Danny Jansen (C-TOR) underwhelmed in his first few campaigns after reaching the majors in 2018, never hitting north of .223 or hitting more than 13 homers in a single season in which he recorded more than 100 PA. Injuries were part of the issue, and even though they cropped up again in 2022 he nevertheless put together his strongest season yet, logging a .260 average, 15 dingers, and 44 RBI across 248 PA, with a career-best wRC+ of 140 attesting to his productivity. He split time with Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno, but Moreno has since been traded to Arizona and Kirk seems likely to see some time at DH, so Jansen could eclipse his career-high of 384 PA from 2019. Given his fair patience at the dish (10% walk rate in 2022, 10% career), improved strikeout rate in 2022 (18%, down from 20% career), and ability to make hard contact (47% per Statcast in 2022, 41% career), he could prove more valuable in fantasy baseball than his ranking at about #10 or so at the C position suggests. The 27 year-old does have a flyball tendency (51% flyball rate in 2022, 44% career), so the average will suffer a bit. But Jansen posted an average 80% contact rate in 2022 to go with an acceptable 9% swinging-strike rate, and so his average shouldn't be atrocious. Set your expectations at about a .240 or so average with 20ish homers and you shouldn't be disappointed... so long as he stays on the field.
Nathaniel Lowe (1B-TEX) took a significant step forward in 2022, as he logged career bests in batting average (.302), home runs (27), and RBI (76), with a 143 wRC+ far eclipsing his previous high of 114 (2021). The 27 year-old has always been an above-average producer, with his lowest wRC+ (103) coming in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. Lowe's walk rate dipped to 7% in 2022 (10% career, was 13% in 2021) as he offered more aggressively (52% swing rate in 2022, 48% career), especially at pitches inside the zone (75% in 2022, 70% career). His contact rate remained steady at 79%, although his swinging-strike rate climbed slightly (up to 11% from 10% career). In addition to swinging at more pitches inside the zone, Lowe trimmed his groundball rate to 48% (was 55% in 2021), raised his flyball rate to 31% (was 27% in 2021), and elevated his liner rate to 21% (was 18% in 2021) while maintaining a 45% hard-hit rate per Statcast. The net result was a productive fantasy season. Although Lowe's homer output should come in at the mid-20s or higher, there's reason to suspect regression in the average department given his .363 BABIP (previous high was .340), average contact rate, and modest speed. Expect an average of about .270 to go along with approximately 25 dingers.
Jonathan India (2B-CIN) disappointed in 2022 (.249 average, 10 homers, 41 RBI, 48 runs scored, 3 steals, and a wRC+ of 95 across 431 PA) after earning NL ROY honors in 2021 (.269 average, 21 dingers, 69 RBI, 98 runs scored, and a 120 wRC+ across 631 PA). Multiple hamstring injuries sent him to the IL for significant stretches and he never really seemed to find his footing outside of July (.290 average, 5 homers, 1 steal in 104 PA). The then-25 year-old maintained a 22% strikeout rate, but his walk rate dipped to 7% (was 11% in 2021) while his hard-hit rate fell off a cliff to 29% per Statcast (was 38% in 2021). Otherwise, a lot of India's advanced metrics stayed near where they were in 2021, which suggests that he could rebound in 2023. In fact, his contact rate climbed slightly to 79% (from 77%) as he made more contact on pitches both inside the zone (89%, up from 87%) and outside the zone (63%, up from 61%). His chase rate was up to 28% (was 25% in 2021), but that's still below league average. Overall, there is reason to suspect that the injury issues derailed India's 2022 campaign and that he should therefore perform closer to what he did in 2021 during the coming season so long as he stays healthy. Expect an average of about .260 to go with 15-20 homers and 10-12 steals, and he could very well exceed those figures. India is certainly worth a flier as a late-round or low-budget pick as he's currently ranked outside of the top 15 at the 2B position.
CJ Abrams (SS-WSH) could be a fantasy asset in a time when steals are a fairly scarce commodity. He did not impress overall as a 21 year-old rookie in 2021, recording a .246 average with 2 homers, 21 RBI, 33 runs scored, and 7 stolen bases across 302 PA split between San Diego and Washington. The good news is that Abrams finished the campaign strong, batting .303 with 6 2B, 2 3B, 7 RBI, 14 runs scored, and 5 steals across 130 PA in September and October, albeit with no homers. Although his scouting grades indicate that he could possess average in-game power with further development (and he did hit 7 dingers across 151 PA in the PCL before moving to the Nationals organization last year), his plus-plus contact potential and blazing (80-grade) speed are more likely to pay dividends now. The lefty hitter struggled mightily against southpaws last season (.157 average, 0 homers, 6 RBI, and 7 runs scored over 92 PA), so he may lose some at-bats, but Abrams was acquired to be the Nationals' SS of the future and so he should have an opportunity to play every day. Currently ranked outside of the top 15 at the SS position, Abrams is a guy who can be targeted late as a cheap source of steals with upside, especially since Nationals manager Dave Martinez has indicated that he could bat toward the top of the lineup with a strong showing in spring training.
