Preseason Player Notes - March 5th, 2020

Dan Nachtigal

Mar 4, 2020

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Should you go with the young righty or the veteran lefty in the desert?

ESPN's 2020 H2H categories rankings has Zac Gallen ranked 40th and Robbie Ray ranked one spot behind him at 41st in their preseason starting pitcher rankings. Both pitchers have solid potential for the 2020 season but will be tough to predict for different reasons.

Zac Gallen is a spry 24-year-old coming off his first stint in the big leagues last season. With just 80 total innings of major league experience to look at, it's difficult to provide a comfortable prediction for Gallen. In his short major league stint last season, he certainly did impress... He posted a 2.81/4.15 ERA/xFIP and gave up less than a homer per nine (.90 HR/9), while toting a solid K-rate of 10.80. Gallen displayed slightly above average velocity on his fastball (93.1 vFA), but what is intriguing is the variety of pitches he already uses to compliment the heater. He mixes in a changeup (16.0%), a slider (15.4%), and a curveball (19.0%) well. It's rare for a youngster to have so much confidence in such an array of pitches and he only had a negative pitch value for one of those four pitches last season (the slider -2.9). Gallen also showed a lot of promise in the Plate Discipline department as well. His O-Swing% (35.1%), Contact% (72.1%), and SwStr% (12.8%) were all well above the major league average for starters last season (31.7%, 77.3%, 10.7%). This is all very positive and there is little to knock the guy for across his first 15 MLB starts, besides a hefty BB-rate of 4.05, but even that is expected and not exactly cause for alarm. The only concern is that he has started just 15 games and that last season was his only stellar season on record, Triple-A included.

Then, on the other hand you have Robbie Ray, who has 790.2 innings across six major league seasons to inspect. Ray primarily uses two pitches: Fastball (51.5% career use), Slider (22.4% career use). He is typically effective with the fastball and very ineffective with his off-speed stuff. However, he did alter his pitching style rather drastically last season. His fastball usage came in at a career low 43.6% and he used his slider at a career high rate of 31.8%. Additionally, over the past few years he has completely dropped the changeup from his arsenal and starting using a curveball (15.5% usage in 2019). The results in 2019 weren't all that positive, but they weren't overwhelmingly negative either. With career highs in O-Swing% (31.5%), and SwStr% (13.6%), Ray was able to post a K-rate over 12 for the 3rd consecutive season (12.3 K/9 - also a career mark). That is top tier strikeout stuff; the big lefties K-rate over the past three seasons trailed just Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer among qualified starters. Unfortunately, Ray continued to battle his control issues last season (4.34 BB/9) and saw his ERA significantly climb for the third straight season as well. In 2017, Ray finished the season with a sparkling 2.89 ERA, last season he finished with 4.34 ERA. Of course, the 2017 ERA isn't particularly telling considering his xFIP was 3.72 that season, which is ironically similar to his 2019 xFIP of 3.76. It's good to see that the 28-year-old is experimenting and trying to figure out how to work his pitches to be more effective, but there isn't anything to suggest he is going to make a significant stride in 2019.

So Gallen is a risker option due to his lack of experience, but there is probably a little more optimism for him to have a #2 starter worthy season. Ray is a safe pick; you have a pretty good idea of what you're going to get. Which in H2H leagues might be more valuable because of his stellar K numbers, consistent innings, and, bonified spot in the rotation.


BOSTON RED SOX


Chris Sale still seeking alternate opinions on his elbow...

The Red Sox ace's elbow felt sore after throwing a live BP on Sunday and went in for an MRI on Monday. He had these results read by Dr. James Andrews, those results were not disclosed with the media. Sale and the Sox were clearly not satisfied with the options as Sale is now set to meet another arm specialist later this week. The name Dr. James Andrews is synonymous with Tommy John Surgery in baseball circles. If that's the case, that would be devastating for the Red Sox, who lost David Price and Rick Porcello in the offseason. It would also be very unfortunate for those fantasy owners who already got Sale in the extremely frisky and impatient leagues. Nothing is for sure yet, but this is certainly not a good look for Sale's 2020 campaign. You'd have to expect he is going to miss at least a couple of months even in the most positive of scenarios.


