As we head into the final week of preseason prep, we turn our attention to the ADP movers over the last 10 days. These are players that are either becoming in favor, or out, based on the most recent ADP data.
One of the features in the Fantistics Draft Advisory software is the ability to choose different ADP providers (ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, RTSports and blended). Other than the usefulness of using the different ADPs to more closely match your draft, this also allows the ability to complete different mock drafts using different ADP sources, giving you a different draft in each scenario. Knowing what your draft room sees or thinks of other players is almost like seeing the other owners cards during a poker game. This allows us to also gauge what players Fantistics ranks higher in value (FDP), verses their ADP. Which in turn allows Draft Advisory user, in some instances, to possibly wait an extra round or two, further enhancing our Value Above Mean ideology.
Below are the players that have seen their ADP widen over the last 10 days:
Smith, Dominic 1B NYM 123 (Overall ADP) 8 (ADP has widened by 8 positions) Smith had a breakout season and torrid September. Batting a solid .316/.355/.616 with 10 homers. Smith has emerged as a star in his age-25 season with 32 extra-base hits, 43 RBIs, and a .993 OPS in 50 games. - tmaher | The BA is likely not sustainable as it was based on a 368 BABIP, and the HR/FB rate of 22% is likely to come back down to the 18-10% range. Other than that the 22% K rate and 76% contact rate are very encouraging for a hitter turning 26 this season. 2020 BABIP: 0.368(0.048)| Contact Rate: 76%(1%)| HR Distance: 403ft(4)| HR BBS: 104.1(2.2)| HardHIt%: 37.8%(1.0%)| 95MPH+%: 46.7%(11.6%)| Avg Velocity: 90(1.8)| Elevation%: 10.8(-4.0)| Barrels%: 13.3%(5.8%)| HR/FB%: 22%(0%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.1)| EYE: 0.31(-0.12)| ISO: 29.9%(5.6%)
Mountcastle, Ryan 1B BAL 162 3 *Top 100 Prospect | Hitter Rank- 48 Overall Grade-B Current level-MLB Expected MLB- Now Solid .868 OPS in 2020 debut, but also a .395 BABIP. Solid .868 OPS in 2020 debut, but also a .395 BABIP. The 23 year-old rookie got off to fine start to his MLB career, hitting .323 with 6 longballs, and 24 RBI through his first 140 PA. He's certainly not been overmatched at the plate, as his 21% strikeout rate attests and, interestingly, he's put together a 8% walk rate to date after never posting a walk rate north of 6% in his minor league career, which stretches back to 2015. Statcast shows a solid 41% 95MPH+ rate and 7% barrel rate, but just an average exit velocity of just 87 mph. 44% of his batted balls have been grounders, so that will be something to keep an eye on as he's not exactly fleet of foot and his 5 homers are the result of a 14% HR/FB. - ahodge Mountcastle is a future star of this league. 2020 BABIP: 0.398(0.398)| Contact Rate: 73%(73%)| HR Distance: 409ft(409)| HR BBS: 103.1(103.1)| HardHIt%: 34.7%(34.7%)| 95MPH+%: 41.8%(41.8%)| Avg Velocity: 87(87.4)| Elevation%: 10.8(10.8)| Barrels%: 710.0%(710.0%)| HR/FB%: 14%(14%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(1.2)| EYE: 0.37(0.13)| ISO: 15.9%(15.9%)
Villar, Jonathan 2B NYM 210 16 Reverted back to being a heavy groundball hitter in 2020, and his production fell across the board. Subpar HardHIt% rates (26%), his almost 3 to 1 ground ball rate to Flyballs, limited him to only 2 HRs in 207 PAs. Expect a revision, and of course the Stolen bases. 2020 BABIP: 0.313(-0.028)| Contact Rate: 71%(-4%)| HR Distance: 419ft(11)| HR BBS: 107.5(3.3)| HardHIt%: 26%(-3%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-0.8)| Elevation%: 1.6(-5.4)| Barrels%: 1.5%(-5.3%)| HR/FB%: 7%(-10%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.8(1.3)| EYE: 0.35(0.00)| ISO: 5.9%(-12.0%)
Grisham, Trent OF SD 77 10 03/26/2021 Grisham is battling a Grade 1 hamstring strain; and it remains to be seen if he will face the Diamondbacks on Thursday. | The scouting reports didn't look great regarding Grisham, painting a picture of a guy with average power and speed plus below average contact ability. He's proven to be otherwise. His 11% Barrels, 42% 95MPH+, 413 distance and 105.3 SOB on his homeruns are all excellent. Grisham could continue to exceed expectations in 2021, especially if can compound on the stolen base potential. 2020 BABIP: 0.310(0.024)| Contact Rate: 79%(0%)| HR Distance: 413ft(26)| HR BBS: 105.3(2.8)| HardHIt%: 32.7%(-3.3%)| 95MPH+%: 41.8%(7.2%)| Avg Velocity: 88(0.7)| Elevation%: 13.5(-2.5)| Barrels%: 11.0%(5.6%)| HR/FB%: 20%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.3)| EYE: 0.48(0.06)| ISO: 20.5%(2.6%)