Jose Ramirez (3B-CLE) was productive as usual in 2022 (.280 average, 29 homers, 126 RBI, 90 runs scored, and 20 steals over 685 PA), but a thumb injury that ultimately required offseason surgery caused his production to dip a little during the second half of the season (.269 average, 10 dingers, 51 RBI, 37 runs scored, and 7 steals across 271 PA). The good news is that Ramirez is reportedly feeling good as spring training begins. Widely viewed as a top 5 player in fantasy and perhaps the top option at 3B, the 30 year-old should again be a five-category contributor thanks to his elite contact ability (86% contact rate and 12% strikeout rate in 2021), consistent pop (ISO of .224 or higher each year since 2017, with his 17 homers in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign marking his only total below 23 since 2017), and his speed (at least 17 steals per season since 2017, again outside of the 2020 campaign, when he swiped 10 bags). An average around .270, a homer total around 30, and 20 steals seem likely for Ramirez in 2023, who also tends to stay healthy; excluding 2020, he's logged at least 600 PA per year in every season but one (2019, when he recorded 542) since 2016.
Kyle Schwarber (OF-PHI) is coming off of a season in which he hit just .218 across a career-high 669 PA, but slugged 46 homers, scored 100 runs, drove in 94 runs, and swiped 10 bags, all of which were career highs. He hit out of the leadoff spot for most of the campaign, a role that he's reportedly not going to reprise with Trea Turner joining the Phillies this season. Hitting out of the two-hole - as sources indicate may happen - would help in the RBI department while minimally affecting anything else. The 30-homer was his 4th since entering the league in 2015, and Schwarber excels at making hard contact (54% per Statcast in 2022, 49% career). His average, however, does suffer in part because of a high strikeout rate (30% in 2022, 28% career), but his .240 BABIP in 2022 was on the unlucky side (.268 career). Something closer to his career average of .233 is quite possible in 2023, and while that is still unexciting, Schwarber's ability to hit 35+ homers and the possibility that he will log 90 RBI and 90 runs scored makes him a top 10 option in the OF.
Michael Harris II (OF-ATL) impressed as a 21 year-old rookie in 2022, earning NL ROY honors as he hit .297 with 19 homers, 64 RBI, 75 runs scored, and 20 steals across just 441 PA, with a healthy wRC+ of 136. There's a lot to like about his ability to offer likely 20-20 production, with more on the steals side, especially, possible, but there are some concerns heading into the 2023 campaign. For instance, the average came in high despite a 24% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate, and a contact rate just under 74%. He offered a lot at pitches outside of the zone (42% o-swing%), which contributed to the swinging-strike rate. And although Harris logged a robust 45% hard-hit rate per Statcast, he did rip worm-burners at a lofty 56% clip, which isn't bad since he has nice wheels but does not bode well for power production (17% liner rate and 27% flyball rate). It's also worth noting that he hit just .238 with 2 homers, 17 RBI, 13 runs scored, and 5 steals in 135 PA against southpaws while mashing righties (.323 average, 17 dingers, 47 RBI, 62 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases); he earned a below-average wRC+ of 80 and a weak .649 OPS against lefties against a 161 wRC+ and .943 OPS against righties. Given his age and ability, it's unlikely that Atlanta "protects" Harris from lefties and his demonstrated ability to crush against righties makes him an exciting fantasy option. He's certainly capable of producing a 20-20 season with an average about .275 in his sophomore campaign.
Alex Kirilloff (OF-MIN) again dealt with wrist problems in 2022, which derailed a season in which he raked in Triple-A (.359 average, 10 homers, and 32 RBI over 157 PA) and rejoined the big club (.250 average, 3 dingers, and 21 RBI over 156 PA). While his overall big-league production has been lackluster to date (.251 average, 11 homers, and 50 RBI, with a 5% walk rate and 21% strikeout rate across 387 PA), Kirilloff was a highly touted prospect who has shown flashes in the majors. He never struck out much in the minors, and his 23% strikeout rate so far in the bigs suggests that he has not been overmatched. It's encouraging, moreover, that his swinging-strike rate dipped from over 13% in his 2021 debut to 9% in 2022 as he chased pitches outside the zone less (down to 35% from 41%) and made above-average contact (82%, up from 75%). Kirilloff has also made plenty of loud contact at the big-league level (44% in 2021 and 45% last season), which should pair nicely with his solid contact rate. A key to the 25 year-old's power output will be whether he can trim the groundball rate, as that figure came in at 49% in 2021 and 56% in 2023; his minor-league track record indicates that something around 45% is possible. Based on his first-round pedigree, minor-league production, and underlying metrics in his limited MLB action to date, there's reason to think that Kirilloff can be a fantasy asset in 2023. Keep an eye on his status as spring training progresses, as he's yet to be cleared for Grapefruit League action but is nevertheless reportedly trending toward being ready for Opening Day.
