Bryson Stott-Phillies-2B
Bryson Stott was 3-7 with an HR (1), 1 R, and 2 RBI in the Phillies win against the Reds. Stott is off to a hot start to the year. He is hitting .380 with 1 HR, 4 R, 6 RBI, and 3 SB. He has been ultra-aggressive to start the year (1% BB and 24% K) which has worked mainly due to a .491 BABIP. The concern going forward is that his 42% O-swing is going to lead to more strikeouts and a lower batting average. Stott is also not hitting the ball hard (2% Barrels) which makes an increase in power unlikely. Ride the hot streak but there isn't much to support a full-blown breakout like his overall line would suggest.
Kyle Wright-Braves-SP
Kyle Wright went 5.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 3 BB, and 6 K's against the Royals. Wright made his season debut on Tuesday (3 IP, 4 ER, 4 BB, and 3 K). He missed most of Spring Training due to a shoulder injury and showed lower velocity in his first start. He was even lower today on his fastball (92.6) which is down -2.5mph from last year. It will be worth watching his fastball velocity because that was one of the main components of his breakout 2022. Wright is inevitably going to be less valuable this year because most of his fantasy value came from his 21 W. He is also likely to see regression in his ratio stats (3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP). However, if his velocity returns and he pitches to his 2022 SIERA (3.48) fantasy owners should rejoice.
Jarred Kelenic-Mariners-OF
Jarred Kelenic was 1-2 with 1 BB, 1 RBI, and 1 SB against the Rockies. Kelenic is now hitting .362 with 4 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI, and 3 SB. He has looked like a totally different player to start the year. However, he is still swinging and missing a lot (29% K) and has been helped out by a .464 BABIP. The good news is that he is not chasing out of the zone (28% O-swing) and has been hitting the ball extremely hard (23% Barrels and 60% Hardhit). Kelenic has bought himself a longer leash of regular playing time. The most likely scenario at this point is that he provides power and speed but with a low batting average which plays in today's game.
Shane Bieber-Guardians-SP
Shane Bieber went 6 IP and gave up 3 ER on 9 H, 1 BB, and 4 K's against the Nationals. Bieber has been excellent to start the year (2.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) but there are major warning signs. The first is that his velocity has dropped all the way to 90.8 mph after sitting 93-94 mph to begin his career. This would also be the third season in a row that he has had lower velocity which is a bad trend for pitchers. The other flashing warning sign is a drastic drop in strikeouts (19% K) from 2022. It is just four starts and the surface stats look good but Bieber is going to have a hard time maintaining this level of success without the ability to miss bats. He is going to have a hard time missing bats without more velocity despite having excellent control/command. A slimmer of hope is that he gets the Marlins at home next time out which is a great matchup.
Lane Thomas-Nationals-OF
Lane Thomas was 2-4 with 1 R and 2 RBI against the Guardians. Thomas is hitting .323 with 0 HR, 8 R, 7 RBI, and 2 SB. Despite the strong start at the plate, he has been moved down in the order (7th) after starting the year in the leadoff spot. He was back in the leadoff spot in this one but only because OF Alex Call was not in the lineup. This is a hit to his season-long value because he is going to see fewer counting stats especially given how weak the Nationals lineup is. His underlying skills also point towards regression (.426 BABIP, 2% Barrel, and 28% Hardhit). Thomas showed us last year (.241 AVG with 17 HR/8 SB) that he can provide value in deeper mixed league formats. It is hard to play him outside of 15-team leagues because of his average and the fact that he isn't elite in home runs or stolen bases.
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