Hi Folks,
If you play in a Rotisserie league, our Draft Advisory software is designed
to give you the opportunity to favor the more predictable categories in your
league. Instead of each category having an even "1" weighting, it's an
opportunity to play the percentages of predictability, allowing you to give
different weights to each Roto category that are relevant to your league
scoring. I'm sure many of you already know that categories such as Batting
Average can fluctuate wildly on a yearly basis. So wouldn't it make sense to
slightly underweight that category when creating your rankings?
Within the Setup|Edit League Settings section, select the Rotisserie scoring option and check the Advanced option located above the scoring grid. This scoring option will allow you to weigh each Rotisserie category according to your preference. Although most leagues use an equal weighing for each Rotisserie category some leagues do not. Even if your league uses an equal weighing system, it's important to understand that not every statistical category has an equal predictability.
From a predictability standpoint, here is a recent 3 year correlation (excluding the shorten 2020 season) in forecasting for each of the following player stat categories :
(See more category correlations by clicking
here).
In the statistical term of correlation, the range of correlation ranges from -1 to +1, with 1.00 considered a perfect "fit", the better the fit the more reliable the forecast. A .20 is considered a loose correlation, .4 a good correlation, and .6 a very good fit. Thus we know that there is a higher predictability in forecasting Homeruns, Stolen Bases, Pitcher's Strikeouts, and WHIP. Neutral categories include Runs Batted In and Runs Scored. Categories that offer poor predictability year over year includes Batting Average, ERA, and Wins.
For those who would like to play the percentages, for 2022 we suggest the following weighing within these typical categories. As an example of what these weighting signify, Batting Average entered in as a .8, which basically weighs the Batting Average category at 80%, while the Stolen Base category (which is very predictable) is entered as a 1.4, which weighs the category at 140%.
(See more categories for the Advanced settings by clicking here, remember to ONLY USE THE SCORING CATEGORIES THAT YOUR LEAGUE USES!)
Overall, the tweaking discussed above won't dramatically change the rankings, but you will be be increasing the odds of predictability for your team...and whenever there is an statistical advantage to gain, it's something worth exploiting. - Anthony
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