Mike Clevinger (SP - SD) - Clevinger heads to San Diego in a great deal for the Padres, coming over with Greg Allen for a whole bunch of stuff the Padres didn't need, including a trio of prospects ranked between 7 and 11 in their system. Clevinger hasn't looked great in his 22 2/3 innings thus far in 2020, losing half of last year's velo bump and scuffling with his control, but he's a pretty clear top-15 SP who has an argument for the top 10. The best thing about this deal for the Padres is that Clevinger isn't just a rental....he's under club control for at least a few more years. SD is pretty clearly the 2nd best team in the NL after this move, and is definitely a legitimate WS contender. This should be viewed as a slight upgrade for Clevinger, going to one of the best offensive teams in the game from one of the worst to this point in 2020.
Kevin Pillar (OF - COL) - In one of the few clear upgrades at the deadline for any specific player, Pillar moves to Colorado for a PTBNL and some international bonus pool money. Pillar is showing a bit more AVG and a bit less speed through 30 games this year, and the BABIP that's helping that AVG probably won't be hindered by the move to Coors one bit. This trade probably does push Pillar into a situation where he warrants a roster spot in most formats, although its not based on the player that Pillar is as much as the situation. Pillar is still showing a chase rate above 40%, his contact rate has actually dropped down to the 75% range, and his hard contact rate is stable from last year....Coors Field will have a tendency to make the latter two numbers better in all likelihood. This is probably a downgrade for Sam Hilliard and possibly Garrett Hampson as well.
Mitch Moreland (1B - SD) - Moreland was yet another player the Padres picked up before the trade deadline, coming over from Boston for a couple of prospects ranked in the low-teens in a loaded Padre system. Moreland has been on fire for the Red Sox, hitting .328 with 8 homers already this season, but in particular the AVG looks to be quite a bit overstated to me. Moreland appears to have traded some contact for power the past few years, bumping up the pull% last year and the FB rate this season in exchange for some more swing-and-miss....that batted ball mix shouldn't yield an above-average BABIP, but the .341 mark Moreland is posting is 55 points above his career average. I expect the AVG to continue to drift back down, but SD is actually a better HR park than Fenway this season and equivalent to it the past two years, so the power numbers shouldn't be hurt. The Padres are also #1 in offense as well, so a slight bump there in R and RBI could be expected. All in all, the trade is probably a slight positive for Moreland, whose AVG was likely to drop no matter where he was.
Rhys Hoskins (1B - PHI) - Hoskins doubled and homered again on Monday, giving him 3 and 5 respectively over the past 7 games. Hoskins has settled in to a low AVG, good pop traditional 1B role, but he makes much better contact than most players of that type....he just hits the ball in the air so often (and pulls the ball a ton) that the BABIP is simply going to be pretty low. I think he'll have a year here and there where his AVG creeps up into the .260-.280 range and he'll be an All-Star in those seasons, but with his style of hitting he's more likely to just be a defensible CI play most seasons with solid power numbers and a hurting AVG.
Zach Eflin (SP - PHI) - Eflin's start over the weekend was brilliant to be sure, and one of the things that is most impressive about it was the re-insertion of the curveball into his repertoire. He threw the curve the second most times he ever has in a start, and 6 of his 8 strikeouts came on the pitch. His chase rate has ballooned to almost 40%, and he's cut almost 10% off of 2019's hard contact rate through 5 outings. It's a little early to call a breakout here, but for what it's worth, I've gone and picked him up in 2 of my leagues since that start. I think there's a lot of upside here.
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