Lucas Giolito-White Sox-SP
Lucas Giolito went 8 IP and gave up 1 ER on 2 H, 3 BB, and 11 K's against the Twins. Giolito has been a major disappointment for fantasy managers who took him in the first or second round of most drafts. After his first eight starts, he had a 4.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP but after today's start, it dropped his ERA to 4.35 and his WHIP to 1.19. His strikeout rate has dropped from 34% to 28%. His walk rate still remains below average (10% BB) and his CSW has fallen to 29%. He has been battered by the long ball (1.63 HR/9) which has been a result of the quality of contact he has given up (43% Hard and 13% Barrels). If you look at the strike zone plot of his changeup and slider compared to 2020 you can see that he is leaving both pitches in the strike zone more which has led to more contact and higher-quality contact. It could be a mechanical issue but the underlying skills are still there (3.88 SIERA) to be an above-average starter. You are not going to get your return on investment but Giolito should be to keep it going forward. A two-start week against the Cardinals and Orioles should help get back on track and stay on track.
John Means-Orioles-SP
John Means went 6.1 IP and gave up 4 ER on 6 H, 1 BB, and 6 K's against the Rays. Means has been phenomenal to start the year. Even with today's clunker, he has a 1.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP through his first nine starts. The skills underneath are elite with 28% K, 5% BB, and 3.41 SIERA. Yes, there is going to be regression given his .188 BABIP and 97% LOB but even if he regresses to a mid-threes ERA the rest of the way that is a huge win for fantasy managers. His 22% K-BB% puts him in the top-15 among starters in the league. He has the skills to succeed in a hitter-friendly park and American League just don't expect his current rate of success to continue.
Randy Arozarena-Rays-OF
Randy Arozarena was 3-5 with 2 HR (6), 2, R, and 4 RBI against the Orioles. He is now hitting .268 with 6 HR, 25 R, 20 RBI, and 4 SB. It hasn't quite been what fantasy managers expected coming off his incredible postseason run but his production is nothing to sneeze at. He is on pace for 20+ HR and 15+ SB with a respectable average. Arozarena is striking out too much (29% K) but shows good plate discipline (10% BB). He is also not swinging at many balls out of the zone (25% O-swing) which combined with his hard-hit rate (41%) should continue to produce positive results. In order to become the superstar that he was last year, he would need to change hit less GB (57%) in favor of more fly balls (30%) which is not an easy thing to do in season. Regardless, Arozarena is providing value across all five categories and should continue to do so.
Alex Verdugo-Red Sox-OF
Alex Verdugo was 2-5 with an HR (6), 1 R, and 2 RBI against the Blue Jays. Verdugo is now hitting .288 with 6 HR, 28 R, 19 RBI, and 3 SB. He has elite plate discipline with 12% K and 8% BB. This year he has upped his hard contact (41% Hard) and increased his FB% slightly to 30% FB. It hasn't resulted in more power but it has the potential to as the season goes along. At his current rate, he is on pace for a 15 HR/10 SB season with plus counting stats and batting average. If he continues to hit first or second in front of J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers, he will have immense fantasy value.
Aaron Civale-Indians-SP
Aaron Civale went 7 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 1 BB, and 8 K's against the Angels. Civale now has a 3.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through his first nine starts. The traditional numbers are excellent but the underlying skills do not back it up. He has a below-average strikeout rate (19% K) and CSW (24%). Civale also has not shown plus control (7% BB) which is what you need to succeed if you don't miss many bats. He has largely benefited from a .230 BABIP to start the year. Civale is averaging 6.7 IP/GS which means he could volume his way to a decent strikeout total but that could come at the risk of his ratios given his current skills. This is a sell-high profile if you are in a trading league. He gets two starts next week with a plus matchup against the Tigers and then a much tougher test with the Blue Jays.
DFS Value Plays: 1B/OF Pavin Smith (ARI) and 2B Enrique Hernandez (BOS) @ $3,500 on DraftKings
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