Sonny Gray-Reds-SP
Sonny Gray went 4.2 IP and gave up 1ER on 7 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Pirates. Gray has now made five starts and has a 3.55 ERA and 1.46 WHIP across 25.1 IP. The strikeouts have been there (34% K) and they are backed by a strong swinging-strike rate (12% SwStr) and called strikes+whiffs (34% CSW). Gray also does a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground with 48% ground balls and 53% GB for his career. His 20% HR/FB is going to regress closer to his career 12% mark which should mean that his ERA will come down when that happens. His 3.27 SIERA gives an indication of his skills and potential for success. The one drawback has been the walks (11% BB) which has been part of his success in Cincinnati but also is slightly scary. Overall, Gray's skills look great and he should see some positive regression that gets him back to the pitcher that we envisioned coming into the year. Gray is lined up for two starts next week against the Giants and Brewers at home.
Taijuan Walker-Mets-SP
Taijuan Walker went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 3 BB, and 4 K's against the Orioles. Walker has been brilliant for the Mets and fantasy managers. He has a 2.20 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across seven starts. He has been able to increase his strikeouts (26% K) which has been backed by more swinging strikes (10% SwStr) and an increase in CSW (29%). Now that we have talked about the good, let's dive into why this is likely unsustainable. Walker is benefiting from a .221 BABIP and 2.8% HR/FB which are both well below his career averages. His walk rate has also spiked to 11% BB. These are concerning trends and something that points to major regression. Walker, given his skills, is more of a low fours ERA type of pitcher (4.21 SIERA). This is still extremely useful in deeper mixed leagues but not close to what he is currently producing. Walker is scheduled for a two-start week which is an auto-start right now with a tough matchup on the road against the Braves and then a plus matchup against the Marlins on the road.
Jon Gray-Rockies-SP
Jon Gray went 5.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 3 H, 3 BB, and 6 K's against the Padres. Gray has pitched well to start the year with a 2.93 ERA and 1.17 WHIP through 46 IP. The underlying skills are average (23% K and 10% SwStr) and his walk rate is concerning at 10% BB. Especially for someone that pitches half of their games in Coors Field. He has also benefited from batted ball luck (.250 BABIP and 0.78 HR/9). The crazy part of his stat line for this year is that he has a 6.30 ERA on the road and 2.00 ERA at home. It is a small sample but this also means that fantasy managers have most likely missed out on his best starts. The real advice here is to forget about the prospect pedigree and strong surface numbers because the skills and environment are significant obstacles to overcome long term. He has a two-start week with two road matchups against the Padres and Mets if you are willing to roll the dice.
Zack Wheeler-Phillies-SP
Zack Wheeler went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 8 H, 1 BB, and 7 K's against the Nationals. Wheeler has been excellent for the Phillies with a 2.85 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He is also averaging 6.7 IP/GS which is a huge separator in today's game. He has been able to miss more bats this year (26% K) in addition to good control (7% BB). This has transformed him into an elite starter. Wheeler has always had plus stuff but just needed a slight pitch mix change to tap into his arsenal. He is throwing his four-seam fastball and slider more which is a huge positive. This means that he is throwing his sinker or two-seamer less which is a pitch he used to throw often to get weak contact instead of strikeouts. Wheeler should continue to roll with match-ups against the Marlins and Red Sox next week.
Brandon Woodruff-Brewers-SP
Brandon Woodruff went 7.2 IP and gave up 1 ER on 3 H, 1 BB, and 10 K's against the Cardinals. Woodruff hasn't gotten the attention that his teammate Corbin Burnes has received but Woodruff has been just as good. He has a 1.64 ERA and 0.69 WHIP across 49 IP. His strikeout rate is 33% with solid skills (13% SwStr and 31% CSW) to back it up. He also has good control (7% BB) and gets ahead of hitters (68% F-strike) which allows his plus stuff to work. The good news is that he has made a slight pitch mix change by throwing his changeup less in favor of more curves and sliders. This should help him maintain a strikeout rate above 30% in combination with his elite fastball(s). He gets a coveted two-start week with matchups against the Royals and Padres next week.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Raimal Tapia ($3,900) and 3B OF Nick Senzel ($3,700)
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