Jesus Luzardo (SP-MIA) enters his age-25 season on the heels of a strong 2023 campaign in which he recorded a 3.32 ERA, 10.8 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 across 100.1 IP; an xFIP of 3.11, an xERA of 3.39, and a SIERA of 3.28 all suggest that his ERA was roughly where it should have been based on his performance. The southpaw did miss a chunk of the season as a result of a forearm strain sustained in August, but he returned from the IL in August to be even more dominant than he was before he suffered the injury; he logged a 3.03 ERA, 10 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.09 xFIP over 71.1 IP after the injury as opposed to a 4.03 ERA, 12.7 K/9, 5 BB/9, and 3.17 xFIP across 29 IP before the injury. In addition to harnessing his command down the stretch, Luzardo continued to demonstrate a strong ability to miss bats (14% swinging-strike rate and 70% contact rate on the season). While he doesn't exactly induce lots of grounders (40% groundball rate in 2022), Luzardo does call spacious Marlins Park his home field. While the pure ability is exciting from a fantasy standpoint, there is some risk attached to him, as he's yet to demonstrate that he can perform at a high level over the course of a full season and does have a significant track record of missing time due to injury. Even so, he seems undervalued when outlets like ESPN have him ranked outside of the top 50 at SP.
George Kirby (SP-SEA) enters his age-25 season coming off of an impressive rookie campaign in which he recorded a 3.39 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 1.5 BB/9 across 130 innings of work, with a 3.33 xFIP, 3.31 xERA, and 3.32 SIERA all suggesting that his surface numbers were legitimate. A 2019 first-round draft pick, Kirby is a strike-thrower who deploys mid-90s heat and a battery of solid secondary offerings. While his fastball is unlikely to generate tons of swings and misses because of its sinking action, Kirby's plus-plus command and ability to minimize the walks while keeping the ball in the yard (9% HR/FB and 0.9 HR/9 last season) will help both the ERA and WHIP categories. He also kept hard contact to a reasonable 38% clip per Statcast while inducing grounders at a healthy 46% clip and limiting liners to 16%. So, while he might not be a lock to put up a K/9 of 10+, he's already proven he can fan a batter an inning while recording a solid ERA and WHIP (1.21 last season). Kirby should be viewed as at least a #3 starter for fantasy rotations, with a strong possibility of establishing himself as a #2 by season's end.
Logan Gilbert (SP-SEA) fared well enough in his sophomore season, posting a 3.20 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and 2.4 BB/9 across 185.2 innings of work, with a 3.78 xFIP indicating that he benefited from some good luck; a 78% strand rate and 9% HR/FB - while not ridiculous - helped to suppress his ERA. Overall, the campaign was in some ways not quite as impressive as his rookie campaign, when Gilbert logged a 4.68 ERA with a 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9; a 4.19 xFIP was still high, but it indicated that he ran into some bad luck. His swinging-strike rate dipped from over 12% in 2021 to just under 11% last season while opposing hitters made more contact (79%, up from 75%). He also surrendered a lot of loud contact (46% per Statcast, up a touch from 45% the year prior) while the opposition ripped lots of liners (24%) and lofted plenty of flyballs (39%), not leaving much for grounders (37%). All things considered, Gilbert's mid-90s heat and solid repertoire of secondary offerings are exciting, but he's not quite lived up to the plus-plus scouting grade on his command and he's tended to give up a bit too much hard contact in the majors. He should be drafted as a #3-4 SP for fantasy, with upside to be a #2-3 type given his first-round pedigree, pure stuff, and home park.
Joe Ryan (SP-MIN) put together a strong first full season in the majors in 2022, posting a 3.55 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 across 147 innings of work. In doing so, he kept the hard hit-rate to a modest 35% per Statcast, generated swinging strikes at a decent 11% rate, and held opposing hitters to a slightly below-average contact rate of 77%. Although his xERA came in at 3.57, his 4.35 xFIP and 3.98 SIERA point to a .253 BABIP and 78% strand rate suppressing his ERA a bit. Ryan does call pitcher-friendly Target Field his home park, but it's nevertheless eyebrow raising to see that opposing hitters lofted flyballs and smoked liners at a combined 73% rate last season. Ultimately, Ryan has demonstrated an ability to fan about a hitter per inning while issuing walks at roughly a league-average rate and limiting loud contact despite a lack of overpowering stuff; he relies on a deceptive four-seamer rather than velocity. Reports indicate that Ryan has added a new slider and will use a split-finger pitch to replace his changeup, so that may help to advance his game in 2023. He should be drafted as a mid-rotation starter for fantasy in his age-26 season, although unlocking some of the tighter control that he showed in the minors (and is reflected in his scouting grades) would raise his ceiling.