Lamet, Dinelson P SD 94 13 03/26/2021 Lamet is tending to an elbow injury; and he is not expected to take the field against the Diamondbacks in the season opener. | He didn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 12 starts this year, and the control improvement has been tremendous for him: after dropping a half a walk per 9 last season from 2017 (he was injured for 2018), he widdled it down to 2.6 BB/9. Compound that with elite bat-missing skills, and he's vaulted into the top-15 SP for me and is knocking on the door of the top 12 (true SP1's). It's amazing that a 2-pitch pitcher can be as effective as he is...he's fastball/slider 99.6% of the time this season after throwing that combo 98.5% of the time last year. His slider is virtually unhittable, and he's picked up a mph on the fastball in each of his last two seasons. He may be a half-step behind the top 5-6 names at SP, but I think he's right there in the midst of that reasonably large second group. - sdombroske | 2020 BABIP: 0.234(-0.077)| SwStr%: 14%(0%)| Avg FB: 97.1(1.0)| FB/Chg Split: 3.4(-0.5)| HR Distance: 392ft(-10)| Strand%: 0.80(0.07)| HardHit%: 36.0%(0.2%)| 95MPH+%: 40.0(5.9)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.8)| Elevation%: 16.9(2.0)| Barrels%: 7.3(-0.8)| HR/FB%: 8%(-12%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.01)| xFIP: 3.30(1.21)| xSLG: 0.318(0.058)
Soroka, Mike P ATL 171 8 03/20/2021 Soroka is on the mend from surgery to repair a torn right Achilles; and he is not expected to be available until at least the middle of April. | Mike Soroka suffered a torn right Achilles' tendon and missed most of 2020. Here waht we said about him soming into 2020, Soroka was the best rookie starting pitcher in 2019. His 3.7 WAR is nearly a full point (.9) higher than the closest rookie pitcher and his 174 IP ranks third amongst the rookie starters. Soroka's 2.68 ERA actually ranks third lowest among qualified pitchers in all of baseball. What's even more impressive is that in the highest home run producing season in the history of baseball, this rookie's HR/9 ratio is .69'which is tied for the lowest HR/9 across the majors (for qualified starters)'and he is just 22 years of age. - dnachtigal | That said he wasn't nearly as effective in the 2nd half with a 1.23 WHIP|3.20 ERA. His 80% Strand% is not going to be repeatable and will affect both his WHIP and ERA in 2020, as his slightly below average 10.3 SwStr% does not support it. THere will also be some regression with his 280 BABIP against. We do love the groundball rates though (51%). | 2020 BABIP: 0.268(-0.012)| SwStr%: 11%(0%)| Avg FB: 92.1(-0.4)| FB/Chg Split: 11.7(0.5)| HR Distance: 0ft(-406)| Strand%: 0.63(-0.17)| HardHit%: 19.5%(-16.8%)| 95MPH+%: 34.1(-3.4)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.0)| Elevation%: 3.9(-1.6)| Barrels%: 2.4(-2.7)| HR/FB%: 0%(-11%)| GB Rate: 0.61(0.10)| xFIP: 4.62(0.67)| xSLG: 0.372(0.127)
Franco, Wander SS TB 280 12 *Top 100 Prospect | Hitter Rank- 1 Overall Grade- A+ Current level-AAA Expected MLB- 2021 As a pro in 175 games: .336/.405/.523 with a 7% K% and 10.8% BB%. 2021 debut likely. As a pro in 175 games: .336/.405/.523 with a 7% K% and 10.8% BB%. 2021 debut likely. The #1 prospect in Baseball. Wander Franco is ridiculous. In his first pro year last season at the age of 17, Wander ate rookie ball alive, to a slash line of .351/.418/.587 over 242 ABs with a 7% K rate (you heard me) and a 6.2% SwStr%. Wander is the total package, plus power, plus speed, a ridiculous hit tool. He's acclimated to wooden bats, and he's the kind of guy who will catch your attention at BP with the sound of the ball off his bat. He has elite bat speed, and the ball explodes off his barrel. He generates more power already than an 18-year-old should. He generates much more power already than someone 5-10/189 should. So how long do you have to wait? We don't know. Wander is such a unique talent, and so advanced, that I hesitate to say never on any aspect of who he is as a player. Long Term Fantasy Grade - A+
