One of our staples within the Fantistics Draft Advisory product is our annual Comeback, Breakout, and Sleepers analysis. This is where we take a look at some of the players have fallen out of fantasy favor or have been looked less favorably by others (consensus). Although there inevitably is some conjecture involved, we base our projections on proven Sabermetric indicators (see our approximately 75% success rate in predicting the statistical direction for players). Our goal is to beat the herd mentality or Average Draft Position, which inherently will produce average fantasy results. The following section highlights the players that we believe will outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) by 1 or more rounds in 2022.
One of the features in the Fantistics Draft Advisory software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, RTSports and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to more closely match your draft, this also allows the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Knowing what your draft room sees or thinks of other players is almost like seeing the other owners cards during a poker game. This allows us to also gauge what players Fantistics ranks higher in value (FDP), verses their ADP. Which in turn allows Draft Advisory user, in some instances, to possibly wait an extra round or two before drafting a favorable player, further enhancing our Value Above Mean ideology.
What you will see in the last 3 columns to the right are the players latest NFBC ADP, the Fantistics Draft Position (FDP), and the last column represents the Delta between the two. As an example, OF Jarred Kelenic has a 242 overall ADP, but Fantistics values him 145th overall. In this case it behooves you to wait a few rounds before selecting him. In taking a similar approach through the rest of your draft, you will maximize value...and that's how drafts are won.
Below is a sample of Undervalued Players at the Outfield position.
De La Cruz, Bryan De La Cruz was demoted in mid-August after hitting 205/249/332 through his first 90 games with Miami, and the playing time was pretty consistent for June and July, so that shouldn't have been an issue. Instead of sulking, he went down to AAA and hit 320/370/620 in 13 games, and has continued to pound the ball upon his return to the Marlins. He singled, doubled, and homered on Wednesday to extend his hitting streak to 9 games, the last 4 of which are of the multi-hit variety. He came into the game hitting 396/433/755 since his return, the exit velocity is up over 90 mph, and the contact rate has jumped significantly during this hot streak. It's worth wondering just how much of the struggles earlier this year were just poor fortune, as evidence by his 287 Expected BA and 498 SLG, instead of the 252 BA and 432 SLG we saw last year. The 27% LD rate certainly points to a higher AVG than what he's shown, particularly when combined with an "all-fields" approach, and the EV jump of 1.5 mph could certainly point to a relatively common age-25 power jump. He will likely be a target of mine as an OF5 in 2023. - sdombroske 2022 BABIP: 0.304(-0.076)| Contact Rate: 74%(-3%)| xBA: 0.287(0.035)| xSLG: 0.498(0.066)| HR Distance: 395ft(5)| HR Max BBS: 111.2()| HardHit%: 47.3%(5.1%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.4)| Elevation%: 9.8(-1.3)| Barrels%: 11.9%(6.5%)| HR/FB%: 17%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.3)| EYE: 0.21(-0.13)| ISO: 18.0%(4.9%)
Profar, Jurickson Profar had a solid start to 2022, but production fell in the 2nd half with only 20 RBIs and 1 SB during that time frame. The best part of profars game isn't his power, but rather his contact skills which hover around 83%. RBI numbers have upside potential in 2023. especially now that he's in Colorado. 2022 BABIP: 0.272(0.006)| Contact Rate: 83%(-1%)| xBA: 0.251(0.008)| xSLG: 0.359(-0.032)| HR Distance: 381ft(-3)| HR Max BBS: 109.4()| HardHit%: 34.3%(4.1%)| Avg Velocity: 88(2.2)| Elevation%: 12.9(-1.1)| Barrels%: 4.0%(1.3%)| HR/FB%: 9%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.1)| EYE: 0.71(-0.04)| ISO: 14.8%(5.5%)
