One of our staples within the Fantistics Draft Advisory product is our annual Comeback, Breakout, and Sleepers analysis. This is where we take a look at some of the players have fallen out of fantasy favor or have been looked less favorably by others (consensus). Although there inevitably is some conjecture involved, we base our projections on proven Sabermetric indicators (see our approximately 75% success rate in predicting the statistical direction for players). Our goal is to beat the herd mentality or Average Draft Position, which inherently will produce average fantasy results. The following section highlights the players that we believe will outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) by 1 or more rounds in 2022.
One of the features in the Fantistics Draft Advisory software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, RTSports and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to more closely match your draft, this also allows the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Knowing what your draft room sees or thinks of other players is almost like seeing the other owners cards during a poker game. This allows us to also gauge what players Fantistics ranks higher in value (FDP), verses their ADP. Which in turn allows Draft Advisory user, in some instances, to possibly wait an extra round or two, further enhancing our Value Above Mean ideology.
What you will see in the last 3 columns to the right are the players latest NFBC ADP, the Fantistics Draft Position (FDP), and the last column represents the Delta between the two. As an example, 1B Yuli Gurriel has an 17th Round ADP, but Fantistics values him as a 9th round player. In this case it behooves you to wait a few rounds before selecting him. In taking a similar approach through the rest of your draft, you will maximize value...and that's how drafts are won.
The FPI column represents our Fantasy Production Indicator. The higher number the better, as it measures production on a per plate appearance or inning pitched approach. The EAV$ column represents the Expected Auction Value for each player that utlitizing a 5x5 Roto format (you should of course use the projections software to compute values and rankings relative to your league, as most leagues have variations that change the rankings)
Below is a sample of Undervalued Players at the Outfield position. There are another 125 players in the mid and late rounds that advocate in the Fantistics Draft Advisory program:
Robert, Luis Robert was a high profile international signing for the White Sox, out of Cuba in 2017, a 26 million dollar deal. He made scouts swoon in his workouts before his signing. He's 6-3/185 with enticing power, speed, and athleticism but little was known about how he'd handle quality pitching. What we know is that he has 20-HR power (because almost everyone does and he shows a reasonably-average amount of raw power) and he has double-plus speed that could make him a near-elite speed contributor (and truth be told I am underselling his physical speed a bit just to be conservative for the time being). | The 24-year-old has blistered the ball since returning from a right hip flexor injury that cost him over three months of the season. Robert has hit .373 with seven homers in 155 plate appearances since returning to the field on August 9th. The youngster has significantly cut down on his strikeouts this season (20.0% K%) from his inaugural 2020 campaign (32.2% K%) and is slashing an impressive .333/.567 as a result. As long as Robert can stay on the field, he will be an electrifying player to watch and should be a significant contributor for fantasy purposes as well. - dnachtigal 2021 BABIP: 0.394(0.094)| Contact Rate: 74%(12%)| HR Distance: 414ft(-8)| HR Max BBS: 117.7()| HardHit%: 35.6%(5.8%)| Avg Velocity: 91(3.3)| Elevation%: 13.8(-2.9)| Barrels%: 12.5%(-0.3%)| HR/FB%: 16%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.1)| EYE: 0.23(-0.04)| ISO: 22.9%(2.6%)