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Above are the players that have seen their ADP tighten over the last 10 days:
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 1B TOR 49 (Overall ADP) 1 (ADP has tightened by 1 position/s) Vlad hit .262 with 9 HR, 31 R, 33 RBI, and 1 SB through 60 GP. The shine has worn off after two straight disappointing seasons. The contact skills still look great (16% K) as well as the plate discipline (9% BB) but 55% GB is going to make it hard to hit for power. Guerrero Jr. has hit the ball hard this year with 50% 95MPH+% on balls according to Statcast but a 4.6 LA isn't going to cut it. The makings of an elite hitter are still there but questions about his body and launch angle are going to keep his price down in 2021 as it should. - pdouble 2020 BABIP: 0.282(-0.026)| Contact Rate: 76%(-1%)| HR Distance: 396ft(-21)| HR BBS: 103.7(-2.9)| HardHIt%: 38.8%(3.9%)| 95MPH+%: 50.8%(12.4%)| Avg Velocity: 93(3.1)| Elevation%: 4.6(-2.1)| Barrels%: 8.7%(1.0%)| HR/FB%: 18%(6%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.0(0.5)| EYE: 0.53(0.02)| ISO: 19.9%(3.7%)
Abreu, Jose 1B CHW 35 -5 Other than in the stolen base department, Abreu is elite across the board. Production has been increasing across the board, but at 34, there is some concern that he might have passed his apex. 2020 BABIP: 0.350(0.030)| Contact Rate: 72%(-6%)| HR Distance: 406ft(2)| HR BBS: 105.6(0.0)| HardHIt%: 40%(0%)| Avg Velocity: 93(0.8)| Elevation%: 10.9(0.0)| Barrels%: 14.3%(1.5%)| HR/FB%: 33%(12%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(-0.1)| EYE: 0.31(0.07)| ISO: 30.0%(8.1%)
Bell, Josh 1B WSH 135 -7 Bell took a step back in 2020, and a lot of it had to do with a drop in his contact rate from 77% to 69%. The 7% increase in his K rate meant less balls in play, which decimated his BA (226). His average MPH on balls hit stay the same at 92 MPH, but the quality of contact dropped from 47 95MPH+ to only 43. He'll need to tighten that back up in 2021. 2020 BABIP: 0.273(-0.015)| Contact Rate: 69%(-7%)| HR Distance: 404ft(-7)| HR BBS: 106.8(0.3)| HardHIt%: 41.4%(-4.0%)| 95MPH+%: 42.9%(-4.2%)| Avg Velocity: 92(-0.6)| Elevation%: 5.9(-7.1)| Barrels%: 8.6%(-4.1%)| HR/FB%: 22%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.2(1.0)| EYE: 0.37(-0.26)| ISO: 13.8%(-15.4%)
Hoskins, Rhys 1B PHI 148 -11 11/07/2020 Hoskins is likely to be sidelined until at least the beginning of April after having Tommy John surgery performed on his left elbow. | What makes Hoskins unique is his EYE (.67)...which is a rarity for power hitters. He doesn't strikeout often with a ~23% K rate. His 18% HR/FB rate was just where it should have been. He's a pull hitter (50%), but the shifts against him last season led to a .202 Singles%, which heavily hurt his BA (245). On that topic his BA was under represented as his 276 BABIP has upward mobility. There is a lot to be excited about (especially his 43% 95MPH+) with Hoskins entering his 28th year of age. 2020 BABIP: 0.276(0.009)| Contact Rate: 76%(-2%)| HR Distance: 393ft(3)| HR BBS: 102.8(0.7)| HardHIt%: 32.4%(-13.8%)| 95MPH+%: 42.6%(3.9%)| Avg Velocity: 90(0.4)| Elevation%: 24.8(0.8)| Barrels%: 14.8%(5.1%)| HR/FB%: 18%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.67(0.00)| ISO: 25.8%(3.0%)
Cron, C.J. 1B COL 238 -76 His 19% Barrels rate is elite, however he struck out at nearly a 30% rate in 2020. He did hit RHP well (.567), but that's not likely sustainable over a full season. His BA should recover into the 240 range, as his 182 BABIP was very unlucky. 2020 BABIP: 0.182(-0.095)| Contact Rate: 72%(-5%)| HR Distance: 391ft(-13)| HR BBS: 104.3(-3.5)| HardHIt%: 42(+1%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-5.5)| Elevation%: 20.6(7.9)| Barrels%: 19.2%(4.2%)| HR/FB%: 33%(14%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(-0.3)| EYE: 0.56(0.29)| ISO: 35.7%(14.1%)