This news all but guarantees Hector Velazquez another shot in the Sox rotation. The 31-year-old has started 11 games for the Sox over the past few years but has mainly been used out of the pen. This is probably because he boasts a career 2.99/4.56 ERA/xFIP out of the pen compared to his 5.27/5.28 as a starter. Velazquez's 4.05 BB/9 (+1.24 from pen rate) and his opponent wOBA of .369 (+.058) as a starter also isn't indicative of much effectiveness in the starting role. He has proven to be useful out of the pen, but maybe if he gets a chance to settle into the role a little bit this season, he can translate some of that bullpen success into starter success.



TORONTO BLUE JAYS


Randal Grichuk has hit at least 22 homers in each of the past four seasons, including 31 in 2019, but has mainly digressed in every other statistical category. His average dipped to .232 (.242 career) last season as he continued his pull-centric (47.1% Pull%), flyball (42.1% FB%) heavy ways. His wOBA was an ugly .307 and uglier still was his 90 wRC+ (a career low). Despite supplanting his career home run mark by six, Grichuk managed to post his worst ISO (.225) since 2014, which was before he was a regular starter. Grichuk had lofty expectations as a youngster and it might be time to face the fact that he isn't going to make that next step. He still strikes out a lot (26% K%) and hasn't improved on his walk rate (5.6% BB%). There are a lot of youngsters lying in wait behind Grichuk in Toronto. It wouldn't be surprising if he spent the better part of the 2020 season riding the pine.

Joe Panik, once a promising young player for the Giants, has fallen from grace and is now fighting for playing time scraps on a deep Blue Jays infield. Hopefully, a solid spring will propel him into some sort role for the regular season. He is 5 for 9, with a homer, and three walks so far this spring. Unfortunately, it's going to take a lot more than that for Panik to propel himself into a starting role during the 2020 season. He is probably going to need the aid of a couple injuries to even get a shot to prove himself. Panik is a subpar contact hitter in a power-hungry league, so the odds are already stacked against him...and Panik's recent play doesn't improve those odds as he hasn't hit for a decent average in two full seasons. He did slash an impressive .288/.347/.421 back in 2017, but his sub .255 averages the past two seasons have basically rendered him irrelevant for both fantasy and real baseball purposes.


AROUND THE LEAGUE

Beyond Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, which veteran starting pitcher in Minnesota has the most fantasy potential?

Kenta Maeda, Michael Pineda, or, Rich Hill?

Assuming Minnesota's offense is somewhat as potent as it was last season there will be plenty of wins to be had and innings to be eaten up by these veteran hurlers. There are reasons to be optimistic for each of these pitchers, but of course, they are quite flawed as well...

Kenta Maeda

Reasons to be optimistic: durability and consistency.

Maeda has pitched at least 125 innings in each of the four seasons. He has been placed on the 10-day IL/DL just three times in his career and has never missed more than two weeks of action due to injury. His career ERA sits at 3.87 while his xFIP sits at 3.76, very solid numbers for a middle to end of the rotation starter. He has never had an ERA north of 4.22 or an xFIP north of 4.04--last year's average for starters was 4.54 and 4.48, respectively. Additionally, Maeda has never posted a K/BB ratio lower than 3.31 (2019 average starter: 2.89) and he has a career SwStr% of 13.2% (2019 average starter: 10.7%).

Potential flaws: Not in LA

Minnesota is Maeda's first team transition and he has never been good outside of Dodger Stadium. Over his career his ERA at Dodger stadium is 3.32, while his ERA anywhere else is 4.54. His home/away xFIP numbers are less severe: 3.62/3.91, but still significant. Dodger Stadium's Basic (5yr) "Park Factor" of 96 is in the bottom fourth of the league (meaning it's pitcher friendly), while Target Field's rating of 101 ranks in the top third.

Outlook:
Middle of the rotation pitchers that can keep their ERA around 4.00, have above average K-Rates, and collect double digit wins are useful in most fantasy formats. Maeda is typically a good bet to do those three things, but obviously the move to Target Field casts a large shadow on that.


Michael Pineda

Reasons to be optimistic: past success and last 11 starts of 2019.