Marte, Starling 03/20/2022 Marte is managing left oblique soreness; and it is unclear if he will face the Nationals on April 7. | The 32 year-old had a strong 2021 campaign, finishing with .310 with 12 homers, 55 RBI, 89 runs scored, and 47 stolen bases across 526 plate appearances split between Miami and Oakland. Marte's power is certainly down from the 20+ homers he logged back in 2018 and 2019, but he's made up for that with his wheels, as steals are a scarcer commodity than dingers in today's game. That hasn't been for a lack of hard contact, as his 37% rate per Statcast is just north of his career average (36% and not far off the 38% clip he logged in 2018 and 2019), but Marte has played much of the season in spacious ballparks and his 25% flyball rate comes in just under his career average (27%). - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.372(0.053)| Contact Rate: 78%(1%)| HR Distance: 418ft(7)| HR Max BBS: 112.9()| HardHit%: 32.9%(3.1%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.6)| Elevation%: 4.6(-1.9)| Barrels%: 8.4%(2.0%)| HR/FB%: 14%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.3(0.4)| EYE: 0.43(0.14)| ISO: 14.8%(-0.1%)
Mullins, Cedric The 26 year-old is finished hitting .291 with 30 dingers, 91 runs scored, 59 RBI, and 30 steals across 675 plate appearances on the campaign. His .322 BABIP isn't exactly ridiculous for a guy with his kind of wheels, and he fans at just an 18% clip while drawing walks at a solid 9% rate. Mullins has posted a career-high hard-hit rate of 39% per Statcast to go with a career-high 42% flyball rate. After never recording a HR/FB north of 10% in the majors, his comes in at 16% in 2021, and that could very well regress in 2022 given his merely above-average hard contact rate. But given his propensity for making contact (82%), his speed, and his ability to draw some walks, Mullins is likely to remain atop the Baltimore lineup next season. But he seems more likely to be a 20-25 homer-type guy rather than a 30+. Regardless, he should be a solid #2-type OF for fantasy with #1 OF upside because of his power-speed combo. - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.322(-0.028)| Contact Rate: 82%(2%)| HR Distance: 397ft(-5)| HR Max BBS: 109.7()| HardHit%: 33.2%(11.7%)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.8)| Elevation%: 14.8(-0.8)| Barrels%: 8.1%(5.3%)| HR/FB%: 16%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.3)| EYE: 0.47(0.25)| ISO: 22.7%(9.1%)
Hernandez, Teoscar Hernandez may be overlooked to the casual fan but if you haven't taken notice it is time as Hernandez continues to be a big-time slugger for the Blue Jays. Hernandez has always shown solid power throughout his career but started hitting for the average the past 2 season hitting .289 last year and currently sporting a .300 batting average this year. The big change is Hernandez has shifted his game slightly where he is hitting more line drives and less flyballs - he has a 27% + line drive rate the last two seasons while he has seen his flyball rate decrease just about every season since he entered the league. While this has caused a dip in his HR/FB % the slight approach changes to taking what is given to him has seen his OPS increase from the high .700s in 2018/2019 to the high 800s/ low 900s the past 2 years. Hernandez may still not get the respect in fantasy next year he deserves but he is a legit .850 OPS at a minimum player with 100+ RBI potential. - dbertolino 2021 BABIP: 0.352(0.004)| Contact Rate: 70%(4%)| HR Distance: 405ft(-13)| HR Max BBS: 115.7()| HardHit%: 36.6%(-12.2%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-1.5)| Elevation%: 13.1(-2.2)| Barrels%: 13.9%(-3.9%)| HR/FB%: 22%(-11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.1)| EYE: 0.24(0.02)| ISO: 22.8%(-6.1%)
O'Neill, Tyler Tyler O'Neill had a breakout season in 2021 when he posted a 34 HR/80 RBI/89 RS/15 SB/ .286 line in 2021. A closer look shows that his velocity on balls in play and Barrel Rates all point to a deserving stats line. The only concerns are the .286 BA, which was built on a unsustainable 366 BABIP. Upside potential is present in the RBI count in 2022. | 2021 BABIP: 0.366(0.177)| Contact Rate: 68%(0%)| HR Distance: 414ft(10)| HR Max BBS: 113.1()| HardHit%: 42.8%(9.8%)| Avg Velocity: 93(5.0)| Elevation%: 17.8(2.7)| Barrels%: 17.9%(9.7%)| HR/FB%: 26%(9%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.2)| EYE: 0.23(-0.12)| ISO: 27.4%(8.7%)