LeMahieu, DJ 2B NYY 24 -2 LeMahieu put up a monster BA last season with his 364 BA. Although he's an extreme contact hitter with elite 95MPH+ rates (46%), that number was fueled by a lucky 270 BABIP. Also unsustainable was his 27% HR/FB rate. Yes he plays in a hitters ballpark with insane talent around him, but don't pay for his 2019/2020 production as you will surely be disappointed. 2020 BABIP: 0.370(0.021)| Contact Rate: 90%(4%)| HR Distance: 361ft(-25)| HR BBS: 98.1(-4.0)| HardHIt%: 35%(-5.3%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.4)| Elevation%: 2.3(-4.4)| Barrels%: 2.9%(-4.6%)| HR/FB%: 27%(8%)| GB/FB Rate: 2.7(0.8)| EYE: 0.86(0.35)| ISO: 22.6%(3.5%)
Marte, Ketel 2B ARI 70 -2 Ignore Marte's 2020 season as it was a short blip and not representative of who he is as a hitter. Marte is a season removed from a 32/92RBI/329 campaign. Granted the BA and HR totals are likely not sustainable, but we're still looking at a hitting that is just entering the prime of his career. 2020 BABIP: 0.311(-0.031)| Contact Rate: 88%(4%)| HR Distance: 388ft(-17)| HR BBS: 100.8(-4.1)| HardHIt%: 33%(-9%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.6)| Elevation%: 10.0(-1.5)| Barrels%: 3.7%(-5.6%)| HR/FB%: 4%(-15%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.4(0.2)| EYE: 0.33(-0.29)| ISO: 12.2%(-14.2%)
Moustakas, Mike 2B CIN 119 -6 Not many hitters that qualify at second base with a +20% ISO and 17% HR/FB rate, which makes Moustakas a valued target. His 230 BA from a season ago was in part because of an unlucky 174 Singles%...and based on his 49% 90+MPH%, that appears to be a fluke. 2020 BABIP: 0.247(-0.003)| Contact Rate: 79%(1%)| HR Distance: 391ft(-11)| HR BBS: 101.6(-2.7)| HardHIt%: 38%(-3.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-0.5)| Elevation%: 16.3(-0.8)| Barrels%: 9.5%(-0.8%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-1%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.0)| EYE: 0.50(-0.04)| ISO: 23.7%(-2.5%)
McMahon, Ryan 2B COL 263 -26 McMahon posted solid hard Hit rate in 2020 with an 11% barrels Rate, 43% 95MPH+% and 418 distance on his HRs. Of course part of his 24% HR/FB rate is correlated to his +140 SLG at Coors. What we don't like was the increase in his Krate of 34%. Could be a valuable fantasy producer if he can corral that in , in 2021. 2020 BABIP: 0.286(-0.037)| Contact Rate: 69%(-2%)| HR Distance: 418ft(2)| HR BBS: 103.7(0.2)| HardHIt%: 40.2%(-3.9%)| 95MPH+%: 43.0%(-4.7%)| Avg Velocity: 90(-1.3)| Elevation%: 9.2(0.8)| Barrels%: 11.2%(2.2%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.5(-0.4)| EYE: 0.27(-0.08)| ISO: 20.3%(0.3%)
Baez, Javier SS CHC 72 -1 Contact Rate dropped to only 64% last season, which is significant. On the plus side he's hitting the ball harder than ever. His 423 average distance on his HRs is among the highest tin the league. His 36% Hard Hit% was stable, yet his 17% HR/FB rate was one of the lowest he's ever posted. On top of that he was very unlucky on BABIP, with only a 262, which adversely affected his BA. Expect a significant bounce back. 2020 BABIP: 0.262(-0.083)| Contact Rate: 64%(-3%)| HR Distance: 423ft(19)| HR BBS: 105.6(0.9)| HardHIt%: 36%(-1%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.6)| Elevation%: 10.3(2.7)| Barrels%: 8.1%(-4.6%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.0)| EYE: 0.09(-0.09)| ISO: 15.8%(-9.2%)
Seager, Corey SS LAD 29 -4 Here's what we said last preseason heading into 2020: "At only 26 Seager is going to have that breakout season if he can stay healthy. His Hard Hit rates have historically been elite, as has his average distance on his HRs." 2020 was a breakout season with a 15HR/41RBI/307BA in only 232 PAs. 52% Hard Hit Rate and 93 avg MPH on batted balls is uber elite. Lot to love here. At only 27, he's entering his prime. 2020 BABIP: 0.240(-0.128)| Contact Rate: 64%(4%)| HR Distance: 417ft(-1)| HR BBS: 106.8(-2.5)| HardHIt%: 41.2%(-10.7%)| 95MPH+%: 43.9%(-8.4%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-1.8)| Elevation%: 26.8(6.5)| Barrels%: 14.0%(-12.4%)| HR/FB%: 17%(-21%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.5(-0.1)| EYE: 0.37(-0.09)| ISO: 19.7%(-14.7%)
Gimenez, Andres SS CLE 186 -22 Gimenez doesn't take a lot of walks, but he does strikeout a lot either. What's encouraging about him is his gap power which will one day develop into HR power. Will steal 20 bases with everyday role. Still very young at only 22, but his future is bright. (77 Contact rate). 2020 BABIP: 0.318(0.318)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| HR Distance: 382ft(382)| HR BBS: 103.9(103.9)| HardHIt%: 22.0%(22.0%)| 95MPH+%: 26.4%(26.4%)| Avg Velocity: 87(86.8)| Elevation%: 13.5(13.5)| Barrels%: 3.3%(3.3%)| HR/FB%: 10%(10%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(1.3)| EYE: 0.25(-0.02)| ISO: 13.6%(13.6%)