Patrick Sandoval (SP-LAA) put together a 2022 campaign (2.91 ERA, 9.1 K/9, and 3.6 BB/9 across 87 IP) that in many ways resembled his 2021 performance (3.62 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 over 148.2 IP). His 3.67 xFIP - which was close to 2021's 3.79 xFIP and 3.62 ERA - does indicate that a combination of a 77% strand rate and a 6% HR/FB (after he logged a 16% in that department in 2021) suppressed his ERA a bit. Sandoval did, however, limit contact to a below-average 72% clip while keeping the hard contact to a modest 34% rate per Statcast while inducing grounders at a 47% clip. While his 13% swinging-strike rate was lower than the 15% he logged in 2021, it's still a solid figure for a SP. Ultimately, though, there is reason for fantasy owners to expect his ERA to regress this season because of Sandoval's below-average control (3.7 BB/9 through 311.2 career IP) and a likely correction of his HR/FB (14% career). He's probably more of a #3-4 SP for fantasy than a #2, as his ERA and K/9 alone might suggest; a 1.34 WHIP, after all, does not foster hope that he can replicate a sub-3 ERA.
Grayson Rodriguez (SP-BAL) is expected to make the Baltimore rotation on Opening Day, which is exciting for fantasy since MLB Pipeline ranks him as the #4 overall prospect in baseball and the top pitcher in the minors. Armed with a powerful heater and a repertoire of plus or better secondary offerings, the righty dominated at the Triple-A level in 2022, recording a 2.20 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 across 69.2 IP; 2.90 xFIP does indicate that a 4% HR/FB in particular suppressed his ERA a bit. His scouting grades do indicate that his command is about average, and his track record in the BB/9 department in the minors suggest that he will continue to issue a moderate amount of free passes. But the pure stuff and well-rounded repertoire are exciting, as Rodriguez should be able to log a K/9 north of 10 to go with quality ratios. One thing to keep in mind for 2023 is that the Orioles will likely manage his innings, as he tossed only 74.1 IP in the minors last year because of a lat strain. So, while he should be a fantasy contributor during the coming season, managers in redraft leagues shouldn't reach too far for him.
Jose Leclerc (RP-TEX) is currently the frontrunner to open the 2023 campaign as the Rangers' closer, although manager Bruce Bochy recently hedged by saying that the club's closer situation is "somewhat fluid." The 29 year-old righty returned to the club's bullpen last season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, and he was effective in compiling a 2.83 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 4 BB/9 across 47.2 innings of work in which he recorded 7 saves and 4 holds. Encouragingly, his average fastball velocity came in at 96 mph, which is right where it was in 2019, while he logged a stellar 17% swinging-strike rate and an impressive 63% contact rate. Leclerc has always possessed shaky control (5.3 BB/9 across 236.2 career IP), so that 4 BB/9 can't be simply attributed to him coming off of TJS. A 4.38 xFIP should nevertheless raise questions about whether he will be able to hold onto the closer role as the 2023 campaign unfolds, but Leclerc simply limited hard contact (33% per Statcast) while missing lots of bats. It helps that his most likely competitors for closing duties in Texas - Jonathan Hernandez, Joe Barlow, and Brock Burke - have not shown that they have the consistency to excel in that role.
Paul Sewald (RP-SEA) was not quite as dominant in 2022 as he was in his 2021 breakout campaign, but earned 20 saves while logging a 2.67 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.58 xFIP across 64 IP (compare with a 3.06 ERA, 14.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and 3.00 xFIP over 64.2 IP in 2021). He underwent procedures on both of his heels as well as had loose bodies removed from his elbow during the offseason, but is expected to be ready to go for Opening Day. While his pure stuff is not overwhelming (93-mph average heater), Sewald effectively mixes that offering (51% usage) up with an 83-mph slider (49% usage), with both earning plus pitch values. He misses plenty of bats (15% swinging-strike rate), keeps contact to a below-average 70% clip, limits hard contact (34% per Statcast), and slashed his BB/9 from 3.3 in 2021 to 2.4 in 2022. The main concern is that Seattle divided up save opportunities last season, although Sewald earned the most (20) while the likes of Diego Castillo (7) and Andres Munoz (4) also saw chances, and could do so again this year. So, while Sewald is likely to earn the most saves for the Mariners in 2023, he should not be drafted too high.