Buxton, Byron It's hard to know what to make of him looking to 2022. Could he have a huge year on the cusp of free agency? Sure, as a former No. 2 overall draft pick, the talent is clearly there. From April 1 through May 6, we saw that talent, as in 24 games, Buxton hit .370/.408/.772 with nine homers and five steals. However, in his last 26 games with hip and finger injuries mixed in, Buxton's line is just .212/.261/.413, including a 29:4 K:BB. Perhaps this is a guy who moves to a new team, gets a better strength training program, avoids injuries, and suddenly becomes a perennial .300/.400/.500 guy. Keep in mind though, that this is a guy who made his MLB debut in 2015 and has played in 100+ games ONCE. - dregan 2021 BABIP: 0.344(0.103)| Contact Rate: 72%(-1%)| HR Distance: 417ft(8)| HR Max BBS: 115.6()| HardHit%: 42.8%(7.4%)| Avg Velocity: 93(1.3)| Elevation%: 13.3(-10.3)| Barrels%: 17.9%(4.4%)| HR/FB%: 29%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.3)| EYE: 0.21(0.15)| ISO: 34.1%(1.8%)
Castellanos, Nick Nick had a career season in 2021 with 34 HR/100RBI/95 R?309 BA. The 340 BABIP fueled the 309 BA, and although he typically has a higher babip because of a well above average 49% 95MPH+%, the BA is likely to drop in 2022. The power number appear inflated as well, as his 23% HR/FB rate is about 10 points higher than it's been. 2021 BABIP: 0.340(0.003)| Contact Rate: 71%(-4%)| HR Distance: 399ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 111.9(9.8)| HardHit%: 40.4%(-2.3%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.8)| Elevation%: 14.0(0.1)| Barrels%: 10.6%(-0.6%)| HR/FB%: 23%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.1)| EYE: 0.34(0.05)| ISO: 26.7%(3.1%)
Marte, Ketel Ketel Marte is a star. . If any sort of injury discount exists on him entering 2022 please be sure to take it. He's posted a 89th percentile hard hit rate and a 99th percentile xBA. He pairs that with a well above average strikeout rate and whiff rate. The only thing here is you wish he might walk a bit more, but it's still at 8.1% which is far from bad. - jsperry | 2021 BABIP: 0.352(0.041)| Contact Rate: 85%(-3%)| HR Distance: 410ft(23)| HR Max BBS: 116.0()| HardHit%: 39.9%(7.4%)| Avg Velocity: 91(1.9)| Elevation%: 10.3(0.3)| Barrels%: 8.9%(5.2%)| HR/FB%: 16%(12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.0)| EYE: 0.52(0.19)| ISO: 21.4%(9.2%)
Bryant, Kris Two Words: Coors Field. The 29 year-old has to some degree returned to form in 2021 after a down 2020 campaign, batting .265 with 25 homers 73 RBI, 86 runs scored, and 10 stolen bases across 586 plate appearances. His strikeout rate is back down to his career average (23%) while his hard-hit rate has rebounded to 39% per Statcast (38% career, just 32% in 2020). - ahodge | 2021 BABIP: 0.313(0.049)| Contact Rate: 74%(2%)| HR Distance: 391ft(-29)| HR Max BBS: 110.4()| HardHit%: 36.1%(5.3%)| Avg Velocity: 88(2.1)| Elevation%: 15.1(-5.6)| Barrels%: 10.3%(4.8%)| HR/FB%: 17%(7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.1)| EYE: 0.46(0.16)| ISO: 21.6%(7.1%)
Reynolds, Bryan Reynolds has always been able to hit for average, but the power has really emerged this season and the 26-year-old outfielder is turning into a deep-league keeper. Reynolds' .212 ISO is 23 points higher than his previous career best and his wRC+ stands at an encouraging 136. His more selective approach at the plate has contributed to an improved EYE and a better option for pitches to swing at. He is chasing pitches less and so his swings are simply more productive. Always a strong fastball hitter, Reynolds has improved his power against breaking/off-speed pitches. He has seven home runs against non-fastballs as opposed to only two in 2019. Underrated and undervalued, Reynolds is a savvy fantasy target to bolster the outfield. - bkamerman 2021 BABIP: 0.345(0.114)| Contact Rate: 78%(2%)| HR Distance: 410ft(1)| HR Max BBS: 112.7()| HardHit%: 34.5%(-3.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.9)| Elevation%: 13.4(3.2)| Barrels%: 10.4%(0.3%)| HR/FB%: 15%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(-0.2)| EYE: 0.63(0.26)| ISO: 22.0%(5.2%)