Pederson, Joc Pederson underlying indicators showed the best of his career with an elite 52% HardHIt% and 15% Barrels%. He even showed the ability to hit LHP with a 408 SLG against. All of which is going to be difficult to count on repeating in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.310(0.029)| Contact Rate: 78%(2%)| xBA: 0.266(-0.008)| xSLG: 0.502(-0.019)| HR Distance: 407ft(-1)| HR Max BBS: 112.8()| HardHit%: 52.1%(4.5%)| Avg Velocity: 93(2.2)| Elevation%: 14.8(0.7)| Barrels%: 15.1%(5.0%)| HR/FB%: 18%(5%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.1)| EYE: 0.42(0.09)| ISO: 24.7%(6.3%)
Meadows, Austin Covid and an Achilles issue robbed Meadows of his 2022 campaign. Meadows was coming off of the season in which he hit 27 home runs and drove in 106 RBIs. In a very limited 2022 season of 147 plate appearances meadows had an 89% contact rate and only a 5% swing instructor that's doubtful to hold but promising given he was coming off the season where his contact rate was 77% and swinging strike rate was around 11%. The good news is that his Achilles issue is clear and he's expected to be healthy to start the season. 2022 BABIP: 0.288(0.000)| Contact Rate: 89%(16%)| xBA: 0.308(0.058)| xSLG: 0.460(0.132)| HR Distance: 0ft(-409)| HR Max BBS: 108.2()| HardHit%: 39.6%(-3.3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-2.5)| Elevation%: 17.2(-7.2)| Barrels%: 6.3%(-0.8%)| HR/FB%: 0%(-9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.4)| EYE: 0.94(0.60)| ISO: 7.8%(-8.9%)
Gurriel Jr., Lourdes We're not sure what happened to Gurriel's power in 2022, as his 46% hard hit percentage was higher than the 43% of 2021 yet he hit 16 less home runs in 2022. His 4% home run rate screams regression to the mean in 2023 as his 90.6 MPH velocity on balls hit and play gives him plenty of upside. We love his 80% contact rate and only 17% strikeout percentage. The area that may not see upside is his batting average as a 295 BA was predicated on his 346 BABIP. 2022 BABIP: 0.346(0.041)| Contact Rate: 80%(3%)| xBA: 0.273(-0.018)| xSLG: 0.400(0.000)| HR Distance: 397ft(-2)| HR Max BBS: 109.5()| HardHit%: 45.7%(2.7%)| Avg Velocity: 91(0.9)| Elevation%: 10.9(0.4)| Barrels%: 3.8%(-5.8%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.1)| EYE: 0.37(0.06)| ISO: 10.9%(-8.1%)
Carlson, Dylan Carlson finished 2022 with an underwhelming .236 BA, 78HR, 56 R, 42 RBI, and 5 SB. He has been a disappointment in terms of fantasy because the expected upside was a 20 HR/20 SB player with a good average. He hasn't hit for average or power and has 9 SB in 278 career games at the major league level. The quality of contact has been dismal (5% Barrels and 27% HardHIt). It is time to move from Carlson. If we looked at his statistical profile without a name we would have no interest whatsoever. - pdouble 2022 BABIP: 0.281(-0.051)| Contact Rate: 77%(3%)| xBA: 0.234(-0.002)| xSLG: 0.355(-0.025)| HR Distance: 401ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 109.2()| HardHit%: 27.2%(-3.9%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-2.2)| Elevation%: 12.9(-2.0)| Barrels%: 4.4%(-2.6%)| HR/FB%: 6%(-6%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.1)| EYE: 0.48(0.10)| ISO: 14.4%(-2.7%)
Hays, Austin For the season Hays slashed .250/.305/.413 and has 16 homers. His homer total is down from his 22 of 2021, although his EV, HardHit%, and FB% are almost the same. He has had decreased power at home, only hitting 6 homers at Camden Yards after slugging 13 there last season. Hays may have suffered from the new left field configuration, as his HR/FB ratio has dropped from 15.0% to 10.6%. He is a veteran leader of the young Orioles, but in fantasy terms he's down the ladder in terms of value. - paul00 2022 BABIP: 0.289(0.003)| Contact Rate: 78%(2%)| xBA: 0.240(-0.010)| xSLG: 0.372(-0.041)| HR Distance: 397ft(7)| HR Max BBS: 109.0()| HardHit%: 37.7%(-1.5%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.1)| Elevation%: 11.3(-1.2)| Barrels%: 5.2%(-3.9%)| HR/FB%: 10%(-5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.0)| EYE: 0.30(0.04)| ISO: 16.3%(-4.2%)
Laureano, Ramon Ramon Laureano hasn't progressed as expected. Last year in a limited 383 at bats, Laureano hit thirteen home runs drove in 34 RBI's and hit 211. His batted ball profiles are around the average but his contact rate has been dipping since his rookie campaign and settled in at a meager 72% last season. On the flip side he's barreled ball up pretty well with an 11.6 barrels percentage. His upside this season, if he maintains full health, is a 20/20 season but the batting average it is likely to be a strain unless he can cut down on his 27%. 2022 BABIP: 0.262(-0.042)| Contact Rate: 72%(-3%)| xBA: 0.219(0.008)| xSLG: 0.402(0.026)| HR Distance: 399ft(-8)| HR Max BBS: 110.2()| HardHit%: 38.4%(-1.8%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.8)| Elevation%: 14.9(3.0)| Barrels%: 11.6%(0.9%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(-0.2)| EYE: 0.24(-0.04)| ISO: 16.5%(-3.2%)