Hayes, Ke'Bryan 3B PIT 142 -9 *Top 100 Prospect | Hitter Rank- 9 Overall Grade- A- Current level-MLB Expected MLB- Now Organization may be a dumpster fire, but at least they have this guy. Organization may be a dumpster fire, but at least they have this guy. Ke'Bryan Hayes (son of Charlie Hayes) was one the best defensive 3Bs in the minors, his plate approach is solid, and he's got some speed. Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B-PIT) went 1-3 with a run scored, 2 RBI, and a walk in the first game of a doubleheader with the Cardinals on Friday. He went 0-3 with a strikeout in the nightcap. The 23 year-old has enjoyed a fine start to his big league career, and hit .376 with a 5 homers, 11 RBI, and a stolen base through95 PAn. As was the case in the minors, he's taken plenty of walks , but has uncharacteristically (but understandably as he takes the step up to the majors) struck out a good bit (21%). Sure, his .450 BABIP indicates that his average will likely regress, but he's mashed the ball (49% 95MPH+) and has made plenty of contact (84%) while not swinging and missing much (7%). The sample size is absolutely small at this point and the hype has always been based more on potential than production in the minors, but Hayes is giving fantasy owners reason to have him on their radar for 2021. - ahodge 2020 BABIP: 0.450(0.450)| Contact Rate: 84%(84%)| HR Distance: 410ft(410)| HR BBS: 102.4(102.4)| HardHIt%: 44.6%(44.6%)| 95MPH+%: 55.4%(55.4%)| Avg Velocity: 93(92.8)| Elevation%: 7.4(7.4)| Barrels%: 9.2%(9.2%)| HR/FB%: 25%(25%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(1.6)| EYE: 0.45(0.01)| ISO: 30.6%(30.6%)
France, Ty 3B SEA 270 -45 The 305 BA is unsustainable based on the 390 BABIP, which appears very fortunate based on his 86 MPH average velocity on balls hit into play. 2020 BABIP: 0.390(0.111)| Contact Rate: 77%(-2%)| HR Distance: 425ft(43)| HR BBS: 104.7(2.5)| HardHIt%: 31.7%(-10.2%)| 95MPH+%: 29.8%(-12.1%)| Avg Velocity: 86(-3.2)| Elevation%: 14.8(-0.3)| Barrels%: 8.7%(2.8%)| HR/FB%: 12%(-2%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.2(0.0)| EYE: 0.30(0.12)| ISO: 16.3%(-0.5%)
Sanchez, Gary C NYY 146 -4 Sanchez has the most pop of any catcher in the game with a 106.4 BBS on his HRs and an overall average of 92 MPH on balls hit into play. His 17.4% Barrels rate is elite as was his 41% Hard Hit rate in 2020. What is not elite is his ability to stay healthy, and the spiraling contact rate (68%) last season. So there will be a sacrifice of power for those that draft him this season. 2020 BABIP: 0.159(-0.085)| Contact Rate: 68%(-2%)| HR Distance: 400ft(-16)| HR BBS: 106.4(-2.9)| HardHIt%: 41%(-1%)| Avg Velocity: 92(0.8)| Elevation%: 19.2(0.1)| Barrels%: 17.4%(-1.7%)| HR/FB%: 24%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.8(0.2)| EYE: 0.28(-0.04)| ISO: 21.8%(-7.5%)
Perez, Salvador C KC 87 -5 Coming off an injury that sidelined him for the entire 2019 season. Perez finished 2019 with 27HRs and 80 RBIs over 2 consecutive seasons. His 104 BBS on his HRs and 43% hard Hit rate is elite at his position. Solid 76% contact rate and 23% ISO are just more accolades. That said he doesn't walk much and doesn't have good speed, so his RS numbers are depressed. His BA from the 2020 season (333) is well above what it should have been, thanks to an lucky 375 BABIP. 2020 BABIP: 0.375(0.130)| Contact Rate: 76%(-2%)| HR Distance: 415ft(16)| HR BBS: 104.0(-0.3)| HardHIt%: 43%(-3%)| Avg Velocity: 91(-0.2)| Elevation%: 14.2(-3.8)| Barrels%: 13.9%(3.1%)| HR/FB%: 26%(11%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.0(0.2)| EYE: 0.08(-0.08)| ISO: 30.0%(9.6%)