Bellinger, Cody Across 350 plate appearances, Bellinger had a disastrous season, hitting just .165 with 10 homers, 36 RBI, and 3 steals. A 26% strikeout rate that is his highest since his 27% clip during his rookie campaign back in 2017 (under 18% in 2018 and 2019) was certainly part of the problem, although his 95MPH+% rate plummeted to 35% per Statcast (42% career) and he posted a career-high 49% flyball rate (not a great combination. His performance in 2021 is especially concerning given his final line in 2020, which included a .239 average (although the power was there, with 12 dingers in 243 plate appearances). Ultimately, Bellinger is just 26 and is only a couple of seasons removed from a .305 average, 47 bombs, 115 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. So, fantasy owners may have to risk taking him somewhat early (but not too early!) in 2022 drafts in hopes that he rediscovers something of his 2019 form. Given the peripherals in 2021 it's tough to advise taking the chance unless one can draft him at a considerable discount. - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.196(-0.106)| Contact Rate: 72%(-6%)| HR Distance: 381ft(-24)| HR Max BBS: 107.4()| HardHit%: 30.8%(-18.4%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.4)| Elevation%: 22.2(4.6)| Barrels%: 7.1%(-5.9%)| HR/FB%: 9%(-15%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.1)| EYE: 0.33(-0.55)| ISO: 13.7%(-18.7%)
Yelich, Christian Yelich has had one of the more disappointing seasons across the league as he is in line for his second consecutive season of posting a sub .800 OPS following up back-to-back 1.000 OPS years. 2020 was simply a mess as his K rate skyrocketed to 30% and when he was able to make contact, he has a career low .246 babip. I think there was a bit of pressing by Yelich last year after a slow start as he still hit the ball hard (56% 95MPH+% rate) but just piled up the Ks and was very unlucky in the field. 2021 felt little different though. Yelich has course corrected a bit with a .324 babip but his hard-hit rate has fallen 5% to 35% and his exit velocity has severely dropped to 91 mph - a 3 mph drop from last year. His strikeouts are down to 25% but it's still higher than we have seen in his MVP seasons. Yelich has also been quiet on the basepaths, swiping just 9 bases in 12 attempts. You must wonder if he was not 100% fully healthy, especially when looking at the drop in some of his hard-hit numbers and the fact he hasn't been running as much. Give Yelich the offseason to rest and let's see how he does in the Playoffs - and keep an eye on how he does early in the spring to see if he can get back to MVP form. - dbertolino 2021 BABIP: 0.321(-0.034)| Contact Rate: 78%(4%)| HR Distance: 409ft(2)| HR Max BBS: 114.9(9.2)| HardHit%: 34.9%(-15.9%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-2.1)| Elevation%: 2.8(-8.4)| Barrels%: 7.6%(-8.2%)| HR/FB%: 13%(-20%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.3(1.1)| EYE: 0.62(-0.06)| ISO: 12.5%(-21.7%)
Winker, Jesse Winker was sidelined with an intercostal strain for a portion of 2021. The 28 year-old amassed a .305 average, 24 homers, 71 RBI, and 77 runs scored across 485 plate appearances on the campaign, good for an excellent wRC+ of 153. Winker has never posted a wRC+ below 113 since making his MLB debut back in 2017, but it's worth nothing that his 485 plate appearances this season is easily a career high. So, fantasy owners will have to bear that in mind on draft day 2022. But he temptation to take him early will be high, as Winker hit for power but not a great average in 2020 (.255 with 12 homers across 183 PA), fanning at a career-high 25% clip before regaining contact (82% in 2021, up from 74% in 2020) and slashing his strikeout rate (16% in 2021, 25% in 2020) while maintaining power output (.252 ISO in 2021, .289 in 2020). He's an exciting player for 2022 but a risky one based on his inability to put together a full season to date - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.324(0.041)| Contact Rate: 82%(8%)| HR Distance: 406ft(11)| HR Max BBS: 113.4()| HardHit%: 36.5%(-12.5%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-1.5)| Elevation%: 10.8(0.3)| Barrels%: 11.2%(-2.3%)| HR/FB%: 21%(-19%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(-0.4)| EYE: 0.71(0.10)| ISO: 25.1%(-3.8%)
Schwarber, Kyle Schwarber blasted 32 HRs and drove in 71 RBIs in only 113 games. He's batting .295 since joining the Red Sox, where he's benefitted from playing half his games in Fenway Park. With Schwarber set to hit free agency this winter at age 28, the All-Star slugger has set himself up for a nice payday with the best offensive season of his career. While his power and patience are proven skills, it remains to be seen if he can replicate his strong batting average from this season considering that his .306 BABIP is 31 points higher than his career mark. - tmaher 2021 BABIP: 0.306(0.087)| Contact Rate: 74%(0%)| HR Distance: 414ft(8)| HR Max BBS: 116.6()| HardHit%: 39.1%(-1.7%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-0.5)| Elevation%: 15.4(6.6)| Barrels%: 17.5%(6.3%)| HR/FB%: 29%(3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.5)| EYE: 0.50(0.05)| ISO: 28.8%(8.4%)