Yastrzemski, Mike Yastrzemski had a rough season overall for but he has heated up in September, hitting .310 with 5 HR's and 3 doubles over his last 11 games. His overall numbers are down across the board, but his 41.2% HardHit% matches his career mark as do his 10.9% Barrel% and 25.0% K%. Yaz's HR/FB has dropped over 5% this season and his BABIP is also on the low end at .259, numbers which could very well rebound next season. He is a solid bounce-back candidate in 2023. - mgreenfeld 2022 BABIP: 0.261(0.007)| Contact Rate: 79%(2%)| xBA: 0.220(0.006)| xSLG: 0.392(0.000)| HR Distance: 400ft(-1)| HR Max BBS: 109.7()| HardHit%: 42.5%(3.2%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.4)| Elevation%: 19.9(0.5)| Barrels%: 11.1%(0.8%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-5%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(0.0)| EYE: 0.43(0.04)| ISO: 17.8%(-5.5%)
Conforto, Michael Conforto is coming off of a gap year in which he took time to heal from injury. In 2021, Conforto was a major disappointment hitting .232 with 14 HR, 52 R, 55 RBI, and 1 SB in 125 GP. His plate skills are better than the shortened season (22% K and 12% BB) but a .412 BABIP vs. .274 BABIP will cause major regression in his batting average. His O-swing is still the same as it has been (28%) for most of his career. He has above-average Statcast numbers (9% Barrels, 40% HardHIt, and 111.3 mph maxEV). All of this paints the picture of someone that bounces back in 2022 as there are no signs of decline for the 28-year-old outfielder other than poor luck on balls in play. - pdouble
McCutchen, Andrew Despite the advancing age McCutchen continues to produce at surprising levels. His 40% Hard Hit rate, 89.1 Velo, and 8.6% Barrels are all near or above league average, as is his 12% HR/FB rate....there is upside in his HR count, which should aid his RBI totals as well in 2023, but it will be dependent on health. 2022 BABIP: 0.278(0.036)| Contact Rate: 78%(2%)| xBA: 0.252(0.015)| xSLG: 0.406(0.022)| HR Distance: 395ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 110.6()| HardHit%: 40.0%(0.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.3)| Elevation%: 13.2(-1.4)| Barrels%: 8.6%(-0.4%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.1)| EYE: 0.46(-0.15)| ISO: 14.7%(-7.5%)
Bellinger, Cody There was definitely an improvement in what we saw from Cody Bellinger in 2022 verses 2021. Was it a revision back to his all star 2019 season? Definitely not, but we saw his HardHit% improve to 38% from 34% in 201. He cut down on the Ks improving his contact rate to 76% from 72%. There was a lot of stabilization in what appeared to be a spiraling scenario, and there is a lot of upside in his 11% HR/FB rate in 2022. Additionally as a pull hitter we should see some aid to his 255 BABIP and 210 BA in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.255(0.059)| Contact Rate: 76%(4%)| xBA: 0.213(0.003)| xSLG: 0.354(-0.035)| HR Distance: 393ft(12)| HR Max BBS: 107.3()| HardHit%: 38.1%(3.7%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.1)| Elevation%: 20.3(-1.9)| Barrels%: 8.3%(1.2%)| HR/FB%: 11%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.1)| EYE: 0.25(-0.08)| ISO: 17.9%(4.2%)
Happ, Ian The 28 year-old was a rare bright spot for the Cubbies in 2022,hitting .271 with 17 homers, 72 runs scored, 72 RBI, and 9 steals (4 caught) across 641 PA, with an above-average wRC+ of 124. He's trimmed his strikeout rate to just under 26% (29% career) while continuing to make hard contact at a solid 40% rate per Statcast (41% career). His HR/FB does seem a bit low for him at 12% (21% career), so the homer total is probably a bit lower than it could otherwise be, but overall Happ has shown some solid improvements in terms of contact (76%, up from under 70% career) and swinging-strike rate (12%, down from 14% career). - ahodge 2022 BABIP: 0.336(0.055)| Contact Rate: 76%(6%)| xBA: 0.239(-0.032)| xSLG: 0.379(-0.061)| HR Distance: 390ft(-12)| HR Max BBS: 113.9()| HardHit%: 40.4%(-0.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.2)| Elevation%: 10.9(1.0)| Barrels%: 6.5%(-4.4%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.0)| EYE: 0.39(-0.01)| ISO: 16.9%(-3.9%)
