Anthony Volpe (SS/2B - NYY) - The Yankees appear set in the middle infield right now with 5 players for 4 spots, but the underwhelming performances of IKF and Donaldson last season may leave a small opening for Anthony Volpe this spring. The 21 year old has started the spring hot, going 4-11 with a 2B, HR, and 2 SB in his first 4 games. After just 99 mildly disappointing PAs at AAA last year, it would be no surprise to see him open up the year back at that level, but I do expect that he will play the majority of this year with NY, and with a round 30+ ADP he is a worthwhile late-game gamble. The batting averages that he's posted recently are more indicative of his flyball-heavy approach than of contact issues, and the 21 HR and 50 SB between AA and AAA illustrate the power/speed potential that he offers. The upside here is worth it for me to want to gamble on more playing time than expected.
Kodai Senga (SP - NYM) - I definitely want to target upside with my SPs in spots 4-7, and Kodai Senga has loads of that. He has front-of-the-rotation stuff, with a great splitter and velocity in the 98-100 range with his 4-seamer. The control may be a bit suspect, but there's clear top-25 SP upside here, and with an ADP of SP53, he is definitely someone that I am targeting here in the early going.
Jarren Duran (OF - BOS) - Duran doubled, walked twice, and stole a base on Thursday against the Phillies, keeping his spring perfect with 3 XBH and those 2 walks in 5 trips to the plate. The re-tooled swing appears to have him getting to the ball much quicker than in the past few seasons, giving hope that he can fulfill the promise that he's shown at AAA the past two years. The OF does look pretty crowded for the Sox right now, but aside from Verdugo there isn't really a CF on the roster, so there is opportunity here for Duran. He's certainly a name to keep in mind for late-game drafting as the spring moves along.
Jose Abreu (1B - HOU) - I like gambling on Jose Abreu this spring....he's a notoriously poor cold-weather player, and predictably April and May have been his worst months by far. His career second half line of 303/372/513 might be closer to what we can expect for a full season playing in the much friendlier confines of Houston (at least weather-wise). Throw in the improved lineup, and I am very optimistic for Abreu this season, even at age 36.
Brandon Belt (1B - TOR) - Hear me out on this one: Brandon Belt is absolutely going to be a deep-league option for me this season if he appears healthy the last 3 weeks of spring (he's scheduled to make his debut for the Jays in about a week). He's averaged 25 HR a season outside of SF over his career, he's a massive flyball hitter, and he's moving to what is likely going to be the 2nd-best HR park in the majors after the recent renovations. He was also injured most of last season, which is depressing his value tremedously....he's 1B40 by ADP right now. A 30 HR season wouldn't shock me in the slightest, and he's going to be in a very dangerous lineup this year. Very undervalued to me.
Christian Yelich (OF - MIL) - Yelich homered and singled on Thursday, fueling hope that he may be finally healthy again for the first time since the COVID-shortened season of 2020. While the power numbers have declined the past two years with the back issues, the hard hit rate and exit velocity remain strong, and he began running a bit more again last year with 19 steals in just 22 attempts. A 20/20 season is certainly in the reasonable range of outcomes, and particularly in OBP-based formats, I believe that Yelich remains a top-15 option in the OF. At a current ADP of OF29, that represents a ton of value in my opinion.
Alex Cobb (SP -SF) - I'm not sure there's a pitcher I'm higher on versus consensus than Cobb. Currently SP64 via ADP, I have Cobb comfortably inside the top 50 at the position. He was extremely unfortunate last season with a 68% strand rate and a BABIP of .336, but his peripherals were fantastic. The control progressed from below average to at least average, the K rate was solidly average, but the GB rate of 61.5% is elite. His CSW (called plus swinging strike rate) has been 30 and 29.4% the past two seasons, which gives that K rate some upside.....something that I feel is justified given the 2 mph increase in his velo last season. I just see so much upside here, even if you just use him as a home streamer (home ERA of 2.68 in 2022).
Clarke Schmidt (SP - NYY) - Josh touched on Schmidt's new cutter last week, and in his first spring action with it he tossed 2 perfect innings with 5 K's, looking (as you'd expect from that line) dominant. Expectations are that Domingo German will take Frankie Montas's 5th rotation spot and that Schmidt will be the long man again, but it isn't out of the question that the two will switch roles depending on spring performance. Nothing to act on here yet, but certainly a situation that merits watching over the next few weeks.