Big Mike has shown glimpses of brilliance in the past and put together a couple decent seasons pitching for the Yankees in a tough home ballpark. In 2014 he posted a miniscule 1.89 ERA (3.37 xFIP) and showed incredible control with a .83 BB/9, however, it came in just 76.1 innings due to injury. He was healthier the next two seasons and was able to log over 160 innings in each campaign. His ERAs weren't as sterling those seasons (4.37 and 4.82), but his xFIPs were very solid (2.95 and 3.30); something that Yankee pitchers are prone to doing. Pineda then battled injuries for a few more seasons before he finally found himself again at the end of last season for the Twins. Over his last 11 starts, Pineda went 7-1 with a 2.76/3.78 ERA/xFIP and boasted a K-rate of 10.06 (1.05 K/9 better than his career average).

Potential flaws: suspension and injury risk

Pineda will start the season continuing his 60 game PED suspension he received last September. So, he will be out roughly five weeks to start the 2020 campaign, which will set him behind the eight ball and give him less time to work the kinks out early in the season. Something that he might need considering how little he has pitched the past few years and how long it took him to get going in 2019. Pineda has also struggled to stay on the field during his professional career due to countless injuries, including a Tommy John surgery and a torn meniscus that cost him his entire 2018 season. In all, injuries have kept Pineda sidelined more than half the season in four of his last seven seasons.

Outlook:
Even if he manages to stay healthy, Pineda is getting older (31), and all the previous injuries will certainly cap is potential. Last season's strong finish is encouraging, but the potential for injury outweighs the potential he possesses if he does stay healthy.


Rich Hill

Reasons to be optimistic: career stats and southpaw

Hill has been a solid pitcher for the bulk of his 15-year MLB career. Posting an ERA (3.82) and xFIP (3.93) under 4.00 across nearly 1,000 innings doesn't happen by accident. What's more is that the southpaw has been able to stay effective the past few seasons despite being in the twilight of his career. Over the last four seasons, Hill has posted a 3.00/3.63 ERA/xFIP and 1.08 WHIP, to go along with a 10.64 K/9 and a .206 opponent average. His highest innings count was just 135.2 during that span, but he also only failed to get to over 100 innings once, which was last season. The other thing that should benefit Hill is that he is a lefty and the Twins have zero left-handed starters in their rotation at the moment. They might decide to use him out of the pen, but with question marks at the bottom of the rotation, Hill could find himself a starting spot and would be worth fantasy consideration at that point.

Potential flaws: age/injury and spot in the rotation

At 39, with a long injury history, and starting the season shelved for at least a few months, it's hard to talk about rostering Hill at this point. Additionally, Hill will probably be coming out of the bullpen when he does return, which would render him all but useless for fantasy purposes.

Outlook:
Once he comes back, he will probably be worth an acquisition. You'll have injuries by that time in the year and your pitching staff will certainly have some holes. I think the Twins will want him in the rotation once he works his way back to health and a half a season is about all he can give at this point in his career anyways. So, it's not a bad idea to nab him up when he's about to return, if you have room, and give him a few weeks to get into the rotation. When he pitches, he is effective, so he should be rostered in most formats once he's back.


Conclusion:

Maeda should be the most valuable and safe pitcher of the bunch in real-life baseball, but not in fantasy. It's hard to see him out doing his LA stats, which weren't amazing, in Minnesota. Pineda is one big question mark and probably won't be worth grabbing before he proves himself in at least a couple consecutive starts. Hill is the most intriguing of the bunch for me. Obviously, we are looking at bare end of the roster guys here, and Hill possesses the ability to give you that, and then some, for half a season if things go right. It's a stretch, but he'll be worth the gamble if your pitching staff isn't very deep once he becomes available.