Reyes, Franmil The 26 year-old slugger has put together one of his strongest big-league seasons, finishing with a .259 average to go with 30 dingers and 85 RBI across 466 plate appearances. Reyes' wRC+ of 131 is on pace to be his career best in that department. However, it's worth noting that his strikeout rate is up to a career-high 32% this season even though his swinging-strike rate is down slightly to 14%, partly because he's chasing pitches less often (30% o-swing%) and making contact with more of those pitches (54% o-contact%). As usual, Reyes is making lots of hard contact (49%), and that works well with his career-high 38% flyball rate. He might not be an asset in the average department, but he doesn't exactly hurt you there while offering tremendous power. - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.314(0.035)| Contact Rate: 68%(3%)| HR Distance: 414ft(7)| HR Max BBS: 114.9()| HardHit%: 43.8%(-3.5%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-1.3)| Elevation%: 9.7(0.2)| Barrels%: 16.9%(2.1%)| HR/FB%: 31%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.0)| EYE: 0.29(-0.01)| ISO: 26.8%(0.5%)
Meadows, Austin The 106 RBI total, which is a career-high for him, is rather impressive given his mediocre .233 batting average. He's been a monster with runners in scoring position, posting a .978 OPS in those situations entering play on Saturday versus a meager .634 OPS with the bases empty. 18 of his 27 long balls have also come with men on base, which has helped inflate his RBI total as well. While it's not realistic to expect another 100-RBI campaign from him next year, he remains a strong power source spending his prime years in the middle of a dangerous Rays lineup, which bodes well for continued success in fantasy. - tmaher 2021 BABIP: 0.249(-0.039)| Contact Rate: 77%(4%)| HR Distance: 394ft(-15)| HR Max BBS: 110.3()| HardHit%: 34.9%(-2.0%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.0)| Elevation%: 21.7(-2.7)| Barrels%: 8.7%(1.6%)| HR/FB%: 13%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.5(0.1)| EYE: 0.48(0.14)| ISO: 22.4%(5.7%)
Baddoo, Akil Most people may remember Baddoo from his memorable opening week of the MLB season where he seemingly did everything. Of the course of the year the 23-year-old Rookie has since had some highs and lows and he got his first taste of the show but overall it has been quite the success as Baddoo produced a ..251/.436 line with a league leading 7 triples, 13 HR and 18 SB. Remember - he made the jump all the way from A+ where he played in just 29 games in 2019 to the big leagues in 2021 - so I would say his line is pretty impressive for a player who received 131 plate appearances over a 2 year period against only low level pitching. He certainly has some work to do as it remains to be seen if his .335 babip will continue next year and his 33 % hard hit rate and 86 mph Exit velo are nothing to write home about - but the power and speed are there and playing in Detroit gives him a shot to continue to hit gaps as he did with his triples It would be nice to see him add some doubles power next year to round out his game. - dbertolino 2021 BABIP: 0.335(0.335)| Contact Rate: 72%(72%)| HR Distance: 385ft(385)| HR Max BBS: 111.8()| HardHit%: 31.3%(31.3%)| Avg Velocity: 86(86.0)| Elevation%: 13.8(13.8)| Barrels%: 8.8%(8.8%)| HR/FB%: 11%(11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(1.0)| EYE: 0.37(-0.03)| ISO: 17.7%(17.7%)
Verdugo, Alex Verdugo finished 2021 with a.289 BA, 13 HR, 88 R, 63 RBI, and 6 SB. The batting average is something that he was known for coming into the year. He has above-average plate skills (15% K and 9% BB) and doesn't chase balls out of the zone often (28% ) O-swing. The issue with Verdugo from a fantasy perspective is the power. He hits the ball hard (44% 95MPH+) but not at the right angles (7% Barrels and 8% Elevation). Until he hits the ball in the air more often, he is unlikely to hit for more power which is going to cap his fantasy value as someone who provides batting average and runs scored but not much else. He is just 25-years-old with the ability to control the zone and make contact, so the power should develop as he continues to make adjustments at the major league level. Verdugo has a nice floor for these same reasons and you can see the ceiling with a small tweak to his launch angle. - pdouble 2021 BABIP: 0.327(-0.044)| Contact Rate: 84%(0%)| HR Distance: 402ft(22)| HR Max BBS: 110.8()| HardHit%: 30.8%(-1.7%)| Avg Velocity: 90(3.0)| Elevation%: 7.7(1.8)| Barrels%: 7.3%(0.9%)| HR/FB%: 10%(-4%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.7(-0.2)| EYE: 0.53(0.15)| ISO: 13.7%(-3.2%)