Nimmo, Brandon Nimmo finished up a strong season with a .800 OPS and 16 homers over 673 plate appearances. Hi 16 HRs were a career high but his 11% HR/FB rate has upside based on his above average distance on his HRs and above average velo on his balls hit in play. Love the contact rates but the 102 RS in 2022, are not likely repeatable. 2022 BABIP: 0.317(-0.049)| Contact Rate: 83%(2%)| xBA: 0.261(-0.013)| xSLG: 0.409(-0.024)| HR Distance: 402ft(5)| HR Max BBS: 111.9()| HardHit%: 39.8%(-1.3%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.1)| Elevation%: 6.1(-2.7)| Barrels%: 7.0%(3.0%)| HR/FB%: 11%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.61(-0.07)| ISO: 15.9%(1.4%)
Suzuki, Seiya Suzuki has suffered a left oblique strain and will miss the start of the 2023 season. | On the surface Suzuki's 2022 campaign of 14 home runs 46 RBIs, 54 runs scored, and 262 BA...doesn't seem very impressive but consider it came in less than a full season of at bats. In fact in the second-half of 2022 in 283 plate appearances, Suzuki had 10 home runs drove in 25 RBI's, stole 6 bases, and hit 271. All of which is supported by a higher than average 41% hard hit percentage and 89.6 MPH velocity. Of note is his 79% contact rate. There is more upside in the 12% home run of flyball rate which probably should be closer to 14% in 2023. 2022 BABIP: 0.326(0.326)| Contact Rate: 79%(79%)| xBA: 0.247(-0.015)| xSLG: 0.419(-0.014)| HR Distance: 397ft(397)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 41.3%(41.3%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.6)| Elevation%: 11.2(11.2)| Barrels%: 11.0%(11.0%)| HR/FB%: 12%(12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.38(-0.12)| ISO: 17.1%(17.1%)
Gonzalez, Oscar Oscar Gonzalez had a strong rookie campaign hitting .296 with 11 HR, 39 R, 43 RBI, and 1 SB. He has shown the ability to hit for average due to an above-average strikeout rate (19% K). He also hits for power thanks to good quality of contact (7% Barrels and 40% HardHIt). The problem is that he can't fully tap into his power due to a 50% GB rate. He has the profile for growth given his ability to hit for average and the potential to hit for power if he were to make a slight change in his launch angle. WIll need to improve on his BB% or pitchers will start pitching outside the zone on him. - pdouble 2022 BABIP: 0.345(0.345)| Contact Rate: 76%(76%)| xBA: 0.279(-0.017)| xSLG: 0.422(-0.039)| HR Distance: 397ft(397)| HR Max BBS: 113.3()| HardHit%: 40.1%(40.1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(88.6)| Elevation%: 5.4(5.4)| Barrels%: 7.3%(7.3%)| HR/FB%: 13%(13%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.8(1.8)| EYE: 0.20(-0.03)| ISO: 16.5%(16.5%)
Benintendi, Andrew Benintendi is an above-average contact, average power, average speed sort of a player....very useful as a 4th or 5th OF as there's real weak spot. He hasn't shown much power this year with a drastically reduced pull% of 29.5 (5% lower than his previous career low), but I believe that he has the bat control to return to a greater pull% like he had in 2021 (40.5), and if so he certainly has the ability to return to the 20 HR level. Throw in 10 steals, a solid AVG, and I'll be very interested in him for 2023. Needless to say, I think he's a very solid mid-range OF. - sdombroske 2022 BABIP: 0.352(0.043)| Contact Rate: 82%(2%)| xBA: 0.273(-0.031)| xSLG: 0.407(0.008)| HR Distance: 401ft(10)| HR Max BBS: 109.8()| HardHit%: 38.7%(-4.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.4)| Elevation%: 12.6(-2.8)| Barrels%: 5.1%(-3.8%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.3)| EYE: 0.68(0.31)| ISO: 9.5%(-7.1%)
O'Neill, Tyler Tyler O'Neill had a breakout season in 2021 when he posted a 34 HR/80 RBI/89 RS/15 SB/ .286 line in 2021....only to follow that up with a disappointing 14HR/58 RBI/%6 RS/228 BA in 2022. Granted there were 150 less PAs, but his rate stats weren't even close. A closer look shows that although the underlying quality of contact regressed in 2022, the indicators are still above average with a 43% HardHit%, 11.3% Barrels%, and 90 MPH average velo. O'Neil has Bounceback potential written all over him. 2022 BABIP: 0.277(-0.089)| Contact Rate: 72%(5%)| xBA: 0.240(0.012)| xSLG: 0.423(0.031)| HR Distance: 405ft(-9)| HR Max BBS: 110.3()| HardHit%: 43.3%(-8.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-3.2)| Elevation%: 13.6(-4.2)| Barrels%: 11.3%(-6.6%)| HR/FB%: 16%(-11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.2)| EYE: 0.37(0.14)| ISO: 16.4%(-11.0%)
