sophomore campaign in 2017. His 5.4% BB% is far his worst in his MLB career. Story has been impacted by horrible luck on the road, with a .188 BABIP and .122 AVG . At Fenway Park, Story wasn't horrible, with a .274/.312/.425 slash line. If he can recover plate discipline and have more reasonable luck on the road in 2024 Story can rebound. - paul00 2023 BABIP: 0.290(-0.019)| Contact Rate: 71%(-1%)| xBA: 0.208(0.005)| xSLG: 0.351(0.035)| HR Distance: 398ft(7)| HR Max BBS: 110.4()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 39.8%(-0.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.4)| Elevation%: 15.5(-2.3)| Barrels%: 9.7%(-1.6%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.2)| EYE: 0.16(-0.10)| ISO: 11.4%(-8.2%)
Dansby Swanson Swanson finished 2023 hitting .244 with 22 HR, 81 R, 80 RBI, and 9 SB in 147 GP. He took a step back this year across the board, but that was projected. His average is down because of a lower BABIP (.297). His counting stats have taken a hit which is to be expected moving from the loaded Braves lineup to the Cubs. He still has strong plate skills (10% BB and 24% K) and hits the ball hard (13% Barrels and 40% HardHIt). Swanson is a mid-tier shortstop and there is nothing wrong with that but it is below what his perceived value was coming into the year. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.297(-0.051)| Contact Rate: 73%(1%)| xBA: 0.254(0.010)| xSLG: 0.455(0.039)| HR Distance: 393ft(-14)| HR Max BBS: 109.1()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 39.5%(-6.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.9)| Elevation%: 13.0(-2.7)| Barrels%: 10.9%(0.1%)| HR/FB%: 15%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.3)| EYE: 0.43(0.16)| ISO: 17.2%(0.2%)
Elly De La Cruz The 21-year-old rookie quickly tailed off after his hot start as the league adjusted to him, exploiting his huge swing-and-miss tendencies (34.0 K%). He absolutely needs to bring that down if he wants to be a successful big leaguer going forward, but at least he got to show off his impressive tools this year (13 homers, 35 steals). The future is bright for him if he can make the necessary adjustments, but his power and speed alone make him an attractive fantasy option. - tmaher | What stood out about De La Cruz last year was the uber elite 119.2 Max Velo off his bat, which is a full 11 MPH higher than the league average. This is second level stuff as was his 46% HardHit% and 91.2 average VELO...especially for a rookie. Yes the hole in his game right now is the 34% K%, and the heavy 2.5 GB|FB rate limited his HR potential, but will keep his BA afloat as he transitions. 2023 BABIP: 0.336(0.014)| Contact Rate: 73%(73%)| xBA: 0.238(0.003)| xSLG: 0.386(-0.024)| HR Distance: 420ft(420)| HR Max BBS: 119.2()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 45.9%(45.9%)| Avg Velocity: 91(91.2)| Elevation%: 3.6(3.6)| Barrels%: 8.5%(8.5%)| HR/FB%: 25%(25%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.5(2.5)| EYE: 0.24(-0.02)| ISO: 17.5%(17.5%)
Anthony Volpe The 22-year-old is ended his rookie year on a down note with a poor September, batting just .163 with 31 strikeouts in 26 games. This season has been a mixed bag for the rookie shortstop from a fantasy perspective, as he's provided value with his 21 homers and 24 steals, but his poor rate stats have limited his overall value. He'll need to cut down on the whiffs (27.8 K%) next year if he wants to improve at the dish, but his power and speed still make him a decent fantasy option at a premium position heading into 2024. - tmaher | A closer look shows that Volpe demonstrated excellent Hard Hit rates (42.7 %) and was smitten with bad luck on his BABIP (259). Among other things expect his BA to climb 20-30 points in 2024, as well as +10 in the RS and RBI categories. 2023 BABIP: 0.259(-0.013)| Contact Rate: 73%(73%)| xBA: 0.229(0.020)| xSLG: 0.391(0.008)| HR Distance: 383ft(383)| HR Max BBS: 108.7()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 42.7%(42.7%)| Avg Velocity: 89(88.7)| Elevation%: 14.2(14.2)| Barrels%: 9.0%(9.0%)| HR/FB%: 15%(15%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(1.1)| EYE: 0.31(-0.06)| ISO: 17.4%(17.4%)
Javier Báez The 30-year-old shortstop has been a disaster since signing with Detroit prior to the 2022 season. However, at least he flashed a little power in 2022. Last year he only finished with nine home runs and a .100 ISO. His fantasy value has gone from uber-intriguing during his best seasons in Chicago to almost unrosterable. What's ironic is the thing that always held him back from becoming elite was atrocious plate discipline, and he has actually improved that this year, but his bat-to-ball power is considerably down and he is hitting more ground balls than ever. He just isn't a productive player, and there really isn't sufficient evidence to believe that's going to change. There are too many good shortstops to even consider Baez for fantasy rosters next year. - bkamerman 2023 BABIP: 0.274(-0.018)| Contact Rate: 69%(3%)| xBA: 0.238(0.016)| xSLG: 0.358(0.033)| HR Distance: 396ft(3)| HR Max BBS: 113.1()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 38.8%(0.8%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.1)| Elevation%: 9.3(-0.3)| Barrels%: 5.1%(-2.9%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.1)| EYE: 0.19(0.01)| ISO: 10.4%(-5.1%)