Renfroe, Hunter The 29 year-old slugger has enjoyed a rebound season in his first with Boston, as he now owns a .259 average to go with 31 homers and 96 runs scored across 572 plate appearances. Renfroe's average may be nothing amazing, but it's a career-best for him, and his homer total is just shy of the 33 he hit with San Diego back in 2019. There's never been any question about his power, as Renfroe has now surpassed 25 dingers in each full(ish) season in the majors (4 times), but his strikeout issues (27% career strikeout rate) have been reduced a bit in 2021 (22%) while he's logged a career-best 45% hard-hit rate. So, he's not simply producing because of a move to the more hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park. Renfroe is swinging and missing less often than usual (11%) while making more contact on pitches inside the zone (77%). There are indicators of real improvement that Renfroe should carry into 2022. - ahodge | 2021 BABIP: 0.284(0.045)| Contact Rate: 77%(5%)| HR Distance: 413ft(2)| HR Max BBS: 116.4()| HardHit%: 36.0%(-10.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.2)| Elevation%: 15.6(-3.5)| Barrels%: 14.4%(2.4%)| HR/FB%: 18%(-6%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(0.1)| EYE: 0.34(0.04)| ISO: 24.2%(-3.1%)
Rodriquez, Julio *Top 100 Prospect | Hitter Rank- 1 POS: RF Current level-AA Expected MLB-2022 HR/FB-26% K%-19.4% SwStr-12.1% wAVG-347 wOBA-442 SLUG-560
Garcia, Adolis Garcia finished 2021 with a solid 31 HR/90 RBI. However it was a dreadful 2nd half for Garcia who hit .208 with a .617 OPS in 65 games this half, after hitting .270 with an .840 OPS before the break. Unfortunately, the more recent numbers may be more indicative of the type of player he is, as his xBA for the season is at .216 and his .xSLG is .408. He has also struck out at a 31.3% clip. Garcia has power and has a strong 91.1 EV this season, but he seems like he may be more of an all-or-nothing slugger who can hit 30 HR's, rather than an all-around asset. - mgreenfeld 2021 BABIP: 0.306(0.106)| Contact Rate: 68%(-7%)| HR Distance: 398ft(398)| HR Max BBS: 112.4()| HardHit%: 38.9%(18.9%)| Avg Velocity: 91(6.8)| Elevation%: 14.7(0.4)| Barrels%: 11.5%(11.5%)| HR/FB%: 20%(20%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(-0.2)| EYE: 0.16(0.16)| ISO: 21.1%(15.2%)
Garcia, Avisail Finished 2021 with 29 HRs and 86 RBIs. Most importantly he was productive against both LHP and RHP. Career high 46% 95+ MPH on balls hit in play. That said his 26% HR/FB rate is elevated and likely to back off into the 20% range. 2021 BABIP: 0.291(-0.049)| Contact Rate: 68%(-1%)| HR Distance: 407ft(-2)| HR Max BBS: 116.7(9.4)| HardHit%: 37.4%(-2.7%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.9)| Elevation%: 9.3(-0.5)| Barrels%: 12.2%(0.5%)| HR/FB%: 26%(9%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(0.0)| EYE: 0.31(0.06)| ISO: 22.8%(4.6%)
Gallo, Joey Gallo hit his typical boatload of homeruns with 39 in 2021, but it came at a price for his fantasy owners that consider BA. The .199 BA is a huge drain in 5x5 leagues, but that said his 246 BABIP was below his norm, and even with the shift, there should be improve in his BA ahead. with his high 18% walk rate, he does contribute more than his BA indicates for both fantasy purposes and real world purposes, as his RS are excellent for a hitter that is below 250 in BA. | 2021 BABIP: 0.246(-0.122)| Contact Rate: 63%(3%)| HR Distance: 408ft(-10)| HR Max BBS: 115.1()| HardHit%: 37.8%(-14.1%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-1.5)| Elevation%: 22.7(2.4)| Barrels%: 18.5%(-7.9%)| HR/FB%: 27%(-10%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(0.1)| EYE: 0.52(0.06)| ISO: 25.9%(-8.5%)