Ozuna, Marcell Ozuna finished 2022 with 23 homers, 56 RBIs, and 56 runs with a .226 average and a .678 OPS in 124 games. Ozuna's disappointing 2022 seems to have proved that his even worse 2021 (.645 OPS in 48 games) was no fluke, as there's now a full season's worth of data suggesting he's a below-average hitter. Between his age (nearly 32) and his plate discipline falling off a cliff (49:163 BB/K ratio since the beginning of 2021), Ozuna appears to be on the downswing. He seems to have gotten unlucky with a .247 BABIP since the beginning of last year, but that's also a byproduct of his lower 89.9 mph average exit velocity during that time and his career-worst 20.9% line-drive rate this season. Injuries seem to have taken their toll as well, as he's missed considerable time in each of the past two seasons. Add it all up, and you don't have a super appealing fantasy option for 2023. He still has a decent floor, but there's not much of a ceiling. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.252(0.008)| Contact Rate: 73%(-1%)| xBA: 0.256(0.030)| xSLG: 0.478(0.065)| HR Distance: 414ft(-9)| HR Max BBS: 113.9()| HardHit%: 43.8%(3.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.3)| Elevation%: 16.5(2.0)| Barrels%: 13.1%(3.2%)| HR/FB%: 15%(3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.0)| EYE: 0.25(-0.16)| ISO: 18.7%(4.4%)
Rosario, Amed It's easy to be a bit underwhelmed by what the former top prospect has turned into, but he's actually a pretty consistent, valuable player in the middle infield. In his last 3 full seasons (discarding the 2020 partial season) he's hit over .280 every year with 11-15 HR and 13-19 SB, and he's done this while reducing his swinging strike rate every single season he's been in the majors (he's gotten all the way to a below average level at 9.8% here in 2022). Sure, the power is still below average and there's no strike zone discipline to speak of, but at age 26 he's turned himself into a consistently solid option at a position where we love to find guys like that, because replacement level is reasonably low relative to hitters overall. - sdombroske 2022 BABIP: 0.326(-0.014)| Contact Rate: 81%(4%)| xBA: 0.276(-0.007)| xSLG: 0.396(-0.007)| HR Distance: 407ft(8)| HR Max BBS: 110.8()| HardHit%: 38.3%(-5.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-0.4)| Elevation%: 5.0(-0.6)| Barrels%: 4.5%(1.7%)| HR/FB%: 8%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.9(0.1)| EYE: 0.23(-0.03)| ISO: 12.0%(-0.7%)
Garcia, Adolis Garcia posted an impressive 27/25 season this year, and his EV and relatively low pull% battle pretty well against his massive contact issues to keep his AVG from being a major problem. After multiple seasons of this, we have to accept that this is who he is: a very strong OF in traditional formats that needs to be downgraded a touch in OBP-based formats because of that ever-pesky combination of poor chase rate and poor contact rate. - sdombroske | When he does make contact the results have been terrific. His underlying indicators of 47% HardHit% , 92 MPH avg velo, and 13% Barrels% are elite. He improved his contact rate slightly to 69% last season, and reduced the K% from 31% to 28% last season. 2022 BABIP: 0.309(0.003)| Contact Rate: 69%(0%)| xBA: 0.244(-0.006)| xSLG: 0.447(-0.009)| HR Distance: 403ft(5)| HR Max BBS: 113.0()| HardHit%: 47.4%(1.9%)| Avg Velocity: 92(1.1)| Elevation%: 13.2(-1.5)| Barrels%: 12.9%(1.4%)| HR/FB%: 16%(-4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.1)| EYE: 0.22(0.06)| ISO: 20.6%(-0.5%)
Buxton, Byron Buxton was on pace for 45 HRs in 2022, before he once again was not able to log in a full season. His 50% HardHit%, 93 MPH average Velo and 16% barrels % is among the elite in the game. The average has suffered thanks to the heavy 58% Pull rate....and with shifts banned in 2023, Buxton's weakness in BA and RS could become palatable for fantasy owners considering him in the early rounds. 2022 BABIP: 0.244(-0.100)| Contact Rate: 69%(-3%)| xBA: 0.242(0.018)| xSLG: 0.509(-0.017)| HR Distance: 410ft(-7)| HR Max BBS: 113.5()| HardHit%: 50.2%(-3.6%)| Avg Velocity: 93(0.4)| Elevation%: 21.4(8.1)| Barrels%: 16.4%(-1.5%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-5%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(-0.5)| EYE: 0.29(0.08)| ISO: 30.2%(-3.9%)
