Mid to Late Round Players who will outperform their ADP

Lets roll through 1 player at each position that we believe will outperform their ADP!

C Joey Bart SF The 25 year-old backstop finished with a .215 average to go with 11 dingers, 25 RBI, 34 runs scored, and a pair of steals across 291 plate appearances, with an above-average wRC+ of 100. The strikeout were a major problem for Bart last season, as his strikeout rate finished at 38.5%. The good news is that after striking out at a terrible 44% during the first half of the season (140 PA), that figure has been a more palatable 34% since the break. Otherwise, Bart has made hard contact at a healthy 43% clip (per Statcast) while ripping lots of liners (21%) and lofting a solid 35% flyballs. He could be a solid option at C next season should he continue to keep the strikeouts in check. - ahodge 2022 BABIP: 0.326(-0.174)| Contact Rate: 64%(-3%)| xBA: 0.210(-0.005)| xSLG: 0.370(0.006)| HR Distance: 403ft(403)| HR Max BBS: 114.3()| HardHit%: 43.0%(-7.0%)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.2)| Elevation%: 16.3(-9.4)| Barrels%: 10.1%(10.1%)| HR/FB%: 21%(21%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.2)| EYE: 0.23(0.23)| ISO: 14.9%(14.9%) Current ADP: 26.12 FDP 23.12

1B Ryan Mountcastle BAL Chalk up Mountcastle's 2022 season as an anomaly. On the surface mountcastle dropped from 33 home runs in 2022 to only 22 and 2023, Yet his hard hit percentage increased from 40% to 46% and his average VELO on balls in play went from 89 to 91 he improved his contact rate from 70% to 73% and his barrels percentage increased from 11.8 to 15%. Granted the Orioles revised ballpark dimensions had an impact, but the 13% home run of flyball rate is likely to increase back up to 19% in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.303(0.006)| Contact Rate: 73%(2%)| xBA: 0.277(0.027)| xSLG: 0.509(0.086)| HR Distance: 407ft(11)| HR Max BBS: 112.0()| HardHit%: 46.3%(6.6%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.2)| Elevation%: 15.9(-0.4)| Barrels%: 15.0%(3.2%)| HR/FB%: 13%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.1)| EYE: 0.28(0.03)| ISO: 17.3%(-5.9%) Current ADP: 13.10 FDP 10.04

2B Brandon Lowe TB: Fantasy owners were greatly disappointed with Brandon Lowe in 2022 after hitting 39 home runs and driving in 99 RBI's in 2021 Brandon followed up with only eight home runs and 25 RBI's in 266 plate appearances in 2023. The reason for the lack of playing time and production drop was a stress reaction injury in his lower back. Obviously this is something to keep an eye on this spring as low is a bounce back candidate if his back is healthy. 2022 BABIP: 0.263(-0.017)| Contact Rate: 67%(-2%)| xBA: 0.237(0.016)| xSLG: 0.401(0.018)| HR Distance: 404ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 112.2()| HardHit%: 38.9%(-4.2%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.1)| Elevation%: 16.6(-0.3)| Barrels%: 10.3%(-3.7%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-13%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.1)| EYE: 0.44(0.03)| ISO: 16.2%(-11.4%) Current ADP: 15.05 FDP 8.06

SS Gleyber Torres NYY Torres put together a solid season in 2022 with 24 home runs 76 RB I73 runs scored and a 257 batting average this to go along with ten stolen bases and 15 attempts what I really like about Torres is that his power numbers were underrepresented with only a 13% home runner flyball rate which does not correspond with a 45% hard hit rate and 90.4 mph on balls hit in play. The HR/FB rate could have easily been 16 to 17% which could mean a jump in home runs in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.295(-0.019)| Contact Rate: 75%(-1%)| xBA: 0.244(-0.013)| xSLG: 0.441(-0.010)| HR Distance: 383ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 45.3%(9.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(3.3)| Elevation%: 17.5(3.3)| Barrels%: 10.7%(2.9%)| HR/FB%: 13%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.4)| EYE: 0.30(-0.18)| ISO: 19.4%(8.7%) Current ADP: 9.11 FDP 7.09