Grossman, Robbie Grossman is an absolute no-brainer in OBP-based leagues....he's probably an OF2 or OF3 in those formats, but even taking into account the below average AVG he's still giving you enough production with 23 HR, 20 SB, and 88 R while staying completely healthy to this point. This newfound level of pop is supported by career-high LA and barrel rates, and while he is almost certainly maxed out at this rate, it's good enough. I think he's a very underrated bat that should remain a very solid play heading into the final year of a 2-year deal in Detroit in 2022. - sdombroske. 2021 BABIP: 0.286(0.019)| Contact Rate: 81%(-3%)| HR Distance: 391ft(12)| HR Max BBS: 110.9(10.9)| HardHit%: 27.3%(0.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(-1.2)| Elevation%: 21.1(5.9)| Barrels%: 7.6%(2.1%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-4%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(-0.4)| EYE: 0.63(0.08)| ISO: 17.6%(-6.5%)
Benintendi, Andrew The 27-year-old has had his share of ups and downs throughout his MLB career, but his hot finish to 2021 could bode well for his performance in 2022 and beyond. Regaining his plate discipline will be key, however, after watching his walk rate crater to 6.2 percent this season -- well below his career 10.5 percent walk rate coming into the season. Regardless, it's encouraging to see that the talent is still there for the former first-round draft pick. - tmaher | Andrew is trending well in hard hit rates and average velocity, which should bring his 11% HR/FB rate closer to 13% in 2022.2021 BABIP: 0.309(0.127)| Contact Rate: 80%(10%)| HR Distance: 391ft(2)| HR Max BBS: 107.6()| HardHit%: 35.0%(8.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(4.5)| Elevation%: 15.4(6.8)| Barrels%: 8.9%(4.6%)| HR/FB%: 11%(11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(-0.6)| EYE: 0.37(-0.28)| ISO: 16.6%(14.0%)
Ozuna, Marcell Marcell Ozuna (OF-ATL) missed a significant portion of the 2021 season following an arrest for domestic violence and fractured fingers. He had scuffled to open the 2021 campaign, batting just .213 with 7 homers and 26 RBI across 208 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 75 attests to his struggles at the dish, as his hard-hit rate was down to 40% per Statcast (45% since 2015). Overall, his batted-ball profile looks pretty typical beyond the quality of contact, as his average exit velocity of under 90mph is a career low (average over 91mph). His 22% strikeout rate was on par with his career average, so making contact wasn't the issue. If anything, he was making too much contact with pitches outside of the zone (64% o-contact% in 2021, 58% career). Coming on the heels of a strong 2020 (.338, 18 homers, and 56 RBI across 267 plate appearances), Ozuna's down 2021 is a bit surprising and should not necessarily deter fantasy owners on draft day 2022 provided he is cleared to return to action. - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.244(-0.015)| Contact Rate: 75%(0%)| HR Distance: 423ft(20)| HR Max BBS: 114.3(8.7)| HardHit%: 28.2%(-19.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-2.1)| Elevation%: 14.5(1.0)| Barrels%: 9.9%(-2.7%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-10%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.3)| EYE: 0.41(-0.13)| ISO: 14.3%(-8.8%)
Conforto, Michael Conforto was a major disappointment hitting .232 with 14 HR, 52 R, 55 RBI, and 1 SB in 125 GP. His plate skills are better than the shortened season (22% K and 12% BB) but a .412 BABIP vs. .274 BABIP will cause major regression in his batting average. His O-swing is still the same as it has been (28%) for most of his career. He has above-average Statcast numbers (9% Barrels, 40% HardHIt, and 111.3 mph maxEV). All of this paints the picture of someone that bounces back in 2022 as there are no signs of decline for the 28-year-old outfielder other than poor luck on balls in play. - pdouble 2021 BABIP: 0.276(-0.014)| Contact Rate: 78%(3%)| HR Distance: 408ft(6)| HR Max BBS: 111.3()| HardHit%: 36.8%(0.3%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.3)| Elevation%: 13.2(-2.5)| Barrels%: 9.2%(-2.7%)| HR/FB%: 14%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.4)| EYE: 0.57(0.01)| ISO: 15.2%(-8.5%)