Murphy, Sean C OAK 198 -6 03/11/2021 Murphy is on the mend after surgery to repair a collapsed lung; and he will miss an undetermined length of time. | Sean finished the 2019 season with 120 AAA ABs in which he hit 10 HRs with a .308 BA. That was 120 ABs. He could get 150-170 this year. That's a high-side scenario, of course. But let's take his 53 ABs last year in the majors, with 4 HRs. That gets to 12 HRs in 159 ABs. How does 10-12 HRs look this year? Sean hit just .245 in that span, and he had a 12% SwStr rate and 34% chase rate. Neither of which is god-awful, especially in your first look at MLB pitching, but in AAA, Sean posted a 7.5% SwStr% in that tour with a 22% K rate and 11% K rate. The point here is that Sean has good hit tool. He's a capable hitter (50/55 scouting scores). He also has some power (60/60). Last year he posted a nice tidy 35.1% Hard% to boot. Prospect Central Grade: B++ 2020 BABIP: 0.278(0.278)| Contact Rate: 77%(77%)| HR Distance: 418ft(418)| HR BBS: 106.6(106.6)| HardHIt%: 34.2%(34.2%)| 95MPH+%: 49.4%(49.4%)| Avg Velocity: 92(92.2)| Elevation%: 14.7(14.7)| Barrels%: 12.7%(12.7%)| HR/FB%: 23%(23%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.1(1.1)| EYE: 0.65(0.24)| ISO: 22.4%(22.4%)
Santander, Anthony OF BAL 154 -3 The 25 year-old finished a shortened 2020 batting .261 with 11 homers, 32 RBI, and 24 runs scored through 165 PA, with a big part of his success attributable to a significantly reduced strikeout rate (15% in 2020, 21% in 2019). His Hard Hit rate remains above average at 37%, and his barrels% has risen to a solid 10%. He's also raised his line-drive rate 10% to 27% while more effectively spraying the ball around the field (37% pull, 33% center, 31% right). - ahodge | If Santana can find the right mix between elevation (which is right now at 24%), and contact...he could be in for a big season. 2020 BABIP: 0.248(-0.037)| Contact Rate: 78%(-3%)| HR Distance: 388ft(-19)| HR BBS: 104.4(-1.3)| HardHIt%: 36.7%(-1.2%)| 95MPH+%: 36.7%(0.5%)| Avg Velocity: 89(-1.0)| Elevation%: 24.7(9.9)| Barrels%: 10.2%(2.5%)| HR/FB%: 18%(2%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.5(-0.4)| EYE: 0.40(0.18)| ISO: 31.4%(9.8%)
Ozuna, Marcell OF ATL 39 -3 Coming into 2020, we said that Ozuna offered plenty of upside expected in BA as his .202 Singles% is not indicative of a hitter with a 48% hard hit rate and 92 MPH average velocity on balls in play. Well he turned that around with a 391 BABIP and 338 BA in 2020....all of which is of course not sustainable. The 16% HR/FB rate is sustainable however as his 46% Hard Hit Rate and 93 average MPH rate is uber elite! 2020 BABIP: 0.391(0.132)| Contact Rate: 71%(-4%)| HR Distance: 429ft(27)| HR BBS: 107.0(1.4)| HardHIt%: 46%(-1%)| Avg Velocity: 93(1.2)| Elevation%: 16.4(2.9)| Barrels%: 15.4%(2.8%)| HR/FB%: 27%(4%)| GB/FB Rate: 0.9(-0.3)| EYE: 0.63(0.09)| ISO: 29.8%(6.7%)
Hays, Austin OF BAL 280 -8 Hays of course is considered to be a top prospect. Although we didn't see the power potential, we did see quality at bats. His 82% contact rate is an encouraging sign, the power will follow. 2020 BABIP: 0.316(-0.017)| Contact Rate: 82%(8%)| HR Distance: 375ft(-15)| HR BBS: 103.5(2.4)| HardHIt%: 19.2%(-11.7%)| 95MPH+%: 31.3%(-10.5%)| Avg Velocity: 87(-2.9)| Elevation%: 11.0(-0.5)| Barrels%: 4.0%(-1.5%)| HR/FB%: 13%(-7%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.6(0.5)| EYE: 0.32(-0.22)| ISO: 11.5%(-15.0%)
Winker, Jesse OF CIN 230 -19 Winker finally had a breakout stint against LHP (.515 SLG). What he does do well is make contact and take walks. He seem to have a very intellectual and cognitive approach at the plate and his 49% HardHIt% was a breakthrough in 2020. He's still very much a groundball hitter (1.68 GB/FB), and if he starts lifting the ball (10% elevation), he could become a breakout player. Of course it won't be at the 40% HR/FB rate, but frequency would offset that. 2020 BABIP: 0.283(-0.003)| Contact Rate: 74%(-9%)| HR Distance: 395ft(16)| HR BBS: 104.5(3.4)| HardHIt%: 49.0%(8.0%)| 95MPH+%: 49.0%(8.3%)| Avg Velocity: 92(3.0)| Elevation%: 10.5(3.1)| Barrels%: 13.5%(8.5%)| HR/FB%: 40%(17%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.7(-0.3)| EYE: 0.61(-0.02)| ISO: 28.9%(8.5%)
Straw, Myles OF HOU 308 -59 Speed is the name of the game here. Having stolen 170 bases and been caught only 43 times during his minor league career, Straw rates a perfect 70 out of 70 in SB potential. The tradeoff is power potential. What is favorable is his 83% contact rate, and if he can put enough balls in play, he could be serviceable in with his BA. What he'll also need to work on is his BB%, which at only 5% needs some upward revision for him to see everyday playing time.