Yelich, Christian There's no denying there is some disappointment as the former MVP, who hit 80 home runs combined between 2018 and 2019, has shown no semblance of the power that carried him to stardom with the Brewers. Yelich ranks among the league leaders in quality of contact but it is still a decline from his best seasons, and while he peaked at a 11.3-degree launch angle in 2019, he has posted sub-4.0 launch angles each of the past two seasons. He has dealt with injuries, notably shoulder and back issues. Those will affect a swing path unlike anything else, and while the book isn't closed on the 30-year-old outfielder, he should no longer be considered a top-20 outfielder. - bkamerman 2022 BABIP: 0.327(0.006)| Contact Rate: 77%(0%)| xBA: 0.258(0.006)| xSLG: 0.404(0.021)| HR Distance: 415ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 117.2()| HardHit%: 48.6%(-0.2%)| Avg Velocity: 92(0.5)| Elevation%: 3.6(0.8)| Barrels%: 8.2%(0.6%)| HR/FB%: 15%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.6(0.3)| EYE: 0.54(-0.08)| ISO: 13.1%(0.6%)
Bryant, Kris A back injury and plantar fasciitis derailed his 2022 season, a season that started off well in the rarified air of Colorado. Bryant's production returned to form in 2021 after a down 2020 campaign, batting .265 with 25 homers 73 RBI, 86 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases across 586 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is back down to his career average (23%) while his hard-hit rate has rebounded to 39% per Statcast (38% career, just 32% in 2020). Bryant's production is tenuous as it's based on health concerns. 2022 BABIP: 0.338(0.025)| Contact Rate: 79%(5%)| xBA: 0.279(-0.027)| xSLG: 0.426(-0.049)| HR Distance: 391ft(0)| HR Max BBS: 107.9()| HardHit%: 29.6%(-10.4%)| Avg Velocity: 85(-3.2)| Elevation%: 13.5(-1.6)| Barrels%: 6.7%(-3.6%)| HR/FB%: 10%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.1)| EYE: 0.63(0.17)| ISO: 16.9%(-4.7%)
Bader, Harrison 03/10/2023 Bader is dealing with a left oblique strain and be out for at least 6 weeks. | Bader's quality of contact skills have been declining as evidenced by his 26% HardHit% and 83 MPH average velo in 2022. There is upside in playing in Yankee stadium however, so the categories surrounding his stolen bases could provide some support for fantasy owners. 2022 BABIP: 0.300(-0.006)| Contact Rate: 79%(2%)| xBA: 0.234(-0.016)| xSLG: 0.321(-0.035)| HR Distance: 382ft(-23)| HR Max BBS: 109.6()| HardHit%: 26.3%(-5.4%)| Avg Velocity: 83(-2.8)| Elevation%: 16.7(3.4)| Barrels%: 3.4%(-3.6%)| HR/FB%: 5%(-9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.1)| EYE: 0.24(-0.08)| ISO: 10.6%(-8.7%)
Greene, Riley Greene was a top 6 hitting prospect coming into 2022. Upon his callup in 2022, we really didn't see Greene's underlying skill set translate into the counting stats. 418 plate appearances green hit five home runs drove in 42 RBI's, 46 runs scored and hit 253. It is aforementioned underlying skill set paints a different story his 45% hard hit percentage is leaf as was his 412 average distance on his home runs. Hi 78% contact rate was very encouraging, but there was some luck to the BA given the 354 BABIP. Right now Greene is hitting predominately groundballs as evidenced by his 56% GB rate. For him to reach his full potential we're going to have to see a pretty big shift from his 2% elevation in 2022. 2022 BABIP: 0.354(0.354)| Contact Rate: 78%(78%)| xBA: 0.246(-0.007)| xSLG: 0.388(0.026)| HR Distance: 412ft(412)| HR Max BBS: 112.1()| HardHit%: 45.2%(45.2%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.5)| Elevation%: 2.8(2.8)| Barrels%: 9.3%(9.3%)| HR/FB%: 8%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.3(2.3)| EYE: 0.30(-0.06)| ISO: 10.9%(10.9%)
