Max Fried-Braves-SP
Max Fried went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 7 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's against the Nationals. Fried has now made 19 starts and has a 3.91 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He has an average strikeout and walk rate (24% K and 8% BB). In the past, he has been able to deliver above-average results because he combined his average strikeout and walk rates with elite ground balls (50%+GB) but he has been unable to replicate that this year (47% GB). This has led to more hard contact and barrels. The good news is that since the beginning of June he has been able to get 50%+ GB. This has resulted in a 3.73 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 26% K and 7% BB. This is the Fried that we expected coming into the year so hopefully, it continues down the home stretch.
Walker Buehler-Dodgers-SP
Walker Buehler went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 4 BB, and 8 K's against the Angels. Buehler has been dominant through 23 GS. He has a 2.13 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He is striking out 26% of batters with an above-average walk rate (6% BB). He has benefited from a .238 BABIP and 84% LOB but elite pitchers have seasons like this. His 3.69 SIERA paints a picture of regression and even if that happens one would have to be happy with what they have got from Beuhler so far. His velocity has been down this year (-1.5mph) but he has combated that by using his fastball less in favor of more offspeed pitches. He also has a legit four-pitch mix which helps him keep hitters off balance. Buehler is an ace and there is no reason to think he won't continue to pitch like one.
J.T. Realmuto-Phillies-C
J.T. Realmuto was 1-3 with an HR (13) against the Mets. Realmuto is hitting .271 with 13 HR, 46 R, 52 RBI, and 7 SB. It seems like he hasn't lived up to expectations this year but that is only because of unrealistic expectations. In 2019, he was able to play in 145 games due to playing some first base, and then in 2020, he played in 47 games due to the DH. It was going to happen naturally that he was going to play in fewer games which were going to hurt his power numbers and counting stats. He has continued to provide both power and speed from the catcher position which is hard to find. All of his underlying skills (22% K, 10% BB, 46% Hard, and 9% Barrels) are above-average. He trails only Salvador Perez in earned value so far so this has not been a disappointing season from Realmuto.
Ozzie Albies-Braves-2B
Ozzie Albies was 1-3 with an HR (18), 1 R, and 2 RBI against the Nationals. He is hitting .257 with 18 HR, 70 R, 72 RBI, and 13 SB. The batting average hasn't been what we expected coming into the year but he is on pace for a 25 HR, 100 R, 95 RBI, and 18 SB season which is a massive fantasy season. The batting average is lower than expected due to a .280 BABIP (.career .302 BABIP) because he has good plate skills (18% K and 8% BB). He's been a top 20 overall hitter so far with more upside given positive regression in his batting average.
Jesse Winker-Reds-OF
Jesse Winker was 2-3 with 1 R and 1 BB against the Pirates. Winker is hitting .310 with 23 HR, 75 R, 67 RBI, and 1 SB. He had struggled in July (.241 AVG and 88 wRC+) but turned it around quickly in August (.421 AVG and 278 wRC+). Every hitter is going to go through slumps but Winker's profile suggests that this should happen less often and not last as long given his ability to control the strike zone (16% K and 11% BB). His quality of contact has been elite as well (48% Hard and 12% Barrels). While he doesn't provide five-category value, he at least provides above-average production in the other four categories.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Avisail Garcia ($3,800) and 3B Eugenio Suarez ($4,000)
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