Shohei Ohtani-Angels-SP
Shohei Ohtani went 8 IP and gave up 1 ER on 6 H, 0 BB, and 8 K's against the Tigers. He also hit his 40th HR of the year. Ohtani has made 18 GS for the Angels and has a 2.79 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The strikeouts have been there (30% K) and he has slowly chipped away at his walk rate (10% BB). He has the pure stuff to miss bats (SwStr) with his plus fastball and splitter. The issue early on was a lack of control which is not uncommon coming off surgery and the extended period that he was not on the mound. Ohtani had a 21% walk rate in April and 14% in May but hasn't had a double-digit walk rate in any month since. He's able to keep the ball in the yard (0.68 HR/9) thanks in large part to his ability to keep the ball on the ground (43% GB) and get weak contact (9% Infield Fly). Ohtani is truly an elite pitcher and hitter who lines up to start against the Orioles next time out which is a plus matchup.
Tarik Skubal-Tigers-SP
Tarik Skubal went 6.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 6 H, 0 BB, and 7 K's against the Angels. Skubal has a 4.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through 22 GS. His 4.07 SIERA gives an indication that he has pitched to his skills which is still serviceable at the back end of a fantasy rotation. He is missing just enough bats (26% K) to be fantasy viable despite giving up 1.90 HR/9. The home run issue is what he needs to solve to take his game to the next level. The concern is that he is a fly ball pitcher (43% FB) so he is going to need to limit hard contact (45% Hard) to bring the home runs down. It is his first full season in the big leagues and he has already made adjustments and improvements so don't count him out in the long run but be careful where you use him this year due to the potential for blowups. The best way to use Skubal is to start him at home (3.48 ERA and 1.24 HR/9) in a pitcher-friendly environment that naturally suppresses home runs than on the road (5.11 ERA and 3.07 HR/9). Skubal will start on the road next time out against the Cardinals.
Max Kepler-Twins-OF
Max Kepler was 0-6 with 4 LOB against the Indians. Kepler is hitting .205 with 16 HR, 49 R, 45 RBI, and 8 SB. The stolen bases have helped keep his fantasy value up despite the low batting average and reduced counting stats. Kepler has good plate skills (21% K and 11% BB) and quality of contact (44% Hard and 11% Barrels). The real issue is a major platoon split. He has a career .242 AVG, .341 wOBA. And 113 wRC+ against right-handed pitching compared to .213 AVG, .281 wOBA, and 72 wRC+ against lefties. So if you are in a daily moves league, you would be able to extract more value out of Kepler but in weekly leagues, he is a borderline play each week especially if the Twins are facing a bunch of left-handed starters.
Teoscar Hernandez-Blue Jays-OF
Teoscar Hernandez was 2-4 with an HR (22), 1 R and 1 RBI against the Nationals. Hernandez is now hitting .317 with 22 HR, 61 R, 84 RBI, and 8 SB. He has kept the gains that he made in the shortened season which has been awesome for fantasy managers because this means that he is a true five-category contributor. It also means that he is no longer at risk of losing playing time because he is struggling to make contact and playing subpar defense. He has cut his strikeout rate from 30%+ to 25% this year to go along with 6% BB. Hernandez also has elite quality of contact metrics (48% Hard and 15% Barrels). He hits in the middle of a great offense with great Statcast numbers and has improved his plate skills which means there is nothing to not like about Hernandez.
Marco Gonzales-Mariners-SP
Marco Gonzales went 5.1 IP and gave up 0 ER on 6 H, 1 BB, and 3 K's against the Rangers. Through 17 GS, Gonzales has a 4.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He is not missing many bats (20% K) but that wasn't part of his game coming into the year. The problem for Gonzales has been control. Normally, he would have an above-average walk rate but has 8% walks which are average. The good news is that so far in August he has just 4% BB which is what he needs to succeed given his lack of strikeouts. Improved control/command also allows him to keep the ball in the yard (1.72 HR/9) which had been a major issue this year. He gets a two-start week coming up with good matchups (@ OAK and vs. KCR). Gonzales is pitching well with nice matchups so if he is available on the wire he is a pickup.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Andrew McCutchen ($3,900) and Jake Meyers ($2,000)
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