Oscar Mercado, OF, CLE

Mercado received his first big league playing time last season; where he proved himself well enough to garner 104 starts and 482 plate appearances for Terry Francona's Cleveland Indians. The 25-year-old finished the campaign slashing .269/.318/.443, with a .321 wOBA, and a below average wRC+ of 95. Those numbers do little to impress, but he did steal 15 bases and provided decent pop (43 XBH, 15 HR). The youngster just seemed to wear out a little bit down the stretch, which is not at all uncommon for a rookie. Over his first 335 plate appearances, Mercado hit .288 with a .333 wOBA; while he hit just .233 with a .292 wOBA over his last 147 plate appearances. Positively, despite his dwindling production, Mercado's plate discipline actually improved down the stretch. During his last 147 PA, his O-Swing%, Z-Contact%, and SwStr% all saw improvements from his first 335 PA; most significantly his O-Swing% dropped 3.0% and his Z-Contact% improved by 6.0%. Mercado was unable to turn this into success at the plate because he was "swinging for the fences" more than he was previously. During those last 147 plate appearances, his Pull% increased 5.5% and his FB% increased 3.5%.
In 2020, he is expected to bat 2nd for the Indians, meaning between Lindor and Santana/Ramirez, which is certainly a desirable and potentially productive spot. So, if you attribute his drop-off down the stretch to inexperience and fatigue, like I do, Mercado should be on your fantasy radar.


Roberto Perez, C, CLE

Perez played in his first spring game on Saturday and has since played in three more games behind the plate for the Indians. The 31-year-old backstop had arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs in his right ankle after last season in October. He reportedly sustained the injury just after the All-Star break and dealt with it for the rest of the season. Despite the injury Perez still put up career numbers in 2019, including games played and plate appearances. For the season he hit 24 homers, 16 more than his previous high, but finished with just a .239 AVG and .326 wOBA. However, his numbers before the All-Star break (and injury) were very good, especially for a catcher. He slashed .256/.345/.527, with 16 homers and a .361 wOBA that ranked 4th among catchers during that span (min 230 PA). Catchers are always dinged up, but if he can keep himself healthy in 2020, it will be interesting to see how he builds upon his breakout season. ESPN currently has him ranked 20th in their 2020 H2H rankings, which he was well outpacing before his injury last season.


Salvador Perez, C, Royals

On Friday, Perez caught in his first game since September 26th, 2018. He missed the entire 2019 season after getting Tommy John surgery done on his throwing elbow just before the season. He should be a full go for the start of this season and will be an interesting prospect at a shallow catcher position for 2020. Prior to his injury he was coming off four consecutive 20+ home run campaigns, a stretch in which he homered eight more times than any other catcher in the majors. With a career 3.5% BB% and 16% K%, which were actually worse during his last full season in 2018, Perez figures to still be very boom or bust up at the plate...but if he can get anywhere near his career .266/.297/.442 slash averages, with around 20 homers, he should be a viable fantasy option.


Caleb Smith, SP, MIA

2019 marked Smith's first full season as a starter in the major leagues. He finished with an uninspiring, albeit decent, final stat line. The southpaw went 10-11, with a 4.52/5.05 ERA/xFIP and a 2.8 K/BB ratio, across 151.1 innings. Smith started off his 2019 campaign strong and was a nice pickup for fantasy owners for the first half of the season; but then he REALLY fell off after the All-Star break. Over the first half he posted a 3.50/3.90 ERA/xFIP while striking out 11 batters per nine innings. The 11.0 K/9 rate was the 11th highest ratio among qualified starters for the first half of the season, better than big names such as: Justin Verlander, Stephen Strasburg, and, Luis Castillo. Unfortunately, Smith was unable to withstand the rigors of a full season, and he labored heavily throughout the second half. He posted a 5.42/6.07 ERA/xFIP and his K-rate dropped to just 8.85 K/9. Smith's struggles can be contributed to his lack of command. His walk rate was a hefty 4.21 during the second half of the season while it was just 2.63 during the first half. Both his O-Swing% (-4.2%), and SwStr% (-3.5%), were significantly worse post All-Star break; so, he was falling behind hitters more often and was much less effective in general. His fastball velocity was a mile per hour slower during the second half, a sign that he was wearing down, and his inability to get ahead in the count forced him to use the fastball much more often than he was during his more effective first half (49.5 FB% vs 57.2 FB%).
It was his first full season, and he is just 28 years old, so there is certainly reason to be optimistic for Smith in 2020. He is the ace of the Marlins staff and is definitely the most trustworthy fantasy pitcher on their roster.


Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIA

The Marlins acquired Aguilar in the offseason to fill their void at first base and to hopefully give them some much needed pop in the middle of the order. The Marlins ranked dead last in home runs in 2019, so taking a chance on Aguilar--despite his porous 2019 numbers--makes sense. He hit 35 bombs in 2018, while maintaining a solid .274 average and .374 wOBA. That season is currently an outlier in the big man's career so it's hard to say if it's repeatable. Between the Brewers and Rays last season Aguilar slashed .236/.325/.389, with just 12 long balls in 389 plate appearances. He did significantly improve his O-Swing% (29.9%) and SwStr% (10.7%) in 2019 from his 2018 campaign (35.6% and 12.4% respectively), which in turn improved both his walk and strikeout ratio. Unfortunately, he had a hard time getting the ball in the air in 2019. His LD% was 3.7% lower and his GB% was 6.7% higher last season. Additionally, his HR/FB ratio of 13.2 in '19 was drastically lower than his 23.8 mark in 2018.
It's unlikely that Aguilar puts up the kinds of numbers he did during his breakout season, but having a fulltime starting gig again means he could have some value. Of course, first base is typically a very deep fantasy position, so you should have plenty of time to evaluate him in the free agency before deciding to roster him or not.

Daniel Murphy, 1B, COL

A move to Coors Field had many fantasy owners (me) excited for Murphy to have a bounce back season in 2019. That did not happen. Murph fractured an index finger in just the second game of the season which forced him to miss nearly a month of action. He was then required to wear a splint upon his return and the injury lingered with him for much of the season. Hand/finger injuries are devastating for hitters and a full offseason is often needed for them to fully regain strength and confidence in their swing. Murphy is getting up there in age (turns 35 on April 1st), but considering he didn't become a fantasy consideration until after he was 30, suggests he may age well. Last season, Murphy posted his highest K% of his career (15.5%), and had a 39.7% GB%, which is 2.2% higher than he has posted in any season since his breakout in the 2015 postseason. Murphy credits his career turnaround in 2015/16 to an optimization of the launch angle of his swing. Obviously, he wasn't getting that preferred launch angle last season. In all, he was only top-notch hitter for two full seasons (2016 and 2017), but both 2018 and 2019 were injury-riddled seasons, so I remain optimistic. All the reports out of spring training indicate that the 34-year-old is in great shape and is primed for a bounce back campaign. If he can stay healthy in 2020, he will rake; he'll hit above .300 and smack a minimum of 20 homers. Of course, injury issues might just be a theme for Murph for the rest of his career, so buyer beware.

Didi Gregorius, SS, PHI

The 30-year-old Gregorius signed a one-year deal with the Phillies this offseason. Didi was coming off of three-straight 20+ homer seasons for the Yankees before failing to reach that mark last season due to injury. He had Tommy John surgery in October of 2018 which cost him the first 61 games of the 2019 season and limited him to just 344 plate appearances. Gregorius' home run prowess made him a solid fantasy SS the past few seasons, but his move away from Yankee Stadium is quite alarming. Yankee Stadium is a left-hander's haven, it has been the most homer-friendly park for lefties since it opened in 2009, and almost all of Gregorius' fantasy value comes from the long ball. He is a free-swinger; his 41.1% O-Swing% in 2019 was the 20th highest across the majors (min 300 PA), and he doesn't walk very much (career 5.9% BB%). Additionally, he pulls the ball in the air A LOT--42.1% Pull% and 44.1% FB% last season. Citizens Bank Park isn't as friendly for pull-heavy lefties as Yankee Stadium is, but its park factor did rank 6th best for HR as L in 2018, so the change shouldn't completely diminish Gregorius' fantasy value.

Our Player Projections model was created and is maintained by our founder and lead Statistician Anthony Perri. Using advanced and cutting edge Sabermetric indicators, which now include velocity indicators on batted balls, our player projections are trusted for accuracy by several Major League Baseball front offices. Over the past 21 years, we have correctly forecast the statistical direction on over 7 out of 10 professional baseball players for their upcoming season. If you are ready to Dominate your Fantasy Baseball Draft, click here to register today.

Our Player Projections model was created and is maintained by our founder and lead Statistician Anthony Perri. Using advanced and cutting edge Sabermetric indicators, which now include velocity indicators on batted balls, our player projections are trusted for accuracy by several Major League Baseball front offices. Over the past 21 years, we have correctly forecast the statistical direction on over 7 out of 10 professional baseball players for their upcoming season. If you are ready to Dominate your Fantasy Baseball Draft, click here to register today.