Luis Castillo-Reds-SP
Luis Castillo went 3.1 IP and gave up 3 ER on 5 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Royals. On the year, he has a 4.41 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The WHIP sticks out for one of the top starting pitchers in the game. It is likely just small sample noise because the skills (31% K, 8% BB, 17% SwStr) are better than a year ago in which he posted a 1.14 WHIP. The difference is a .393 BABIP compared to his .274 career BABIP. There is nothing to be concerned about here because the skills are still elite but just needs better outcomes on his batted ball. Castillo gets a two-start next week on the road against the Brewers and home against the Cubs.
Rhys Hoskins-Phillies-1B
Rhys Hoskins was 0-2 with 1 R and 2 BB against the Red Sox. He has had a dismal start to the year with a .207 AVG and just 1 HR. A deeper look into his underlying skills suggests he has been very unlucky. He is showing improved plate discipline (22% BB, 20% K). Hoskins quality of contact (EV, barrel%, and hard contact) are all in line with his career numbers. It has been brutal but things should turn around for the slugging first baseman. A little bit more aggressiveness instead of passivity and Hoskins could go on a power surge.
Pablo Lopez-Marlins-SP
Pablo Lopez went 6.1 IP and gave up 2 ER on 7 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's against the Mets. Lopez has now made four starts and he has looked amazing. He has a 2.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 22.1 IP. The skills have looked really solid with 28% K, 6% BB, and 17% SwStr. This also has gone along with a ton of weak contact (61% GB). He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past but a change to his pitch mix has allowed him to be successful this year. He is throwing his fastball less in favor of an added cutter and more changeups. Longterm, the strikeouts are likely going to come down due to the lack of an elite swing and miss pitch outside of his changeup but Lopez should continue to be an above-average fantasy starter with the current skills improvement. He also gets a two-start week next week (@WAS, TB).
Josh Bell-Pirates-1B
Josh Bell was 0-3 with a strikeout against the Indians. Bell is hitting .197 with 2 HR, 8 R, 9 RBI, and 0 SB. He is struggling mightily and there doesn't seem to be light at the end of the tunnel. His plate discipline has been horrendous (33% K, 5% BB) compared to a year ago (19% K, 12% BB). His O-swing% has jumped from 30% in 2019 to 38% this year. It looks like he is trying to swing himself out of a slump which never works. This is even more concerning coming off a poor second half that saw him hit .233 with a .780 OPS. The batted ball change he made a year ago (+5% FB and +12% Hard) is gone with 50% GB this year. There isn't much to like about Bell and the first half of 2019 is looking more like an outlier instead of a new baseline.
Ian Happ-Cubs-OF
Ian Happ was 2-6 with an HR (6) against the Cardinals. Happ is off to a very strong start to the year (.315 AVG with 6 HR, 13 R, 14 RBI, and 1 SB). He is also leading off on most days which is a nice boost to his value. The strikeout rate is higher than you would like (28% K) but that is part of his game but he is pairing it with 17% BB and 42% Hard which works in today's game. The average is going to come down but should end up in a range that isn't going to hurt you and the power/speed potential makes Happ a desirable asset. Over the course of a full season, 25 HR/10 SB would not be out of the question.
DraftKings Value Plays: OF Starling Marte ARI ($4,000) and OF A.J. Pollock LAD ($3,900)
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