Happ, Ian 03/16/2022 Happ is on the mend from a procedure to clean up his right elbow; but it is anticipated that he will face the Brewers on April 7. | Ian Happ logged a .226 average to go with 25 big flies, 66 RBI, and 9 steals across 535 plate appearances (wRC+ of 103), after batting .258 with 12 dingers, 28 RBI, and a steal over 231 plate appearances last season (130 wRC+). His strikeout rate is up to nearly 30% while his hard-hit rate is down from last year's 48% to 41%, per Statcast. Happ cuts and misses a good bit (15%) and making contact at pitches inside of the zone (79% z-swing%) is not a strong suit. There's still a chance that he blossoms, but so far his rookie campaign back in 2017 (.253 with 24 homers, 68 RBI, and 8 steals across 413 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of 114) currently stands as his strongest full(ish) MLB season. - ahodge 2021 BABIP: 0.281(-0.036)| Contact Rate: 70%(3%)| HR Distance: 402ft(17)| HR Max BBS: 112.1()| HardHit%: 34.3%(-1.7%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.6)| Elevation%: 9.9(0.9)| Barrels%: 10.9%(0.6%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.0)| EYE: 0.40(-0.08)| ISO: 20.8%(-3.9%)
Pollock, AJ Pollock enjoyed one of his best major league seasons, given the limited ABs. He slashed .297/.351/.516 and his .366 wOBA is his best since 2015. His 11.9% SwStr% and 37.9% O-Swing% are career-highs, but his K% didn't spike. At 34, with a history of injuries, it's difficult to project a full season for him. 2021 BABIP: 0.326(0.049)| Contact Rate: 77%(-2%)| HR Distance: 405ft(1)| HR Max BBS: 111.2(9.1)| HardHit%: 37.6%(-4.2%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.7)| Elevation%: 12.0(-1.0)| Barrels%: 11.1%(0.6%)| HR/FB%: 18%(-8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.0)| EYE: 0.38(0.11)| ISO: 23.9%(-5.2%)
Hernandez, Enrique Hernandez found himself as an everyday player in 2021 and he had a decent season with 20HR/60 RBI/84 R/.250 BA. There is upside in the RBI department, but as long as he leads off, it's not going to carry the day. That said his heavy FB rate are a bit of a drain on his BA, however the 19% K rate makes up for the gap. There is some upside in his 11% HR/FB rate, so we could see more HRs from him in 2022. 2021 BABIP: 0.278(0.018)| Contact Rate: 78%(-1%)| HR Distance: 392ft(11)| HR Max BBS: 111.3(9.2)| HardHit%: 35.6%(1.7%)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.3)| Elevation%: 17.9(1.7)| Barrels%: 8.4%(1.1%)| HR/FB%: 11%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.7(-0.3)| EYE: 0.55(0.36)| ISO: 19.9%(1.9%)
Duvall, Adam Adam Duvall had one of the weirder fantasy seasons out of all batters with 38 homers and 113 RBI but he realty didn't hit all that well with a sub-.300 OBP and a .771 OPS. Duvall's striking out at a 31% rate which is the highest since his rookie season but has been able to offset it with a 16% barrel rate. I could see a path where he ends up back in Atlanta if the DH is adopted but the team is flush with outfielders before even factoring in we still don't know what happens with Marcell Ozuna in Atlanta. - jsperry | 2021 BABIP: 0.260(0.020)| Contact Rate: 73%(-1%)| HR Distance: 414ft(17)| HR Max BBS: 113.8()| HardHit%: 36.0%(5.3%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.7)| Elevation%: 23.6(0.7)| Barrels%: 16.1%(2.2%)| HR/FB%: 21%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.20(-0.08)| ISO: 26.3%(-3.2%)
Hays, Austin Austin Hays finished with .248 BA w/ 22 HR, 73 R, 71 RBI, and 4 SB in 131 GP. 2021 was a positive season for Hays who has finally gotten regular at-bats. He has missed some time with injuries this year but has been able to play in the majority of games for the Orioles. Hays shows the ability to make contact (20% K) but has an aggressive approach (5% BB) which leads to a lower batting average than one would expect given his strikeout rate. The good news is that the power spike looks legit given his quality of contact metrics (110.3 maxEV, 39% HardHIt, and 10% Barrels). Not to mention that Camden Yards, especially in the summertime, is one of the better offensive parks in the league. Hays has close to 30 HR upside and is a non-zero in stolen bases which makes him someone to keep an eye on in 2022 drafts. He should once again be a nice value towards the middle to late rounds. - pdouble 2021 BABIP: 0.286(-0.047)| Contact Rate: 77%(2%)| HR Distance: 390ft(0)| HR Max BBS: 110.3()| HardHit%: 30.6%(-0.3%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.0)| Elevation%: 12.5(1.0)| Barrels%: 9.1%(3.6%)| HR/FB%: 15%(-5%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(0.0)| EYE: 0.26(-0.28)| ISO: 20.5%(-6.0%)
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