Mitchell, Garrett *Top 100 Prospect | Hitter Rank- 74 POS: CF Current level-MLB Expected MLB-2022 HR/FB-12.5% K%-25.6% SwStr-12.7% wAVG-287 wOBA-366 SLUG-426 | In 2022, Mitchell played 44 games at AA Biloxi prior to that Mitchell slashed .277/.353/.428 with 7 steals. Speed is a superior weapon for the 20th overall pick from the 2020 draft. However, he projects to contribute with average and could develop some power as well. Was remarkably fortunate in his first 68 MLB PAs. Mitchell posted a BABIP of .548 that has been counteracting his K% of 40.7%. He hasn't struck out at that extreme rate in the minors so chalk that up to small sample size. Looking to 2023, Mitchell's primary value will be speed. His average in the minors has been dependent on his BABIP as his GB% has not been below 57.1%. It's hard to extrapolate anything on the MLB level from his small sample size but he hasn't shown much to indicate those trends won't continue. - paul00 2022 BABIP: 0.548(0.548)| Contact Rate: 75%(75%)| xBA: 0.187(-0.124)| xSLG: 0.339(-0.120)| HR Distance: 394ft(394)| HR Max BBS: 109.9()| HardHit%: 41.2%(41.2%)| Avg Velocity: 93(92.9)| Elevation%: 9.5(9.5)| Barrels%: 11.8%(11.8%)| HR/FB%: 15%(15%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.21(-0.11)| ISO: 14.8%(14.8%)
Marte, Starling Marte did well in his limited 2022 season finishing with 16/63/76/18/292. Although the numbers don't appear to be eye popping, these are very relevant fantasy numbers. The downside is that his stolen base production is predictably on the decline as are his power numbers. In his favor are his contact skills and heavier groundball rates. At 34 it's time to accept the enviable decline in production. 2022 BABIP: 0.340(-0.032)| Contact Rate: 78%(0%)| xBA: 0.276(-0.016)| xSLG: 0.428(-0.040)| HR Distance: 405ft(-13)| HR Max BBS: 113.3()| HardHit%: 33.9%(-5.7%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.8)| Elevation%: 7.5(2.9)| Barrels%: 6.8%(-1.6%)| HR/FB%: 15%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.7(-0.6)| EYE: 0.27(-0.16)| ISO: 17.6%(2.8%)
Blackmon, Charlie Production has been on a steady decline, and that's totally within expectation for an aging athlete. Hard Hit rate dropped to 31% and barrels bottomed out at 4.4%. As long as he stays healthy, he'll get his ABs and the resulting production will be coming in the glorified air of Colorado. 2022 BABIP: 0.304(-0.001)| Contact Rate: 81%(0%)| xBA: 0.256(-0.008)| xSLG: 0.376(-0.043)| HR Distance: 409ft(-1)| HR Max BBS: 109.5()| HardHit%: 30.6%(-7.9%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-1.4)| Elevation%: 12.4(2.2)| Barrels%: 4.4%(-2.6%)| HR/FB%: 11%(1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.3)| EYE: 0.29(-0.30)| ISO: 15.5%(1.4%)
Vaughn, Andrew Vaughn hit all over the White Sox lineup but appears to be settling in near the top. He doesn't walk a whole lot but also rarely strikes out, generally putting the ball in play (81%). He is patient and makes good contact on pitches inside the zone, which is crucial when hitting in front of the White Sox' power hitters. Meanwhile, he has pop. Although he only finished with 17 home runs, his .16 ISO and near 49% hard-hit rate are indicative of his ability to hit for extra bases.. - bkamerman | If he can maintain that level of hard contact, he had the potential to easily be a 30 HR a year hitter. 2022 BABIP: 0.301(0.030)| Contact Rate: 81%(3%)| xBA: 0.255(-0.016)| xSLG: 0.415(-0.014)| HR Distance: 402ft(-6)| HR Max BBS: 112.1()| HardHit%: 48.6%(1.6%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.3)| Elevation%: 7.5(-2.2)| Barrels%: 7.9%(-3.0%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.2)| EYE: 0.32(-0.09)| ISO: 15.8%(-0.3%)
Harris II, Michael Harris was a relative unknown coming into the 2022 season. Consider that he had hit only 9 homeruns before last season in A ball play, and only hit 5 HRs. in AA before his callup. What fantasy owners got from Harris in only 441 plate appearances was simply amazing. He hit nineteen home runs, drove in 64 RBI's, scored 75 runs, hit 297, and finished it off with twenty stolen bases and 22 attempts. We love seeing the hard contact which was 45% in 2022. That said the 19 home runs in 414 ABs were a anomaly as his 23% home run /FB rate simply isn't sustainable. That doesn't mean that he won't hit more than nineteen home runs this season over a full season of at bats. To do that he's likely going to have to change his approach at the plate as he's predominantly a groundball hitter as evidenced by his 56% groundball rate. Many young hitters make that transition to a more balanced 42% groundball rate but it's a guessing game whether that will come in 2023 or not. Regardless there's a lot to be impressed about with this game and his meteoric rise. 2022 BABIP: 0.361(0.361)| Contact Rate: 74%(74%)| xBA: 0.268(-0.029)| xSLG: 0.460(-0.054)| HR Distance: 402ft(402)| HR Max BBS: 112.8()| HardHit%: 45.1%(45.1%)| Avg Velocity: 90(89.5)| Elevation%: 4.5(4.5)| Barrels%: 10.1%(10.1%)| HR/FB%: 23%(23%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.1(2.1)| EYE: 0.20(-0.09)| ISO: 21.7%(21.7%)