Ryan McMahon (3B/2B - COL) - You don't see a lot of Rockie hitters that you could call undervalued, but I feel like that describes McMahon perfectly coming into 2023. After a very disappointing first 100 games of 2022, McMahon his 12 HR in his last 52 games to finish the year with 20. Surprisingly for a hitter that plays in Coors, he actually was shorted a bit according to xAVG and xSLG, and the exit velo of 91.7 and LD rate of 22.7%, when combined with a much improved contact rate (career-high 75%) seem like a grouping that should offer better than a .246 AVG. He'll draw a walk as well, and should have eligibility at both 2B and 3B. I love his upside....I really feel like last year was his floor to boot. We have him ranked 10th among 3B, and with a current ADP of 3B18, I feel like there's lots of value here.
Shane Bieber (SP - CLE) - Bieber seems to be a victim of the bias against (relative) soft tossers right now, as our 8th ranked SP is currently being drafted 14 among SP, nearly 3 rounds later than we project. The velocity has been trending down, which is a mild concern, but as a pitcher that relies much more on his offspeed offerings than his fastball it's less of a concern for me than it would be for many SPs. The control remains excellent, and the low FB rate minimizes the impact of his average quality of contact stats. I still feel like Bieber is a low-end SP1 in standard formats, albeit one with a slightly lower ceiling than some of those being drafted around him.
Jon Gray (SP - TEX) - There's been some talk about Gray's velocity being down this spring, but after an interview with him where he stated he has been throwing exclusively from the stretch at "about 90%", I've decided I'm not going to worry about just yet. Gray's velocity has varied noticeably during his career, and like with most pitchers there's a very clear direct relationship between his success and his velocity. Getting out of Coors had the positive impact many expected last season, as Gray was dominant in June and July with a 2.65 ERA. An oblique injury in August derailed the remainder of his season, but he finished with an ERA under 4.00 and definitely looks the part of a 4th starter for me. I feel like he should be going ahead of at least 8-10 of the guys in front of him right now.
Gleyber Torres (2B/SS - NYY) - 2100 career ABs, and Gleyber Torres is still just 26 years of age. With eligibility at 2B and SS, coming off a career high in exit velo at 90.4 mph, and with double figures in SBs in each of the past 2 years, Torres seems rather undervalued this spring. We have ranked 6th among 2B as a late-6th round selection, and he's currently going almost 3 rounds later as 2B8. Definitely some value there.
Jarred Kelenic (OF - SEA) - Kelenic hit his 3rd HR of the spring on Wednesday, lending us all some more hope that the potential will finally be realized for the 23 year old. There's definitely some post-hype prospect fatigue here for a guy with a likely starting spot in the Seattle OF and 33 HR and 18 SB in 137 G in the high minors. I think he's an easy draft pick after the first 50 OF are taken, and his current ADP is OF72....you should be able to get him if you want, and what other player in that range has this kind of upside?
Bryan De La Cruz (OF - MIA) - I feel compelled to remind everyone of Bryan De La Cruz's September of 2022, where he responded to a brief demotion to AAA with a 388/419/718 performance upon his return to Miami, bashing 6 homers with 22 RBI in 25 games. He posted a 48% hard contact rate and a 30% LD rate in the 2nd half (which included a miserable August), and he's still just 26. I know that Miami lineup isn't great, but I find it hard to believe that the guy I watched all of last September isn't a top-60 OF, or even a top-50 one. His current ADP is OF67, a price I absolutely want in on.
Esteury Ruiz (OF - OAK) - This falls very much into the high risk category, as I don't know that we'll need to be scraping the bottom of the barrel for cheap SBs this season, but Esteury Ruiz is very likely to get a lot of playing time in CF for the A's, and he can absolutely fly. He stole 86 bases in 131 games between 5 stops last year, and although the hard contact% of 10 is amazingly poor, he does appear to have 15-20 HR pop at his peak. He's just 24 and has fairly good contact chops.....there's a very good ceiling here to go along with a bottomless floor. Probably deep-league only right now, but everyone should be paying attention.
