Ronald Acuna, Jr. (OF-ATL) came up huge in a doubleheader with the Nationals on Friday, going 2-3 with a pair of homers, 3 RBI, 3 runs scored, and a walk in game 1 before going 1-4 with a solo blast (but 3 strikeouts) in the second contest. The 22 year-old is nicely recovering to his slow start to the 2020 campaign and is now batting .279 with 8 longballs, 14 RBI, 20 runs scored, and 2 stolen bases through 103 PA. While his 16% walk rate indicates that he is showing considerable patience at the dish, Acuna has struck out in a career-worst 30% of PA. Statcast indicates that his hard-hit rate (43%) isn't far off his career clip (47%), although his average exit velocity is down to 89mph from last year's 91. Acuna has traded some groundballs (35%) and flyballs (35%) for liners (29%), although his contact rate is down a bit to 71% (74% career) and his swinging-strike rate is (unsurprisingly given his strikeout rate) up to a career-high 12.5%. But performances like Friday's display should do much to assure his fantasy owners that he's just fine.
Nicholas Castellanos (OF-CIN) went 2-4 with a solo jack and 2 runs scored in game 1 of a doubleheader with Pittsburgh on Friday before going 0-3 with a hat trick in game 2. Friday sort of served as a microcosm of his 2020 campaign, as he is now hitting .248 with 11 homers, 25 RBI, and 27 runs scored through 157 PA. While his 9.6% walk rate indicates that he's being more patient at the plate (6.6% career), he seems to be selling out for power as his strikeout rate has climbed to 27% (23% career). Statcast does show that his hard-hit rate is up to a career-high 47% (40% career), as his launch angle (18.3 in 2020, 15.4 career). Castellanos' swinging-strike rate is up to a career-worst 16.8% while his contact rate is, unsurprisingly, at a career-low 67%. Hitting for power at Great American Ballpark isn't the worst idea in the world, but fantasy owners who drafted Castellanos likely expected something near the .289-.298 average that he posted the last two seasons rather than a peak Khris Davis BA.
Luis Castillo (SP-CIN) earned a quality start in the first game of a doubleheader with the Pirates on Friday as he surrendered 2 runs on 7 hits and a pair of walks while fanning 8 in 6 IP. The 27 year-old flamethrower now owns a 3.95 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and 3.5 BB/9 through 8 starts (43.1 IP) in 2020. While the ERA might be pretty meh, his 2.97 xFIP indicates that some misfortune has inflated that figure. Sure enough, opposing batters have mustered an inflated .387 BABIP against Castillo while he's managed to strand just 67% of baserunners despite his ability to induce whiffs. Statcast shows that opposing hitters have made hard contact at just a 33% clip against him while their average exit velocity is just under 85mph. He's done a stellar job of inducing grounders (57% of batted balls) and currently owns an elite 16% swinging strike rate, which is identical to last season's clip while batters have managed a 69% contact rate against him (70% career). Oh, and Castillo's average fastball velocity is up to 97.5mph, a full tick above last season's average and right at where he was in his rookie campaign back in 2017. Long story short, Friday's outing represented some correction toward his excellent xFIP.
Pablo Lopez (SP-MIA) struggled against the Rays on Friday as he coughed up 5 runs on 5 hits and a pair of walks while striking out 6 in just 4 IP. The 24 year-old righty was off to a strong start in 2020, as he owned a 2.10 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 through his first 6 starts (34.1 IP) entering Friday's outing. His 3.14 xFIP, however, pointed to a low 4.5% HR/FB suppressing his ERA. So, some correction to the mean was expected and yes, he did allow a homer on Friday evening. Overall, though, Lopez has made some significant improvements this season, as his K/9 and BB/9 are both career bests and his 60% groundball rate is 10% higher than his career clip. Statcast shows that he's limited opposing batters to just a 30% hard-hit rate (average exit velocity of 85mph) while he's raised his swinging-strike rate to a career-best 13.4%. The key appears to be an overhauled arsenal - he's only throwing his 94-mph heater 26% of the time and has added a cutter (10%) while throwing his changeup a career-high 31% of the time and has nearly abandoned his curve (down to under 7%). There's reason to think that Lopez has taken a step forward in 2020 despite Friday's rough outing.
Trevor Bauer (SP-CIN) took a tough-luck loss against the Pirates on Friday, as he surrendered 4 runs (just 1 earned) on 6 hits and a pair of walks while striking out 7 over 6 IP. The 29 year-old is in the midst of what could very well be his best professional campaign, as he now owns a 2.05 ERA, 12.5 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9 through his first 7 starts (44 IP) of the 2020 campaign. Yes, his 3.30 xFIP points to a .219 BABIP and 85% strand rate suppressing his ERA, but Bauer's elevated his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 13.4% while reducing his walk rate to a career-low clip. While his average fastball velocity is down a full tick from last season's 94.6mph, he's deploying his cutter a career-high 22% of the time while all but abandoning his changeup (down to under 1%).
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