Aaron Bummer- RP- CHW- Rise Value- Bummer picked up his first save of 2022, allowing hits to the first 2 hitters he faced but then striking out the next 3 batters in his 9th inning of work. It was a definite improvement on his outing Friday, when he was charged with 2 runs on 2 hits and a walk in 0.2 IP. Bummer did record 2 Ks on Friday, making all of his 2022 outs so far via the strikeout. He did end up with a hold despite the subpar performance. With Liam Hendriks tossing 33 pitches on Friday, Tony LaRussa turned yesterday's 3-run lead over to Bummer. Bummer earned 21 holds in 2021, when he posted a 3.51 ERA and 2.80 xFIP. In leagues where holds count, Bummer is an asset. At least in the early going, he appears to be the main alternative to Hendriks. In 7 Cactus League IP this spring, Bummer didn't walk a batter. His strikeout power is there is the early going. If he can keep that (11.98 K/9 in 2021) and improve his control from last season (4.63 BB/9) then his value will increase. Bummer was started on 7% of Yahoo teams so is probably available.
Josh Fleming- RP- TB- Rise Value- The Rays have a couple of starters (Drew Rasmussen and Luis Patino) who are likely to be on short leashes for a while. Fleming will get chances to follow them and get to cross the 5th inning line to earn a win. That's what happened yesterday as he threw 3.1 scoreless IP after Rasmussen exited after the 4th inning. Fleming allowed 3 hits, walked none, and struck out 5. Fleming's role as a long reliever on a regular basis will make his IP higher than the usual reliever and combined with opportunities for wins boosts his value. As a reliever in 2021 he posted a 3.75 ERA, although is K/9 was only 4.88. Overall, Fleming had a 55.7% GB%, so he relies on inducing ground balls.
Nolan Arenado- 3B- STL- Great Player-Arenado didn't' suffer much moving from Colorado to St. Louis last season. His .255 average was well below his .292 career mark, but it was almost identical to the .253 he put up in his last season with the Rockies. The main factor? In 2020 Arenado had a .241 BABIP and in 2021 it was .249. Those numbers are also well below his career .292 BABIP. Arenado's Statcast numbers were also close to his career norms, with an EV of 89.0, LA of 20.0, Barrel% of 6.7%, and HardHit% of 37.1%. Another thing that was familiar was Arenado's trend of platoon splits. For his career he has slashed .318/.390/.603 against southpaws and .278/.329/.512 against RH pitching. Last season Arenado's splits against lefthanders and right-handers were .295/.341/.589 and .245/.306/.472 respectively. We are still in micro sample size territory but he is slashing .625/.667/.1.375 despite only 1 of his 9 PAs coming against southpaws. In DFS plays there were often better options against right-handers. If he is able to at least exhibit evenness (as in 2019) then his value goes up every day.
Keegan Akin- RP- BAL- Hot- Akin threw an astounding 27 of his 31 pitches for strikes yesterday in 3 IP of work. He gave up 1 hits, walked no one, and struck out 3. In 2021 Akin was hit hard and often in his appearances with Baltimore, posting a 6.63 ERA and 1.61 HR/9 in 95 IP. Akin threw his fastball 57.2% of the time and it seemed like batters caught up with it the longer he was on the mound. Yesterday, Akin threw 14 fastballs, less than half of his pitches. He also threw 9 changeups, a much higher percentage than the 19.5% changeups he threw in 2021. The Orioles will keep anyone who has even borderline (or in the case of Akin last season, below borderline) production. Another thing that would be in the mix if Akin's pitch selection produces better results is that Baltimore could trade him to a contender. Keep a watch on Akin's performances to see if he merits value as a sleeper.
Seiya Suzuki- OF- CHC- FYI- Suzuki has had a hot couple of games to start his major league career. After going 1-for-3 with a walk yesterday he is slashing .400/.556/.400 with 3 RBI. Suzuki has both walked and struck out 3 times in his 9 PAs. In the Cactus League he struck out 7 times on 17 ABs but only walked twice. For the past 2 Japanese League seasons Suzuki was within 1 of having the same numbers of strikeouts and walks, so this is not unprecedented for him. He looks like a three-true-outcome kind of hitter which could end up suppressing his average. In leagues that count OBP he will still have decent value from the walks.
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