Verdugo, Alex What we love about Verdugo is his 86% contact rate and low 6% swinging strike rate. Verdugo is a hitter that has yet to put it together in the power categories, however that may be forthcoming his 38% hard hit percentage and 89% VELO on batted balls is not far below league average what needs to improve is his 6% barrels rate and as we saw in the home run count of only 11 in 2022, his 7% home run to flyball rate appears to have more upward mobility. It wouldn't be a stretch to see him in the 12 to 13% range in 2023 which could be a catalyst for his other categories. 2022 BABIP: 0.309(-0.018)| Contact Rate: 86%(2%)| xBA: 0.278(-0.002)| xSLG: 0.428(0.023)| HR Distance: 399ft(-3)| HR Max BBS: 111.0()| HardHit%: 38.2%(-5.1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.9)| Elevation%: 8.4(0.7)| Barrels%: 6.0%(-1.3%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.4)| EYE: 0.49(-0.04)| ISO: 12.5%(-1.2%)
Mullins, Cedric While Baltimore's leadoff man has taken a step back from last year's MVP-caliber campaign, he still put up good fantasy numbers across the board with 89 runs, 16 homers, 64 RBIs, 34 steals, and a .258 batting average. While he didn't have a 30/30 this year like he did last year, he at least proved that last season's breakout wasn't a fluke. Yes, it will probably be best year of his career, but moving the fences back in his ballpark had a considerable affect, as he lost 100 SLUG points year over year at home. - tmaher 2022 BABIP: 0.299(-0.023)| Contact Rate: 81%(-1%)| xBA: 0.232(-0.026)| xSLG: 0.349(-0.054)| HR Distance: 389ft(-8)| HR Max BBS: 109.4()| HardHit%: 37.3%(-2.1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.6)| Elevation%: 17.4(2.6)| Barrels%: 4.9%(-3.2%)| HR/FB%: 8%(-8%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.1)| EYE: 0.37(-0.10)| ISO: 14.5%(-8.2%)
Nootbaar, Lars After four seasons in the minor leagues without displaying a lot of power, Nootbar found his home run stroke with the Cardinals last year, posting a .219 ISO, supported by a 91.5-mph average exit velocity, 45.5% hard-hit rate and double-digit barrel rate. Meanwhile, he is continuing to do what he did well in the minors: walk often and strike out infrequently. The Cardinals will have some decisions to make in their outfield next season, but Nootbar should be a starter somewhere. If he earns that role, he should be owned in all fantasy formats. - bkamerman 2022 BABIP: 0.248(-0.025)| Contact Rate: 78%(1%)| xBA: 0.247(0.019)| xSLG: 0.414(-0.034)| HR Distance: 401ft(-13)| HR Max BBS: 113.0()| HardHit%: 46.0%(9.9%)| Avg Velocity: 92(2.6)| Elevation%: 10.7(-1.4)| Barrels%: 12.1%(7.3%)| HR/FB%: 17%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.0)| EYE: 0.72(0.26)| ISO: 22.0%(3.7%)
Rodriguez, Julio The American League Rookie of the Year. His power/speed combination will make Rodriguez a top-half-of-the-first-round pick in 2023, and while a sophomore slump is certainly possible, his ability to make adjustments this season prove he is capable of outplaying his projections. - bkamerman | JRod is a superstar at only 22 YO. 28 HR/75 RBI/*$ RS/25 SB/284BA in only 132 games is only scratching the surface. All of his contact indicators are already elite: 50.7 HardHit%, 92 MPH average velo on BABIP, 117 Max velo on HRs...needless to say, insane. potential. The only fly in the ointment is that he'll likely start the season as the leadoff hitter, which will hurt the RBI potential....but will be mitigated somewhat in the RS category. 2022 BABIP: 0.345(0.345)| Contact Rate: 71%(71%)| xBA: 0.254(-0.030)| xSLG: 0.460(-0.049)| HR Distance: 397ft(397)| HR Max BBS: 117.2()| HardHit%: 50.7%(50.7%)| Avg Velocity: 92(92.0)| Elevation%: 10.1(10.1)| Barrels%: 13.1%(13.1%)| HR/FB%: 21%(21%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(1.3)| EYE: 0.28(-0.06)| ISO: 22.5%(22.5%)
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