Masyn Winn The Cardinals promoted Masyn Winn late last season. The 21-year-old has been pounding on the MLB door of late, hitting 10 of his 18 HRs in the last calendar month, adding some intrigue to a SS prospect who was previously kind of a defense-first prospect with some bat-to-ball skills. So, let's investigate this power surge. Masyn is 5-11/180. That doesn't disqualify him from a discussion of his power tools and he's a 50 FV on Raw (just 40 on Game). But his quality of contact from AAA this year, a 32% HardHit%, an 87.9 EV, and a 110.1 maxEV doesn't exactly qualify him as a power prospect either. As a result, I am noting his 18 HRs in 445 AAA ABs, with some skepticism. Still ...He hit them. And he hit 11 in 345 ABs in AA last year. You can't ignore the facts. Otherwise, he's a very good shortstop with a plus arm. He'll stick there. His 16.7% K rate in his first tour of AAA at 20/21 with a 7.6% SwStr% tells you how good his bat skills are. And he's got speed. His SB numbers slipped this year, and again I am skeptical about his speed game in the majors, but a long-term 15/15 projection with a positive BA contribution does not seem like much of a reach in terms of his long-term projection with enough playing time. Long-Term Fantasy Grade - B - LBlasi | 2023 BABIP: 0.196(-0.091)| Contact Rate: 82%(82%)| xBA: 0.214(0.042)| xSLG: 0.282(0.044)| HR Distance: 372ft(372)| HR Max BBS: 103.9()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 35.6%(35.6%)| Avg Velocity: 86(86.0)| Elevation%: 12.8(12.8)| Barrels%: 2.0%(2.0%)| HR/FB%: 5%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(1.2)| EYE: 0.38(0.00)| ISO: 6.6%(6.6%)
Tommy Edman Tommy Edman benefits fantasy owners by having 2B, SS, and OF eligibility. Edman finished 2023 hitting .248 with 13 HR, 69 R, 47 RBI, and 27 SB in 137 GP. He has good plate skills (7% BB and 16% K) and makes the most of his power (.15 ISO). He is a good glue guy in real-life and in fantasy because he provides value across the board and is eligible at multiple spots. - pdouble 2023 BABIP: 0.275(-0.033)| Contact Rate: 85%(4%)| xBA: 0.260(0.012)| xSLG: 0.383(-0.016)| HR Distance: 391ft(-2)| HR Max BBS: 111.2()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 38.6%(0.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.5)| Elevation%: 7.5(-1.2)| Barrels%: 5.0%(-1.2%)| HR/FB%: 10%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.42(0.01)| ISO: 15.0%(1.5%)
Noelvi Marte Top 25 Prospect hitting prospect, is a nice combination of power and speed with decent contact rates. In a limited 123 plates appearances for the Reds last season Marte posted a below league average 20% K% and a well above average 46% HardHit%. On top of that he posted a max velo of 115.6 (elite). In the steals department he was 6 for 8 last season, which brings hope that he'll end up somewhere in the mid teens with regular playing time in 2024. As far as power, the hard contact is going to translate into a good average as he's a ground ball hitter right now (2:1), which will limit the upside in HRs this season. There's enough to see him as an everyday player in 2024. 2023 BABIP: 0.384(0.068)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| xBA: 0.296(-0.020)| xSLG: 0.431(-0.025)| HR Distance: 382ft(382)| HR Max BBS: 115.6()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 46.1%(46.1%)| Avg Velocity: 91(91.3)| Elevation%: 1.9(1.9)| Barrels%: 7.9%(7.9%)| HR/FB%: 14%(14%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.1(2.1)| EYE: 0.32(-0.08)| ISO: 14.0%(14.0%)
Marco Luciano Top 25 Prospect Marco Luciano could break with the club to open 2024. Luciano has big time power as evidenced by his 25 HRs in less than 475 ABs across 3 levels last season. In his limited MLB action last season he registered a 55% HardHit% and 93 MPH avg VELO across 45 PAs. The downside is that his contact rate has decreased as he's moved across different levels. In AAA last season he registered a non attractive 36% K%....and that's not going to play on the MLB level. Adjustments will need to be shown this spring. 2023 BABIP: 0.409(0.112)| Contact Rate: 59%(59%)| xBA: 0.213(-0.018)| xSLG: 0.292(-0.016)| HR Distance: 0ft(0)| HR Max BBS: 111.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 54.6%(54.6%)| Avg Velocity: 93(93.0)| Elevation%: -5.1(-5.1)| Barrels%: 0.0%(0.0%)| HR/FB%: 0%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.4(2.4)| EYE: 0.35(0.05)| ISO: 7.7%(7.7%)
Trea Turner Turner finished 2023 hitting 266/459/778 while ranking as the 8th most valuable hitter in MLB. He slipped to the 17th pick overall in the recent Tout mock draft, and it's easy to see why: despite this two-month heater and season-long numbers that look respectable now, there still appears to be some steady deterioration over the past two years from his impressive peak, particularly in strike zone judgment (chase rates from '20-'23: 29, 31, 36, 38). He's only 30, and there was likely some pressing early-on given his massive new contract, so I'm inclined to weight the late-season performance more than the first few months of struggles. I like him again in '24 as a late 1st/early 2nd round selection in standard formats despite my mild concern over his increased aggression at the plate. - sdombroske | 2023 BABIP: 0.310(-0.032)| Contact Rate: 72%(-3%)| xBA: 0.266(0.000)| xSLG: 0.442(-0.017)| HR Distance: 397ft(-5)| HR Max BBS: 110.8()| HardHit 95MPH+%: 42.2%(0.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.0)| Elevation%: 13.0(2.8)| Barrels%: 8.4%(0.8%)| HR/FB%: 13%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.2)| EYE: 0.30(-0.04)| ISO: 19.2%(2.4%)