3B Alec Bohm PHI Here's what we said about Bohm heading into 2022: Bohm is the poster boy for someone that should be elevating his swing. His 50% 95 MPH+% screams potential, but his 5.6% elevation translates to 2.3 GB to every 1 flyball....which limits his power numbers. Will make a big jump when he starts lifting the baseball. Well that jump didn't start to materialize until the 2nd half of 2022 , when he hit 9 HRs drove in 45 RBIs and hit .294....all attributable to his flyball rate jumping from 23% in 2021 to 33% in 2022. The contact rate jump to 85% in the 2nd half was also a big part of his transformation. The impressive contact rate and HardHit% combo leads us to believe that we'll see a breakout season for Bohm in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.319(-0.008)| Contact Rate: 81%(5%)| xBA: 0.290(0.010)| xSLG: 0.436(0.038)| HR Distance: 393ft(7)| HR Max BBS: 110.8()| HardHit%: 43.0%(-6.5%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.8)| Elevation%: 10.4(4.8)| Barrels%: 6.8%(0.2%)| HR/FB%: 9%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(-0.8)| EYE: 0.28(0.00)| ISO: 11.8%(2.3%) Current ADP: 16.11 FDP 8.11

OF Tyler O'Neill STL had a breakout season in 2021 when he posted a 34 HR/80 RBI/89 RS/15 SB/ .286 line in 2021....only to follow that up with a disappointing 14HR/58 RBI/%6 RS/228 BA in 2022. Granted there were 150 less PAs, but his rate stats weren't even close. A closer look shows that although the underlying quality of contact regressed in 2022, the indicators are still above average with a 43% HardHit%, 11.3% Barrels%, and 90 MPH average velo. O'Neil has Bounceback potential written all over him. 2022 BABIP: 0.277(-0.089)| Contact Rate: 72%(5%)| xBA: 0.240(0.012)| xSLG: 0.423(0.031)| HR Distance: 405ft(-9)| HR Max BBS: 110.3()| HardHit%: 43.3%(-8.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-3.2)| Elevation%: 13.6(-4.2)| Barrels%: 11.3%(-6.6%)| HR/FB%: 16%(-11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.2)| EYE: 0.37(0.14)| ISO: 16.4%(-11.0%) Current ADP: 9.07 FDP 7.08

SP Drew Rasmussen TB Rasmussen enjoyed a breakout season as a starter, as he finished with a 2.84 ERA, 7.7 K/9, and a 1.9 BB/9 across 28 starts (146 IP). His 3.56 xFIP does point to a .262 BABIP, 9% HR/FB, and 76% strand rate collectively suppressing his ERA, but Rasmussen has simply demonstrated strong control, missed some bats (12%.8 swinging-strike rate), and kept the hard contact to a league-average 39% rate. - ahodge | There is something to be said when a pitcher can elevate above the averages in SwStr%, BB/9, and GB%...it's a formula for success. 2022 BABIP: 0.262(0.007)| SwStr%: 12%(1%)| Avg FB: 95.5(-1.6)| FB/Chg Split: 95.5(0.0)| HR Distance: 397ft(-3)| Launch Angle: 10.1| Strand%: 0.76(0.03)| HardHit%: 39.2(-11.0)| 95MPH+%: 39.2(-11.0)| Avg Velocity: 89(-2.5)| Elevation%: 10.1(1.3)| Barrels%: 6.6(0.9)| HR/FB%: 9%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.47(-0.01)| xFIP: 3.56(0.72)| xSLG: 0.375(0.029) Current ADP: 16.02 FDP 15.01

RP Jhoan Duran MIN Jhoan posted a stellar 1.85 ERA and .97 WHIP in his first MLB season in 2022. The Twins did not overwhelm Duran by using him selectively in 9th innning siutations. That said they should not desitate to use him regualrly in the closers role in 2023. With an 18% Swinging Strike rate, 2.6 BB/9 rate, and 61% Groundball rate....he might have the best closer skills in the game. 2022 BABIP: 0.291(0.291)| SwStr%: 18%(18%)| Avg FB: 100.9(100.9)| FB/Chg Split: 100.9(-0.3)| HR Distance: 382ft(382)| Launch Angle: -1.1| Strand%: 0.89(0.89)| HardHit%: 35.0(35.0)| 95MPH+%: 35.0(35.0)| Avg Velocity: 88(88.2)| Elevation%: -1.1(-1.1)| Barrels%: 4.5(4.5)| HR/FB%: 18%(18%)| GB Rate: 0.61(0.61)| xFIP: 2.11(0.25)| xSLG: 0.269(-0.037). Current ADP: 12.09 FDP 11.06