Bryce Harper, OF (PHI)
Harper picked up his fourth stolen base of the season on Thursday and may just possibly be in the midst of the best season of his career. Does that sound crazy? Well, how crazy is an expected batting average of .335 and xSLG of .712? How crazy is Harper's 20% barrel rate and sprint speed in the 65th percentile? A .315 season with 40 homers and 20 steals is not actually crazy based on his production. Harper's launch angle is lower, which actually suits him better. Wild uppercutting Bryce Harper is not the best Bryce Harper. Nor is the Bryce Harper who can't hit offspeed pitches. In his previous best season of 2015, Harper hit .351 on offspeed pitches. Since then he hasn't topped .250. However, this year he is hitting .444. The notable flaws that have dragged him down in recent years from the apex of fantasy baseball are getting corrected. Harper is at his best right now in spite of a career-worst swinging strike rate and contact rate.
Corbin Burnes, SP (MIL)
Burnes was activated off the COVID-19 IL after missing the past two-and-a-half weeks following a positive COVID-19 test. He allowed one run on five hits and one walk in five innings while striking out nine Cardinals batters. He threw 78 pitches. He has nine or more strikeouts in every start while the walk was his first free pass allowed this season. Prior to that walk, however, Burnes set the MLB record for most strikeouts without a walk to begin a season. His velocity was down a tick, but that is to be expected following the layoff. Burnes' incredible K/BB rate is reason enough to love his profile, but he also allows very little hard contact. He is what we wanted Noah Syndergaard to develop into. Now we have it, and Thursday's return gives us no indication Burnes won't continue to dominate the National League.
Omar Narvaez, C (MIL)
Narvaez returned from the 10-day IL on Thursday, finishing 0-for-3 with a walk in Milwaukee's 2-0 loss to St. Louis. Two years ago Narvaez was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. Last year he was arguably the worst, suffering through a 60 wRC+ season. However, this season he is having the best season of his career. In truth, he's probably closer to 2019/2021than 2020. I've thrown out 2020's numbers for a lot of players. I think I'm good doing it for Narvaez, who moved to a new city, new league and had to do it during the craziness of 2020. While his .379 BABIP this year is sure to regress, it's actually more reasonable than his .254 BABIP in 2020. He has a superb batting EYE and a beautiful hit tool. His line drive rate is 32%, which is only slightly above his career average. This comes along with an equitable spray chart to all fields. In other words, Narvaez "hits 'em where they ain't." Opposing defenses shift against him, but they probably shouldn't as he's hitting .426 against the shift. Because of his mature batted-ball profile, there isn't really an appropriate shift to limit his hits. This all explains why his expected batting average is .306. As long as he stays healthy, Narvaez is a top-5 catcher.
Zach Eflin, SP (PHI)
The good news is Eflin completed six innings on Thursday for the eighth time in eight starts and struck out a season-high nine batters. The bad news is he allowed five runs on seven hits, including two home runs, in a loss at Washington. He also allowed more than one walk for the first time this season but still has a miniscule 2.7% walk rate. Eflin seems to improve every season. This year is no exception. Along with the diminishing walk rate, Eflin's pitch selection is slightly altered. He is using his sinker less while going to his slider and curveball more. That has led to a drop in groundball rate but an uptick in line drives. This explains the high batting average allowed, but the low number of walks keeps his WHIP in check. Some caution is necessary with a player like Eflin. Allowing too many hits, even without walks, can create high-stress innings. It's imperative he limits the walks to avoid complete disaster. Nevertheless, Eflin has established himself as a reliable starter albeit with a relatively low ceiling.
Anthony DeSclafani, SP (SF)
DeSclafani relied heavily on his slider in five scoreless innings against Pittsburgh. He only allowed one hit overall while striking out five batters en route to his third win of the season. What has benefited Disco this season is his deep and versatile arsenal. His 10.8% swinging-strike rate is the highest of his career while his walk rate remains low. Although he used his sinker sparingly on Thursday (the Pirates don't feature enough power to worry about a lot of flyballs), it's been a crucial pitch for him this season, leading to a 54.4% groundball rate. However, as he showed in Pittsburgh, he isn't one-dimensional. If the sinker isn't the best gameplan, he can turn more to his slider or his 4-seam fastball. Even his curveball can generate outs. His BABIP allowed remains low and his LOB% will likely regress, but when you're at the disco you never know which song you're going to get. Tony keeps you guessing.
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