Pederson, Joc OF CHC 242 -62 Still struggles mightily against LHP with an unpalatable 250 (LHP) Slg%. This will of course limit his value in traditional fantasy leagues as he's nothing more than a platoon hitter. 2020 BABIP: 0.200(-0.049)| Contact Rate: 71%(-7%)| HR Distance: 407ft(8)| HR BBS: 104.7(-0.2)| HardHIt%: 27%(-8%)| Avg Velocity: 93(2.0)| Elevation%: 12.5(-2.8)| Barrels%: 10.2%(-0.1%)| HR/FB%: 23%(-3%)| GB/FB Rate: 1.3(0.3)| EYE: 0.32(-0.13)| ISO: 20.7%(-8.2%)
Glasnow, Tyler P TB 50 -2 Glasnow generated an elite 14% swinging-strike rate and ultra elite 14.3 k/9 rate last summer. Home runs have been a significant driver behind Glasnow's elevated 4.08 ERA this season. To that end, Glasnow's 24% HR:FB ratio is a career-high, and he's likely suffered from some poor home run luck and small sample randomness. , Encouragingly, Glasnow's stuff has been as filthy as ever from a strikeout perspective with his 37% strikeout rate, and his 2.87 xFIP is a career-best. Fantasy managers should remain confident in Glasnow despite his home run problem, and expect the 27-year-old to be a fantasy ace in 2021. - schinitz 2020 BABIP: 0.281(0.016)| SwStr%: 14%(2%)| Avg FB: 97.0(0.0)| FB/Chg Split: 5.8(1.5)| HR Distance: 404ft(-11)| Strand%: 0.79(-0.06)| HardHit%: 38.4%(9.6%)| 95MPH+%: 42.4(10.3)| Avg Velocity: 90(3.0)| Elevation%: 13.4(2.9)| Barrels%: 8.8(3.1)| HR/FB%: 23%(15%)| GB Rate: 0.39(-0.12)| xFIP: 2.75(-1.33)| xSLG: 0.363(-0.037)
McCullers Jr., Lance P HOU 127 -4 McCullers finished the regular season with a 3.93 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 across 11 starts (55 IP). His 3.66 xFIP points to some slight misfortune in the form of a 65% strand rate and 15% HR/FB. The swinging strike rate that opposing batters amassed (11%) was his lowest since 2015 while the 73% contact rate and 35% hard-hit rate that opposing batters managed were in line with his career norms. - ahodge | 2020 BABIP: 0.277(-0.001)| SwStr%: 11%(-2%)| Avg FB: 93.8(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 7.4(0.4)| HR Distance: 381ft(-15)| Strand%: 0.65(-0.04)| HardHit%: 38.4%(5.5%)| 95MPH+%: 34.9(-0.2)| Avg Velocity: 89(0.4)| Elevation%: 3.8(-1.3)| Barrels%: 10.3(2.1)| HR/FB%: 15%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.60(0.05)| xFIP: 3.68(-0.25)| xSLG: 0.415(0.010)
Alcantara, Sandy P MIA 147 -7 The lanky right-hander finsihed 2020 3-2 with a stellar 3.00 ERA on the season. Despite not posting gaudy strikeout/walk numbers, Alcantara was a serviceable fantasy option in his 7 outings in 2020. The advanced metrics (4.04 xFIP) suggest that he hasn't been as good as his ERA indicatess. His underwhelming 8.4 K/9 rate and high GB% are what mainly hurt him in the advanced metrics; however, keeping the ball on the ground obviously helps him keep it in the park and he owns a 28 % Soft% that ranks top 10 in the majors (among starters with at least 30 IP). - dnachtigal 2020 BABIP: 0.274(0.003)| SwStr%: 10%(-1%)| Avg FB: 96.5(0.9)| FB/Chg Split: 6.5(0.2)| HR Distance: 396ft(-8)| Strand%: 0.64(-0.10)| HardHit%: 28.2%(-6.4%)| 95MPH+%: 38.5(4.2)| Avg Velocity: 88(1.6)| Elevation%: 6.8(-4.2)| Barrels%: 6.0(-0.5)| HR/FB%: 12%(1%)| GB Rate: 0.49(0.05)| xFIP: 4.04(1.04)| xSLG: 0.386(0.031)
Civale, Aaron P CLE 191 -10 Civale finished 2020 with a 4.72/3.92 ERA/xFIP which isn't amazing but his consistency and depth have made him a serviceable fantasy option. He has only given up more than three runs in 3 of his 12 starts and his 70.0 innings pitched was top 10 in the majors. He is just 25 years old and he posted an impressive 2.34 ERA in his first 57.2 big league innings a season ago so he's certainly worth keeping an eye on for the 2021 campaign. - dnachtigal 2020 BABIP: 0.333(0.083)| SwStr%: 10%(2%)| Avg FB: 91.8(-0.8)| FB/Chg Split: 6.5(-2.0)| HR Distance: 398ft(2)| Strand%: 0.72(-0.05)| HardHit%: 35.7%(-2.7%)| 95MPH+%: 33.5(0.6)| Avg Velocity: 87(0.5)| Elevation%: 10.4(-4.6)| Barrels%: 6.7(4.3)| HR/FB%: 16%(9%)| GB Rate: 0.44(0.04)| xFIP: 3.92(-0.82)| xSLG: 0.437(-0.037)
Canning, Griffin P LAA 309 -21 The strikeout ability seems to be there. Canning had a solid if unspectacular rookie campaign in 2019, as he tossed 90.1 innings, finishing with a 4.58 ERA (4.75 xFIP), 1.22 WHIP 9.6 K/9, and 3 BB/9. If you want to shore up the back end of your rotation with a pitcher who has the potential to become a mid-rotation guy given his ability to miss bats (14% swinging-strike rate in 2019). - ahodge 2020 BABIP: 0.307(0.027)| SwStr%: 12%(-2%)| Avg FB: 92.8(-1.1)| FB/Chg Split: 4.8(-89.1)| HR Distance: 420ft(15)| Strand%: 0.73(0.00)| HardHit%: 36.1%(-5.5%)| 95MPH+%: 34.2(2.2)| Avg Velocity: 89(1.9)| Elevation%: 18.9(2.8)| Barrels%: 8.9(1.3)| HR/FB%: 12%(-1%)| GB Rate: 0.36(-0.01)| xFIP: 4.81(0.82)| xSLG: 0.423(-0.020)
Taillon, Jameson P NYY 191 -27 Full 18 months since TJS. Was an emmerging star before, so we should see msot of that return in 2021. His 12.9% SwStr% is elite, and when you can combine that with a 50% GB%, good things tend to happen. | 2019 BABIP: 0.263(-0.089)| SwStr%: 12%(4%)| Avg FB: 94.8(-0.5)| FB/Chg Split: 6.1(7.2)| HR Distance: 384ft(-2)| Strand%: 0.52(-0.19)| HardHit%: 35.6%(6.0%)| Avg Velocity: 88(2.5)| Elevation%: 7.0(-0.9)| Barrels%: 6.8(2.7)| HR/FB%: 13%(3%)| GB Rate: 0.50(0.02)| xFIP: 4.06(-0.04)| xSLG: 0.440(0.039)
Boyd, Matthew P DET 298 -27 Matt throws FB/SL/CH, and mixes in a curve. His FB velo isn't overwhelming at 92 and its peak seems to be 92-94. His fastball plays up because of his change delta however. He parachutes his change in low 80s at times which gives 12 mph of delta which is maddening to hitters, hence the above average SwStr%. He throws his curveball even slower and it's the range of velos that he can present to a hitter that makes him formidable. The 29 year-old finished the 2020 campaign with a 6.71 ERA, 9 K/9, and 3.3 BB/9 across 12 starts (60.1 IP). His 4.96 xFIP says he was unlucky (66% strand rate and 20% HR/FB), but he did allow a lot of homers last season as well (18% HR/FB). Statcast shows that he allowed hard contact at a career-high 40% hard-hit rate while inducing groundballs at less than a 38% clip. - ahodge 2020 BABIP: 0.308(0.001)| SwStr%: 13%(-2%)| Avg FB: 91.7(-0.3)| FB/Chg Split: 12.6(-0.2)| HR Distance: 400ft(2)| Strand%: 0.66(-0.09)| HardHit%: 28.3%(-12.4%)| 95MPH+%: 37.0(2.3)| Avg Velocity: 87(-1.0)| Elevation%: 15.4(-3.4)| Barrels%: 10.9(1.9)| HR/FB%: 20%(2%)| GB Rate: 0.37(0.02)| xFIP: 4.97(-1.74)| xSLG: 0.476(-0.076)
Paxton, James P SEA 215 -36 Paxton made just five starts in 2020 due to a strained flexor tendon. In a December showcase he was hitting 92 on the radar gun, which was similar to 2020, but a far cry from his 95.5 average velocity from a few years ago. Can a lefty be effect at 92? Absolutely, especially if he can maintain a 10 MPH split between his fastball and change, which he displays in limited activity last season. Still he's not going to be the dominating pitcher that he was in 2017, so you shouldn't pay for that. 2020 BABIP: 0.365(0.052)| SwStr%: 13%(-1%)| Avg FB: 92.1(-3.4)| FB/Chg Split: 10.1(0.9)| HR Distance: 396ft(3)| Strand%: 0.55(-0.21)| HardHit%: 46.4%(8.7%)| 95MPH+%: 44.6(6.3)| Avg Velocity: 91(2.1)| Elevation%: 18.4(1.3)| Barrels%: 10.7(3.3)| HR/FB%: 14%(0%)| GB Rate: 0.32(-0.06)| xFIP: 4.47(-2.17)| xSLG: 0.443(-0.088)
German, Domingo P NYY 236 -90 One of the best curveballs in the business with a 45% whiff rate. Finished 2019 with an incredible 14% SwStr%. Has some domestic abuse issues to navigate through, but could be a fantasy star given enough innings.
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